Auburn, Baseball

GTNavyNuke

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Good news Finley is DHing tonight. Could be worse. Wish he were well enough to be at first.

Let's see how long Logan goes. Probably only an inning or two.
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Northeast Stinger

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11,197
How much does it hurt a guy not to have a 92-94 MPH fastball, all other things equal? If a pitcher has good secondary pitches and decent control, can they generally be successful with a 88-89MPH fastball?

If someone has good movement on an 89MPH FB, does it hurt them that much that it might be 3-4MPH slower than harder throwers?

I know this is a complicated question with a ton of variables (secondary pitches, command, movement, RH vs LH, etc.). I ask it because it seemed like our guys (with the exception of King and Busse) were all 87-89 MPH and seemed to struggle putting people away (except for Carwile, who was outstanding last night). It just "seems" like for most other top D1 baseball schools, 92-94MPH is the norm and 87-89 is the exception and its the opposite for us. I was listening to a D1 podcast earlier this week and when they discussed programs in their top 25 they seemed to mention multiple pitchers (starter and bullpen) they could bring in throwing 92-97. Maybe I am just grasping at straws here trying to make sense of our struggles??

I know personally, for a closer, I have always felt a lot more comfortable with a guy who could come in and throw 97-98 that was slightly erratic but just could blow guys away than a guy who throws in the high 80s and tricks people.
I’ve never been a baseball expert, and I haven’t followed the game closely in years, but in my opinion the best starting pitcher the Braves ever had rarely threw the ball over 83 mph. But his control was phenomenal. Back before him the Braves had a relief pitcher who threw balls that cracked people’s bats and was said to throw a “heavy ball.” His top speed was 88 mph at best but was only attained 4 or 5 times a game.
 

Killerbees

Jolly Good Fellow
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197
What a win and a much needed one! Pitching seems to be gaining traction, I would like to see some consistency now. I do worry about our defense. LF/RF are killing us. But again, need the bats. Maybe late inning subs? Also need Compton back a 3B and get Romano back at 2B. Now let’s get a sweep!
 

GTNavyNuke

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This team needs to learn how to win the close ones and how to get clutch hits to generate those come from behind wins. We've given too many winnable games away this year. Hopefully we'll look back on last night as the turning point.

The game was good to win since Auburn has a 44 RPI. To have lost at home we'd be in low 60's RPI. As it is, we are at 60 this morning.

With the extra inning win, we've gone to 2-2 on the year for extra inning games. Last night with a better defense, we win easily, but we don't make it easy. Hall did really well pulling pitchers, and we pitched 10 last night. Most was Logan with 28 pitches so all are more than available for Friday against VT.

We need a turning point and it's going to come down to who is coming back and can step up to pitch. Don't know Finley's extent of (bicep?) injury. Logan looks to be ready for maybe 3 innings. It'll be interesting and pitching is part of the solution. The other is playing better defense; two more scored errors and several other non-scored errors which good teams make. Rumor of Compton coming back; we'll see.

Our Caveman offense came to play and carried the day. Hall pulled pitchers fast enough that none gave up the back breaking 5 ERs. Good to win.
 

FredJacket

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The game was good to win since Auburn has a 44 RPI. To have lost at home we'd be in low 60's RPI. As it is, we are at 60 this morning.

With the extra inning win, we've gone to 2-2 on the year for extra inning games. Last night with a better defense, we win easily, but we don't make it easy. Hall did really well pulling pitchers, and we pitched 10 last night. Most was Logan with 28 pitches so all are more than available for Friday against VT.

We need a turning point and it's going to come down to who is coming back and can step up to pitch. Don't know Finley's extent of (bicep?) injury. Logan looks to be ready for maybe 3 innings. It'll be interesting and pitching is part of the solution. The other is playing better defense; two more scored errors and several other non-scored errors which good teams make. Rumor of Compton coming back; we'll see.

Our Caveman offense came to play and carried the day. Hall pulled pitchers fast enough that none gave up the back breaking 5 ERs. Good to win.
If there's an expectation our RPI (#60 today) can improve by season's end... it can't. Mathematically... it cannot... at least not much.

Our own record only accounts for 25% of RPI. The winning % of our opponents & opponents of opponents account for the other 75%. That means we must play (not necessarily beat ... smh) teams with good winning %. There are 22 games left on the schedule... 19 of those are v teams with 12-17 losses. Only one team (UVA) has a "helpful" winning %. That could change slightly if VT & Miami & Duke get hot... the problem there is if we beat them it hurts their winning % & mitigates helping Ga Tech's RPI.

[Both ND & Clemson have better RPI than GT. Their records are worse & we beat both head to head]

I think/hope our post-season prospects hang on the ACC. Seems reasonable to expect the committee to award the conference with 8-9 bids. Get to (stay at) 8th and we'll be in.

ETA... I'm officially on the RPI haters club. 😎
 
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gtbeak

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
543
If there's an expectation our RPI (#60 today) can improve by season's end... it can't. Mathematically... it cannot... at least not much.

Our own record only accounts for 25% of RPI. The winning % of our opponents & opponents of opponents account for the other 75%. That means we must play (not necessarily beat ... smh) teams with good winning %. There are 22 games left on the schedule... 19 of those are v teams with 12-17 losses. Only one team (UVA) has a "helpful" winning %. That could change slightly if VT & Miami & Duke get hot... the problem there is if we beat them it hurts their winning % & mitigates helping Ga Tech's RPI.

[Both ND & Clemson have better RPI than GT. Their records are worse & we beat both head to head]

I think/hope our post-season prospects hang on the ACC. Seems reasonable to expect the committee to award the conference with 8-9 bids. Get to (stay at) 8th and we'll be in.

ETA... I'm officially on the RPI haters club. 😎
What is killing our RPI is the fact that we played Miami (Oh), Tennessee Tech, and Long Island, all at home. All three of those teams have proven to be pretty bad, and 7 games against sub 200 RPI teams is a pretty big amount. Still, our SoS continues improving, we are up to 51 in that regard. Only 5 schools (Kentucky, South Carolina, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and Florida) have more RPI top-50 wins than our total of 9. Winning one of those close games on the road against Louisville or BC would have helped a bunch. That said, there is still room for improvement since the other teams ahead of us are also still playing, so their RPI numbers will be fluctuating, hopefully downward. Win 2 of 3 this weekend and we will move into the 50's. I know that will be tough, but it is in our reach at least. If we could somehow go 2-4 against Miami & Virginia that would move us up also. I wish we didn't have to play Pittsburgh...we really need a sweep in that series. The Duke series being on the road will help if we can play well there. At least Gardner-Webb isn't a dumpster fire, so that series will hurt some but not too much. We need to win at least 3 of 4 of the remaining mid-week games.

TL;DR (I'm sorry)... go 3-3 against Virginia Tech and Duke, 2-4 against Miami & Virginia, take 5 of 6 against Pitt & GW, and 3 of 4 in the mid-week gets us to 15-15 in ACC, 33-22 overall. Then would probably need one game in the ACC tourney, but that should be sufficient, I suspect. We need for Florida St, Ole Miss, and Rutgers to continue losing their conference games to get or stay below .500 overall.
 

78pike

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907
ACC announcers pleasuring each other with Auburn stories....why?
I think they were actually SEC announcers. I've heard the play by play guy on several SEC broadcasts before. Early in the game they mentioned they were originally slated to call the UK vs. Louisville game that got cancelled due to the shooting in Louisville yesterday. I noticed they were both calling our game remotely so I guess for some reason ESPN decided to have them call our game. If I had to guess I would say the announcers probably get paid more to do TV broadcasts than they do streaming broadcasts so maybe this was ESPN's way to meet their contractual obligations - and by dropping whoever was scheduled to do our game when it was on ACC Network Extra they saved themselves some money.
 

gtbeak

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
543
What is killing our RPI is the fact that we played Miami (Oh), Tennessee Tech, and Long Island, all at home. All three of those teams have proven to be pretty bad, and 7 games against sub 200 RPI teams is a pretty big amount. Still, our SoS continues improving, we are up to 51 in that regard. Only 5 schools (Kentucky, South Carolina, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and Florida) have more RPI top-50 wins than our total of 9. Winning one of those close games on the road against Louisville or BC would have helped a bunch. That said, there is still room for improvement since the other teams ahead of us are also still playing, so their RPI numbers will be fluctuating, hopefully downward. Win 2 of 3 this weekend and we will move into the 50's. I know that will be tough, but it is in our reach at least. If we could somehow go 2-4 against Miami & Virginia that would move us up also. I wish we didn't have to play Pittsburgh...we really need a sweep in that series. The Duke series being on the road will help if we can play well there. At least Gardner-Webb isn't a dumpster fire, so that series will hurt some but not too much. We need to win at least 3 of 4 of the remaining mid-week games.

TL;DR (I'm sorry)... go 3-3 against Virginia Tech and Duke, 2-4 against Miami & Virginia, take 5 of 6 against Pitt & GW, and 3 of 4 in the mid-week gets us to 15-15 in ACC, 33-22 overall. Then would probably need one game in the ACC tourney, but that should be sufficient, I suspect. We need for Florida St, Ole Miss, and Rutgers to continue losing their conference games to get or stay below .500 overall.
Well, I did some lunchtime homework and found out I am probably a little too optimistic as to what will be needed to make the tournament. Last season the lowest RPI to get an at large was Grand Canyon at 50 and UCLA at 48. The lowest "east coast" school was Arkansas, who got in with a 41 RPI and Ole Miss with a 39 RPI. Of course both of those made it to Omaha, with Ole Miss taking the championship.

A comparable 2022 comparison to our 2023 team was NC State, who went 14-15 in conference, went 3-1 in the ACC tourney, 36-21 overall, RPI of 33, and yet failed to get into the NCAA.

I now think it will take a little more than what I typed above to get us in this season. Sorry for the update, I know it disappointed myself.
 

78pike

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907
This team needs to learn how to win the close ones and how to get clutch hits to generate those come from behind wins. We've given too many winnable games away this year. Hopefully we'll look back on last night as the turning point.
We actually have a pretty strong record this year when ahead after both the 7th and 8th innings. We haven't blown too many save opportunities with Busse as our closer. Our problem is we aren't very good at coming back to win when being behind after 7 or 8 innings. Tonight we were able to screw up the former and improve the latter.
 

FredJacket

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Well, I did some lunchtime homework and found out I am probably a little too optimistic as to what will be needed to make the tournament. Last season the lowest RPI to get an at large was Grand Canyon at 50 and UCLA at 48. The lowest "east coast" school was Arkansas, who got in with a 41 RPI and Ole Miss with a 39 RPI. Of course both of those made it to Omaha, with Ole Miss taking the championship.

A comparable 2022 comparison to our 2023 team was NC State, who went 14-15 in conference, went 3-1 in the ACC tourney, 36-21 overall, RPI of 33, and yet failed to get into the NCAA.

I now think it will take a little more than what I typed above to get us in this season. Sorry for the update, I know it disappointed myself.
NC State got a pretty bad deal last year.

No two ways about it. When you fail to get to .500 in your conference regular season record, you're playing with fire. NC State helped themselves enough in the ACC tournament... but still got jammed by the committee.
 
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