Vespidie
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2026 ACC Baseball
- Thread starter FredJacket
- Start date
Oldgoldandwhite
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Given large number of ties, results have changed a bit from last week but will change a lot when the last series are played and all the tiebreakers are applied:
FredJacket
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After 72 (of 80) conference series complete, here are the numbers:
Home series WINS: 46 (.639)
Road series WINS: 26 (.361)
Sweeps: 22 (.306)
Home series Sweep: 17
WF over STAN/LOU
BC over CAL/DUKE
ND over CLEM/STAN
GT over NCST/FSU/WF/DUKE
UNC over PITT
LOU over CLEM
PITT over UVA
STAN over FSU
FSU over ND/PITT
NCST over ND
Road series Sweep: 5
FSU over WF
UNC over CAL/ND
GT over CAL
CAL over PITT
Trends... late this season, the home series wins have picked up.... as have series sweeps. There have been no road sweeps since mid-April.
Based on my memory (which is suspect), this season has produced a markedly higher 'sweep-rate' than prior seasons. Likewise, I believe a higher than .600 home series winning percentage is a tick above average too. Probably makes sense with 2 teams (Tech and UNC) separating themselves by BOTH winning 20+ games in conference play... with 3 games left.
Home series WINS: 46 (.639)
Road series WINS: 26 (.361)
Sweeps: 22 (.306)
Home series Sweep: 17
WF over STAN/LOU
BC over CAL/DUKE
ND over CLEM/STAN
GT over NCST/FSU/WF/DUKE
UNC over PITT
LOU over CLEM
PITT over UVA
STAN over FSU
FSU over ND/PITT
NCST over ND
Road series Sweep: 5
FSU over WF
UNC over CAL/ND
GT over CAL
CAL over PITT
Trends... late this season, the home series wins have picked up.... as have series sweeps. There have been no road sweeps since mid-April.
Based on my memory (which is suspect), this season has produced a markedly higher 'sweep-rate' than prior seasons. Likewise, I believe a higher than .600 home series winning percentage is a tick above average too. Probably makes sense with 2 teams (Tech and UNC) separating themselves by BOTH winning 20+ games in conference play... with 3 games left.
bensaysitathome
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I really appreciate the effort to keep this kind of data. I feel like everyone has a perception of how often sweeps vs road wins vs whatever occurs, and it's nice to see it quantified. Thanks for doing the hard work!
TechPhi97
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Fred, do you think the introduction of teams from the West Coast has influenced the home winning % any? Seems like this would make travel much more difficult for teams traveling cross country (in either direction) to play.
gtbeak
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One would think, but surprisingly the two ACC west coast schools haven't really seen a big difference. And I think this was true last year as well.
California went 7-8 on the road and is right now 3-9 at home with Stanford visiting this weekend, so no cross-country travel involved.
Stanford went 4-8 on the road (cross country) and 8-7 at home, so they have a fairly normal home/road split of 16-11 (.593) for the home team.
FredJacket
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You could be on to something. But the more glaring trend I noticed this season is how much home series wins ramped up in the last half of the season.
Through first 44 series: Home winning % was .545 (24-20)
Series 45-72: Home winning % was .786 (22-6)
senoiajacket
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Scheduling anomaly?
Home Park Jacket
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Very well could be. For example, our BC series is the first top 25 matchup in the ACC since our NC series. Of course, you have to have top 25 teams to have top 25 matchups. Could be just GT, NC, and F$u just separating themselves. Could be just baseball.
gtrower
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I think it’s more the bottom of the ACC being pretty good. Stanford took series from VT and NC State. Duke took a series from Miami. Cal swept Pitt. Believe all of those teams were ranked at some point this season.
Also WF not being ranked is just plain bizarre. They’re a regional host team off of just about any metric you want to use yet no poll even has them ranked.
36-17 (14-13) (w/ #8 overall SOS)
#16 RPI
#9 ELO
#12 DSR
#16 KPI
Coaches Poll: #28
D1B: UR
BA: UR
GT33
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Jim Phillips is probably all over it. He's likely lobbying for Vandy to replace Wake.
78pike
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Jim Phillips doesn't even know there is a baseball season. He's already working on football.
bensaysitathome
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I attribute it to a lack of real marquee wins. Wake is 7-14 in Q1 wins, including getting swept by GT and FSU, and losing series against Miami, UVA, and Coastal.
They're a talented team, but they've generally failed to deliver in their biggest opportunities.
BonafideJacket
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I tend to agree with you. Wake has had opportunities and fallen short. And yet USC is 0-8 in Q1, Oregon State is 3-4, Ole Miss is 10-15. All are routinely mentioned as potential hosts over Wake Forest.
ETA: Unrelated but I'm not sure I've ever seen such a clear cut difference between humans and computers as GT vs UNC for 2/3. Every single computer rating (RPI, PEAR, DSR, ISR, etc) I've seen has us at 1 or 2. None drop us below 2. Yet all the major human polls (D1B, USA Today, BA, NCBWA) have us at 3 behind UNC. That run rule on Saturday at UNC is living rent-free in all their heads I guess.
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beeteam
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I really wish he wouldn't based on past record.
gtbeak
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USC is going to be interesting. They have that top 8 RPI helping them, which says they should easily host, but the other two rating systems are not nearly as bullish on them (22 KPI, 21 DSR). They are likely going to be a test case for what the committee really values. They do have the fact that they aren't in the southeast US working in their favor for hosting.
As for the other 3 schools (Ole Miss, Oregon St., Wake Forest), here are the comparisons of their resumes:
Wake Forest: 16/16/12 (16 RPI, 16 KPI, 12 DSR), 11-12 away from home, 7-14 Q1, 12-15 Q1/Q2, best series wins are @ Pitt (46/55/50), home v NC State (41/40/34)
Ole Miss: 13/13/16, 8-11 away from home, 10-15 Q1, 15-18 Q1/Q2, best series wins are home V Texas A&M (10/9/7), @ Florida (12/6/15)
Oregon St: 17/18/11, 22-6 away from home, 3-4 Q1, 12-7 Q1/Q2, best series wins are home sweep over Mercer (34/52/47), home sweep over Xavier (64/98/89), sweep @ Lamar (108/104/69)
USC: 8/22/21, 9-11 away from home, 0-8 Q1, 11-9 Q1/Q2, best series wins home sweep over Purdue (47/62/42), @ Maryland (77/91/98)
My thoughts:
Oregon St will lean heavily on their record away from home, their historical name value, and the fact they are on the west coast.
Ole Miss will lean heavily on their high quality series wins over A&M + Florida, along with Tennessee, Missouri St and Kentucky.
Wake should definitely be in the hosting conversation, especially if the finish strong.
USC is a litmus test for what the committee values. RPI says they clearly host, but all other data points are kinda meh.
BonafideJacket
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Good stuff, Beak. Wake definitely deserves to be in the conversation with those other schools. At least more than I've seen them mentioned.
gtbeak
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Had they held on to win that game they had the 10-0 lead over us, then I think they would be nearly a lock to host.
