ACC - Odds to Win Conference 2021

[Augusta_Jacket]

Our over under on wins is currently at 4.5 wins

That's exactly where I'd set it. I see us as a 4-5 win team with major upside. I think the floor is 4 wins but with a little luck or the team finding itself a year ahead of schedule on development we could win 6-7 games.

 

[GTrob21]

Same here @Augusta_Jacket . I look at this team and at minimum, I see 4 wins. But I think we have the potential to go bowling this upcoming year. I really want to see progression in our execution on offense, and especially on Defense. I am hopeful that we will see a marketed improvement with our DL and our back 4.

 

[forensicbuzz]

15-0 BABY!!! Ain't no one gonna sink this boat!

 

[senoiajacket]

BYU game

That offense doesn't fit the narrative of "pro style, we will get you ready for the NFL" based on my short viewing. Of course, maybe I am not qualified to say that as I don't watch the NFL much anymore. I do like what they do and would love to see us run it, but if you are selling "we run an NFL offense" I don's see how you can run that.

 

[Coloradojacket]

That offense doesn't fit the narrative of "pro style, we will get you ready for the NFL" based on my short viewing. Of course, maybe I am not qualified to say that as I don't watch the NFL much anymore. I do like what they do and would love to see us run it, but if you are selling "we run an NFL offense" I don's see how you can run that.

Well, you can say, "we run an NFL offense" and keep winning only 3 games a year. CRF did not run an NFL offense. We will never compete running an NFL offense. We can't recruit enough players to do so.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I don't disagree with those odds of Tech winning the ACC. I do think we have a fighting chance to win the Coastal, though. I'd say, 7/1 on that. Anyone else want to speculate on our chances of winning the Coastal?

I think we will win four. I do not think we will be competitive in the Coastal. It is up for grabs between UNC, Miami, and who knows who the dark horse will turn out to be.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That is a very long time ago. Now how about the 6-0 record in the Coastal Division. Anyone who thinks we have reasonable odds to win the Coastal Division don’t win a lot of bets. Again I hope I am wrong but there is no evidence to support a different point of view.

What does "Now how about the 6-0 record in the Coastal Division" mean. Who is saying we're going to go 6-0 inside the Coastal and/or win the division? You might be arguing with yourself.

For historical perspective, about 70% of the time, the Coastal Division Champion has gone either 5-3 or 6-2. So if you can try and find a way to win 5 or 6 ACC games, you're at least in the conversation. Unfortunately for us, our schedule is really tough this year with 5 teams who were ranked last year and only 1 team (Duke) that was legitimately bad (plus NIU and Kennesaw State).

Our offensive statistics increased about 50% last year over the year before. If we improve another 10% this year, I think we can win 5-7 games. Beat Duke, NIU, and Kennesaw State. Then we have 4 teams who were basically 0.500 teams last year (BC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh). Can we steal one from someone like UNC and how many of those 0.500 teams can we beat...that will determine if we have a good season or not. Its not can we beat Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, etc. - its can we beat the average teams and below average teams. That's all we have to do to finish around 0.500.

 

[senoiajacket]

Well, you can say, "we run an NFL offense" and keep winning only 3 games a year. CRF did not run an NFL offense. We will never compete running an NFL offense. We can't recruit enough players to do so.

Oh, don’t get me wrong. I agree with you for the most part. I was just pointing out that the costal offense doesn’t fit the current narrative that is a big part of what we seem to be hanging our hat on. I hope we (you & I) are wrong & they (the coaches) can make it work, at least enough to get us back to 7-9 wins a year .......

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

What does "Now how about the 6-0 record in the Coastal Division" mean. Who is saying we're going to go 6-0 inside the Coastal and/or win the division? You might be arguing with yourself.

For historical perspective, about 70% of the time, the Coastal Division Champion has gone either 5-3 or 6-2. So if you can try and find a way to win 5 or 6 ACC games, you're at least in the conversation. Unfortunately for us, our schedule is really tough this year with 5 teams who were ranked last year and only 1 team (Duke) that was legitimately bad (plus NIU and Kennesaw State).

Our offensive statistics increased about 50% last year over the year before. If we improve another 10% this year, I think we can win 5-7 games. Beat Duke, NIU, and Kennesaw State. Then we have 4 teams who were basically 0.500 teams last year (BC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh). Can we steal one from someone like UNC and how many of those 0.500 teams can we beat...that will determine if we have a good season or not. Its not can we beat Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, etc. - its can we beat the average teams and below average teams. That's all we have to do to finish around 0.500.

I really think improving the other side of the ball is a faster way to a winning record but none the less, offense still needs to improve as you say.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I really think improving the other side of the ball is a faster way to a winning record but none the less, offense still needs to improve as you say.

Its a valid point. And then don't forget about the kicking position, which cost us really an untold number of points a game. We missed 18 points last year from missed kicks (!), but often times it forced changes to our offense as we approached the red zone, knowing we didn't have a kicker. So I'd argue if we just made 70% of our kicks, we would have kicked a lot more often and scored a lot more points.

And penalties. Sigh.

 

[UgaBlows]

I think we will win four. I do not think we will be competitive in the Coastal. It is up for grabs between UNC, Miami, and who knows who the dark horse will turn out to be.

One or both of those teams will dissapoint and underwhelm

 

[first&ten]

Same here @Augusta_Jacket . I look at this team and at minimum, I see 4 wins. But I think we have the potential to go bowling this upcoming year. I really want to see progression in our execution on offense, and especially on Defense. I am hopeful that we will see a marketed improvement with our DL and our back 4.

I was thinking we could win 5 games this season to show improvement. If we only get to 4 wins I fear the bottom falls out of this coaching staff. KSU might beat Tech if we have a off game!

 

[Root4GT]

What does "Now how about the 6-0 record in the Coastal Division" mean. Who is saying we're going to go 6-0 inside the Coastal and/or win the division? You might be arguing with yourself.

For historical perspective, about 70% of the time, the Coastal Division Champion has gone either 5-3 or 6-2. So if you can try and find a way to win 5 or 6 ACC games, you're at least in the conversation. Unfortunately for us, our schedule is really tough this year with 5 teams who were ranked last year and only 1 team (Duke) that was legitimately bad (plus NIU and Kennesaw State).

Our offensive statistics increased about 50% last year over the year before. If we improve another 10% this year, I think we can win 5-7 games. Beat Duke, NIU, and Kennesaw State. Then we have 4 teams who were basically 0.500 teams last year (BC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh). Can we steal one from someone like UNC and how many of those 0.500 teams can we beat...that will determine if we have a good season or not. Its not can we beat Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia, etc. - its can we beat the average teams and below average teams. That's all we have to do to finish around 0.500.

The question was what are our odds of wining the Coastal. I said at best 50-1 and likely much worse. My point is we will lose to Clemson near certainly and be heavy underdogs to UNC and Miami who were both much better than we were last year and both are returning excellent QBs with a wealth of talent around them. If we win 5-7 games our odds of winning the Coastal Division are zero. If you disagree let me know how we will win 6 conference games with our schedule. Likely we will be favored against Duke and range from 14-5 point underdogs against the rest. Basically to win the Coastal Division we would need to win at least 6 Conference games. Well there are 3 losses staring us in the face. 50-1 is generous.

 

[Silk3]

The question was what are our odds of wining the Coastal. I said at best 50-1 and likely much worse. My point is we will lose to Clemson near certainly and be heavy underdogs to UNC and Miami who were both much better than we were last year and both are returning excellent QBs with a wealth of talent around them. If we win 5-7 games our odds of winning the Coastal Division are zero. If you disagree let me know how we will win 6 conference games with our schedule. Likely we will be favored against Duke and range from 14-5 point underdogs against the rest. Basically to win the Coastal Division we would need to win at least 6 Conference games. Well there are 3 losses staring us in the face. 50-1 is generous.

Thats why its 50-1 and not 5-1

 

[GTBlaze]

Huge CGC fan but if we don’t go bowling this season, I am off the CGC train.

I get that we won’t hang with Clemson, ugh, NC but all others should be winnable or at least very competitive.

everybody is complaining about the vanilla spring game. I’m glad it was vanilla with no injuries

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The question was what are our odds of wining the Coastal. I said at best 50-1 and likely much worse. My point is we will lose to Clemson near certainly and be heavy underdogs to UNC and Miami who were both much better than we were last year and both are returning excellent QBs with a wealth of talent around them. If we win 5-7 games our odds of winning the Coastal Division are zero. If you disagree let me know how we will win 6 conference games with our schedule. Likely we will be favored against Duke and range from 14-5 point underdogs against the rest. Basically to win the Coastal Division we would need to win at least 6 Conference games. Well there are 3 losses staring us in the face. 50-1 is generous.

We play 8 conference games.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

GT absolutely has wasted so many opportunities in the recent past that it just pains me to even think about it. The Coastal has been a dumpster fire and we had a Hall of Fame type coach who couldn’t take advantage. If we get Johnson a decade or even 5 years earlier we become the Coastal powerhouse. Instead we fit in perfectly with the mediocrity of all other Coastal schools.

Collins is doing what has to be done but the question is can he coach? The Coastal is there for the taking over the next decade as no one is building a dynasty. As for this year, it’s gonna come down to our defense. If we can’t stop anyone then the offensive system doesn’t matter. But, if our offensive system continues to look like it has then Collins better bring in an offensive guy with a track record or else the recruiting hype will end.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

One or both of those teams will dissapoint and underwhelm

It would not be the first time for either of them, the problem is that there is a very real possibility that Tech will struggle mightily as well.

 

[Root4GT]

We play 8 conference games.

While true we only play 6 Divisional games. We know we will lose one non divisional game and will be huge underdogs against UNC and Miami.

 

[gville_jacket]

That is a very long time ago. Now how about the 6-0 record in the Coastal Division. Anyone who thinks we have reasonable odds to win the Coastal Division don’t win a lot of bets. Again I hope I am wrong but there is no evidence to support a different point of view.

Not saying you’re wrong in this case but gamblers who win big don’t do so by picking the winner of Alabama vs Mercer. They win big by picking a 3 win team to then win the division the next year. The hidden secret is that you always lose more times than you win, but just try to win more money than you lose. That’s where odds come in and is the subject of this thread.