Article Says BEST CASE Scenario Is 5-7

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SOWEGA Jacket

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Ok, but 3 wins is 3 wins. If you go back to 2015 that many here do....We only lost big in one game. Clemson 43-24. Not 73-7. This team in 2020 did not play nearly as well as 2015, both 3 win seasons.
Well one was in year 2 with a true freshman QB with a roster inherited from a previous coach and the other was in year 8 with a program he built and a 3rd year QB. I’m just saying 2015 was worse than anything we’ve seen under Collins (other than the block and shock). If Collins wins 3 in year 8 I’ll be just as tough on him. No reason a coach should only win 3 once he establishes his program.
 

augustabuzz

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Going from 28 to 22 is a 20% improvement.

Going from 50 to 35 is a 30% improvement.

I had thought of that too (relative performance), but we're still 50% better on a relative basis using that approach too. 🤷‍♂️

But that could be it - damn the data, we just think 28 to 22 is better than 50 to 35.
Wait till 247 adds this years recruiting class including transfers. This usually happens in September. I expect a jump in team talent ranking.
 
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Looking at the portal for UNC, they transferred in a 4 star running back and no one else and it looks like half the team transferred out. about 20.
 

Deleted member 2897

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um if they subtract what left it is about break even. We had 2 4stars transfer away and had none transfer in.

Not from last year - we had 7 guys transfer in. At least a couple 4-stars I can remember - Kenyatta Watson and Kevin Harris. Had 4 pretty mid to strong 3-stars come in that would be accretive to our roster ranking. And by need, we picked up a super solid Kicker and DL Keion White who has almost led the nation in TFL.
 
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I’m just saying 2015 was worse than anything we’ve seen under Collins (other than the block and shock).

This is total bull****. We ran a damned option run offense where we ran 90% of the time and lost what - our top 5 running backs? On top of a bunch of other injuries. And go back and look at the scores - we lost like 6 of the 9 games by less than 1 score or something. Don't come here with that made up fake boos.
 

Pointer

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This is where we currently are as a program. The guy is not wrong. Win and the narrative will change. Stansbury and Collins knew all this when the 7 year contract was signed. We are right where we were expected to be when we took the rebuilding path. I’m all on board and also see 4-6 wins. But as I always state- wins do not matter right now. Improvement and development is what matters. We could only win 3 games and be a much improved team if we lose a ton of close games. Collins and the staff have to show improvement this season but they don’t have to win any set number of games. The wins will come if we keep recruiting and developing. That was the plan 2 years ago and it hasn’t changed. We were in a deep hole and Collins is still digging GT out.
Funny

I can guarantee what little fans we had showing up (prior to covid) will be even less if Collins doesn't win soon. He should have won at least 6 his first year and built upon that.
 

slugboy

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star trek GIF
 

Pointer

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Well one was in year 2 with a true freshman QB with a roster inherited from a previous coach and the other was in year 8 with a program he built and a 3rd year QB. I’m just saying 2015 was worse than anything we’ve seen under Collins (other than the block and shock). If Collins wins 3 in year 8 I’ll be just as tough on him. No reason a coach should only win 3 once he establishes his program.
How quickly the goal posts shift.

Let's not forget the injuries that basically did away with the entire starting offense and most of the defense.

Collins has no excuse for multiple back to back 3 wins. First year did have some injuries, I'll grant that.
 

Jacketman99

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How quickly the goal posts shift.

Let's not forget the injuries that basically did away with the entire starting offense and most of the defense.

Collins has no excuse for multiple back to back 3 wins. First year did have some injuries, I'll grant that.
Probably had nothing to do with starting 3 true freshmen on offense along with a first time starter at center with no spring and summer. Playing games without your top 4-5 DEs didn't play a roll at all either. Not saying coaching could not have been better but some of our struggles were not unexpected.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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Some of you are just short sighted. Boo hoo, the world will not end if we win 4-5 games this year. Stansbury knows what he is doing. Just because we have some fans who are inpatient doesn’t change the plan.

And regarding 2015, boo freaking hoo. That was Johnson’s 8th year and it’s on him that he built zero depth. Give me a break. Injuries happen to every team, yet our team folded like a cheap lawn chair. I don’t see y’all giving Collins a pass for losing his starting QB against Citadel. No, you beat on hI’m for losing that game. Y’all are the ones moving goal posts. I can promise you what Collins is building at GT is a true program that won’t fold once established unlike Johnson’s QB keep offense. Were the scores ugly last year? Sure, but so freaking what. Last season was all about playing a freshmen QB and if you want to talk injuries our defense was never health. Losing all those close games in 2015 did nothing to advance the program and was the beginn8ng of the end for Johnson. Those losses last year are just steps along the path to building a real program. And y’all can whine when the wins don’t satisfy you but all of y’all will be here when the wins pile up and we are a roster of 4 stars.
 

Pointer

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Some of you are just short sighted. Boo hoo, the world will not end if we win 4-5 games this year. Stansbury knows what he is doing. Just because we have some fans who are inpatient doesn’t change the plan.

And regarding 2015, boo freaking hoo. That was Johnson’s 8th year and it’s on him that he built zero depth. Give me a break. Injuries happen to every team, yet our team folded like a cheap lawn chair. I don’t see y’all giving Collins a pass for losing his starting QB against Citadel. No, you beat on hI’m for losing that game. Y’all are the ones moving goal posts. I can promise you what Collins is building at GT is a true program that won’t fold once established unlike Johnson’s QB keep offense. Were the scores ugly last year? Sure, but so freaking what. Last season was all about playing a freshmen QB and if you want to talk injuries our defense was never health. Losing all those close games in 2015 did nothing to advance the program and was the beginn8ng of the end for Johnson. Those losses last year are just steps along the path to building a real program. And y’all can whine when the wins don’t satisfy you but all of y’all will be here when the wins pile up and we are a roster of 4 stars.
Funny, saying others are whining while making this post.

Exiting the circular argument now.
 
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Some of you are just short sighted. Boo hoo, the world will not end if we win 4-5 games this year. Stansbury knows what he is doing. Just because we have some fans who are inpatient doesn’t change the plan.

And regarding 2015, boo freaking hoo. That was Johnson’s 8th year and it’s on him that he built zero depth. Give me a break. Injuries happen to every team, yet our team folded like a cheap lawn chair. I don’t see y’all giving Collins a pass for losing his starting QB against Citadel. No, you beat on hI’m for losing that game. Y’all are the ones moving goal posts. I can promise you what Collins is building at GT is a true program that won’t fold once established unlike Johnson’s QB keep offense. Were the scores ugly last year? Sure, but so freaking what. Last season was all about playing a freshmen QB and if you want to talk injuries our defense was never health. Losing all those close games in 2015 did nothing to advance the program and was the beginn8ng of the end for Johnson. Those losses last year are just steps along the path to building a real program. And y’all can whine when the wins don’t satisfy you but all of y’all will be here when the wins pile up and we are a roster of 4 stars.
In 2014 we started a first time starter at QB in a more complicated offense. We won 11 games. The 2014 was a heavy senior laden team, usually means success. We lost 10 starters off the offense going into 2015 due to graduation. We then suffered a fair number of injuries in 2015. 2015 and 2019 and 2020 are not comparable. After 2015 we won 9 games in 2016. Lost our starter in the Citadel game....we played 3 quarterbacks....who was the starter? Part of the problem in 2019. Above the line I guess.......2017 we were a couple of plays and very unlucky breaks from winning 7 games. 2018 we won 7 and again were close to winning 9.
I am all for Collin succeeding as I like his love of Tech. I just think that we will never recruit enough talent, particularly on defense without creating advantage through scheme. We are Vandy, Duke, Army Navy....we are not UNC. Alabama or Clemson. Our kids have to go to school.

This year is the marker. Another 3 win season and we will be looking for a new coach. 6 wins, with a hard schedule....that is a passing grade. I think for CGC to succeed he needs to get rid of CDP and shift the offense. But we shall see. It is June and we will know by mid October where we are at.

And by the way...attacking the CPJ years does you no favors...many of us liked beating UGA, Fla State, VT, and going to Orange bowls...something that we had rarely seen in 50 years at Tech.
 

WreckinGT

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Some of you are just short sighted. Boo hoo, the world will not end if we win 4-5 games this year. Stansbury knows what he is doing. Just because we have some fans who are inpatient doesn’t change the plan.

And regarding 2015, boo freaking hoo. That was Johnson’s 8th year and it’s on him that he built zero depth. Give me a break. Injuries happen to every team, yet our team folded like a cheap lawn chair. I don’t see y’all giving Collins a pass for losing his starting QB against Citadel. No, you beat on hI’m for losing that game. Y’all are the ones moving goal posts. I can promise you what Collins is building at GT is a true program that won’t fold once established unlike Johnson’s QB keep offense. Were the scores ugly last year? Sure, but so freaking what. Last season was all about playing a freshmen QB and if you want to talk injuries our defense was never health. Losing all those close games in 2015 did nothing to advance the program and was the beginn8ng of the end for Johnson. Those losses last year are just steps along the path to building a real program. And y’all can whine when the wins don’t satisfy you but all of y’all will be here when the wins pile up and we are a roster of 4 stars.
2015 was the beginning of the end? Good grief. We won 9 games and beat UGA the next year.
 

ncjacket79

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In 2014 we started a first time starter at QB in a more complicated offense. We won 11 games. The 2014 was a heavy senior laden team, usually means success. We lost 10 starters off the offense going into 2015 due to graduation. We then suffered a fair number of injuries in 2015. 2015 and 2019 and 2020 are not comparable. After 2015 we won 9 games in 2016. Lost our starter in the Citadel game....we played 3 quarterbacks....who was the starter? Part of the problem in 2019. Above the line I guess.......2017 we were a couple of plays and very unlucky breaks from winning 7 games. 2018 we won 7 and again were close to winning 9.
I am all for Collin succeeding as I like his love of Tech. I just think that we will never recruit enough talent, particularly on defense without creating advantage through scheme. We are Vandy, Duke, Army Navy....we are not UNC. Alabama or Clemson. Our kids have to go to school.

This year is the marker. Another 3 win season and we will be looking for a new coach. 6 wins, with a hard schedule....that is a passing grade. I think for CGC to succeed he needs to get rid of CDP and shift the offense. But we shall see. It is June and we will know by mid October where we are at.

And by the way...attacking the CPJ years does you no favors...many of us liked beating UGA, Fla State, VT, and going to Orange bowls...something that we had rarely seen in 50 years at Tech.
Constantly bringing up the CPJ years does nothing either. He’s gone and we’re not going back. We purposefully torpedoed the option offense and accepted the pain and losses that came with it. Go back to when we hired Paul and you will find many posts predicting what would happen when we made the change…and we were right. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have hired CPJ but what we’re dealing with now was completely predictable.
 

Root4GT

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I can't read the article - behind a paywall.

I looked at the average ranking the last 5 years starting back in 2018 (before both our coaches started). Per Rivals, UNC's average ranking was about 25. The last couple years its averaged about 14, which is a net gain of 11. Georgia Tech averaged about 50 and went to about 20 for a net gain of 30. 247 says their average was 28 compared to Rivals' 25 and has the same average of 50 as Rivals does. So 247 has UNC gaining about 14 spots, not just 11. But still a fraction of ours.

If you look at roster composite rating by 247, UNC is currently at 22 and we are at 34. In 2018 they were 29 and we were 50. So they improved 7 spots under that measure and we improved 16. To me this measure is this broadest measure which captures the best picture of recruiting, because you get credit or blame for transfers in and out over a full roster period.

Again, I don't know what types of measures they're using, but under any scenario I would use, Mack Brown has improved their recruiting, but not nearly anywhere near the number of spots we have.
Of course it is much harder to move up the closer to the top you get. Moving from 25, which was very good recruting to 14 moves you to the elite level. That is very hard to do. Mac Brown is an elite recruiter and has been for over 30 years. For us moving from from 50 to the 20s is excellent. Now if we can sustain that level going forward we will be able to start to win games when we play an average game. In past we had to have our "A" game to win nearly all the time as we were not the more talented team.
 
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