2024 Season

MWBATL

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Trivial early season trivia... the 3 conference teams Ga Tech "avoids" this regular season are a combined 3-12 right now in ACC play. Schedulers screwed us again. Did I do that right?

WF 2-4
LOU 1-2
ND 0-6
Well, maybe it'll help our RPI (or whatever).

Look on the Bright Side of Life.....
 

FredJacket

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Massey does his own ratings and compiles "composite" information using others out there. It looks like he does weekly updates. He'll add to the composite list as those come out over a week.

Full Composite list

Ga Tech's trend...
 

FredJacket

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Doesn't cost a lot to be optimistic. I'll 'try' :)

The Jackets have improved in pitching and defense. Is it enough to matter... maybe. We'll see. Offense is still very good... although, I'd argue not as consistent or as potent as in recent years. NET ... I think the team shows signs they can get to the post-season. Need to keep grinding, keep executing, avoid any significant injuries, and figure out the things that have been problems... namely timely/situational hitting at key times in games.

At 16-7, worth noting that 5 of the 7 loses have been against UNC and UGA (all 5 of these losses are away from home). RPI is improving... up 20 spots to mid-50s after losing 2.1 games in Chapel Hill. :)

UNC and UGA are 42-8 combined (both 21-4). They are both on track... still early... to be national (top 8) seeds. [I'm not predicting that]

Obviously, I am aware of the the pessimistic angle on all this. ...but if you told me after the NE game, we'd be 3-3 in the ACC right now, I would have taken that. There are 24 ACC games left and based on what's happened across the conference so far this season... ANYTHING can happen. There have been some whacky results.
 

gtbeak

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386
Doesn't cost a lot to be optimistic. I'll 'try' :)

The Jackets have improved in pitching and defense. Is it enough to matter... maybe. We'll see. Offense is still very good... although, I'd argue not as consistent or as potent as in recent years. NET ... I think the team shows signs they can get to the post-season. Need to keep grinding, keep executing, avoid any significant injuries, and figure out the things that have been problems... namely timely/situational hitting at key times in games.

At 16-7, worth noting that 5 of the 7 loses have been against UNC and UGA (all 5 of these losses are away from home). RPI is improving... up 20 spots to mid-50s after losing 2.1 games in Chapel Hill. :)

UNC and UGA are 42-8 combined (both 21-4). They are both on track... still early... to be national (top 8) seeds. [I'm not predicting that]

Obviously, I am aware of the the pessimistic angle on all this. ...but if you told me after the NE game, we'd be 3-3 in the ACC right now, I would have taken that. There are 24 ACC games left and based on what's happened across the conference so far this season... ANYTHING can happen. There have been some whacky results.
I would argue we have already had a significant injury with Giesler being out for 4 weeks now. Getting his bat back in the lineup would be a big help, and the question of where he plays would be a nice problem to have. As it stands, the only consistently good bats have been the two freshmen, with Jones and Yunger also hitting pretty well albeit at a slightly lower level than Burress and Kerce. We need to have at least two from the group of Green, Ellis Zmarzlak, and Giesler hitting, as when they are not we don't have a deep lineup. This weekend Green was 0 for 14, Ellis was 2 for 12 with no XBH, and Zmarzlak was 2 for 9. Giesler, of course, didn't play. Overall, I agree that the offense is still above average but not as consistent or potent as last season.

I agree that defense is much improved. I'm not as convinced the pitching is improved. There have been flashes, but way too much inconsistency. Hopefully yesterday was just one of those days from McGuire. We need to get Finateri going again, he has not been real good in the two ACC starts. The pitching has been better mid-week (thanks Carson Ballard!!!), so that helps the overall stats. But in ACC play (and also the UGa series), the numbers are a little bit worse for ERA and walks compared to last year. I will grant you that we have played three tough teams in those three series, and that certainly should be expected to skew the numbers. I should also note that, so far, across the conference scoring is up quite a bit in ACC games, so that should also be considered. Although doing that makes our offensive numbers look even a little bit worse than stated above. I'll go with the pitching is SLIGHTLY improved over last season.
 
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gtbeak

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Looks like today's game has been postponed. With the Boston College series being scheduled for Thursday - Saturday to accomodate Easter Sunday, the game can't simply be pushed back a day. I'm guessing it will likely be canceled as finding an open date to re-schedule will be difficult.

I wonder if this will allow Carson Ballard to be considered for his first ACC appearance this weekend.

 

FredJacket

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Pulse check...
Anybody see signs this season gets turned around?

The NC State series is the obvious bright spot. Great sweep at the time & still holds water. NC State 8-1 in ACC outside that series.

Just feels like the ceiling is bottom part of middle tier of the conference (8th-10th). The conference schedule the rest of the way is brutal too.

I can't say I ever [really] thought it would be a great season results-wise... but they did tease me with that NC State deal. I'm easily teased.
 

GTNavyNuke

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Pulse check...
Anybody see signs this season gets turned around?

The NC State series is the obvious bright spot. Great sweep at the time & still holds water. NC State 8-1 in ACC outside that series.

Just feels like the ceiling is bottom part of middle tier of the conference (8th-10th). The conference schedule the rest of the way is brutal too.

I can't say I ever [really] thought it would be a great season results-wise... but they did tease me with that NC State deal. I'm easily teased.

I don't see any hope of becoming relevant this year. I thought we'd be about 14-16 in ACC and not make NCAAT this year; but we are worse than that. Last night's win was just lip stick on a pig to me. The players battled and came back from a hole we never should have been in the first place. Presbyterian has a 215 RPI, the next weakest for us this season is Mercer (123) then most of the rest are in top 50.

I *think* the problem is likely all the transfers not producing as expected and the GT recruited players not developing as one would have hoped.

Good side is I'm focusing more on the cycling season and spending more time in the mountains with less distractions. That's my bright spot.
 

bensaysitathome

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Pulse check...
Anybody see signs this season gets turned around?

The NC State series is the obvious bright spot. Great sweep at the time & still holds water. NC State 8-1 in ACC outside that series.

Just feels like the ceiling is bottom part of middle tier of the conference (8th-10th). The conference schedule the rest of the way is brutal too.

I can't say I ever [really] thought it would be a great season results-wise... but they did tease me with that NC State deal. I'm easily teased.
I think inherently, a team full of transfers will take time to gel. The optimist in me will be forever waiting for that moment, but the realist in me will always be hesitant to buy in.

The team is objectively talented. It's just a matter of when it all clicks. But if we lose the next 6 acc games it might not matter. I'll probably still watch.
 

gtbeak

Jolly Good Fellow
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386
Pulse check...
Anybody see signs this season gets turned around?

The NC State series is the obvious bright spot. Great sweep at the time & still holds water. NC State 8-1 in ACC outside that series.

Just feels like the ceiling is bottom part of middle tier of the conference (8th-10th). The conference schedule the rest of the way is brutal too.

I can't say I ever [really] thought it would be a great season results-wise... but they did tease me with that NC State deal. I'm easily teased.
Obviously this team isn't what they showed against NC State, but I think just as obviously this team isn't what they showed last weekend against BC. The Presbyterian team, that seems to be a decent team, certainly better than their 200-something RPI says. They played UGa tight in a mid-week game in February, losing 4-3. They didn't fold against South Carolina after falling behind 9-0 and 17-6. And they have taken road series against Longwood and Gardner-Webb. So there is a little something in that dugout. Fred, as you mention, the schedule ahead is difficult, so that makes me think they will fall a bit short of my 13-17 prediction. Right now I'm going with 11-19. I think that means, after boiling down all my words above, that I don't think the season gets turned around :confused: But I do think there will be another weekend or two where this team plays well and beats a good team.
 

GTRambler

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I don’t know what our baseball team is going to do during the rest of this month, and on through the month of May. I also don’t know whether the team will qualify for the ACC Tournament.

But I know I will continue to watch and support our team, all the way to the end.

“In baseball, you don’t know nothing.” — Yogi Berra
 

senoiajacket

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This team, emphasis on pitching, is too inconsistent. One putting good, two putting bad and seemingly not much in between. It’s not just the young guys either.

I would guess somewhere around 10-20 for conference record, which is inexcusable. We may or may not make the ACC tourney with that record, but it won’t matter much either way.
 

MWBATL

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6,214
This team, emphasis on pitching, is too inconsistent. One putting good, two putting bad and seemingly not much in between. It’s not just the young guys either.

I would guess somewhere around 10-20 for conference record, which is inexcusable. We may or may not make the ACC tourney with that record, but it won’t matter much either way.
Maybe we hired the wrong pitching coach. Maybe we should have gone after someone with high major experience.

Just a clueless comment from a fan searching for a reason....
 

FredJacket

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Let's consider a path to a post-season bid. For what it is worth, I believe if the season ended today, Ga Tech has earned a spot. I also believe one must diminish RPI's usefulness to come to that conclusion, so.. the committee may not agree with me as of now. I will check to confirm in the next day or so... but I'm willing to bet if you look at a large sample of ranking/rating systems as they come out in the next day or so, Ga Tech's RPI will be well below their 'average' across the sample (teaser/spoiler for later in the week). Obviously, it doesn't matter what the field should/would look like today because what matters is how things finish. Not an easy path for Ga Tech.

Last weeks D1 Baseball projection (dated 17 April) for the post-season had 9 ACC teams in the field. Pretty safe to say 8 is the min and 10 is the max; but let's go with an expectation that 9 ACC teams get in. Ga Tech is currently tied for 9th (w Louisville) with a .500 ACC record. There really is some separation from Ga Tech / Louisville (9th/10th) and the bottom 4 teams (Miami, BC, ND, and Pitt). If those teams "improve" and go .500 the rest of the way... 11th place (has to be Miami, right?) will finish with at least 18 or 19 losses. We play Miami next at home. Our best shot at burying them. Bottom line... it seems like 10th place is Ga Tech's floor right now. I don't think 10th place gets you in... especially if you're below .500 and we need to finish 6-6 to get stay at .500. Not easy given our schedule. Road series at Clemson and FSU... both at the top of the conference and stellar home records. Home series v Miami and Duke. Any series loss at home will be devastating. This weekend is huge; and frankly our best chance to sweep (not predicting that but that would go a long way in helping the cause).


In addition, we need to be big fans of Va Tech, UVA, and NC State. Our series wins against them need to look REALLY REALLY good at season's end in case we end up 14-16 and 9th in the ACC.


BTW... BC was 'in' D1 Baseball's projected field as of 17 April before they were swept by ND this weekend. So.. they would drop out. Replaced by Ga Tech or Louisville?? ...or ACC just loses a team and it's down 8 now? No ACC team was listed in "First 4 out" category.


Perspective is a good thing too. This team was not expected or predicted to make the post-season. I'm willing to concede the expectation of this program (generally) should always be making the post-season (ALWAYS)... and there are many posts/threads dedicated to how disappointing it is when we don't and why that happens and how to remedy it. However, it's worth considering the 2024 season out of that context too. If this team manages to power through over these next 4 weeks (plus the ACCT) and make the post-season, it is a very good story for Ga Tech baseball. Personally, I've counted them out several times already this season... but they keep drawing me back in with their perseverance. It's fun.
 

Golden Tornadoes

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Not sure where to put this question, but does the run-rule win Friday affect RPI more than a normal win would? Does RPI factor in scores or is it just based off rankings, W/L's and site of game?
 

FredJacket

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Not sure where to put this question, but does the run-rule win Friday affect RPI more than a normal win would? Does RPI factor in scores or is it just based off rankings, W/L's and site of game?
Win margin has no impact on the RPI calculation. You are correct, it is only W/L up or down with a factor for home/road/neutral to 'weight' the winning percentages.
 

gtbeak

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386
I'm now suspicious that one of you guys are Danny Hall or James Ramsey hiding behind an internet handle! The NCAA has fixed the RPI issue around the Sunday game against UGa and is now properly classifying it as a neutral site game. As a result our RPI went up 3 spots to 57. Marginal, as I expected, but marginal might matter come Memorial Day.

I think we should take credit for getting that one fixed. Good job GT Swarm!

1713873463834.png
 

FredJacket

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I'm now suspicious that one of you guys are Danny Hall or James Ramsey hiding behind an internet handle! The NCAA has fixed the RPI issue around the Sunday game against UGa and is now properly classifying it as a neutral site game. As a result our RPI went up 3 spots to 57. Marginal, as I expected, but marginal might matter come Memorial Day.

I think we should take credit for getting that one fixed. Good job GT Swarm!

View attachment 16028
FEEL THE POWER?! @gtbeak as far as I know you were 1st to highlight this. All credit to you. 3 spots! Interesting.

I have never read the D1 Baseball "chat" they do on Mondays (I think its only Mondays)... but yesterday I clicked on it. Something a non-subscriber can read, apparently. A few questions were posted to the D1 gang about Ga Tech and their chances of making the post-season. A.Fitt was most active about responding to the GT stuff. His take... right now... the RPI is not good enough; but the trend would/could put Ga Tech in the field. He (correctly, I think) sees the RPI only improving based on the competition upcoming. He threw out a 14-16 conference record as 'in play' IF the RPI does improve enough. He did not put a number on the RPI. It is interesting when they talk about this stuff, they don't really even address the conference tournament showing on how that could impact things.
 
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