Analytics post mortem

[leatherneckjacket]

Not sure if this got posted elsewhere, but even if it did it’s sure as hell worth posting again.

Just think how much higher it would have been if Singleton does not drop the pass in the end zone that was intercepted. Or the other dropped passes. Great game by Philo.

 

[apatriot1776]

Just think how much higher it would have been if Singleton does not drop the pass in the end zone that was intercepted. Or the other dropped passes. Great game by Philo.

I think it should be the same whether it’s dropped or not. The play would be graded as a positive play for Philo and a negative play for Singleton. The PFF grade gives a clearer picture of how each individual player played, independent of the players around them.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I think it should be the same whether it’s dropped or not. The play would be graded as a positive play for Philo and a negative play for Singleton. The PFF grade gives a clearer picture of how each individual player played, independent of the players around them.

I hear what you are saying and while theoretically it may be true, I wonder if in actuality he did get dinged for any those dropped passes.

 

[bobongo]

I think it should be the same whether it’s dropped or not. The play would be graded as a positive play for Philo and a negative play for Singleton. The PFF grade gives a clearer picture of how each individual player played, independent of the players around them.

What about passes that are imprecisely thrown but caught? I would imagine a receiver would get extra credit and somewhat count against the QB. Is that right?

 

[apatriot1776]

What about passes that are imprecisely thrown but caught? I would imagine a receiver would get extra credit and somewhat count against the QB. Is that right?

In theory yes

 

[slugboy]

I hear what you are saying and while theoretically it may be true, I wonder if in actuality he did get dinged for any those dropped passes.

In PFF he shouldn’t be dinged (they’re supposed to give the QB credit for hitting the receiver in the hands, and dinged for a terrible pass that gets caught anyway)

QBR doesn’t care though-ints are ints

 

[bobongo]

In PFF he shouldn’t be dinged (they’re supposed to give the QB credit for hitting the receiver in the hands, and dinged for a terrible pass that gets caught anyway)

QBR doesn’t care though-ints are ints

So just to note, PFF, which is a subjective analysis of direct observation, seems a far more accurate gauge of a performance than stats, which are purely objective.

 

[slugboy]

End of the regular season stat. Eckel is a weird stat based on a Navy Flexbone QB

We are in the same column as UGA, but a little lower and tucked under WVU. This isn’t opponent-adjusted.

parker fleming (@statsowar.bsky.social)

📊🏈Offensive Drive Efficiency and Scoring FBS v FBS Through Week 14

bsky.app

Eckel Rate: How often your offense [defense] generates [allows] a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40 on any given drive.


Pts Per Eckel: What an offense [defense] does [allows] given that you [your opponent] has a big play touchdown or a first down inside the 40

Eckel Ratio: The percent of total first downs and big play touchdowns in a game that you control. https://t.co/973yCZCmP9

 

[slugboy]

SP+ just trashes us—it has us at 59th.

Bill Connelly (@espnbillc.bsky.social)

THE SP+ COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 764 AFTER 14 WEEKS * Teams that would be projected favorites over Purdue: Tarleton State, Yale, SEMO, SC State and Harding * Teams that would be favorites over Kent State: Dayton, Indiana Wesleyan, Bemidji State, N Central * Ohio State-Oberlin check: Buckeyes -143.5

bsky.app

Most of the other models have us between 25th and 50th (usually in the 30’s).

It’s not personal, but it feels that way. you’d think a math model would have our backs out of professional courtesy.

I’m curious where we do badly (field position for sure)

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

According to College Football Data, our offense is 17th and our defense is 35th. Special Teams must be terrible.

Team turnovers had us 53rd. That’s one factor. We really didn’t get many takeaways

College Football Stats - College FB Team Turnover Margin per Game | TeamRankings.com

College Football turnover margin per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

Net field position is 80th

BCF Toys - 2024 Field Position Value

www.bcftoys.com

Offensive starting field position is #111 .

We’re #71 in success rate on defense, and #31 on offense. The hole in our passing defense is the culprit there. Offense is good passing—average rushing success rate.

We’re pretty good at drive finishing on offense (33rd in rate and 35th in points), but weak for a P4 team on defense there (50th in rate and 64th in points)

We’re in the top quarter for explosive plays on offense. Unfortunately, We’re in the wrong top quarter for explosive plays given up on defense.

So, turnovers, field position, and our pass defense are the big things to work on.

 

[JacketOff]

SP+ just trashes us—it has us at 59th.

Bill Connelly (@espnbillc.bsky.social)

THE SP+ COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 764 AFTER 14 WEEKS * Teams that would be projected favorites over Purdue: Tarleton State, Yale, SEMO, SC State and Harding * Teams that would be favorites over Kent State: Dayton, Indiana Wesleyan, Bemidji State, N Central * Ohio State-Oberlin check: Buckeyes -143.5

bsky.app

Most of the other models have us between 25th and 50th (usually in the 30’s).

It’s not personal, but it feels that way. you’d think a math model would have our backs out of professional courtesy.

I’m curious where we do badly (field position for sure)

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

According to College Football Data, our offense is 17th and our defense is 35th. Special Teams must be terrible.

Team turnovers had us 53rd. That’s one factor. We really didn’t get many takeaways

College Football Stats - College FB Team Turnover Margin per Game | TeamRankings.com

College Football turnover margin per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

Net field position is 80th

BCF Toys - 2024 Field Position Value

www.bcftoys.com

Offensive starting field position is #111 .

We’re #71 in success rate on defense, and #31 on offense. The hole in our passing defense is the culprit there. Offense is good passing—average rushing success rate.

We’re pretty good at drive finishing on offense (33rd in rate and 35th in points), but weak for a P4 team on defense there (50th in rate and 64th in points)

So, turnovers, field position, and our pass defense are the big things to work on.

You edited this with more data before o could get a response up, but I was going to say it felt like we didn’t have nearly the explosiveness on offense as we did last year. I really can’t remember Singleton or Rutherford getting loose for any huge plays, it seemed like it was at least a once per game occurrence last year. Some of that is probably due to King’s injury and a more conservative passing attack to limit INTs. We played our best on offense when played ball control and dominated TOP. 37:11 vs. UGA, 34:49 vs. Miami, 33:27 vs. UNC, 39:27 vs. Duke. We only had the ball for 24:15 against ND.

I think both our kick and kick return units were really bad. Seems like we also found a way to start drives following kickoffs inside our own 25 for some reason. Happened against UGA in what was almost a catastrophic blunder. We ended up kicking a field goal on that drive, but we had to go 96 yards instead of 75 for no reason. Shanahan has been pretty inconsistent punting as well. He hits some bombs, but there’s just too many duds in there to reliably flip the field. I hope we can upgrade at the punter position this offseason

 

[slugboy]

You edited this with more data before o could get a response up, but I was going to say it felt like we didn’t have nearly the explosiveness on offense as we did last year. I really can’t remember Singleton or Rutherford getting loose for any huge plays, it seemed like it was at least a once per game occurrence last year. Some of that is probably due to King’s injury and a more conservative passing attack to limit INTs. We played our best on offense when played ball control and dominated TOP. 37:11 vs. UGA, 34:49 vs. Miami, 33:27 vs. U

Yeah, I was working on my phone and saving as I went along.

We’re pretty dang explosive on offense. Unfortunately, also on defense

Also, we ran the ball A LOT.

Edit: I think our defense improved a lot. Our pass defense numbers in 2023 were probably helped by how bad our rush defense was. In 2025, we tighten up the rush defense and we fix the pass defense

 

[roadkill]

Net field position is 80th

There's not a huge difference (probably less than 10 yards) between our 80th starting field position rank and the top teams in that category. One very simple and easy way to pick up perhaps half that difference would be to tell Singleton to take a touchback on kickoffs whenever the opportunity presents itself. We haven't shown that we have the horses or skill on special teams to take it to the house or even get out beyond the 25 with any regularity.
There may be a few opponents where scouting might indicate a higher probability of success with running back kickoffs, but otherwise, we may as well take advantage of the current rules put in place to enhance player safety.

 

[Root4GT]

SP+ just trashes us—it has us at 59th.

Bill Connelly (@espnbillc.bsky.social)

THE SP+ COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 764 AFTER 14 WEEKS * Teams that would be projected favorites over Purdue: Tarleton State, Yale, SEMO, SC State and Harding * Teams that would be favorites over Kent State: Dayton, Indiana Wesleyan, Bemidji State, N Central * Ohio State-Oberlin check: Buckeyes -143.5

bsky.app

Most of the other models have us between 25th and 50th (usually in the 30’s).

It’s not personal, but it feels that way. you’d think a math model would have our backs out of professional courtesy.

I’m curious where we do badly (field position for sure)

• If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
• If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
• If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
• If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
• If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

According to College Football Data, our offense is 17th and our defense is 35th. Special Teams must be terrible.

Team turnovers had us 53rd. That’s one factor. We really didn’t get many takeaways

College Football Stats - College FB Team Turnover Margin per Game | TeamRankings.com

College Football turnover margin per game, by team.

www.teamrankings.com

Net field position is 80th

BCF Toys - 2024 Field Position Value

www.bcftoys.com

Offensive starting field position is #111 .

We’re #71 in success rate on defense, and #31 on offense. The hole in our passing defense is the culprit there. Offense is good passing—average rushing success rate.

We’re pretty good at drive finishing on offense (33rd in rate and 35th in points), but weak for a P4 team on defense there (50th in rate and 64th in points)

We’re in the top quarter for explosive plays on offense. Unfortunately, We’re in the wrong top quarter for explosive plays given up on defense.

So, turnovers, field position, and our pass defense are the big things to work on.

Interesting. My thoughts the lack of any pass rush was the biggest issue with our pass defense. The DBs covered much better this year than in past years. It appeared we played more man defense.

 

[yeti92]

There's not a huge difference (probably less than 10 yards) between our 80th starting field position rank and the top teams in that category. One very simple and easy way to pick up perhaps half that difference would be to tell Singleton to take a touchback on kickoffs whenever the opportunity presents itself. We haven't shown that we have the horses or skill on special teams to take it to the house or even get out beyond the 25 with any regularity.
There may be a few opponents where scouting might indicate a higher probability of success with running back kickoffs, but otherwise, we may as well take advantage of the current rules put in place to enhance player safety.

On this topic, what was the deal with the kickoff Singleton picked up off the bounce? Even if he signalled for a fair catch, he didn't catch it so I'd think it was a live ball. The ref blew the play dead as soon as he touched it and we got screwed on field position.

 

[MWBATL]

On this topic, what was the deal with the kickoff Singleton picked up off the bounce? Even if he signalled for a fair catch, he didn't catch it so I'd think it was a live ball. The ref blew the play dead as soon as he touched it and we got screwed on field position.

Yeah, that play completely confuse dme. I thought if you called for a fiar catch then you got it on the 25 no matter where you caught it. Is that wrong? Thge play was whisteled dead the moment he caught the ball, he wasn’t tackled at the 4...

 

[slugboy]

This isn’t a GT stat, but I felt I should share

The Athletic (@theathletic.bsky.social)

Jameis Winston set records Monday night. Winston is now the Browns' all-time single-game passing leader... and his 668 combined passing and interception return yards is the most by any QB in a game 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧. H/T OptaSTATS on X...

bsky.app

 

[CEB]

Yeah, that play completely confuse dme. I thought if you called for a fiar catch then you got it on the 25 no matter where you caught it. Is that wrong? Thge play was whisteled dead the moment he caught the ball, he wasn’t tackled at the 4...

I think They ruled that he signaled for fair catch, but since he failed to catch it, it is down where he possessed it.
I honestly could not see the signal (and I haven’t gone back to rewatch this one) but it struck me as odd that he would have signal since we have not done that all year!

 

[stinger78]

He was in fair territory and a KO is a free kick. It either needed to get into the EZ or be fielded. I can’t remember though, did ES attempt to catch the ball or did it hit the ground first? Either way, he had to cover it as it did not bounce into the EZ.

 

[slugboy]

He was in fair territory and a KO is a free kick. It either needed to get into the EZ or be fielded. I can’t remember though, did ES attempt to catch the ball or did it hit the ground first? Either way, he had to cover it as it did not bounce into the EZ.

It hit the ground first. If he fair catches the ball in the field of play, it goes to the 25.

 

[stinger78]

It hit the ground first. If he fair catches the ball in the field of play, it goes to the 25.

Thanks, don’t know that I’ve read the new KO rules.