70 Years of GT Football – Odds of Getting a Better Coach Than CPJ

[GTNavyNuke]

First I brought up Power Rankings and SOS in http://gtswarm.com/community/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-strength-of-schedule.2489/ and then our coaches records for the 10 coaches over the last 70 years http://gtswarm.com/community/thread...comparing-teams-under-different-coaches.2501/ .

As I discussed, here are the coaching records of our last 10 coaches over 70 years sorted by Power Ranking.

Simply put, I think there is no better than a 20% chance we get a better coach. Only 2 of 10 coaches have been demonstrably better as far as team performance than CPJ: Dodd and O’Leary. But I think even if we got another Dodd or O’Leary, the chance is good that they would be lured away by $10Ms to go to a factory. The game of football has changed and Dodd was disheartened at the end about GT’s chances. So the upper end estimate of getting a better coach is 20%.

Then there is about a 30% chance the performance remains the same as Ross, Gailey and CPJ are all about the same. Then a 50% or more chance it gets worse. So with a 50% or more chance things get worse, there is no great reason to change coaches from a performance point of view.

I think this year and next are crucial. We could start moving up again. 2013 wasn't a disaster from the Power Ranking point of view since we were close in all our losses and took a much higher ranked UGAg to overtime. Remember that Power Ranking considers margin of victory up to a point. So for those looking for a positive, our last year as a team was an improvement over the three prior years. I think it was due to an improved defense and good ST.

So I think there is a good chance we get better from a performance point of view.

But the problem for CPJ is that football isn't all about performance. It is about entertainment and the money generated from enthusiasm for the program. CPJ has been here as long as anyone since Dodd going into 2014. So he is on a historically short leash. And he totally owns the team. After 6 years, excuses don’t work anymore. Just because your 4 star BB has never and may never play, that is the way it is in D1 football.

Gailey had good performance but people didn't like his brand of football. Unless we have the year that gets people excited, I don’t see CPJ staying after his contract in two years for much the same reason.

I started off doing this study because I wanted to figure out in my own mind how CPJ really stacked up. I like his type of football, the way he treats the players and how he represents GT from an ethics point of view. But he isn't a good PR guy, but more an engineer type (go figure). I’d like more winning but others have tried and the odds aren't good for improvement.

So I don’t think we should be changing coaches based on performance. But performance only counts if it results in enthusiasm and brings in more money.

It’s all about enthusiasm. Hopefully we get better, a lot better.

 

[awbuzz]

Well done Nuke.

None of us want mediocrity or worse. Hopefully PJ can do a little bit better with the media AND we can start winning a more, especially against UGA. Get those things to happen almost everybody will think CPJ is Dodd reincarnated.

 

[AE 87]

@GTNavyNuke
Interesting look at the coaches. If you just look at the power rating numbers, it seems that the last 3 coaches have fielded comparable teams. Differences in winning look to correlate to some extent with SOS. I think my opinion will hinge on what we do on Defense this year. If we can't break into at least the 30's and hopefully top 30 in Defensive efficiency (not total yards or total points), then I'll be concerned that there's a HC problem with the D. Of course, I'd lose my trust in Roof as a DC as well.

 

[daBuzz]

But I think even if we got another Dodd or O’Leary, the chance is good that they would be lured away by $10Ms to go to a factory. The game of football has changed and Dodd was disheartened at the end about GT’s chances. So the upper end estimate of getting a better coach is 20%.

Thanks for taking the time to do the #'s. I disagree with you on the 20% but that's irrelevant.

The point I most take issue with is the highlighted statement. So what if that happens? If a guy does well enough for you that he gets lured away by another school, that means he was doing well for you. I'd much rather have a guy who has 2 or 3 outstanding seasons and then leaves than have 4 or 5 years of consecutive .500 seasons.

 

[Sebastian GT]

Thanks for taking the time to do the #'s. I disagree with you on the 20% but that's irrelevant.

The point I most take issue with is the highlighted statement. So what if that happens? If a guy does well enough for you that he gets lured away by another school, that means he was doing well for you. I'd much rather have a guy who has 2 or 3 outstanding seasons and then leaves than have 4 or 5 years of consecutive .500 seasons.

Exactly. If he is doing well that most likely means that he has very good coordinators that would probably make good head coaches when the opportunity presents itself. Much like Ross had with O'leary and Friedgen. If the head coach leaves the replacement is already groomed for the job.

 

[GT Tennessee]

Honestly I think we will have a better year....I'd honestly be ok if we lost every game but against the bull pups. Can't stand them!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Thanks for taking the time to do the #'s. I disagree with you on the 20% but that's irrelevant.

The point I most take issue with is the highlighted statement. So what if that happens? If a guy does well enough for you that he gets lured away by another school, that means he was doing well for you. I'd much rather have a guy who has 2 or 3 outstanding seasons and then leaves than have 4 or 5 years of consecutive .500 seasons.

I agree that the best we can expect if we replace CPJ is get someone like another Ross or O'Leary and have a few really good (top 20 seasons). Ross and O'Leary are the model for developing a successful program and then moving on. But when Ross left we had a big drop off with Lewis. Then when O'Leary left, we got Gailey who was almost as good.

The third case was Dodd, who left the program to Carson which was a significant decline. So in two of the three recent cases (excludes Heisman and Alexander), the program has deteriorated significantly when the good coach leaves.

Dodd almost left GT to go to Texas. In 1956, Texas was after him big time and he almost took the job and then regretted not taking the job. On page 197 of the book "Dodd's Luck", "Bobby Dodd, meanwhile, remained at Georgia Tech. Almost immediately, Dodd regretted the decision. "If Texas", he said, " had offered me that job about a year or two later - which they probably wouldn't have because of my record - I'd a probably gone to Texas or any other real well-known football school.""

For all coaches except possibly one like CPJ, we are an intermediate destination to the pinnacle of coaching. I think that the recruiting challenges at GT make this nothing more than a stepping stone for anyone other than a CPJ type who isn't the smooth PR type but more a purely functional type of coach. (At some point, I'll post more about recruiting challenges all the way back to Dodd, but I don't want to thread jack my own discussion.)

After thinking about this for the past few months, I like our chances with CPJ best. It's not where I started out, but where I have ended up after looking at the records over time. But CPJ only has a year or two to produce otherwise the lack of enthusiasm will drive him out. We all hope he succeeds.

 

[jwsavhGT]

Thanks for the post. I don't know if it will help to calm the anti-CPJ crowd, especially with events of the last couple of weeks, but it does reconfirm my belief in CPJ & his place at GT. I do recognize that we have to have a more positive season and the ultimate responsibility lands on CPJ's desk. As always, Go Jackets!

 

[foggy]

Contrary to what people think I want pj to be successful, if he's successful then Tech and the SA's are successful. However I do not for one moment with out changes to the O (ie run a different O) and changes to his assistants think pj will be successful. Do I believe he will have a good team every now and then yes, but consistently not at all. He will be a 7-5 type record with a no name bowl.

 

[AE 87]

Contrary to what people think I want pj to be successful, if he's successful then Tech and the SA's are successful. However I do not for one moment with out changes to the O (ie run a different O) and changes to his assistants think pj will be successful. Do I believe he will have a good team every now and then yes, but consistently not at all. He will be a 7-5 type record with a no name bowl.

Why do you hold this opinion about his O? Everything I've seen suggests that with only an average ACC D we would've won at least 9 or ten games for the last few years.

 

[iceeater1969]

Your analysis ( even though the recent cup cakes added to schedule could skew it slightly ) has had an impact on my thinking.

I started out totally loving cpj ( i thought the TO with aggressive defense to either get other team stopped or get ball but get offense back on field so their defense is worn out in second half) . I felt that he could make us a top 10-20 team on regular basis. I wanted and still want a coach that will coach not just barely get us by - maintain the level of the last 20 or so years. I could list some disappointments but I still like the TO and hope we can have a good year this year and next..

I was thinking if he has a mediocre 2014 we should end it this year.
Your analysis shows if poor we should wait till 2015 ( add fsu, ND away, lots of big 4 away and w seasoned qbs) which should be a real test. If we limp out of 14 and have a bad 15 your analysis will look a lot different.
We could ALL be embarrassed ready for a change to something new.
Only then will there be a united effort to do something BIG ( like Baylor ) to stop the decent into the mire mediocrity from which return to average is highly unlikely.

I think coach can still pull this off. He is a fighter and this team could make us very proud in 14 &15.
Let's give him his full contract and then let's unite again to get back to the tech of old. Let's stop " the new normal"
THWG.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Ice Eater - making people think was one of the purposes. I have thought about a lot about what we should do in the last few months.

I want for our football team to win like no one else. But people in Hell want ice water. So we have to face the facts which I tried to present. You've seen what I think which parallels what you said. I started off thinking CPJ should go now. But after 15 makes a lot more sense, IF he hasn't been able to turn it around.

If CPJ leaves, I’ve already said I like Roof, but our history with past GT players as HCs isn’t good (Fulcher, Rodgers, Curry). So what to do?

 

[croberts]

I agree with eve

I agree that the best we can expect if we replace CPJ is get someone like another Ross or O'Leary and have a few really good (top 20 seasons). Ross and O'Leary are the model for developing a successful program and then moving on. But when Ross left we had a big drop off with Lewis. Then when O'Leary left, we got Gailey who was almost as good.

The third case was Dodd, who left the program to Carson which was a significant decline. So in two of the three recent cases (excludes Heisman and Alexander), the program has deteriorated significantly when the good coach leaves.

Dodd almost left GT to go to Texas. In 1956, Texas was after him big time and he almost took the job and then regretted not taking the job. On page 197 of the book "Dodd's Luck", "Bobby Dodd, meanwhile, remained at Georgia Tech. Almost immediately, Dodd regretted the decision. "If Texas", he said, " had offered me that job about a year or two later - which they probably wouldn't have because of my record - I'd a probably gone to Texas or any other real well-known football school.""

For all coaches except possibly one like CPJ, we are an intermediate destination to the pinnacle of coaching. I think that the recruiting challenges at GT make this nothing more than a stepping stone for anyone other than a CPJ type who isn't the smooth PR type but more a purely functional type of coach. (At some point, I'll post more about recruiting challenges all the way back to Dodd, but I don't want to thread jack my own discussion.)

After thinking about this for the past few months, I like our chances with CPJ best. It's not where I started out, but where I have ended up after looking at the records over time. But CPJ only has a year or two to produce otherwise the lack of enthusiasm will drive him out. We all hope he succeeds.

i agree with everything you are saying. I was sick last year when the ga game ended more from lost opportunity for pj than dealing with the mutts. It would have lengthened the the life line for a coach that I feel is the perfect solution for gt and changed landscape of college football. Bobby Dodd recruited from boys high and Marist , not from section 8 housing in Columbus , Albany and Atlanta, where the kids show up at school and have never seen a pencil or book . They are in school at the factories 12 years later with very little desire of being in a calculus class chasing a dream of working for IBM.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I wanted and still want a coach that will coach not just barely get us by - maintain the level of the last 20 or so years.

In the 20 years preceding CPJ, GT's record in football was 137-101-1. (.573) GT averaged 6.9 wins and 5.1 losses per year. In CPJ's 6 years he has averaged 8 wins and 5.3 losses per year with a record of 48-32. (.600) That's better than simply "maintaining the level" of the last 20 years.

While CPJ definitely needs to turn things around, we can't simply ignore the fact that he has been significantly better than all but two GT coaches.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Honestly I think we will have a better year....I'd honestly be ok if we lost every game but against the bull pups. Can't stand them!

Think what 1-12 would do to recruiting.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

Your analysis ( even though the recent cup cakes added to schedule could skew it slightly ) has had an impact on my thinking.

I started out totally loving cpj ( i thought the TO with aggressive defense to either get other team stopped or get ball but get offense back on field so their defense is worn out in second half) . I felt that he could make us a top 10-20 team on regular basis. I wanted and still want a coach that will coach not just barely get us by - maintain the level of the last 20 or so years. I could list some disappointments but I still like the TO and hope we can have a good year this year and next..

I was thinking if he has a mediocre 2014 we should end it this year.
Your analysis shows if poor we should wait till 2015 ( add fsu, ND away, lots of big 4 away and w seasoned qbs) which should be a real test. If we limp out of 14 and have a bad 15 your analysis will look a lot different.
We could ALL be embarrassed ready for a change to something new.
Only then will there be a united effort to do something BIG ( like Baylor ) to stop the decent into the mire mediocrity from which return to average is highly unlikely.

I think coach can still pull this off. He is a fighter and this team could make us very proud in 14 &15.
Let's give him his full contract and then let's unite again to get back to the tech of old. Let's stop " the new normal"
THWG.

The analysis presented is relying on a comparison being made that cannot and should not be made. You cannot compare CPJ's performance in 2010 thru 2013 with Dodd's of the late forties or Curry's of the early 1980's. There is no comparison. The stars, the All-Americans, of Dodd's era could not make this year's team. Some of Dodd's teams were in the age of players playing both ways. You'll never convince me that Bud Carson couldn't coach, but he followed Dodd and could not replicate Dodd's signature performance, i.e. 7-3. I read recently something that came as news to me. Pepper's DC., alum Franklin Brooks, would have taken over when Rodgers was canned instead of Bill Curry had he not gotten cancer. Wonder how that would have changed things? Comparison of sports across the eras is an a musing pastime, but it should never be used to make conclusions on the relative merits of the different times.

 

[Jean-Baptiste Rochambeau]

In the 20 years preceding CPJ, GT's record in football was 137-101-1. (.573) GT averaged 6.9 wins and 5.1 losses per year. In CPJ's 6 years he has averaged 8 wins and 5.3 losses per year with a record of 48-32. (.600) That's better than simply "maintaining the level" of the last 20 years.

While CPJ definitely needs to turn things around, we can't simply ignore the fact that he has been significantly better than all but two GT coaches.

He hasn't been significantly better. He is not more than microscopically better than Chan Gailey, and Johnson is trending, and has been trending down for four years.

Ice Eater - making people think was one of the purposes. I have thought about a lot about what we should do in the last few months.

I want for our football team to win like no one else. But people in Hell want ice water. So we have to face the facts which I tried to present. You've seen what I think which parallels what you said. I started off thinking CPJ should go now. But after 15 makes a lot more sense, IF he hasn't been able to turn it around.

If CPJ leaves, I’ve already said I like Roof, but our history with past GT players as HCs isn’t good (Fulcher, Rodgers, Curry). So what to do?

A Tech education doesn't do much to prepare you for coaching football.

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

It is hard to compare across eras and and attempt to demonstrate certain parallels. Single platoon football vs two platoon is a great point. Dodd was able to compete at a very high level with single platoons. He was not as able to do so in the two platoon system.

It's just much harder for us to get the large number of quality players to compete against the factories. Single platoon ball was more similar to basketball in that regard. I'm not saying Dodd didn't have inherent recruiting disadvantages even in single platoon. I believe even then he competed with a talent gap many years. This just became exasperated when team sizes doubled with two platoon football.

The comparisons are still insightful however. We just have to realize that certain parallels can't be made.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

He hasn't been significantly better. He is not more than microscopically better than Chan Gailey, and Johnson is trending, and has been trending down for four years.

He recruits better on average, wins more games and graduates more players than Gailey ever did. As for trending down, that's because you are looking at the bottom line without looking into the P&L, so to speak. If you look at his win totals, 9-11-6-8-7-7, you would see that he has been fairly consistent. If you aren't satisfied with the results, that's a different argument. I think we can all agree that no one is happy with 7 wins a season. The question then becomes, why are we winning 7 games a season. Prior to last year, the reason was the defense. Six CAG recruits just made it to the NFL, three via the draft, from a defense that couldn't stop Middle Tennessee State. Piss poor coaching and defensive scheme, IMO, were responsible for at least 1-2 losses per year. For instance, in 2012, GT goes up 17-14 on VT with 0:44 left on the clock. With 4th and 4 at midfield and 0:13 left on the clock, we couldn't make a defensive stop. Our defense cost us a loss in the Miami and Middle Tennessee games as well. Take two of those three and 2012's 7-7 campaign is suddenly 9-5 (10-4 if we pulled all three out). In 2011, we won 8 games but our Defense cost us during the UVA game and in the bowl game vs. Utah. Win those two close games where the offense wasn't the problem and GT is 10-3 vs. 8-5. 2010 was a disaster, but more so due to Nesbitt getting hurt mid-season. Even so, there were a couple of winnable games that could have improved GT to 7-8 wins.

Last year was a different story. The defense did its part, and for the first time, CPJ was mostly to blame for our issues. Vad proved unable to live up to the hype. (A lot of that is OUR fault, not Vad's) As a first year starter, he was't truly comfortable in the offense. Some of that is understandable. My expectations from the beginning of the season were for 8-4 and hopefully win the bowl game. The ONLY game we lost that I did't really expect was the VT game. I truly thought we would win that one this year. With Vad transferred, and Thomas/Byerly running the option, I think we see results more in line with what Tevin Washington provided. Solid performance with an occasional big run. If our defense can continue to stop the run and make strides in stopping the pass, then GT should win 8-9 games this year easily.

Here is where the rubber meets the road. Had the D pulled it's weight in the previous years, CPJ's win totals would be 9-11-7-10-10-7. I think we would all be happy if those were the results. We are due to win some of these close games, and I think we will with CTR coaching the D and returning to CPJ's base offense.

I support CPJ currently, and feel that he can be a great long term coach for us. He NEEDS to win 8-9 games this year and 7-8 games in 2015 to keep coaching though. I don't think 7 wins in 2014 will keep him at GT. 2015, with it's much tougher schedule, he could maybe survive with 7. As it stands, I am rooting for a strong 2014 with a chance to continue building into 2015 and beyond.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The analysis presented is relying on a comparison being made that cannot and should not be made. You cannot compare CPJ's performance in 2010 thru 2013 with Dodd's of the late forties or Curry's of the early 1980's. There is no comparison. The stars, the All-Americans, of Dodd's era could not make this year's team. Some of Dodd's teams were in the age of players playing both ways. You'll never convince me that Bud Carson couldn't coach, but he followed Dodd and could not replicate Dodd's signature performance, i.e. 7-3. I read recently something that came as news to me. Pepper's DC., alum Franklin Brooks, would have taken over when Rodgers was canned instead of Bill Curry had he not gotten cancer. Wonder how that would have changed things? Comparison of sports across the eras is an a musing pastime, but it should never be used to make conclusions on the relative merits of the different times.

The comparison is the probability of a given team beating the average team on a neutral field. It compares how teams stacked up against others in their day.

The assumption going across the decades is that a coach in one time period would be able to take the athletes, institutional advantages / disadvantages and rules of another time and adapt to have the same relative performance. I'm not comparing the relative merits of different times but the relative performance of programs against their peers.

Bud Carson may have been a good coach, but on average his teams finished 48th. So on average there were 47 coaches / programs better than him in his day. So I'd rather have CPJ who has finished 43rd so far. (I hope we do a lot better and CPJ's average performance goes up.)

I agree that players in the 50's were much smaller, slower and weaker than players today. An average team today would have little difficulty easily defeating a 50's championship team. Just like an average Formula 1 race car today would have no problem beating a 50's Formula 1 race car. So you can't compare this year's team on an absolute basis to the 50's team. But you can compare how they stacked up against their competition under similar conditions.