2024 Season

Killerbees

Killerbees

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
154
stinger78 said:
Somehow I just can’t get excited of we do get in. It just solidifies CFDH’s reason not to retire, and we will most likely go nowhere.

Is Leo Mazzone still around? He might work for free. Ha!
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CDH is willing to let go of any player or staff member to get his final years in. Everyone is just a pawn in his world. And assuming DB stays then he is definitely not leaving on his own will.
 
gtbeak

gtbeak

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
460
Killerbees said:
PAC12 might steal a spot. I feel odds are getting worse vs better
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Conferences that are looking like stolen bids right now include:

AAC - East Carolina playing in an elimination game @ 1 PM. Tulane and Wichita St are in the winner's bracket
Big East - UConn *** has been eliminated (lost 2 extra inning games in one day!) and St. John's will have to be beaten twice.
Missouri Valley - Indiana St is trying to come through the loser's bracket, Evansville is in the winner's bracket
PAC-12 - Could be, but Arizona is still the front-runner at this moment. Down to four schools in a single-elimination style.

*** UConn's 0-2 week has moved them onto the bubble. I'll add them to the list, noting this makes 11 bubble teams that will get in.

Note that Georgia Southern is 2-0 in their tourney and is close to playing their way onto the bubble.
 
gtbeak

gtbeak

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
460
My updated bubble list. Note that added UConn, making the cutoff point become the 11 spot:

1) Charleston <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
2) Indiana <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
3) St. John's <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
4) Tulane <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
5) Evansville <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
6) Central Florida <-- 2-0 in Big 12, play tonight for spot in championship game
7) TCU <-- 2-1 in Big 12, playing Kansas this AM in elimination game
8) Coastal Carolina <-- Eliminated, but #36 RPI, I think they're in
9) UNC-Wilmington <-- 1-0 this week, play Charleston(#1 above) tonight in winner's bracket game
10) UConn <-- 0-2 this week, RPI = 41, 17-4 Big East regular season champ, only 2 Q1 wins
11) Xavier <-- 1-1 this week, play Georgetown this afternoon. #38 RPI, built on a lot of road games
--------------- CUTOFF LINE -----------------
12) Troy <-- 1-1 this week, play App St this afternoon, #54 RPI, but a good resume otherwise
13) California <-- 2-0 in pool play, play USC this afternoon for spot in PAC-12 championship
14) James Madison <-- 1-1 this week, play Old Dominion tonight in elimination game
15) Georgia Tech <-- 0-2 this week, RPI = 48, 10-14 in Q1 games
16) Kansas St <-- Went 1-2 this week, RPI = 47, 7-15 record in Q1 games
17) Florida <-- Lost play-in game, RPI = 29, only 28 wins overall. How much does RPI help?
18) Wofford <-- 2-0 this week, leading UNC-Greensboro 2-0 in 3rd inning right now. Win moves them up
19) Portland <-- 1-0 so far, play San Diego tonight in winner's bracket game
20) East Tennessee St <-- 0-1 so far, play elimination game this afternoon
21) Ohio St <-- 1-1 so far, play Nebraska this afternoon in elimination game
22) Louisville <-- 0-1 so far, play Clemson this afternoon in pool play
23) Cincinnati <-- Went 1-2 this week, 63 RPI, I could probably remove them.
24) Lamar <-- 1-1 so far, play Incarnate Word this AM, can probably remove them from at-large consideration
 
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bensaysitathome

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
644
gtbeak said:
My updated bubble list. Note that added UConn, making the cutoff point become the 11 spot:

1) Charleston <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
2) Indiana <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
3) St. John's <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
4) Tulane <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
5) Evansville <-- Conference tourney driver’s seat
6) Central Florida <-- 2-0 in Big 12, play tonight for spot in championship game
7) TCU <-- 2-1 in Big 12, playing Kansas this AM in elimination game
8) Coastal Carolina <-- Eliminated, but #36 RPI, I think they're in
9) UNC-Wilmington <-- 1-0 this week, play Charleston(#1 above) tonight in winner's bracket game
10) UConn <-- 0-2 this week, RPI = 41, 17-4 Big East regular season champ, only 2 Q1 wins
11) Xavier <-- 1-1 this week, play Georgetown this afternoon. #38 RPI, built on a lot of road games
---------------CUTOFF LINE -----------------
12) Troy <-- 1-1 this week, play App St this afternoon, #54 RPI, but a good resume otherwise
13) California <-- 2-0 in pool play, play USC this afternoon for spot in PAC-12 championship
14) James Madison <-- 1-1 this week, play Old Dominion tonight in elimination game
15) Georgia Tech <-- 0-2 this week, RPI = 48, 10-14 in Q1 games
16) Kansas St <-- Went 1-2 this week, RPI = 47, 7-15 record in Q1 games
17) Florida <-- Lost play-in game, RPI = 29, only 28 wins overall. How much does RPI help?
18) Wofford <-- 2-0 this week, leading UNC-Greensboro 2-0 in 3rd inning right now. Win moves them up
19) Portland <-- 1-0 so far, play San Diego tonight in winner's bracket game
20) East Tennessee St <-- 0-1 so far, play elimination game this afternoon
21) Ohio St <-- 1-1 so far, play Nebraska this afternoon in elimination game
22) Louisville <-- 0-1 so far, play Clemson this afternoon in pool play
23) Cincinnati <-- Went 1-2 this week, 63 RPI, I could probably remove them.
24) Lamar <-- 1-1 so far, play Incarnate Word this AM, can probably remove them from at-large consideration
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For what it's worth, D1 baseball has us in this morning, but barely. How they see it:

Kansas St
James Madison
Georgia Tech
California
------the line------
Troy
Northeastern
Coastal Carolina
Xavier
 
gtbeak

gtbeak

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
460
I see D1 Baseball updated their projections. d1baseball.com/stories/2024-d1baseball-field-of-64-projections-may-24/

They have us as a "last four in". Their "Last Four In" almost perfectly mirrors my first four out, except they agree Troy is the 1st team out. They actually have Northeastern OUT, I don't even have them on my bubble watch because of their #33 RPI, good road record, and respectable 4-4 in Q1 games and 12-9 in Q1/Q2 games. They also have Coastal Carolina out, but as I wrote in my bubble watch post, I think their #36 RPI gets them in. They have East Carolina coming through the loser's bracket in the AAC tourney, so they don't include that league as a stolen bid whereas I do. similarly for Indiana St/Evansville in the MVC tourney. So D1 Baseball only has 1 stolen bid total, St. John's in the Big East. They also have Xavier out, which is quite possible if they lose to Georgetown today. They have Florida in, which is certainly possible with their RPI. They don't deserve a bid otherwise, but that RPI is strong. But I don't see anyway possible to put them in ahead of Northeastern, that's just crazy talk there.

ETA: I looked more, how can anyone with half a brain put Florida ahead of Northeastern????

RPI: Florida = 29, Northeastern = 33
Overall Record: Florida = 28-27, Northeastern = 38-19
SoS: Florida = 1, Northeastern = 105
Road/Neutral Record: Florida = 9-14, Northeastern = 21-14
Q1 Record: Florida = 13-18, Northeastern = 4-4
Q1/Q2 Record: Florida = 15-24, Northeastern = 12-9

The only thing Florida has over Northeastern is SoS, but when you lose over 60% of those top games, YOU DON"T BELONG IN A CHAMPIONSHIP TOURNAMENT!!!
 
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AUFC

AUFC

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,354
Location
Atlanta
LargeFO said:
I kinda hope we don't get in and I hate feeling that way.
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I hope to have that feeling in basketball some day 😅 I'm so tortured that I can't imagine a world where making the final 64 (68) isn't an accomplishment. Plus an additional 2+ hours of GTBB to watch, always down for that.
 

g0lftime

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,516
AUFC said:
I hope to have that feeling in basketball some day 😅 I'm so tortured that I can't imagine a world where making the final 64 (68) isn't an accomplishment. Plus an additional 2+ hours of GTBB to watch, always down for that.
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It has become a metric for coaching success even if no chance of actually winning the tournament. It pads the accomplishments of the coach just like W-L record which includes gimme wins.
 

FittedJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
501
gtbeak said:
Conferences that are looking like stolen bids right now include:

AAC - East Carolina playing in an elimination game @ 1 PM. Tulane and Wichita St are in the winner's bracket
Big East - UConn *** has been eliminated (lost 2 extra inning games in one day!) and St. John's will have to be beaten twice.
Missouri Valley - Indiana St is trying to come through the loser's bracket, Evansville is in the winner's bracket
PAC-12 - Could be, but Arizona is still the front-runner at this moment. Down to four schools in a single-elimination style.

*** UConn's 0-2 week has moved them onto the bubble. I'll add them to the list, noting this makes 11 bubble teams that will get in.

Note that Georgia Southern is 2-0 in their tourney and is close to playing their way onto the bubble.
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Uconn‘s resume stinks…their conference stinks…most of the season they had a losing record until the played the rest of the Big Least…what are their big series wins? That conference should have one bid!
 
gtbeak

gtbeak

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
460
FittedJacket said:
Uconn‘s resume stinks…their conference stinks…most of the season they had a losing record until the played the rest of the Big Least…what are their big series wins? That conference should have one bid!
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Yep Fitted, I agree that UConn's resume isn't great. I'm suspecting that the Big East will get two, it's just a matter of which two. If Xavier beats Georgetown today they will be one if the two, with St. John'slikely the other. If Georgetown wins I suspect UConn sneaks in. But they will definitely be sweating it.

ETA: Not that my rankings matter at all, but I may them below the line. You have convinced me!!!
 

FittedJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
501
gtbeak said:
Yep Fitted, I agree that UConn's resume isn't great. I'm suspecting that the Big East will get two, it's just a matter of which two. If Xavier beats Georgetown today they will be one if the two, with St. John'slikely the other. If Georgetown wins I suspect UConn sneaks in. But they will definitely be sweating it.

ETA: Not that my rankings matter at all, but I may them below the line. You have convinced me!!!
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I’ll take it! Lol
 
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