A lot of misinformation in this thread about records, bowl tiers, bowl selection order, etc... only record that matters in Notre Dame, and even that is weird because there is no selection order.
This is the ACC bowl tie-ins.
1 - Playoffs
2 - Orange Bowl - highest ranked ACC team remaining
3 - NY6 bowl - Any ACC team ranked high enough to get one of these bids
4 through 12:
Pinstripe Bowl
Pop Tart Bowl
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Fenway Bowl
Military Bowl
ReliaQuest Bowl
Holiday Bowl
Gator Bowl
Sun Bowl
Other Bowl Games if we still have teams eligible that weren't placed above:
Gasparilla Bowl
Birmingham Bowl
First Responder Bowl
From the linked article:
Notre Dame is eligible for any ACC bowl tie-in as long as it’s within one game of the team eligible for the slot. However, it’s not eligible to go to the Orange Bowl as an ACC member.
The ACC bowl slots will mostly be based on the matchups that will potentially generate the most interest.
There's not a true pecking order.
The Sun Bowl website even confirms the selection order but who knows what happens in the conference call with the ACC and bowl partners.
https://www.sunbowl.org/the_sun_bowl_game/team_selection_process
I think we can all agree in that tier of bowls that the "better" teams will go to the ReliaQuest Bowl, Gator Bowl, Pop Tart Bowl, and Holiday Bowl historically. The Sun and Duke's Mayo seem next. Pinstripe, Fenway, and Military at the bottom of that tier. Though technically, that's not how it's documented.
I think it's safe to say as of today that FSU and Louisville will participate in the Playoffs, Orange Bowl and/or a New Years Six bowl. This assumes Louisville beats Kentucky because two losses might change things.
Notre Dame will get the ReliaQuest, Pop Tart, or Gator bowl and I'm guessing Clemson and the UNC/NCSU winner join them in those three bowls.
The Holiday and Sun Bowls seem like they will get Miami and the UNC/NCSU loser. I could easily see the Duke's Mayo bowl lobbying for the UNC/NCSU loser and send Duke to El Paso or San Diego. The Duke's Mayo bowl has had UNC, NCSU, WF, VT, or UVA for 8 straight years! That would leave GT and BC in the Pinstripe and Fenway bowl and it makes sense to put BC in Fenway.
What could change here?
VT or Syracuse could become bowl eligible. VT seems like a good fit for the Military bowl so they are probably irrelevant. Syracuse could get sent to the Pinstripe Bowl freeing up someone (GT?) to play in Gasparilla or Birmingham or another negotiated bowl to create a compelling matchup.
The Holiday bowl might want to setup a Clemson vs Oregon State game (DJ Uiagele revenge game!!!). That could put GT, Miami or the UNC/NCSU loser in the Gator or Pop-Tart bowl. Lots of variables and we don't have any clue what goes on behind closed doors.
Possible Opponents or each options:
ReliaQuest: LSU (small chance it's Ole Miss)
Gator: Tennessee
Pop Tart: Kansas, Kansas St, or Oklahoma State
Holiday: Oregon State but Utah or UCLA could be options - Arizona seems destined for Alamo with their strong finish
Sun: Utah with UCLA or USC as options
Duke's Mayo: Kentucky or Auburn
Pinstripe: Rutgers
Fenway: Memphis or SMU - assumes Tulane to the NY6
Military: Memphis or SMU - assumes Tulane to the NY6