ACC AD Meetings - New Revenue Distribution Model?

[stinger 1957]

I doubt any school will voluntarily walk away from the ACC without knowing where they are going. Too many people close to the realignment say there is ongoing talk behind the scenes for me not to believe that is more than likely happening. I'm convinced at this point that cfb is going to have 3 major conferences at the highest level made up of approx 60 schools give or take some. There is no one source or action that is already out there that brings me to say what I say, it comes from having my head in this for some time and processing all the input that I say what I say. Certainly I'm not the gospel on the subject, just processing the info given me putting some logic to it from info given. Even with that I cannot tell where certain schools end up. It is obvious in some cases that certain schools will probably not end up in a certain conference.

 

[orientalnc]

From local sources (my UNC neighbors), UNC grads do not want to be in the SEC or B1G. What they want is more money for athletics while in the ACC. UNC has 28 varsity teams and do not want to drop any of them. It's expensive. Their desire is to bring ESPN back to the table and get a better deal that reflects today's football economics. What would force ESPN to renegotiate?

An interesting discussion from yesterday. My neighbor said he would be happy with the current ESPN contract if there were fewer ACC teams to share it. He would be happy seeing the ACC with fewer than 12 teams. Which teams? His ideal ACC => UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF, Clemson, UVA, VT, GT. He said he never liked BC, Cuse, UL, and Pitt in the conference. He liked FSU, but not Miami. What about ND? "Let em stay independent."

He also said, "Nobody is interested in my opinion or the opinion of other grads."

 

[Ramble1885]

The NFL now owns Thursday night for football. Thursday night college games were once a good draw, now not so much and that won’t change as long as the NFL is in on Thursday nights. Suck as Thursday night games were great 20+ years ago

GT used to own Thursday night. The first few years of Paul Johnson especially.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

Here are the possible scenarios, IMO.

1. Notre Dame joins the ACC full time in football and the current contract with ESPN gets renegotiated putting the ACC at or around the B1G and SEC. Highly unlikely, IMO.

2. ESPN decides to significantly increase the ACC contract to save the conference. They don't seem to have all that much money with multiple rounds of layoffs coming again but then they piss money at Pat McAfee so who knows. Do they even care about saving the ACC? Highly unlikely option, IMO.

3. The ACC adds teams from other states/time zones forcing a renegotiation of the contract and more money from ACC Network being in new markets. I don't see any realistic teams that could move that needle though so highly unlikely option, IMO.

4. The SEC, B1G, and Big 12 all have to agree to take a total of 12 ACC teams, which would force them to vote to end the GOR and/or exit fees dissolving the conference. Would the SEC take Clemson, FSU, VT, and NCSU? Would the B1G take GT, UNC, UVA, and Miami? Would the Big 12 take BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville? I don't see anyone wanting WF or Duke.

5. We all sit tight for another 6-8 years until someone leaves because it's financially better for them to break the GOR closer to the end of the agreement. The ACC teams fall further behind financially so they need to find other avenues to stay as competitive as possible and put themselves in the best position possible to get poached. At least GT has the Atlanta market and great academics to see to the B1G.

 

[orientalnc]

Here are the possible scenarios, IMO.

1. Notre Dame joins the ACC full time in football and the current contract with ESPN gets renegotiated putting the ACC at or around the B1G and SEC. Highly unlikely, IMO.

2. ESPN decides to significantly increase the ACC contract to save the conference. They don't seem to have all that much money with multiple rounds of layoffs coming again but then they piss money at Pat McAfee so who knows. Do they even care about saving the ACC? Highly unlikely option, IMO.

3. The ACC adds teams from other states/time zones forcing a renegotiation of the contract and more money from ACC Network being in new markets. I don't see any realistic teams that could move that needle though so highly unlikely option, IMO.



4. The SEC, B1G, and Big 12 all have to agree to take a total of 12 ACC teams, which would force them to vote to end the GOR and/or exit fees dissolving the conference. Would the SEC take Clemson, FSU, VT, and NCSU? Would the B1G take GT, UNC, UVA, and Miami? Would the Big 12 take BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville? I don't see anyone wanting WF or Duke.



5. We all sit tight for another 6-8 years until someone leaves because it's financially better for them to break the GOR closer to the end of the agreement. The ACC teams fall further behind financially so they need to find other avenues to stay as competitive as possible and put themselves in the best position possible to get poached. At least GT has the Atlanta market and great academics to see to the B1G.

The B1G has a policy of not accepting a new member that is not also an AAU member. Miami is NOT a member. Pitt and Duke are. As is GT, UNC and UVA.

 

[gameface]

There is another wrinkle in this equation. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal says ESPN has a plan to offer their channel(s) as a streaming service. The timing and price to be determined later. They will still offer their channels via todays usual outlets. This begs the question if this outlet is even covered in the current ACC/ESPN contract. It also raises the question if having the ACC network as part of their streaming service increases the revenue for the ACC.

 

[CEB]

Here are the possible scenarios, IMO.

1. Notre Dame joins the ACC full time in football and the current contract with ESPN gets renegotiated putting the ACC at or around the B1G and SEC. Highly unlikely, IMO.

2. ESPN decides to significantly increase the ACC contract to save the conference. They don't seem to have all that much money with multiple rounds of layoffs coming again but then they piss money at Pat McAfee so who knows. Do they even care about saving the ACC? Highly unlikely option, IMO.

3. The ACC adds teams from other states/time zones forcing a renegotiation of the contract and more money from ACC Network being in new markets. I don't see any realistic teams that could move that needle though so highly unlikely option, IMO.

4. The SEC, B1G, and Big 12 all have to agree to take a total of 12 ACC teams, which would force them to vote to end the GOR and/or exit fees dissolving the conference. Would the SEC take Clemson, FSU, VT, and NCSU? Would the B1G take GT, UNC, UVA, and Miami? Would the Big 12 take BC, Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville? I don't see anyone wanting WF or Duke.

5. We all sit tight for another 6-8 years until someone leaves because it's financially better for them to break the GOR closer to the end of the agreement. The ACC teams fall further behind financially so they need to find other avenues to stay as competitive as possible and put themselves in the best position possible to get poached. At least GT has the Atlanta market and great academics to see to the B1G.

#5. It has always been #5. Although, I think 6-8 years is a little soon.

#2 is likely in the interim depending upon your definition of “significantly” and if you strike “to save the conference.” Saving the conference is not ESPN’s motivation. Protecting their interest is. I believe the ACC will continue to see revenue bumps and ESPN and the ACC will explore any opportunity to increase revenues mutually through the term of the agreement. That will be the status quo until #5 happens.

 

[iceeater1969]

#5. It has always been #5. Although, I think 6-8 years is a little soon.

#2 is likely in the interim depending upon your definition of “significantly” and if you strike “to save the conference.” Saving the conference is not ESPN’s motivation. Protecting their interest is. I believe the ACC will continue to see revenue bumps and ESPN and the ACC will explore any opportunity to increase revenues mutually through the term of the agreement. That will be the status quo until #5 happens.

When Angel and Batt ask for money for the 5 year plan championship fund, let's hope we all dig deep enough to make the TV PEOPLE believe that GT is GOING TO BE COMPETITIVE ($$) ON LONG TERM SUSTAINABLE BASIS.
Sorry, but recently we have been a joke.

 

[Vespidae]

I read an article recently that described college sports as a modern business set in a 19th construct. What needs to happen (according to the author) is to be honest about the situation.

Some schools use sports for prestige. Others use sports as part of the school experience. The author suggested that the NCAA should simply let schools decide what sports are "prestige" (and that varies ... the South? Football. The North? Hockey? Midwest? Girls Softball) and act accordingly. Pay them, drop all the academic requirements (or offer delayed attendance options) and organize as a super conference. All others? Declare them standard sports for development and let the conferences organize to deliver that experience ... more of the traditional student-athlete. He even opined that in some cases, a school might choose to be in multiple conferences for different reasons.

I think there is a lot to critique here but ... the one thing is true. The "model" of college sports is totally inconsistent with the new "reality" of college sports. I have heard before that CFB will ultimately break away from the NCAA entirely, and the short answer is ... we have no idea how this will evolve even 2 years from now, let alone when the GOR expire.

 

[Vespidae]

When Angel and Batt ask for money for the 5 year plan championship fund, let's hope we all dig deep enough to make the TV PEOPLE believe that GT is GOING TO BE COMPETITIVE ($$) ON LONG TERM SUSTAINABLE BASIS.
Sorry, but recently we have been a joke.

There is some merit to this. I think it was Zac Miller who explained how ESPN anticipates ratings 5 years out when negotiating media deals when they have no idea how the teams will perform. He said they assume a reversion to the mean and that really crappy teams will ... over a cycle, improve enough to make it viable programming.

What Tech is probably doing, is suggesting that "Mr ESPN ... we all the moves we are making now, we deserve to be in XYZ time slots, etc." And tell the story. Tech going from pretty much worst to first (or at least, competitive) will be a feel-good story. Who knows/

 

[Techster]

REALLY good thread about the current state of the ACC, expansion, and what's at stake for the ACC. Interesting part here is ADs are expecting SAs to soon become employees...and schools outside of the Big 2 (B1G and SEC) are pretty much going to fall even further behind those two conferences. This is not looking good for schools outside of the Big 2 wanting to compete at the highest levels:

 

[CEB]

REALLY good thread about the current state of the ACC, expansion, and what's at stake for the ACC. Interesting part here is ADs are expecting SAs to soon become employees...and schools outside of the Big 2 (B1G and SEC) are pretty much going to fall even further behind those two conferences. This is not looking good for schools outside of the Big 2 wanting to compete at the highest levels:

Yup... that’s a pretty rational take. There are a lot of rational takes on this board too but this is the first Twitter take that hasn’t been chock full of sensationalized conspiracy theory.

 

[RamblinRed]

The Hale tweets are really good (Not surprising as he is one of the best writers covering the ACC).

One item he mentioned.
"Now, let's take stock of where the ACC stands. ... While financials for 2021-22 aren't available yet, expectation is a distribution of about $43M/school -- ahead by a bit of what we expect from the Big 12 and $30-40M/year behind where B1G & SEC will be w/new TV deals."

So any school moving to a conference not named the SEC or B1G is likely not happening. You effectively have a big 2 and little 3 in college football. I see nothing likely to change that. Moving from a little 3 to little 3 conference makes no sense for the program or the conference.

He also mentions the ACC has looked into expanding with other schools but the dollars don't make sense.

I think this is also an important item playing out the idea of the conference dissolving.
"The Magnificent 7 dissolves the league! Few things: 1) That name is a made-up joke from McMurphy. No AD was calling it that. 2) There have been LOTS of side convos among schools: The 7 mentioned have talked. So have smaller groups. So have schools outside the 7."

Basically, the Magnificent 7 is nothing more than a media name. There is no real group with 7 members trying to force a leave.

Another important tweet
"As noted, the B12 isn't more $ and no more than maybe 5 schools are likely to have an SEC/B1G invite (and maybe not that many). So why would they blow up the ACC now? Answer: They wouldn't. An AD from The 7 on this plan: "Completely absurd.""

Basically this is one of the so-called Magnificant 7 AD's saying this idea is absurd. Also important, the number of seats at the big boy table is very small. Just because a team wants to leave a little 3 conference does not mean there is a seat for them at the big 2 conference. I can't see either the SEC or B10 expanding beyond 20, if that. The math simply doesn't work. There are very few programs that would be additive to 16 teams already in a conference that they would be wanted.

Hale also mentions there is no easy answer and that realignment has not been a good thing for most of those programs from a competitive standpoint.

His last tweet may be one of the most important of all.
"One last thing I’ll add here for context: Coaches and ADs don’t make decisions on things like realignment. School presidents and chancellors do. And many of them are not a fraction as invested in athletics as fans on Twitter are."

My personal opinion has not changed much. At some point the big 2 are going to add a few more, but the number is likely to be small and could come from across the little 3. So it is likely that no more than 2-4 ACC teams will have an opportunity to move to the Big 2. If GT hopes to be in the Big 2 someday imo it will be the B1G. GT brings absolutely nothing to the SEC that is doesn't already have. If there is any planning going on for moving conferences, it should be solely focused on B1G. GT can at least make an argument there, though I expect GT would be one of the last taken by the B1G, not one of the first.

 

[cpf2001]

One item he mentioned.
"Now, let's take stock of where the ACC stands. ... While financials for 2021-22 aren't available yet, expectation is a distribution of about $43M/school -- ahead by a bit of what we expect from the Big 12 and $30-40M/year behind where B1G & SEC will be w/new TV deals."

So any school moving to a conference not named the SEC or B1G is likely not happening. You effectively have a big 2 and little 3 in college football. I see nothing likely to change that. Moving from a little 3 to little 3 conference makes no sense for the program or the conference.

The Big 12’s next deal is better - https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ears-six-year-228b-tv-extension-deal-espn-fox - but not a lot better, it’s not hard for me to see the ACC keeping pace.

But that Big 12 deal expires in 2031. Depending on the overall sports media market, the deal they sign then could significantly outpace the current ACC deal, if there’s another big round of media right inflation driven by changes in viewer habits and all. So that’s a potentially interesting time frame.

(Though I’m not convinced that line only ever goes up; I think there’s a more-than-outside chance that deals signed in the 2030s are worse than today, which could help the ACC if it holds together for 8 more years.)

 

[RonJohn]

My personal opinion has not changed much. At some point the big 2 are going to add a few more, but the number is likely to be small and could come from across the little 3. So it is likely that no more than 2-4 ACC teams will have an opportunity to move to the Big 2. If GT hopes to be in the Big 2 someday imo it will be the B1G. GT brings absolutely nothing to the SEC that is doesn't already have. If there is any planning going on for moving conferences, it should be solely focused on B1G. GT can at least make an argument there, though I expect GT would be one of the last taken by the B1G, not one of the first.

I think you are correct about the Big10 being the only possible spot for GT. It is possible that the Big10 and SEC would expand to 24 teams each. If they expand to 8 additional teams each, I could see the Big10 adding ND, some more Western teams, and some Southern teams to expand their footpring. I think GT would have a chance if 8 more were added.

However, I don't see any of that happening for another 8-10 years.

EDIT: One more thing I will add: I think Cabrera would be very interested in getting GT into the Big10. There are athletic, academic, and research advantages of being in that conference. I kind of got the impression that he has already thought about it during Key's announcement press conference.

 

[UgaBlows]

How are we going to stand 8-10 more years of this?

 

[gameface]

The Big 12’s next deal is better - https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ears-six-year-228b-tv-extension-deal-espn-fox - but not a lot better, it’s not hard for me to see the ACC keeping pace.

But that Big 12 deal expires in 2031. Depending on the overall sports media market, the deal they sign then could significantly outpace the current ACC deal, if there’s another big round of media right inflation driven by changes in viewer habits and all. So that’s a potentially interesting time frame.

(Though I’m not convinced that line only ever goes up; I think there’s a more-than-outside chance that deals signed in the 2030s are worse than today, which could help the ACC if it holds together for 8 more years.)

That article is from 2022; what has happened since then? And the new contract; if it is finalized, will not start till '25 which means the first payout comes in '26.

 

[cpf2001]

That article is from 2022; what has happened since then? And the new contract; if it is finalized, will not start till '25 which means the first payout comes in '26.

OU/TX were already out at the time, I’m not easily finding any later-than-2022 news suggesting that it didn’t close.

 

[Techwood Relict]

How are we going to stand 8-10 more years of this?

I can't take no dime of time. I'm getting out sooner.....

 

[cpf2001]

Meanwhile as background to all this: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/202...bers-since-1992-youtube-tv-is-the-only-riser/