ACC Discussion 2020-21

bwelbo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,894
Good analysis, except the tied for 5th place part. There are 7 teams with 5 or fewer conference loses now. We have 6 loses. Not sure we are ahead of them in the standings.

If we win, we go to 7-6 which is tied with fuke for 8th.

/

Mmmmmm

Virginia has 11 wins.
Florida State and Virginia Tech 8.
Clemson, UNC, and Duke all have 7 wins already. But after tomorrow, UNC and Duke could easily be 7-6 and 7-7, which puts us ahead of both of them.

That leaves Virginia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Clemson (7-5 who doesn't play tomorrow) ahead of us. If Louisville beats UNC in this scenario, then they'll have 8 wins.

So that would put us 6th at 7-6, slightly behind Clemson at 7-5...and only because **** the ACC and Covid we couldn't play Boston College a few days ago. Otherwise we'd be in 5th.
 

LibertyTurns

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,371
Call me crazy but the loss the of the BC game may hurt. We could have been 8-6 in ACC if we beat da U, then we could have “gone Covid” and skipped a road VT and either hibernated the last 2 games for a good ACCT slot or decided to play either Wake to finish the season maybe getting to 9-6. Take our chances at making the tourney from there.

Yes, we’re miles ahead if we beat VT on road and Dook at home, but Dook seems to have our number & VT is a road game against a good team.

We didn’t play the Covid game very well this year. We ended up with a top heavy schedule and scheduled that Mercer game on 2 days rest having not practiced.
 

bwelbo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,894
Call me crazy but the loss the of the BC game may hurt. We could have been 8-6 in ACC if we beat da U, then we could have “gone Covid” and skipped a road VT and either hibernated the last 2 games for a good ACCT slot or decided to play either Wake to finish the season maybe getting to 9-6. Take our chances at making the tourney from there.

Yes, we’re miles ahead if we beat VT on road and Dook at home, but Dook seems to have our number & VT is a road game against a good team.

We didn’t play the Covid game very well this year. We ended up with a top heavy schedule and scheduled that Mercer game on 2 days rest having not practiced.

Yea 1 day off before Mercer...after a 4 overtime game. Stupid. Then exactly to your point - we have not played a bottom 4 team yet, but we've played 4 games against the top 4......we've played 1 game against the bottom 5, 6 games against the top 5. **** the ACC and **** Covid. And that's also where models like the old RPI or NET ratings should help, but they obviously don't.
 

g0lftime

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,601
This covid year has really messed up what could have been Pastner's best season with a veteran team. Two early losses to teams we would likely beat if we play them now and the schedule compression recently has made this a difficult task to make post season NCAA. We will lose so many key players next year. This should have been THE year. I hope our guys can still get there.
 

bwelbo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,894
Call me crazy but the loss the of the BC game may hurt. We could have been 8-6 in ACC if we beat da U, then we could have “gone Covid” and skipped a road VT and either hibernated the last 2 games for a good ACCT slot or decided to play either Wake to finish the season maybe getting to 9-6. Take our chances at making the tourney from there.

Yes, we’re miles ahead if we beat VT on road and Dook at home, but Dook seems to have our number & VT is a road game against a good team.

We didn’t play the Covid game very well this year. We ended up with a top heavy schedule and scheduled that Mercer game on 2 days rest having not practiced.

You’re crazy.
 

Techster

Helluva Engineer
Messages
13,230
This covid year has really messed up what could have been Pastner's best season with a veteran team. Two early losses to teams we would likely beat if we play them now and the schedule compression recently has made this a difficult task to make post season NCAA. We will lose so many key players next year. This should have been THE year. I hope our guys can still get there.

I'm fine with running the ACC tournament and getting an automatic bid.
 

g0lftime

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,601
FSU is so deep that they should be favored. Duke and UNC now have improved. UVA is good on D but games are usually close with that style and teams hang around that can upset them. It will be difficult to win The ACCT. So many equal teams and we don't have any depth at center. Pastner needs to work Howard or Saba into some minutes down the stretch even if only a few.
 

Jacketman99

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
603
It sucks how our schedule has played out where we have for the most part only played the top of the league. We have not had the opportunity to fatten the win column by playing the bottom half. I really hate that we let some opportunities slip by (UVA, Clemson, Duke) and those 2 losses to open the season loom large. We need to finish the season strong and not lose any that we shouldn't while picking up one or two where we will be underdogs. We have the talent and experience to win any remaining game on our schedule. I'm hoping we go on a tear.
 

gt24

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
114
if UNC ends up a bubble team, how important are the 2 freebie wins (northeastern and marquette) they added on short notice in feb?

Screen Shot 2021-02-20 at 3.05.20 PM.png
 

bwelbo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
14,894
When was the last time that we felt like we had a legitimate chance to make the final 4 in the ACC Tournament and not be surprised if it happens?
 

gt24

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
114
Because we tried to make up our missed ACC games during our time instead?

If you're talking this week, BC canceled pretty much day of.
feel like we need to get BC or NCST game rescheduled. go thru the remaining ACC schedules for GT and UNC and even 1 single extra ACC win could be the difference in final conference rankings. and in a screwy year like this, seems like committee could use that metric (conference record) as a tie-breaker? especially when combined with we won the head-to-head.
 

lv20gt

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,767
I don't think those wins significantly change UNC's tournament profile. UNC is basically what we would be had we beaten State and Mercer. They are 1-6 against Q1, 5-1 against Q2, 5-0 Q3 and 2-0 Q4. Had we won those two game we'd have been 1-6, 4-0, 5-0, 2-0.

Had we won those two games I'd believe we were comfortably in and I don't think a couple of extra Q3 wins would make much of a difference.

I think the bigger advantage is building some momentum for the program going forward more so than as a resume builder.
 

lv20gt

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,767
UNC absolutely destroyed UL. No sympathy for me as UL was on the other end of the scheduling dynamic when they played us.

Also makes our win against UNC look that much better
 
Top