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GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

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Tuesday @Auburn @ 7PM. Good time for one of the teams to bounce back.

Similar records, Auburn just dropped two in a row to Southeastern Louisiana.

We are both undefeated mid-week against weaker competition. Weather looks good but cold (upper 40's).

ACC / SEC matchup. SEC now has higher OOC win% than ACC (82% to 79%).

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78pike

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GTNavyNuke said:
Tuesday @Auburn @ 7PM. Good time for one of the teams to bounce back.

Similar records, Auburn just dropped two in a row to Southeastern Louisiana.

We are both undefeated mid-week against weaker competition. Weather looks good but cold (upper 40's).

ACC / SEC matchup. SEC now has higher OOC win% than ACC (82% to 79%).

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The only reason the SEC passed the ACC is because they played patsies this weekend helping their OOC% while the ACC started conference play.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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78pike said:
The only reason the SEC passed the ACC is because they played patsies this weekend helping their OOC% while the ACC started conference play.
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So, you're saying a conference that knows how to maximize the number of teams it can get into postseason by certain scheduling techniques?
 
GTNavyNuke

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Both the ACC & SEC have played weak OOC to start. And the SEC in the data above had won 27 more games than the ACC and only lost 1 more game than the ACC. Given we are talking 200 games, it's statistically significant. (I don't like the SEC but they are paying the most NIL and will probably continue to pull further ahead of other conferences.)

One thing that is marginally helpful to us is that Auburn plays Wednesday and then has a big series against Arkansas.

Hall in his presser after the games said L'Ville and Auburn are ranked. I don't know who has Auburn ranked, but then again someone had us ranked. (We'll talk about L'Ville after Tuesday.)

Here was D1's projection before the season: Auburn to finish last in the West. There are some really good teams projected in front of them.
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78pike

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CINCYMETJACKET said:
So, you're saying a conference that knows how to maximize the number of teams it can get into postseason by certain scheduling techniques?
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I was just explaining why the SEC pulled ahead of us in the OOC win %. The fact the ACC schedules more games in conference than the SEC does is a completely different discussion as is why they choose to do so. We can debate the merits of scheduling if you like but that wasn't the point of my response. I was just pointing out why they pulled ahead of the ACC from the prior week's numbers.
 
FredJacket

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78pike said:
I was just explaining why the SEC pulled ahead of us in the OOC win %. The fact the ACC schedules more games in conference than the SEC does is a completely different discussion as is why they choose to do so. We can debate the merits of scheduling if you like but that wasn't the point of my response. I was just pointing out why they pulled ahead of the ACC from the prior week's numbers.
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Both conferences schedule 30 conference games.
 
78pike

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FredJacket said:
Both conferences schedule 30 conference games.
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fair enough but the premise of the original post still applies. They pulled ahead of us in OOC win % because the played patsies last weekend while we were in conference. I know the ACC has an off weekend during the season due to an odd number of teams so I assume the SEC plays all in conference once they start in order for both of us to end up at 30 conference games. What would be interesting to see is what the strength of schedule of the OOC opponents is for each league. Although I guess that might be a skewed number because of those opponents playing ranked teams from each conference.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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78pike said:
fair enough but the premise of the original post still applies. They pulled ahead of us in OOC win % because the played patsies last weekend while we were in conference. I know the ACC has an off weekend during the season due to an odd number of teams so I assume the SEC plays all in conference once they start in order for both of us to end up at 30 conference games. What would be interesting to see is what the strength of schedule of the OOC opponents is for each league. Although I guess that might be a skewed number because of those opponents playing ranked teams from each conference.
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Yeah, I think I read your original post as pulled ahead of the ACC in RPI, as that was the first column listed and I believe how they were ranked. I'd be curious to see how last weekend's results impacted RPI, even though RPI really doesn't mean much this time of year. We really have to see how good some of these teams are in conference before judging how good or bad a particular team is. Like Columbia beating Alabama this past weekend. UVA's sweep over them looks a lot better now than it did when it happened. If Columbia finishes in the bottom half of the IVY League though...
 
GTNavyNuke

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78pike said:
fair enough but the premise of the original post still applies. They pulled ahead of us in OOC win % because the played patsies last weekend while we were in conference. I know the ACC has an off weekend during the season due to an odd number of teams so I assume the SEC plays all in conference once they start in order for both of us to end up at 30 conference games. What would be interesting to see is what the strength of schedule of the OOC opponents is for each league. Although I guess that might be a skewed number because of those opponents playing ranked teams from each conference.
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I don't think the SEC is ahead because of last weekend's games but simply that they have won a higher % of the games. Both leagues have played patsies, and to try and use RPI this early in the season to determine OOC SoS (patsiness (sic)) is not reliable.

Also, the SEC had pulled ahead before last week by about the same margin as I recall. So I can't agree that the SEC pulled ahead of OOC play due to the ACC playing in conference.

Both the ACC and SEC currently have 14 teams. The SEC has played more OOC games (227) that the ACC to date (181). Largely because of what you said which is the ACC mostly went to conference play last weekend. We'll take our OOC weekend for finals week (Gardner-Webb).

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FredJacket

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The ACC is scheduled for 22 head to head games v the SEC. So far, the ACC is 5-6 against the SEC.

Teams involved:
Ga Tech - 5 games v SEC (3xUGA / 2xAuburn)
Clemson - 5 games v SEC (3xUSCe / 2xUGA)
Louisville - 4 games v SEC (1xTexA&M / 3xUK)
FSU - 3 games v SEC (3xUF)
Miami - 3 games v SEC (3xUF)
UNC - 1 game v SEC (USCe)
BC - 1 game v SEC (Tenn)

Current Records:
Ga Tech 1-2
Clemson 1-2
Louisville 1-0
FSU 0-0
Miami 1-2
UNC 0-0
BC 1-0
 

GTRambler

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Tommy Vail is Auburn’s starting pitcher for tonight’s game. He is 2-0 with an 0.00 ERA, same as our starter Ben King.

Vail is currently a graduate student at Auburn. He previously played four years at Notre Dame. Additional information on Vail (below):

Tommy Vail - Baseball - Auburn University Athletics

Tommy Vail (21) LHP - 2022 – REDSHIRT SENIOR SEASON AT TCU Bouncing back from Tommy John surgery, went 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in 13 relief appearances … struck out
auburntigers.com auburntigers.com
 
GTNavyNuke

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A win tonight @Auburn would be big for RPI, we are definitely the underdog before considering the specific pitchers. From Warren Nolan (note it's only as good as the RPIs which aren't all that good but this makes sense to me)
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GTNavyNuke

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FredJacket said:
Draftkings sees it a little closer. I like the under, though.

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Any idea how to figure the probability of win? 1..5 on 15.5 would mean expectation of 8.5 runs Auburn and 7 runs GT. But I don't know how to get to probabilty of win since I don't know the distribution spread.

This does say we are closer than the Warren Nolan 8-4 projection. I think the likelihood when considering pitching staff depth and @ Auburn is much greater than either. So I'd bet on Auburn if I had to bet (I don't). But it's baseball.
 
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