Bracketology - Let's Do This

[Deleted member 2897]

Although, if you’re going to argue that computer models don’t catch everything, last night is a good example .

Duke is a 5* team, playing for their NCAA lives, giving us their best desperation shot. Or PG is hobbling, we still win, and the computer poll is “meh”.

No worries—Wake Forest is now the most important game of the regular season.

exactly. This game is the perfect example of how you could go undefeated and still have a #40 NET rating. The good news is as we all know, the NET rating is only one small piece of what they look at. They won’t publish what their full criteria is, but we at least know what it’s not.

 

[GT11]

Yeah. We barely move up and Duke stays where they were

Kissing K’s a@@

 

[lv20gt]

Although, if you’re going to argue that computer models don’t catch everything, last night is a good example .

Duke is a 5* team, playing for their NCAA lives, giving us their best desperation shot. Or PG is hobbling, we still win, and the computer poll is “meh”.

No worries—Wake Forest is now the most important game of the regular season.

Well to be fair, the computers also missed us putting on a performance that should probably warrant accusations of point shaving (kidding obviously). This game was huge because of the situation of being on the bubble and the name of our opponent (not the quality) and is a big win for those reason. However it's not exactly a win I would point to and say, see, we're top 25. And not just the sloppy play at the end, but the poor ball pressure allowing far too many easy lobs, settling for too many threes without movement, carelessness with the ball, etc.

Also, Duke has a bunch of 5* recruits. They aren't a 5* team computers and evaluations don't, and shouldn't, care about highschool rankings. Duke is a bubble team at best this year and we went to OT at home against them.

That isn't to say we aren't better than 40th. But I don't think we played better than 40th yesterday. Take care of the ball like we normally do, pressure their guards like normal, have our normal decision making, and close out the game like we've come to expect and we win by 15+ in regulation and we can make this argument. But we didn't. We won while having an off night which is great in and of itself, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect much movement from where we were after the way we played.

 

[MWBATL]

Well to be fair, the computers also missed us putting on a performance that should probably warrant accusations of point shaving (kidding obviously). This game was huge because of the situation of being on the bubble and the name of our opponent (not the quality) and is a big win for those reason. However it's not exactly a win I would point to and say, see, we're top 25. And not just the sloppy play at the end, but the poor ball pressure allowing far too many easy lobs, settling for too many threes without movement, carelessness with the ball, etc.

Also, Duke has a bunch of 5* recruits. They aren't a 5* team computers and evaluations don't, and shouldn't, care about highschool rankings. Duke is a bubble team at best this year and we went to OT at home against them.

That isn't to say we aren't better than 40th. But I don't think we played better than 40th yesterday. Take care of the ball like we normally do, pressure their guards like normal, have our normal decision making, and close out the game like we've come to expect and we win by 15+ in regulation and we can make this argument. But we didn't. We won while having an off night which is great in and of itself, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect much movement from where we were after the way we played.

This is an extremely fair and accurate take.

A bit like saying that we beat UNC, Kentucky, and Duke all in the same year (but not mentioning that all 3 might miss the post-season...or at least 2 out of 3).

It does feel good, no doubt about it.

I am impressed by the way this staff under Pastner has rallied from a horrendous start to the year. I was CERTAIN those two early embarrassing losses would cost us dearly. But, to their credit I am very pleased to say they proved me wrong and I need to eat some crow. Which way to the crow table...?

 

[crut]

Not much movement in NET (sorry if already posted) We move up from 41->40

(It’s an OT win at home, where we were slightly favored, so kinda makes sense).

In the “doesn’t matter” category:
KenPom 30 (Duke is 36)
Sagarin 39 (Duke is 31)

I've read the selection committee looks at both of those metrics

 

[D-man44]

I've read the selection committee looks at both of those metrics

The other thing is the win yesterday almost guarantees that tech finishes with a winning record in quad 1/2 games something the committee looked at and mentioned in 2018

 

[Deleted member 2897]

This is an extremely fair and accurate take.

A bit like saying that we beat UNC, Kentucky, and Duke all in the same year (but not mentioning that all 3 might miss the post-season...or at least 2 out of 3).

It does feel good, no doubt about it.

I am impressed by the way this staff under Pastner has rallied from a horrendous start to the year. I was CERTAIN those two early embarrassing losses would cost us dearly. But, to their credit I am very pleased to say they proved me wrong and I need to eat some crow. Which way to the crow table...?

Yea, but just sit back and think about the fact that the Georgia Tech basketball team this year beat Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Notre Dame........

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Some of these teams you just throw a blanket over. For example, what really is the difference between Maryland and Georgia Tech?

Maryland: 9-9 Big Ten (7th place), 14-10 overall, NET #28, Q1 5-9, Q1/Q2: 7-10.
Georgia Tech: 10-6 ACC (6th, but thats arguable with so many missed games ahead of us), 14-8 overall, NET #40, Q1 2-6, Q1/Q2: 8-6

On paper, if I were being unbiased, I wouldn't see a big difference between these teams.

 

[lv20gt]

For example, what really is the difference between Maryland and Georgia Tech?

A harder SOS, an extra 3 Q1 wins, a lack of Q3 losses, better average win, better average loss, better computer metrics across pretty much all spectrums.

None of it by themselves paints it as a significant difference, but there isn't really a standard by which Maryland doesn't have a better resume. I don't see a huge difference between the teams. I do see a glaringly obvious difference in the resumes.

 

[gtjackets930]

A harder SOS, an extra 3 Q1 wins, a lack of Q3 losses, better average win, better average loss, better computer metrics across pretty much all spectrums.

None of it by themselves paints it as a significant difference, but there isn't really a standard by which Maryland doesn't have a better resume. I don't see a huge difference between the teams. I do see a glaringly obvious difference in the resumes.

Agreed, we simply didn't have enough strong wins to have been off the bubble until now.

We still don't have a ton of strong wins, but they are better than other bubble teams, so we get in. However, I firmly believe that quality wins should trump most other metrics, which is why Maryland has the better resume

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Should we have a Covid "Exposure" to the team so we can rest up for the tournament? Let the team get some extra rest. Plus get rid of the risk of losing to weak forest.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Agreed, we simply didn't have enough strong wins to have been off the bubble until now.

We still don't have a ton of strong wins, but they are better than other bubble teams, so we get in. However, I firmly believe that quality wins should trump most other metrics, which is why Maryland has the better resume

I guess it depends on your personal preference. Maryland has 3 quality wins against conference teams with a winning record - Georgia Tech has 6. Meanwhile, they have 2 conference losses against teams with a losing record. We have 0.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Big game tonight - Clemson travels to Syracuse.

Clemson has won 5 straight ACC games, dating back to a 26 point loss to Duke. Along the way, they beat Syracuse at home.

Syracuse gets the Georgia Tech scheduling shaft, having just played Saturday and Monday.

If Syracuse wins, we pass Clemson for 5th place.

Louisville has 1 game left, against Virginia. If they lose that game and we beat Wake Forest, we move into 4th place.

We can't catch Virginia Tech or Florida State, due to all their missed games. Their win percentage will be higher than ours even if we finish the same difference over 0.500. And we can't catch Virginia either, so we max out at a 4th seed.

A 4th seed gets a double bye, playing against the winner of the #5 and the #12/#13. It would be a back-to-back for the #5 and a double back-to-back for the #12/#13 (if say Notre Dame beats BC and then gets hot and beats Clemson).

Clemson/GT are highly likely to finish 4th and 5th or vice versa since Louisville is predicted to lose to Virginia. So we'll likely play Clemson no matter what. I'd rather skip a meaningless game against a Notre Dame team that could get randomly hot and make them fight that out then play us on no rest.

Go Syracuse!

 

[lv20gt]

Clemson game seems like it might be a win win for us. If they win they likely become a Q1 win for us. If they lose we likely pass them in the standings.

 

[Connell62]

Big game tonight - Clemson travels to Syracuse.

Clemson has won 5 straight ACC games, dating back to a 26 point loss to Duke. Along the way, they beat Syracuse at home.

Syracuse gets the Georgia Tech scheduling shaft, having just played Saturday and Monday.

If Syracuse wins, we pass Clemson for 5th place.

Louisville has 1 game left, against Virginia. If they lose that game and we beat Wake Forest, we move into 4th place.

We can't catch Virginia Tech or Florida State, due to all their missed games. Their win percentage will be higher than ours even if we finish the same difference over 0.500. And we can't catch Virginia either, so we max out at a 4th seed.

A 4th seed gets a double bye, playing against the winner of the #5 and the #12/#13. It would be a back-to-back for the #5 and a double back-to-back for the #12/#13 (if say Notre Dame beats BC and then gets hot and beats Clemson).

Clemson/GT are highly likely to finish 4th and 5th or vice versa since Louisville is predicted to lose to Virginia. So we'll likely play Clemson no matter what. I'd rather skip a meaningless game against a Notre Dame team that could get randomly hot and make them fight that out then play us on no rest.

Go Syracuse!

Isn't there still a scenario where we could finish 3rd overall? If those chips fall into place, we could win the whole thing!

 

[forensicbuzz]

Isn't there still a scenario where we could finish 3rd overall? If those chips fall into place, we could win the whole thing!

I'd rather be a 4. I think we match up better against UVa than FSU, even though we lost both to Virginia and beat FSU. Rather face FSU or Vipisue in the ACCT CG.

 

[lv20gt]

Isn't there still a scenario where we could finish 3rd overall? If those chips fall into place, we could win the whole thing!

Nope. Our best win% we can get is 64.7%. FSU's floor is 67%, VT's is 69% since they don't play again. UVA's is 71%.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Isn't there still a scenario where we could finish 3rd overall? If those chips fall into place, we could win the whole thing!

Actually good catch, because they have a game @NC State on the schedule. I missed that. If they lose that game and we beat Wake Forest, we pass them in the standings. But if that game gets canceled we can't catch them. (I'm guessing it gets canceled - why would you want to play that if you're Virginia Tech? Literally nothing to gain.)

 

[GTbball2016]

Should we have a Covid "Exposure" to the team so we can rest up for the tournament? Let the team get some extra rest. Plus get rid of the risk of losing to weak forest.

Was thinking this also. Gives Jose’s hamstring time to heal and it would eliminate a game that can do nothing but hurt our chances.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Was thinking this also. Gives Jose’s hamstring time to heal and it would eliminate a game that can do nothing but hurt our chances.

We risk not catching Louisville or Clemson if we skip Wake Forest.