Bracketology - Let's Do This

[tsrich]

bracketmatrix has us as an 11 seed
clem 6, Vt 8, NC/Lou at 10
we should pass a few of those after beating WF and a decent ACCT
I'm also good with any seed except 8 or 9

Clem as a 6?

Both Clem and VT feel like first round losses

 

[MWBATL]

I also do NOT want an 8 or 9 seed because then we'd face a #1 seed in our second round game (assuming we win the first game, of course...not a given). There looks ot me like a pretty steep drop-off form #1 seeds to those beneath them this year.....

 

[forensicbuzz]

I also do NOT want an 8 or 9 seed because then we'd face a #1 seed in our second round game (assuming we win the first game, of course...not a given). There looks ot me like a pretty steep drop-off form #1 seeds to those beneath them this year.....

I'd rather get a #1 seed early and on short rest. We seem to do okay on short rest and have tremendous stamina. Once we topple a #1 seed, we become the defacto #1 seed.

 

[CuseJacket]

I'd rather get a #1 seed early and on short rest. We seem to do okay on short rest and have tremendous stamina. Once we topple a #1 seed, we become the defacto #1 seed.

1 seeds are generally not on "short rest" at that time, following their scrimmage two days prior that has little game pressure.

Give me the 10 or 11 seed and we'll take on the 1 seed on short rest the second weekend, if they haven't already been discarded.

 

[forensicbuzz]

1 seeds are generally not on "short rest" at that time, following their scrimmage two days prior that has little game pressure.

Give me the 10 or 11 seed and we'll take on the 1 seed on short rest the second weekend, if they haven't already been discarded.

Either way I don't really care. I'd take on a #1 seed to open the tourney. This team can play with anyone in the country. If we're going to play Gonzaga or Baylor, I'd rather our guys be fully rested too.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I do not believe we are a top team, but other than Gonzaga or Baylor I do not think there is a team in the country we cannot beat when we are playing well. I am not too concerned about our seeding. I see the benefit of of a 7 versus an 8 or 9, but I am OK wherever and whomever we play in the dance.

I agree we are not a top team.

But having said that, here are all of our 6 Quad 1 and Quad 2 losses combined (they are all Quad 1) along with how the teams were ranked at the time:
On the road @ #15 Florida State
On the road @ #12 Virginia
On the road @ Duke
On the road @ #25 Louisville
On the road @ #28 Clemson on 1 day of rest
Home against #19 Virginia

There's really only 1 potentially disappointing outcome there, but its not like winning @ Cameron is easy.

 

[orientalnc]

1 seeds are generally not on "short rest" at that time, following their scrimmage two days prior that has little game pressure.

Give me the 10 or 11 seed and we'll take on the 1 seed on short rest the second weekend, if they haven't already been discarded.

I had not given this much thought or done any research until this topic emerged here today. A 1 seed has lost to a 16 seed 1 time in 39 years of a 64 team bracket. It was close twice in 1989 where the 1 seed barely hung on to win by a point. But, close games are rare.

In that same time span a 2 seed has lost 8 times and a 3 seed has lost 21 times.

While it is not likely a high seed will loose and the next round team gets a patsy, I don't think it's normally a scrimmage game. Definitely, there have been blowouts, but freaky things can happen in the tournament and a 1 seed cannot think of it as a walk. UMBC beat UVA by 20 points in 2018.

 

[GTbball2016]

Richmond officially not a bubble threat anymore

 

[CuseJacket]

I had not given this much thought or done any research until this topic emerged here today. A 1 seed has lost to a 16 seed 1 time in 39 years of a 64 team bracket. It was close twice in 1989 where the 1 seed barely hung on to win by a point. But, close games are rare.

In that same time span a 2 seed has lost 8 times and a 3 seed has lost 21 times.

While it is not likely a high seed will loose and the next round team gets a patsy, I don't think it's normally a scrimmage game. Definitely, there have been blowouts, but freaky things can happen in the tournament and a 1 seed cannot think of it as a walk. UMBC beat UVA by 20 points in 2018.

I agree the 1 seed has to show up. In fact, I lost a bet where I took the side of a 1 seed getting upset at some point in a 5 year span. After I lost that bet, Virginia got upset 2 years later.

My main point was, that game is almost always a 15+ spread with no game pressure on the backend.

And frankly the idea of "short rest" in the NCAAT is just not a significant factor anyway, since it's the same circumstance for everyone. TV timeouts are longer (at least used to be) and while a team may get gassed, it's not because of what happened 48 hours prior. That 1 seed will be just fine heading into game 2 with little to no effect from the prior game.

 

[CuseJacket]

Also there's really no justification for wanting to face a 1-seed early. Every year there's a drop off after the first several teams. Let others take a crack and do the dirty work and hope their 10-15% chance at success works first.

Re: we're "hot". Some devil's advocate perspective: during our current 5 game win streak, we beat one tournament team (VT). VT was vulnerable for a variety of reasons (Covid break, injuries, lack of practice). We didn't blow the doors off teams that are outside looking in, at home (Cuse, Duke). We won as NCAAT teams do. That's great. Doesn't make us "hot". Miami was a dumpster.

We are so far from being in the ballpark of Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan. Can we beat them? Yes. But there is nothing that materially differentiates us vs. the masses that'll be seeded 6-12 and have been generally flicked aside by that bunch.

To be clear, I like our guys and am ready to roll with them. I will go into every game knowing we can win. But the 1 seeds are in a different class that greatly reduces our odds of success.

 

[lv20gt]

The further you can delay having to play the 1 seeds the more chances there are that someone knocks them off before you play them. Same thing with a #2. So the seed that we can most likely get that pushes those games off is an 11 seed. If we were winning the #2 would have to win 2 games before we'd have to face them and the #1 three games. Obviously we would hope to avoid a play in game though. That's actually what happened in our championship game run. We were a 3 seed instead of an 11 but in the same spot in the bracket more or less. The #10 seed beat the #2 that year (ironically Gonzaga) and the #9 beat the #1 that year

 

[GTbball2016]

I think Illinois is the team we’d struggle with the most. We’d have no answer for Kofi camping out all game in the lane. I think we match up well vs Gonzaga.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Also there's really no justification for wanting to face a 1-seed early. Every year there's a drop off after the first several teams. Let others take a crack and do the dirty work and hope their 10-15% chance at success works first.

Re: we're "hot". Some devil's advocate perspective: during our current 5 game win streak, we beat one tournament team (VT). VT was vulnerable for a variety of reasons (Covid break, injuries, lack of practice). We didn't blow the doors off teams that are outside looking in, at home (Cuse, Duke). We won as NCAAT teams do. That's great. Doesn't make us "hot". Miami was a dumpster.

We are so far from being in the ballpark of Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan. Can we beat them? Yes. But there is nothing that materially differentiates us vs. the masses that'll be seeded 6-12 and have been generally flicked aside by that bunch.

To be clear, I like our guys and am ready to roll with them. I will go into every game knowing we can win. But the 1 seeds are in a different class that greatly reduces our odds of success.

I know you said you were just being devils advocate on our streak, but I'm taking the bait.

We lost to Clemson on the road when we had 1 day off while they had a week off to rest and prepare. We lost because a missed shot at the buzzer ricocheted in. Clemson's NET rating is 36.

Then we played Pittsburgh on 1 day of rest while they had a week off to rest and prepare. Pittsburgh was playing well then and had just beat Virginia Tech and only lost to Virginia by 7 on the road - it was neck and neck against Virginia.

Then we played Miami, who is terrible. But my God, it was 48-18 at half time. Its how we beat them that is important.

Then we beat Virginia Tech on the road. Yes they have an asterisk next to them, but they will finish 3rd in the ACC and are ranked.

Then we beat Syracuse, who is actually a strong team. After losing to us, when they could have easily given up, they beat both North Carolina and Clemson. They beat Clemson on 1 day off while Clemson had a week to rest and prepare.

Then we beat Duke, who has been up and down, but their 8 conference losses are by an average of 3.5 points.

 

[lv20gt]

Since halftime of the ND game we're hot. There really shouldn't be any dispute over that.

The issue that what we consider hot isn't hot for Gonzaga, Baylor, or Michigan. Our 5 game winning streak is awesome, and for our program particularly noteworthy.

Here is Gonzaga's opening schedule (not including the back to back homegames against Northwestern state). They beat Kansas by 32, Auburn by 23, WVU by 5, Iowa by 11, and UVA by 23. That's gonzaga hot.

 

[GTbball2016]

Michigan might have just played the worst game a top 2 team has ever played. Personally I think they peaked a while ago and have benefitted from the overrating of the Big 10.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Since halftime of the ND game we're hot. There really shouldn't be any dispute over that.

The issue that what we consider hot isn't hot for Gonzaga, Baylor, or Michigan. Our 5 game winning streak is awesome, and for our program particularly noteworthy.

Here is Gonzaga's opening schedule (not including the back to back homegames against Northwestern state). They beat Kansas by 32, Auburn by 23, WVU by 5, Iowa by 11, and UVA by 23. That's gonzaga hot.

I watched that Virginia game against Gonzaga. It was over with about 30 minutes left in the game. Gonzaga's bench got over an hour of playing time. It was like watching a division 1 team play a division 3 team.

 

[orientalnc]

Also there's really no justification for wanting to face a 1-seed early. Every year there's a drop off after the first several teams. Let others take a crack and do the dirty work and hope their 10-15% chance at success works first.

Re: we're "hot". Some devil's advocate perspective: during our current 5 game win streak, we beat one tournament team (VT). VT was vulnerable for a variety of reasons (Covid break, injuries, lack of practice). We didn't blow the doors off teams that are outside looking in, at home (Cuse, Duke). We won as NCAAT teams do. That's great. Doesn't make us "hot". Miami was a dumpster.

We are so far from being in the ballpark of Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan. Can we beat them? Yes. But there is nothing that materially differentiates us vs. the masses that'll be seeded 6-12 and have been generally flicked aside by that bunch.

To be clear, I like our guys and am ready to roll with them. I will go into every game knowing we can win. But the 1 seeds are in a different class that greatly reduces our odds of success.

I want to be seeded as high as possible, but I think we are looking at a 10 or 11 seed unless we're still playing on Saturday of the ACC Tournament.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I want to be seeded as high as possible, but I think we are looking at a 10 or 11 seed unless we're still playing on Saturday of the ACC Tournament.

Time to get greedy. I'm totally fine with being a 10 or 11...if we make the semis or beyond, hopefully it will be enough to skip 8/9 seed and go all the way to 7. Getting to 17-9 might be enough to skip.

 

[BuzzStone]

Its so nice to be able to discuss what seed we will be, what seed we should be and who we will play. Been to long

 

[GTbball2016]

I watched that Virginia game against Gonzaga. It was over with about 30 minutes left in the game. Gonzaga's bench got over an hour of playing time. It was like watching a division 1 team play a division 3 team.

Gonzaga has really struggled in the first ten minutes of games lately. Another team that peaked way too early.