An optimistic look at our basketball team...

bke1984

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So I'll preface this by saying that wins and losses are really what define a team, and this year we have not been very good in that regard. Our offense has been extremely frustrating to watch at times, and I'd be lying if I said I was happy with the season...

...but we're probably < 10 points away from being a bubble team for the NCAA tournament, and instead we're probably not even going to the NIT. All of these games could have easily gone the other direction (I'm not even mentioning the game on 12/6, because I'm trying to erase that from my memory):

11/27 - Marquette
1/3 - Notre Dame
1/7 - Syracuse
1/14 - Notre Dame
1/17 - Pitt
1/25 - BC
1/31 - NC State
2/4 - Duke

Pipe dream scenario:
We win all of those and we're 19-4 (9-2, ACC) and we're a shoe-in for the NCAA tournament right now. This was never going to happen though...very rare that you win every close game

Not so unrealistic scenario:
We beat Marquette, beat ND once, beat Syracuse, BC, and NC State, but still fall in close games to Pitt, ND second time, and Duke. Now we'd be 16-7 (6-5 ACC) with three upcoming winnable games against FSU, VT, and Clemson (twice). Under this scenario it's not that unfeasible that we could have finished at 19-11 (9-9 ACC) and been an NCAA bubble team and guaranteed in the NIT.

All that being said, we need to win more games. But I don't think it's that far fetched that we could be a 20-win team as soon as next year if we can just figure out a way to win a few close ones. This typically comes down to kids making plays rather than coaches drawing them up.

Again, not saying I'm happy with what's going on, but maybe it's a little too soon to start paying three basketball coaches as the same time...
 
awbuzz

awbuzz

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Nice view. Wish the "unrealistic" is what had happened (okay really wish for the pipe dream :) .

Unfortunately neither are what did happen :(

Here's to winning and getting the#10 seed for the ACC!
 

collegeballfan

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That would be the 2016-2017 season if I read you correctly Peacone.
The team as of today would be :
Travis Jorgenson
Josh Heath
Corey Heyward
Tadric Jackson
Quinton Stephens
Abdoulaye Gueye
Ben Lammers
Sylvester Ogbomda
 
orientalnc

orientalnc

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@bke1984 I want some of whatever you are drinking.

An optimistic look at our season says we might win four of the next seven games and have a 6-12 ACC record. With UNC and Louisville trying to improve their NCAA seeding, they are not going to look past us. But, to win those four games we have to beat a team twice that thinks they are a bubble team right now - Clemson. You could make a legitimate case for them. They have a legit chance to win five of the final seven games to be 11-7 in the conference and 19-11 overall. If they win one ACCT game and close with a record of 20-12, I think the NCAA has to consider them. So, we are foolish to think we will walk into their building and win, or that they will not play us tough in McCamish.

We are playing really good basketball compared to 2-3 weeks ago. That said, we beat Wake Saturday. That was not Duke or UVA. A realistic thing for us to expect is that we win three of the final games and get a #12 seed. I actually think that is where we belong. That finish will probably match us against Wake on Thursday in the ACCT, then we would play the #5 seed (UNC or Louisville, or maybe ND) on Friday. While I doubt it will happen, I would not be terribly surprised if we won twice in the ACCT.
 
dtm1997

dtm1997

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collegeballfan said:
That would be the 2016-2017 season if I read you correctly Peacone.
The team as of today would be :
Travis Jorgenson
Josh Heath
Corey Heyward
Tadric Jackson
Quinton Stephens
Abdoulaye Gueye
Ben Lammers
Sylvester Ogbomda
Click to expand...
I like these players and I think a few have a ton of potential to still develop, but that 2016 class should have 1-2 FR capable of being starters on day 1, or @Peacone36 will prove prophetic. We'd have 2 perimeter players capable of big minutes & scoring - Travis & Tadric - assuming they're development trajectory gets there.
 

bke1984

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Please don't misunderstand what I'm saying here. If you were around me during the games you probably wouldn't even believe that I wrote the post above. For the most part, we have been down right abysmal on offense this year. Maybe the worst offense I've ever seen Tech have. However, I think what is lost in all of this mess is how amazing we've been on defense. Granted, missing as many shots as we do gives us a much better chance at offensive rebounds, but we're not giving up a whole lot of points. Aside from a few instances, we've still have been in just about every game we've played until the last minute (including the Duke game).

This is the same argument I made during some of the past few football seasons when everyone was ready to ditch CPJ. The difference between great seasons and bad seasons can literally be 5-6 plays here and there. The 2012 football season is one of the best examples: OT losses to VT and Miami were basically one-play games, and the mental letdown against MTSU probably doesn't happen if we win just one of those two...7-7 could have easily been 10-4. Back to basketball...let's say a few balls go through the net in the games listed above and it looks like we're improving rather than turning into a complete dumpster fire.

But we do eventually need to see results. If Gregory goes, I'm not going to be horribly upset. However, IMO paying two basketball coaches to NOT coach you while paying a third to do so is definitely not going to help the program either. We have to pay Gregory through 2017-2018 either way. I believe Hewitt comes off the payroll after next year, so let's maybe wait and see if it's another 6-12 season before we make decisions that just dig the hole even deeper.
 
Peacone36

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How much did the AA get for the Orange bowl? We have the cash. $650K is the buyout if what i have read is correct.
 
Peacone36

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dtm1997 said:
I like these players and I think a few have a ton of potential to still develop, but that 2016 class should have 1-2 FR capable of being starters on day 1, or @Peacone36 will prove prophetic. We'd have 2 perimeter players capable of big minutes & scoring - Travis & Tadric - assuming they're development trajectory gets there.
Click to expand...


@dtm1997 is correct as usual, that 16 class has some potential starters there. Pugh would probably start. Miller would probably start. Junior Jorgy would start over Frosh Gilbert IMHO and Junior Tadric would start over Frosh Robinson. Chris Lewis would have started day 1. Of course there could be some attrition, logic and current trends show its likely at least 1 of those players would transfer. I think one in particular is likely, but that is simply speculation on my part.
 
orientalnc

orientalnc

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Peacone36 said:
@dtm1997 is correct as usual, that 16 class has some potential starters there. Pugh would probably start. Miller would probably start. Junior Jorgy would start over Frosh Gilbert IMHO and Junior Tadric would start over Frosh Robinson. Chris Lewis would have started day 1. Of course there could be some attrition, logic and current trends show its likely at least 1 of those players would transfer. I think one in particular is likely, but that is simply speculation on my part.
Click to expand...
Of course, this assumes we actually sign some of those guys. I worry that BG's hot seat will inhibit that effort.
 

bke1984

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If the buyout is truly that low then it probably doesn't matter what any of us think. Best case right now is probably a 6-12 finish in conference, and I doubt that's good enough to save him at this point. Best hope would probably be a trip to the ACC tournament championship game.

If we do go that direction then I sure hope we have 2-3 guys in mind for the job before he's let go or we'll be right where we were in 2012.
 

RamblinRed

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Buyout is $650K if he is fired this year. $250K if he is fired after next season. $0 in 2 seasons.

GT basically went even on the Orange Bowl.
GT did just get $2.6M for the MD settlement.

RamblinRed
 

Eli

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No way we should recruit this poorly in basketball. It's a shame that our basketball program has fallen off so badly
 
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