An Open Letter to J Batt

[Root4GT]

THIS!!! The SEC rankings and SOS are self inflated!!! And because they always schedule weak OOC games it never gets challenged even when they lose all of the top 10 OOC games they played

And yet the computers rank them higher. Just shows computer rankings are no better than human ranking on the whole.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

And yet the computers rank them higher. Just shows computer rankings are no better than human ranking on the whole.

The computers rely on inputs from the same humans. The polls and rankings are all to generate drama, where drama = clicks and eyeballs which, of course, means money.

 

[MWBATL]

I am not referring to the performance of individual games. If we are going to compare “conferences”, let’s look at the total performance of the conference.

Here is the performance of each conference in play this year against ranked opponents:

ACC played 37 games against ranked opponents with a wpt of 0.324
SEC played 60 games against ranked opponents with a wpt of 0.283
B12 played 37 games against ranked opponents with a wpt of 0.270
B10 played 36 games against ranked opponents with a wet of 0.200
Pac12 played 56 games against ranked opponents with a wpt of 0.303

So, the ACC had the highest win rate but played at the lower end of the number of games. The SEC played the most ranked opponents but with a lower win rate. The PAC 12 ended in the middle.

Since so much is made of ACC 6 SEC 4, I’ll analyze that after dinner.

Does this eliminate all the inter-conference games?

If not, it just fuels the criticism that the SEC is over-rated and gets it hype form playing each other and NO ONE in OOC games.

 

[Vespidae]

But here's the problem with using the rankings for this analysis: the rankings are self-justifying. Why is Alabama ranked high? They beat Ole Miss and LSU. Why is LSU good? They beat Mizzou. Why is Mizzou good? They beat Tennessee. My point is that these SEC teams' entire resumes are predicated on wins against other SEC teams, and the committee will rank a mediocre team (like Tennessee) to justify their other rankings up the chain. The same applies for the ACC; FSU's schedule is supposedly "weak" because the committee arbitrarily decides that teams like Clemson and Lousiville make up a "weak" schedule, while playing garbage teams like Arkansas and Vandy is a "gauntlet".

I've become increasingly convinced that the ACC will collapse, but not because it is weak. I think the media narrative surrounding the conference is so influential and toxic that it will singlehandedly bring the conference down.

I just looked at the record for all conferences for the Top Four teams in non conference games and all are undefeated. I suppose the new criteria is Performance by Conferences against ranked non conference games?

That will take longer.

 

[stinger78]

But here's the problem with using the rankings for this analysis: the rankings are self-justifying. Why is Alabama ranked high? They beat Ole Miss and LSU. Why is LSU good? They beat Mizzou. Why is Mizzou good? They beat Tennessee. My point is that these SEC teams' entire resumes are predicated on wins against other SEC teams, and the committee will rank a mediocre team (like Tennessee) to justify their other rankings up the chain. The same applies for the ACC; FSU's schedule is supposedly "weak" because the committee arbitrarily decides that teams like Clemson and Lousiville make up a "weak" schedule, while playing garbage teams like Arkansas and Vandy is a "gauntlet".

I've become increasingly convinced that the ACC will collapse, but not because it is weak. I think the media narrative surrounding the conference is so influential and toxic that it will singlehandedly bring the conference down.

It all starts with The Narrative, which leads to preseason rankings, which leads to inflated SOS, which leads to The Narrative. Rinse, repeat.

 

[Vespidae]

It all starts with The Narrative, which leads to preseason rankings, which leads to inflated SOS, which leads to The Narrative. Rinse, repeat.

The lack of agreement on an objective criteria makes this impossible to discuss to anyone's satisfaction.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I am not referring to the performance of individual games. If we are going to compare “conferences”, let’s look at the total performance of the conference.

Here is the performance of each conference in play this year against ranked opponents:

ACC played 37 games against ranked opponents with a wpt of 0.324
SEC played 60 games against ranked opponents with a wpt of 0.283
B12 played 37 games against ranked opponents with a wpt of 0.270
B10 played 36 games against ranked opponents with a wet of 0.200
Pac12 played 56 games against ranked opponents with a wpt of 0.303

So, the ACC had the highest win rate but played at the lower end of the number of games. The SEC played the most ranked opponents but with a lower win rate. The PAC 12 ended in the middle.

Since so much is made of ACC 6 SEC 4, I’ll analyze that after dinner.

This is great until you look at the bias of who is put into the Top25. There have been reams of electronic paper covered with the joke that is the Top25 polls before, say, mid-season. Even then, many teams are not deserving. I've long been a proponent of no poll until half the conference games have been played. That way, everyone is starting from a level playing field. When 6-7 SEC teams start the season in the Top25 based on nothing, and halfway through the season only 3 are still in the Top25, that's telling. It happens with other conferences too, but not quite as much as the SEC and B1G.

 

[Root4GT]

This is great until you look at the bias of who is put into the Top25. There have been reams of electronic paper covered with the joke that is the Top25 polls before, say, mid-season. Even then, many teams are not deserving. I've long been a proponent of no poll until half the conference games have been played. That way, everyone is starting from a level playing field. When 6-7 SEC teams start the season in the Top25 based on nothing, and halfway through the season only 3 are still in the Top25, that's telling. It happens with other conferences too, but not quite as much as the SEC and B1G.

Never going to happen. Polls sell, use to be magazines, now they generate clicks and discussion which is good for advertisers. There is extreme bias in the early polls that has a carry over effect all season.

 

[forensicbuzz]

The lack of agreement on an objective criteria makes this impossible to discuss to anyone's satisfaction.

This I agree with you on. There is no way to have a set of objective criteria to base an evaluation on. The only way is for every team to play every other team. Save that, the best way is to just have an open playoff. Here's an idea...

play 10 conference games. Every team without a losing record (5-5 and up) goes into a single elimination playoff. Seatings are based on w/l record. Play as many games as is necessary to determine the last team standing.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Never going to happen. Polls sell, use to be magazines, now they generate clicks and discussion which is good for advertisers. There is extreme bias in the early polls that has a carry over effect all season.

Without a doubt.

 

[Root4GT]

This I agree with you on. There is no way to have a set of objective criteria to base an evaluation on. The only way is for every team to play every other team. Save that, the best way is to just have an open playoff. Here's an idea...

play 10 conference games. Every team without a losing record (5-5 and up) goes into a single elimination playoff. Seatings are based on w/l record. Play as many games as is necessary to determine the last team standing.

That presumes the Networks actually want a National Champion. They actually prefer having 4 teams almost every year in the CFP that are big names with strong Regional/National followings.

 

[forensicbuzz]

That presumes the Networks actually want a National Champion. They actually prefer having 4 teams almost every year in the CFP that are big names with strong Regional/National followings.

I'm not sure I would agree with that if we're looking at this type of tournament. Look at how much noise underdogs get in the NCAA Tourney. People would come out of the woodwork for underdogs...maybe.

 

[ThatGuy]

The computers rely on inputs from the same humans. The polls and rankings are all to generate drama, where drama = clicks and eyeballs which, of course, means money.

As we used to say, "Garbage in, garbage out."

 

[stinger78]

That presumes the Networks actually want a National Champion. They actually prefer having 4 teams almost every year in the CFP that are big names with strong Regional/National followings.

I think they want both, but as long as they continue to influence the team choice as they are it’s a joke. You can make a marginally persuasive argument when there is a 1-loss P5 conference champ and a 1-loss P5 runner-up. There is no argument when there is an undefeated P5 champ and a 1-loss P5 champ. The undefeated team has done all they can do.

The networks can have their playoff but the national title needs to remain up for vote afterwards. Or, they can award a CFP champ and let the MNC be a separate thing.

 

[MWBATL]

The lack of agreement on an objective criteria makes this impossible to discuss to anyone's satisfaction.

Maybe we should just use teams’ W-L records….no…too obvious

 

[Vespidae]

Maybe we should just use teams’ W-L records….no…too obvious

Then Liberty should be considered. 13-0.

 

[slugboy]

The Soccer (futbol) leagues in the US won’t do relegation because it would destroy their investment value. Baseball won’t do it with their minor leagues, and they have a real commissioner.
Fun hot stove topic, though.

 

[MacDaddy2]

I appreciate the general thoughts of this thread. The relegation premise would be a non-starter for anyone responsible for managing the budget for an athletic department. The revenue loss from moving to tier 2 would crush athletic budgets. Why do you think OSU and Wazzou is fighting so hard for control of the 2023-2024 money in the crumbling Pac12?

 

[ibeattetris]

Then Liberty should be considered. 13-0.

They should be. You are finally thinking correctly.

 

[UgaBlows]

Then Liberty should be considered. 13-0.

A G5 team that beat literally nobody? Why? Because they run a cool offense? Nobody wants to watch them get dismantled by Alabama or whoever.