A Ted Roof Conspiracy? ...

AE 87

AE 87

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Well, it's almost off-season ...

I've looked at our regular season Point Per Drive numbers for both offense and defense, and I've come to some very questionable conclusions.

1st the raw numbers for the regular season (not opponent adjusted):
Offense: 3.01 ppd, 18th (we're 23rd in raw Scoring Offense)
Defense: 1.91 ppd, 51st (we're 32nd in raw Scoring Defense--fewer drives leading to fewer points)

So, while our defense isn't top tier by these standards, it's still a step up from years past (we were between 55-65 in raw scoring D from 2009-2012 and probably in the 70's or 80's in ppd D).

However, if we go beneath the numbers a bit, it becomes interesting.
FBS wins: PPD-Off, 3.2 and PPD-Def, 1.3
FBS losses: PPD-Off, 2 and PPD-Def, 3.2

In other words, while our offense falls off in our losses (-1.2 ppd), our defense collapses (+1.9 ppd).

I think that the only unreasonable conclusion to draw from these facts is that Ted Roof is intentionally trying to sabotage CPJ. Roof wants to be the head coach so he has us lock-down opponents when the offense is going to score enough to win--building confidence in his D, but if he sees the offense start to struggle, then he loosens up the D so that we lose, lessening confidence in CPJ as head coach. Roof knows that other former players are tired of CPJ, and so he's become the insider mole taking him down from the inside. The stats don't lie.
 
Tempest_12

Tempest_12

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Where's the evidence that even if MBob got rid of CPJ that he would hire Roof??? I have no idea why people think Roof will be CPJ's successor. People keep saying this and some how it's caught with no evidence backing it up. How often does a head coach hire come from inside the program? I can't remember any but then again I haven't been looking either.

Here's what I think is going on:

The team that scores the most points wins. When we lose our defense gives up more points than our offense can score.

Also how many pick-sixes or other easy touchdowns has our offense given up in garbage time?
 

johncu

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Actually this is an interesting stat. People complain that our offense craps the bed against good teams. What this stat shows is that our defense drops off WAY more in big games than our offense does, which seems to indicate (as anyone with a brain realizes) that we struggle because our opponent is just better than us. It has nothing to do with scheme.
 
dressedcheeseside

dressedcheeseside

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johncu said:
Actually this is an interesting stat. People complain that our offense craps the bed against good teams. What this stat shows is that our defense drops off WAY more in big games than our offense does, which seems to indicate (as anyone with a brain realizes) that we struggle because our opponent is just better than us. It has nothing to do with scheme.
Click to expand...
And that our O is still ahead of our D and not the reason for our apparent demise.
 
Boomergump

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Roof ain't no double agent. I know the guy (haven't spoken since school, but that was enough). He is waaaaay to competitive for that. I don't care how much he wants to be a HC.

Beyond that, FB is a team game. I appreciate the analysis about the defense losing traction more than the offense, but the important thing to remember is that we improved SIGNIFICANTLY over recent seasons on that side of the ball. I also recall some pick sixes on offense in our losses this year. Do those go against the defense?
 
John

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Having read many of @AE 87's thoughts within the past few months... my spidey senses are tingling. :smuggrin:
 
AE 87

AE 87

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John said:
Having read many of @AE 87's thoughts within the past few months... my spidey senses are tingling. :smuggrin:
Click to expand...

Do you think I ended up trolling the wrong folk? Were my references to "questionable conclusions" and "unreasonable conclusion" to subtle?

By the way, the ppd stats and rankings are legit.
 

Eric

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AE87 said:
Do you think I ended up trolling the wrong folk? Were my references to "questionable conclusions" and "unreasonable conclusion" to subtle?

By the way, the ppd stats and rankings are legit.
Click to expand...

Unreasonable conclusion was the only way I caught it.
 
GTrob21

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sarcasm and humor are two of the hardest qualities to convey on message board forums... have said that I got a good chuckle.
 
slugboy

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Could be wrong, but against UGa and Miami, it looked like we just couldn't keep up with some of their players in pass coverage. I remember seeing a few opponents with a 2-3 yard gap on the defender running across the middle. Seemed like we were getting some pressure, but not quite making it to the QB.
 
AE 87

AE 87

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slugboy said:
Could be wrong, but against UGa and Miami, it looked like we just couldn't keep up with some of their players in pass coverage. I remember seeing a few opponents with a 2-3 yard gap on the defender running across the middle. Seemed like we were getting some pressure, but not quite making it to the QB.
Click to expand...

Yeah, we are really thin at DB this year, especially after discipline and injuries took some guys out of the mix. Then we were playing a lot of nickel, 5 db sets, in the second half and I think just wore out. I think this was our glaring weakness and the teams that could exploit it did. Our rush D is legitimately pretty good, imo. We held U[sic]Ga to 3.73 ypc, including the Gurly spurts at the end. Only Vandy was able to keep them under 4.2 ypc and that was when they didn't have girly man. We got a torched by Duke Johnson obviously, and a bit by BYU, but other than that we were pretty stout. Our passing D was pretty bad, but I expect it to improve a lot and for us not to fall off much in Rush D.
 
AE 87

AE 87

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Boomergump said:
Roof ain't no double agent. I know the guy (haven't spoken since school, but that was enough). He is waaaaay to competitive for that. I don't care how much he wants to be a HC.

Beyond that, FB is a team game. I appreciate the analysis about the defense losing traction more than the offense, but the important thing to remember is that we improved SIGNIFICANTLY over recent seasons on that side of the ball. I also recall some pick sixes on offense in our losses this year. Do those go against the defense?
Click to expand...

fwiw, the answer to your last question is, "No." I calculate PPD using only scrimmage TDs (rushing or passing) and FGs counting them as 7 and 3pts respectively regardless of what a team actually did with the extra point. Run-back TDs (defense or special teams) don't get counted in my PPD number, though they are counted in the raw Scoring O and Scoring D stats from places like cfbstats.com.
 
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