Atlanta Braves News

FredJacket

FredJacket

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Alright.. I was curious just HOW the Nationals could maybe see a way/path to catch Braves and steal the NL East. No analytical angle is promising for this to happen... 8% chance that YJF2018 has quoted seems high. ...but I understand @Milwaukee pointing to head to head. It is baseball and crazy stuff happens. However, that crazy stuff usually happens in relative isolation (like a 7-run 9th inning walkoff) ... not over larger samples sizes. So.. here is what I looked at:

First of all HEAD to HEAD. The current head to head record is 6-6 with 7 games to play (4 in Atlanta and 3 in DC). Being generous, I think 5-2 would be BEST Nationals could do. This is based on their sub-500 record against teams with an above-500 winning % and Braves have relative success against that same sample of opponents. Bottom line... these 2 teams being .500 head-to-head seems to be right on the money. AND Nationals need to go way better than .500 in these games to close gap.

Even more telling is how consistent the Braves have been all season & they would likely have to have their worst stretch (to finish) all season for Nats to even get close.

The Braves have 22 game remaining. I went back to look at their 22 game "rolling record" throughout 2019 starting after their 22nd game back in April. The "worst" 22 game stretch the Braves have endured is 9-13. That was ONLY for 2 consecutive days back in early May during a long road trip that included west-coast swing to LA (swept) and Arizona. Besides that period in May... the Braves have never won fewer than 10 games over any 22 consecutive games... and 10-12 was rare too. They are 17-5 over the last 22 games. That includes win streaks of 8 games and 6 games (current win streak). Braves are simply not a team that strings together losses... period. They string together wins... consistently.

So.. let's say some really crazy deviation from their current roll occurs and the Braves finish by matching their WORST 22 game stretch (that occurred in May) and go 9-13 to finish the regular season. With a magic number at 18, the Nationals would have to do BETTER than 16-9 to win the division. As has been pointed out... the Nationals schedule is a tough one the rest of the way... the Nationals going 16-9 is probably less likely than Braves going 9-13. <8% IMO.

I think @YellowJacketFan2018 last predicted Nationals would finish 96-66. I think they'll be closer to 93-69.

There is a 99.7% chance my post here irritates @Milwaukee .... awwww shuckies! :shame:
 
Buzzbomb

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
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12,014
Milwaukee chewed all of us a new one, last night. So Fred, you are in good or bad company depending on how one looks at such things. I have not been forecasting, other than trying to equal last years 90 win total or get to 91 or greater. I did make the mistake of an early magic number back in August for the fun of it. I still think we go down to the last weekend. Nats. are too good. I keep imagining their record if they didn’t get off to that horrid start? Again, all 162 count.

When the Braves get their walking wounded back, it should help the win total. Kakes and his value should not be discounted. No slight at Joyce. The starters finally have stability, as Keuchel and Folty have claimed experienced roles with Tehran. Like it or not, Greene is the 8th, Melon Man is the closer.
 
GTJake

GTJake

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After the Braves game last night I switched over to watch the 9th inning of the Mets/Nats (we have the MLB channel) ... this did not help my paranoia !!
Congrats to an old friend, Kurt Suzuki with a walk-off three run homer.
Kudo's to Tyler Flowers on the bases clearing double, although I though the ball should have been caught. I have been down on Tyler a lot this season ...
Fred, thanks for your analysis, I feel a bit better but am still not counting out the Nats, they also seem to have some Mojo going right now.
 
GTJake

GTJake

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Glad to have a 7-Game lead going into the series, even if we drop 3/4 we'll come away with a 5-Game lead ... sorry for the pessimism, but the Nats scare the heck out of me.
So much so that I'd rather the Braves not catch the Dodgers for the #1 NL seed ...
IMO, the Nats have one of the best starting rotations in MLB and I'm afraid we'll continue to see the Braves struggle at the plate.
 
YellowJacketFan2018

YellowJacketFan2018

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GTJake said:
Glad to have a 7-Game lead going into the series, even if we drop 3/4 we'll come away with a 5-Game lead ... sorry for the pessimism, but the Nats scare the heck out of me.
So much so that I'd rather the Braves not catch the Dodgers for the #1 NL seed ...
IMO, the Nats have one of the best starting rotations in MLB and I'm afraid we'll continue to see the Braves struggle at the plate.
Click to expand...
Personally,i would think it was great if the Braves had the best record in the NL;)
 
kg01

kg01

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Atlanta
GTJake said:
Glad to have a 7-Game lead going into the series, even if we drop 3/4 we'll come away with a 5-Game lead ... sorry for the pessimism, but the Nats scare the heck out of me.
So much so that I'd rather the Braves not catch the Dodgers for the #1 NL seed ...
IMO, the Nats have one of the best starting rotations in MLB and I'm afraid we'll continue to see the Braves struggle at the plate.
Click to expand...

Braves sweep gNats this series, bro. Why? 'Cause it don't make no dang sense at all and that's Atlanta sports in a nutshell.

You're welcome.
 
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