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First I brought up Power Rankings and SOS in http://gtswarm.com/community/threads/70-years-of-gt-football-–-strength-of-schedule.2489/ and then our coaches records for the 10 coaches over the last 70 years http://gtswarm.com/community/thread...comparing-teams-under-different-coaches.2501/ .
As I discussed, here are the coaching records of our last 10 coaches over 70 years sorted by Power Ranking.
Simply put, I think there is no better than a 20% chance we get a better coach. Only 2 of 10 coaches have been demonstrably better as far as team performance than CPJ: Dodd and O’Leary. But I think even if we got another Dodd or O’Leary, the chance is good that they would be lured away by $10Ms to go to a factory. The game of football has changed and Dodd was disheartened at the end about GT’s chances. So the upper end estimate of getting a better coach is 20%.
Then there is about a 30% chance the performance remains the same as Ross, Gailey and CPJ are all about the same. Then a 50% or more chance it gets worse. So with a 50% or more chance things get worse, there is no great reason to change coaches from a performance point of view.
I think this year and next are crucial. We could start moving up again. 2013 wasn't a disaster from the Power Ranking point of view since we were close in all our losses and took a much higher ranked UGAg to overtime. Remember that Power Ranking considers margin of victory up to a point. So for those looking for a positive, our last year as a team was an improvement over the three prior years. I think it was due to an improved defense and good ST.
So I think there is a good chance we get better from a performance point of view.
But the problem for CPJ is that football isn't all about performance. It is about entertainment and the money generated from enthusiasm for the program. CPJ has been here as long as anyone since Dodd going into 2014. So he is on a historically short leash. And he totally owns the team. After 6 years, excuses don’t work anymore. Just because your 4 star BB has never and may never play, that is the way it is in D1 football.
Gailey had good performance but people didn't like his brand of football. Unless we have the year that gets people excited, I don’t see CPJ staying after his contract in two years for much the same reason.
I started off doing this study because I wanted to figure out in my own mind how CPJ really stacked up. I like his type of football, the way he treats the players and how he represents GT from an ethics point of view. But he isn't a good PR guy, but more an engineer type (go figure). I’d like more winning but others have tried and the odds aren't good for improvement.
So I don’t think we should be changing coaches based on performance. But performance only counts if it results in enthusiasm and brings in more money.
It’s all about enthusiasm. Hopefully we get better, a lot better.
As I discussed, here are the coaching records of our last 10 coaches over 70 years sorted by Power Ranking.
Simply put, I think there is no better than a 20% chance we get a better coach. Only 2 of 10 coaches have been demonstrably better as far as team performance than CPJ: Dodd and O’Leary. But I think even if we got another Dodd or O’Leary, the chance is good that they would be lured away by $10Ms to go to a factory. The game of football has changed and Dodd was disheartened at the end about GT’s chances. So the upper end estimate of getting a better coach is 20%.
Then there is about a 30% chance the performance remains the same as Ross, Gailey and CPJ are all about the same. Then a 50% or more chance it gets worse. So with a 50% or more chance things get worse, there is no great reason to change coaches from a performance point of view.
I think this year and next are crucial. We could start moving up again. 2013 wasn't a disaster from the Power Ranking point of view since we were close in all our losses and took a much higher ranked UGAg to overtime. Remember that Power Ranking considers margin of victory up to a point. So for those looking for a positive, our last year as a team was an improvement over the three prior years. I think it was due to an improved defense and good ST.
So I think there is a good chance we get better from a performance point of view.
But the problem for CPJ is that football isn't all about performance. It is about entertainment and the money generated from enthusiasm for the program. CPJ has been here as long as anyone since Dodd going into 2014. So he is on a historically short leash. And he totally owns the team. After 6 years, excuses don’t work anymore. Just because your 4 star BB has never and may never play, that is the way it is in D1 football.
Gailey had good performance but people didn't like his brand of football. Unless we have the year that gets people excited, I don’t see CPJ staying after his contract in two years for much the same reason.
I started off doing this study because I wanted to figure out in my own mind how CPJ really stacked up. I like his type of football, the way he treats the players and how he represents GT from an ethics point of view. But he isn't a good PR guy, but more an engineer type (go figure). I’d like more winning but others have tried and the odds aren't good for improvement.
So I don’t think we should be changing coaches based on performance. But performance only counts if it results in enthusiasm and brings in more money.
It’s all about enthusiasm. Hopefully we get better, a lot better.