Bracketology - Let's Do This

[slugboy]

It's a great day to root for Oklahoma and LSU

Kinda hard to pull for that LSU coach

 

[GT_EE78]

Kinda hard to pull for that LSU coach

yea i get that
hope LSU wins and coach whatshisname misses the game
(note - i didnt say anything about the virus or where-ever it came from)

 

[ESPNjacket]

Oregon State recreated the whole Hoosiers scene measuring the baskets. I figured one of the teams playing at Hinkle would do that.

Been such a fun tournament to this point.

Frankly fans need to stop bitching about the ACC seeds. The ACC didn't look very strong this year. At least to my eye test. Who looked like a really good team in the ACC this season? I'm not sure a single team in the ACC looked like a really good team all season.
Now the ACC was affected more by COVID then most conferences and I think that really hurt this year - I believe it was something like 23rd out of 31 conferences in terms of games missed.
As I said before the seeding was released I would have likely put Clemson higher than GT - though not by 2 seeds, they likely would have been on the same seed line for me. The difference in their 2 resumes was that OOC Clemson had wins over AL and Purdue while GT had losses to Mercer and Ga St.

This year was always going to be about who got lucky in terms of COVID and who got unlucky. ACC as a conference was very unlucky. And that included going into the NCAA with 2 teams being seriously impacted by COVID.

Did the ACC get great seeds? no. But did it deserve better seeds? Overall based on its body of work not really.

This year was arguably going to be the hardest year ever for the Committee to seed the Tourney with a greatly reduced number of OOC games that allows you to compare who across conferences. That of course also negatively effects the various metrics.

Based on the 6 metrics that the Committee looks at, GT avg out to a 33.5. So the 8/9 slot was exactly where GT should have been based on the metrics. My hope was the Committee would look at who was playing well at the end of the season and adjust, but true to what they have done for the last decade where they did away with the last 10 games metric and said every game counts the same, we didn't get a bump higher. Of course, GT got unlucky with a draw that put them in the first round against a team that was underseeded. Based on those same metrics Loyola should have been a 6. But in the end i'm not sure how much all that would have mattered missing Moses. That was just a killer.

B10 was quite clearly overrated. That basically came about because of the ACC-B10 challenge. B10 'best' teams beat up on the ACC 'best' teams (who ended up not really even being the ACC's best teams) and that basically stuck the story for the year.

Syracuse and their zone and 3-pt shooting have been something to see these first 2 rounds. It is ironic. If you play in the conference with them and so play against them every year playing against the zone isn't really that big of deal. Like every defense it has weaknesses. But playing it on short notice just seems like it throws teams for loops. Of course their insane shooting is also a huge part of the story. Through 2 games they are taking almost 60% of their shots from three and have hit 50% of them (29-58). Their issue is going to be the game that will come when they don't shoot well from three.

Already 3 double digit seeds and an 8 in to the Sweet Sixteen. Only 3 protected seeds (1-4) made it through this half of the bracket. At least one more double digit seed will make it through (we have an 11-14 game today), and as many as 3 could.

You, and the committee, are not placing any value on winning a conference championship. In the misguided desire to compare conferences with limited data they placed MORE value on early, out of conference games than on clearly more important conference games and even more important conference championships.

There was no perfect way to do it this year for obvious reasons, but placing more weight on December games than March games is a bad idea. GT's self-shaft became the double self-shaft.

 

[orientalnc]

LSU is one of the SEC teams I really have a hard time pulling for. If they are playing Notre Dame or Ohio State in football, I have to hold my nose. It has not been as bad in basketball, but close.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

LSU is one of the SEC teams I really have a hard time pulling for. If they are playing Notre Dame or Ohio State in football, I have to hold my nose. It has not been as bad in basketball, but close.

My favorite thing about LSU basketball in recent history was when coach Will Wade was caught on wire taps by the FBI discussing the payment of players. The University obviously initiated an investigation, and the coach refused to cooperate. He should have been fired on the spot. But what did the University do when he refused to speak with them - they gave him a contract extension. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

 

[GT_EE78]

My favorite thing about LSU basketball in recent history was when coach Will Wade was caught on wire taps by the FBI discussing the payment of players. The University obviously initiated an investigation, and the coach refused to cooperate. He should have been fired on the spot. But what did the University do when he refused to speak with them - they gave him a contract extension. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Eat your heart out Bruce Pearl

 

[MWBATL]

My favorite thing about LSU basketball in recent history was when coach Will Wade was caught on wire taps by the FBI discussing the payment of players. The University obviously initiated an investigation, and the coach refused to cooperate. He should have been fired on the spot. But what did the University do when he refused to speak with them - they gave him a contract extension. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

LSU is the most honest program in college athletics. NCAA complains and LSU's answer is "yup, so what? Whatchya goin' to do 'bout it?"

Gotta admire the gumption.

 

[jeffgt14]

It's not just the ACC they got shafted in seeding. The PAC-12 did too. Purdue got a 4 seed for nothing other than beating OSU who is in their own conference twice. Oregon sat atop the PAC-12 in the regular season losing to only 1 team that didn't make the tournament and got a 7 seed. If you ranked the top 6 teams in the PAC-12 the way they ranked the BIG-10, Oregon, USC, Colorado, and UCLA would all be seeded higher than a 4.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

It's not just the ACC they got shafted in seeding. The PAC-12 did too. Purdue got a 4 seed for nothing other than beating OSU who is in their own conference twice. Oregon sat atop the PAC-12 in the regular season losing to only 1 team that didn't make the tournament and got a 7 seed. If you ranked the top 6 teams in the PAC-12 the way they ranked the BIG-10, Oregon, USC, Colorado, and UCLA would all be seeded higher than a 4.

100%.

Colorado averages #12 in the various ratings, so should have been a 3 seed and got a 5 seed.
USC averages #13, so should have been a 3-4 seed and got a 6.
etc

And that's even if they went off of ratings that we've all discussed aren't very good this year.

On a side note, I notice the ACC is ranked 3rd in Sagarin:

College basketball conference ratings - 2020-21 - Jeff Sagarin Ratings

College basketball conference ratings for the 2020-21 season as calculated by the computer rating system created by Jeff Sagarin.

sagarin.usatoday.com

Its just been a weird year where the analyst folks take models they supposedly use, which appear to devalue certain conferences, and then they even devalue them more. Bizarre.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

LSU is the most honest program in college athletics. NCAA complains and LSU's answer is "yup, so what? Whatchya goin' to do 'bout it?"

Gotta admire the gumption.

And its reinforced when people are handing out money to players on national TV and nothing happens.

 

[JDjacket]

Pac-12 revenge tour continuing as Iowa and Oregon tried to hit the O/U in the first half alone.

 

[RamblinRed]

Not too much defense in the Iowa-OR game so far.
Both teams shooting over 50% and OR 7-14 from three.

 

[RamblinRed]

You, and the committee, are not placing any value on winning a conference championship. In the misguided desire to compare conferences with limited data they placed MORE value on early, out of conference games than on clearly more important conference games and even more important conference championships.

There was no perfect way to do it this year for obvious reasons, but placing more weight on December games than March games is a bad idea. GT's self-shaft became the double self-shaft.

That's all true, but i'm trying to stay close to what the Committee says it does.

as I said at the time we were talking about seeding I though GT deserved a 7 but would probably get an 8/9.
The Committee used to put more weight on late season and Conference Tourney's but they have basically done away with that.

 

[GT_EE78]

That's all true, but i'm trying to stay close to what the Committee says it does.

as I said at the time we were talking about seeding I though GT deserved a 7 but would probably get an 8/9.
The Committee used to put more weight on late season and Conference Tourney's but they have basically done away with that.

I don't remember when this occurred but i think it was early nineties when media started complaining loudly that there were too many P5's and not enough mid-majors getting at-large berths. And that P5's padded their W-L records by refusing to schedule tough mid-majors. I don't know if that net thang hurts or helps . I don't recall any time period when the selection committee was transparent.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

You're defending the exact argument people have poked holes in. If you believe the ratings systems, the ACC didn't get underrated and get unfair seeds. And that's the exact point. It wasn't too long ago that 9 of the top 13 teams were in the Big Ten in those ratings systems. I don't recall anybody here denying the Big Ten was likely the best conference this year or that the ACC was having a down year.

But here's where the rubber meets the road. Ohio State has 10 losses. They got a #2 seed. Illinois has 7 losses. They got a #1 seed. Wisconsin has 13 losses and they got a #7 seed.

Louisville has 7 losses and didn't even get into the tournament. Florida State has 6 losses and got a #4 seed. The ACC has 8 teams with as many losses as Ohio State or less. Of, if you want to look at win percentage, Ohio State's is 0.6774. The ACC has 7 teams within 0.02 of that or higher.

And to put icing on the cake, Loyola should never have been in a first round game with an ACC team, even if the ACC seeds were fair. A lot of tough draws for teams that deserved better breaks.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

And to put icing on the cake, Loyola should never have been in a first round game with an ACC team, even if the ACC seeds were fair. A lot of tough draws for teams that deserved better breaks.

Yup, 100%. Going into the tournament, Loyola was ranked #17 (#16 in the coaches poll). That implies a 4 or 5 seed. Their average rating across KenPom/NET/Sagarin is 15. That implies a 3 or 4 seed.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Big Ten #2 seed Iowa losing by 18 points with 5 minutes left, LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

The number of predicted wins in the tournament by the Big Ten if everything went straight seed was 18. They currently have 6 wins and will soon be down to 2 teams left: Michigan (1 seed), and Maryland (a #10 who has to play #2 Alabama today). If Maryland loses and Michigan wins the entire tournament, the Big Ten will still only end up with barely half the wins they should have gotten. Imagine if Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Maryland didn't each upset and win 1 game. Would have been an even worse disaster, having lost a #1, two #2s, and a #4 in the very first game or two.

 

[ESPNjacket]

That's all true, but i'm trying to stay close to what the Committee says it does.

as I said at the time we were talking about seeding I though GT deserved a 7 but would probably get an 8/9.
The Committee used to put more weight on late season and Conference Tourney's but they have basically done away with that.

I agree that's what they did.

 

[awbuzz]

Appears that Iowa will be saying goodbye to the tournament.

 

[Pointer]

Unless you're arguing for Pac-12, I don't want to hear any complaining about seeding.