ACC Baseball Tournament

[FredJacket]

The ACC tournament starts in exactly one week. One weekend of a FULL ACC schedule left to sort out the ACC Tournament seedings and pools.

I NAILED the VT/BC missing the tournament thing! Technically, VT is not yet mathematically eliminated. VT would need a sweep @ UNC… plus some help by at least one other sweep occur AND then have a tiebreaker get them in. I’d say it is a safe bet to say VT won’t get there and the ACCT field is set.

Now for my update on predicted finish (current record)
#1) UNC (19-8) - Predicting 22-8. Remaining series (VT).
#2) CLEM (19-8) - Predicting 21-9. Remaining series (@ Pitt).
#3) DUKE (17-9) - Predicting 19-10. Remaining series (@ GT).
#4) NCST (18-9) - Predicting 19-11. Remaining series (@ FSU).
#5) LOU (15-12) - Predicting 17-13. Remaining series (ND). I’m predicting 2-1 series for LOU, but I could see them sweeping ND. That would mean they played last half of ACC schedule with at a 12-3 clip.
#6) MIA (14-13) – Predicting 17-13. Remaining series (BC). A sweep of BC at home would give Miami 7 straight conference wins.
#7) FSU (14-12) - Predicting 16-13. Remaining series (NCST).
#8) UVA (11-16) – Predicting 13-17. Remaining series (@ WF). UVA rockets (tic) past GT, WF, Pitt to #8 seed.
#9) GT (12-15) – Predicting 13-17. Remaining series (Duke).
#10) WF (11-16) – Predicting 12-18. Remaining series (UVA).
#11) ND (11-16) – Predicting 12-18 Remaining series (@ LOU).
#12) Pitt (11-16) – Predicting 12-18. Remaining series (CLEM).
VT and BC miss the tournament.

Predicted ACCT Pools:
A: UNC, UVA, PITT
B: CLEM, FSU, ND
C: DUKE, MIA, WF
D: NCST, LOU, GT

For review… About a week ago, I predicted this:
#1) UNC Predicting 22-8.
#2) CLEM Predicting 21-9.
#3) NCST Predicting 19-11.
#4 DUKE Predicting 17-12.
#5) LOU Predicting 16-14.
#6) FSU Predicting 15-14.
#7) MIA Predicting 15-15.
#8) GT Predicting 14-16
#9) WF Predicting 14-16
#10) ND Predicting 13-17
#11) Pitt Predicting 13-17.
#12) UVA Predicting 12-18.
VT and BC miss the tournament.

 

[FredJacket]

UNC beat VT today. So... official now. ACCT field is set. BC & VT fail to get in.

All 12 of the others can still be ACC Champions!!

 

[RoosterJacket]

I just posted the updated standings in the ACC Baseball thread. I still think I’d like to finish in one of the following seeds: 6, 7, 10, 11, 12. My reasoning being I feel like there’s not a huge difference between the 1-6 seeds, so if we can avoid being in a pool with two of those teams, our chances are much better.

I don’t feel like the ACC truly has any dominant pitchers this year where I feel like we have no chance. We already beat Griffin Roberts of WF and he’s probably the best arm in the ACC. We roughed up Brian Brown of NCST who has the best ERA of any starter. Then we have Curry and Thomas who on any given day can be lights out.

 

[FredJacket]

I just posted the updated standings in the ACC Baseball thread. I still think I’d like to finish in one of the following seeds: 6, 7, 10, 11, 12. My reasoning being I feel like there’s not a huge difference between the 1-6 seeds, so if we can avoid being in a pool with two of those teams, our chances are much better.

I don’t feel like the ACC truly has any dominant pitchers this year where I feel like we have no chance. We already beat Griffin Roberts of WF and he’s probably the best arm in the ACC. We roughed up Brian Brown of NCST who has the best ERA of any starter. Then we have Curry and Thomas who on any given day can be lights out.

I agree with that. We're #8 now (alone there). Mathematically... 6th is not possible. 7th very unlikely...would require us to sweep Duke AND BC to win these final 2 over Miami. Really seems like 8th or 9th is where we'll end up.

If ACCT started today (it doesn't )... here would be the pools:
A: UNC, GT, UVA
B: CLEM, MIA, PITT
C: NCST, FSU, WF
D: DUKE, LOU, ND

Seems the hottest teams right now (based on winning ACC games recently...agnostic to who they beat) are: Louisville, Miami, Clemson

 

[RoosterJacket]

I agree with that. We're #8 now (alone there). Mathematically... 6th is not possible. 7th very unlikely...would require us to sweep Duke AND BC to win these final 2 over Miami. Really seems like 8th or 9th is where we'll end up.

If ACCT started today (it doesn't )... here would be the pools:
A: UNC, GT, UVA
B: CLEM, MIA, PITT
C: NCST, FSU, WF
D: DUKE, LOU, ND

Seems the hottest teams right now (based on winning ACC games recently...agnostic to who they beat) are: Louisville, Miami, Clemson

Good catch with 6th being not an option due to FSU having one game rained out with Duke earlier this season.

Also, I messed up—I’d prefer us to be 7, 8, 11, 12. The 9 and 10 seeds get put with two teams within the top 6. My fault on that. So I’d be okay with that UNC, UVA pool. Although that LHP for UVA made us look pretty bad.

 

[senoiajacket]

Good catch with 6th being not an option due to FSU having one game rained out with Duke earlier this season.

Also, I messed up—I’d prefer us to be 7, 8, 11, 12. The 9 and 10 seeds get put with two teams within the top 6. My fault on that. So I’d be okay with that UNC, UVA pool. Although that LHP for UVA made us look pretty bad.

Maybe they would “save” the LHP for UNC?

 

[RoosterJacket]

Maybe they would “save” the LHP for UNC?

And depending on when we play next week and who UVA is pitching this last series, the LHP may not even be available to pitch against us. Of course same could be applied to us if we were to face UNC on Tuesday, CT would not be ready to go against them.

 

[FredJacket]

Pretty sure, Ga Tech is locked into 8th place in ACC now. For ACCT, that means we'll be in a pool with #1 and #12 seeds.

#1 will be CLEMSON if:
Clemson beats Pitt AND VT beats UNC tomorrow (Sat)

...if that doesn't happen, UNC will be #1

#12 will be one of WF, ND, PITT, UVA

I like what @RoosterJacket mentioned earlier.... this is a good thing. Take our chances against a really good #1 seed.. whoever that is... win that "single" game and see what happens with that lower seed. Not saying it will be scheduled in that order...that is all still TBD; but we're IN, so... we can still WIN!

 

[The Doddfather]

Pretty sure, Ga Tech is locked into 8th place in ACC now. For ACCT, that means we'll be in a pool with #1 and #12 seeds.

#1 will be CLEMSON if:
Clemson beats Pitt AND VT beats UNC tomorrow (Sat)

...if that doesn't happen, UNC will be #1

#12 will be one of WF, ND, PITT, UVA

I like what @RoosterJacket mentioned earlier.... this is a good thing. Take our chances against a really good #1 seed.. whoever that is... win that "single" game and see what happens with that lower seed. Not saying it will be scheduled in that order...that is all still TBD; but we're IN, so... we can still WIN!

I was just thinking the same thing in that it looks like we are locked in at 8th in conference tourney and 8th overall after tourney barring some shakeup (possibly from uva). Do you think a win tomorrow + 1 ACC Tourney win gets us a 3 seed, or will it take 2 win in the tourney?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

OK, we play UNC and Pitt (assuming UNC beats VT today).

Given the way the seeds were played last year, the lower two seeds play first. So we get Pitt first. Then we'd get UNC second. And be UNC's second game also since they play the lowest seed first. Nice as it gets.

Probably a Tuesday/Wednesday and Friday start. Glad CT only pitched 82 pitches yesterday. Would be tougher on X going from Thursday to Tuesday.

I don't know the rules, only going off what happened last year ...... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_Coast_Conference_Baseball_Tournament

 

[FredJacket]

OK, we play UNC and Pitt (assuming UNC beats VT today).

Given the way the seeds were played last year, the lower two seeds play first. So we get Pitt first. Then we'd get UNC second. And be UNC's second game also since they play the lowest seed first. Nice as it gets.

Probably a Tuesday/Wednesday and Friday start. Glad CT only pitched 82 pitches yesterday. Would be tougher on X going from Thursday to Tuesday.

I don't know the rules, only going off what happened last year ...... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_Coast_Conference_Baseball_Tournament

I do not know exactly how the ACCT tournament schedule and sequencing is done either. The only thing I could find was only a small piece of the puzzle... the #1 seed gets first choice of its "preferred day off". The strange thing about the way the is worded is there are 2 days off. Each team only plays 2 games Tues-Fri. So...pretty useless in trying to see what will happen.

Some information from last year. Some teams (GT was one) were scheduled to play 2 days in a row. The schedule got messed up due to weather (only one game was played on Wed). The #1 seed (Louisville) did not play at all until Thurs. Had they won their pool...they (as the #1 seed who theoretically had some choice in the matter) could have played 4 straight days. And my favorite part is FSU won the tournament as the #8 seed. As @GTNavyNuke said....the #1 v #8 game came 2nd for both of those teams. That deciding game to get out of pool play for FSU was their win over Louisville on Friday.

All that to say... who really knows. I guess the schedule will come out tomorrow. Maybe they get it together tonight.

 

[MWBATL]

Even if we win our pool, it is VERY hard to imagine a realistic scenario where we can advance any further than that.....(hoping I am wrong again!)

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Looks like we finished in 8th place, which is about a worst case scenario. Because that puts us in the same pool as the #1 seed (Clemson and UNCheat tied, but both swept us). The other team is the #12, which is Pittsburgh, whom we nearly swept. But man, we gotta face 1 of 2 teams who combined we went 0-6 against.

I guess he Fredoptimism take is that we’re due against those 2 teams and if we can steal 1 game we stand a good chance to get out of our bracket.

 

[THWG]

Looks like we finished in 8th place, which is about a worst case scenario. Because that puts us in the same pool as the #1 seed (Clemson and UNCheat tied, but both swept us). The other team is the #12, which is Pittsburgh, whom we nearly swept. But man, we gotta face 1 of 2 teams who combined we went 0-6 against.

I guess he Fredoptimism take is that we’re due against those 2 teams and if we can steal 1 game we stand a good chance to get out of our bracket.

We will play UNC. We should get a day off in between games and CT will just have to pitch a day earlier.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We will play UNC. We should get a day off in between games and CT will just have to pitch a day earlier.

We just beat Duke 2-1 who just beat UNCheat 2-1 the prior week. So I’m saying there’s a chance.

 

[THWG]

We just beat Duke 2-1 who just beat UNCheat 2-1 the prior week. So I’m saying there’s a chance.

I think there's more than a chance. I'm thinking that we win the tourney.

 

[FredJacket]

I think there's more than a chance. I'm thinking that we win the tourney.

Since the ACC went to this format, the #8 seed has won 100% of the time.

 

[FredJacket]

@RoosterJacket or anyone who cares...

Explain the UVA/ND tiebreaker thing to me. If I understand tiebreaker, seems ND should hold tiebreaker & it should be #10 ND & #11 UVA. ...because ND has 1 win over Clemson & UVA none. ND didn't play UNC.

 

[RoosterJacket]

@RoosterJacket or anyone who cares...

Explain the UVA/ND tiebreaker thing to me. If I understand tiebreaker, seems ND should hold tiebreaker & it should be #10 ND & #11 UVA. ...because ND has 1 win over Clemson & UVA none. ND didn't play UNC.

I’m pretty stumped on this one. Here’s the only rules I could find. They’re a few years old but I’d imagine probably still pretty accurate. If I counted correctly, I think both teams even went 7-11 within their own division. It sure reads to me that they would do the common opponent with best record and that would’ve come down to Clemson series like you stated.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/acc/sports/m-basebl/auto_pdf/06baseseeding.pdf

 

[Deleted member 2897]

You guys are missing it - UNCheat wins all tiebreakers. Swoffird had that put in.