2024 non-GT games thread

[stinger78]

If A&M beats Texas and UGA beats Tennessee, the SEC could end with a 7-way tie for 2nd place in the conference. Does any conference have tie-breaker rules for that? Would the CFP just put all 8 teams in the playoffs??? After all, it's the SEC.

No.
Yes, of course.

 

[slugboy]

Really? Sheesh, that's not a good look.

But could also be a bad look for O'Brien.

Bill O’Brien’s NFL reputation was “good with X’s and O’s; terrible with personnel”.

Castellanos may have been a bad fit for O’Brien’s offense. This is a bad look for both of them.

If I was a coach that could be successful with a running QB, I’d look at Castellanos. Attitude is important, but he could be fed up with his head coach—and he wouldn’t be the first player fed up with Bill O’Brien

 

[stinger78]

Bill O’Brien’s NFL reputation was “good with X’s and O’s; terrible with personnel”.

Castellanos may have been a bad fit for O’Brien’s offense. This is a bad look for both of them.

If I was a coach that could be successful with a running QB, I’d look at Castellanos. Attitude is important, but he could be fed up with his head coach—and he wouldn’t be the first player fed up with Bill O’Brien

Yeah, I kind of had the same thought. TC was putting together a pretty good season. Had a bad game or two. Lots of egos involved.

 

[kg01]

Bill O’Brien’s NFL reputation was “good with X’s and O’s; terrible with personnel”.

Castellanos may have been a bad fit for O’Brien’s offense. This is a bad look for both of them.

If I was a coach that could be successful with a running QB, I’d look at Castellanos. Attitude is important, but he could be fed up with his head coach—and he wouldn’t be the first player fed up with Bill O’Brien

This is what I wanted to say, but was afraid I'd get blowback. Glad you're hear to take all the slings 'n arrows.

 

[slugboy]

This is what I wanted to say, but was afraid I'd get blowback. Glad you're hear to take all the slings 'n arrows.

It came up when he was rumored as a potential head coach here—but I also think he said “no thanks” via his agent

 

[CEB]

If A&M beats Texas and UGA beats Tennessee, the SEC could end with a 7-way tie for 2nd place in the conference. Does any conference have tie-breaker rules for that? Would the CFP just put all 8 teams in the playoffs??? After all, it's the SEC.

I’m sure it will work out (it always does, mostly because it has to), but don’t all of these conferences have at least some level of tiebreaker tied to the CFP rankings?
I’m a little troubled by the CFP rankings right now. They appear to be giving record tremendous weight while ignoring the quality of opponents.
There is HUGE disparity in schedules right now and I expect wild movement over the next few weeks when they have to take a critical look at what these teams have really achieved.
All of this is to say, the potential 2-loss SEC teams are far from equal.
Mizzou paper Tigers haven’t (and won’t) beat anyone of consequence this season and have been stomped by the only two good teams they played.
Not that I’ll lose any sleep if they’re slighted, but uGA will presumably be 2-2 against that group of 2-loss teams, whereas Mizzou and Texas would be 0-2 against the group (yeah, Texas won’t have achieved much if they don’t beat aTm). I didn’t run down the whole list, but several of the 2-loss teams in that scenario will not have beaten any of the top 8 teams in the conference. Surely that has to be a consideration.

 

[stinger78]

I’m sure it will work out (it always does, mostly because it has to), but don’t all of these conferences have at least some level of tiebreaker tied to the CFP rankings?
I’m a little troubled by the CFP rankings right now. They appear to be giving record tremendous weight while ignoring the quality of opponents.
There is HUGE disparity in schedules right now and I expect wild movement over the next few weeks when they have to take a critical look at what these teams have really achieved.
All of this is to say, the potential 2-loss SEC teams are far from equal.
Mizzou paper Tigers haven’t (and won’t) beat anyone of consequence this season and have been stomped by the only two good teams they played.
Not that I’ll lose any sleep if they’re slighted, but uGA will presumably be 2-2 against that group of 2-loss teams, whereas Mizzou and Texas would be 0-2 against the group (yeah, Texas won’t have achieved much if they don’t beat aTm). I didn’t run down the whole list, but several of the 2-loss teams in that scenario will not have beaten any of the top 8 teams in the conference. Surely that has to be a consideration.

I've resigned myself to the conviction that the CFP will be an annual showcase of the SECheat/Big Integer top teams. I just don't expect any different, and won't hold my breath, but I wait to be proven wrong.

 

[CEB]

I've resigned myself to the conviction that the CFP will be an annual showcase of the SECheat/Big Integer top teams. I just don't expect any different, and won't hold my breath, but I wait to be proven wrong.

Right now, the favoritism is all BIG…
But to be honest, they’re just considering records (or at least weighting record EXTREMELY heavily).
Indiana and Penn St are there solely based on record. To be fair, so is Texas. PSU is forgiven for losing to OSU and Tx is forgiven for UGA but who have they beaten? The best win out of all three teams is PSU over a 6-win Illini. The committee right now is telling teams to AVOID tough schedules, which is exactly contrary to what we were led to believe in all of this mess.
At any rate, your point is valid… these records for BIG / SEC teams will be touted when the CFP awards them 8 spots. The irony if they get more than 8 is they’ll be stealing it from a presumably 1-loss ND… again, no sleep lost for me.

 

[g0lftime]

I've resigned myself to the conviction that the CFP will be an annual showcase of the SECheat/Big Integer top teams. I just don't expect any different, and won't hold my breath, but I wait to be proven wrong.

They set it up to make sure they have the highest probability to win it.

 

[roadkill]

Right now, the favoritism is all BIG…
But to be honest, they’re just considering records (or at least weighting record EXTREMELY heavily).
Indiana and Penn St are there solely based on record. To be fair, so is Texas. PSU is forgiven for losing to OSU and Tx is forgiven for UGA but who have they beaten? The best win out of all three teams is PSU over a 6-win Illini. The committee right now is telling teams to AVOID tough schedules, which is exactly contrary to what we were led to believe in all of this mess.
At any rate, your point is valid… these records for BIG / SEC teams will be touted when the CFP awards them 8 spots. The irony if they get more than 8 is they’ll be stealing it from a presumably 1-loss ND… again, no sleep lost for me.

Yes, right now the CFP committee seems to be weighing W/L most heavily...unless you're in the BIG or SEC, in which case they credit you for "good" losses.

Overrated and Underrated teams

The article makes a case for SMU being underrated. If you're going to play the Strength of Schedule card, why rank Indiana #5?

 

[orientalnc]

If A&M beats Texas and UGA beats Tennessee, the SEC could end with a 7-way tie for 2nd place in the conference. Does any conference have tie-breaker rules for that? Would the CFP just put all 8 teams in the playoffs??? After all, it's the SEC.

In this scenario:

Texas' signature win early in the season was over Michigan, a team that is now scrambling to become bowl eligible at 6-6. Then they beat Oklahoma and everyone went gaga over the juggernaut from Austin. They lost to uga and beat Vandy, a team that had recently lost to Ga State. If they lose to A&M it's probable they will not have beaten a single team with a winning record.

If they lose to uga, Tennessee will have beaten one team with a winning record (Alabama).

Alabama is 3-1 against those potential 2 loss teams, but that ugly loss to Vandy really stands out.

Ole Miss is 1-1 against those 2-loss teams and has only one other win over teams with a winning record. Plus that loss to Kentucky at home still stinks in Oxford.

uga has a 1-2 record against the 3-loss crowd and needs to beat Tennessee to salvage their season.

A&M has beaten Missouri and LSU, but has to beat Texas to have any chance to make the CFP.

Missouri is 0-2 against the 2-loss teams and needs to beat SC in order to have a single win against teams with a winning record.

LSU is one of those 2-loss teams, but they have that ugly loss to USC and are not going to the CFP.

Texas 0-1
Tenn 1-1
Bama 3-1
Miss 1-1
uga 2-2
Mo 0-1
LSU 1-1

Bama would win the tie breaker on the first rule (Head-to-head competition among the tied teams) and play A&M for the SEC's automatic spot in the CFP.

 

[CEB]

Yes, right now the CFP committee seems to be weighing W/L most heavily...unless you're in the BIG or SEC, in which case they credit you for "good" losses.

Overrated and Underrated teams

The article makes a case for SMU being underrated. If you're going to play the Strength of Schedule card, why rank Indiana #5?

I hadn’t seen that article, but obviously I agree!
Ole Miss projects better than I realized but otherwise the rest is easy to see. It’s a weird ranking they’ve put out this week…. There’s no way we can expect them to drop IU 8 spots for losing to OSU, so Indiana (wow) is a virtual lock.

 

[stinger78]

I hadn’t seen that article, but obviously I agree!
Ole Miss projects better than I realized but otherwise the rest is easy to see. It’s a weird ranking they’ve put out this week…. There’s no way we can expect them to drop IU 8 spots for losing to OSU, so Indiana (wow) is a virtual lock.

Kind of like Miami.

 

[CEB]

In this scenario:

Texas' signature win early in the season was over Michigan, a team that is now scrambling to become bowl eligible at 6-6. Then they beat Oklahoma and everyone went gaga over the juggernaut from Austin. They lost to uga and beat Vandy, a team that had recently lost to Ga State. If they lose to A&M it's probable they will not have beaten a single team with a winning record.

If they lose to uga, Tennessee will have beaten one team with a winning record (Alabama).

Alabama is 3-1 against those potential 2 loss teams, but that ugly loss to Vandy really stands out.

Ole Miss is 1-1 against those 2-loss teams and has only one other win over teams with a winning record. Plus that loss to Kentucky at home still stinks in Oxford.

uga has a 1-2 record against the 3-loss crowd and needs to beat Tennessee to salvage their season.

A&M has beaten Missouri and LSU, but has to beat Texas to have any chance to make the CFP.

Missouri is 0-2 against the 2-loss teams and needs to beat SC in order to have a single win against teams with a winning record.

LSU is one of those 2-loss teams, but they have that ugly loss to USC and are not going to the CFP.

Texas 0-1
Tenn 1-1
Bama 3-1
Miss 1-1
uga 2-2
Mo 0-1
LSU 1-1

Bama would win the tie breaker on the first rule (Head-to-head competition among the tied teams) and play A&M for the SEC's automatic spot in the CFP.

Good work!
It’s obvious Bama and uGA drew the toughest schedules.
If TN has wins over both, it’s tough to say they don’t deserve the nod.
Tx needs to be REALLY impressive against aTm in my opinion, but they are so high up that they could lose, not go to the SECCG and still be a lock for CFP.

LSU and Mizzou should be out period.

Ole Miss is squarely in the discussion but they need to root for Texas and Tennessee to get uGA and aTm out of their way

 

[roadkill]

I hadn’t seen that article, but obviously I agree!
Ole Miss projects better than I realized but otherwise the rest is easy to see. It’s a weird ranking they’ve put out this week…. There’s no way we can expect them to drop IU 8 spots for losing to OSU, so Indiana (wow) is a virtual lock.

Something else that I had not realized before reading about it is that the playoff teams are not the teams ranked 1-12 by the committee. If one of the 5 highest-ranked conference champions is ranked slightly below 12 (likely for a G5 and possible for the ACC), they "bump" the #12 team out. And possibly the #11. It's always the 5 highest ranked conference champs plus the next 7.

 

[CEB]

Something else that I had not realized before reading about it is that the playoff teams are not the teams ranked 1-12 by the committee. If one of the 5 highest-ranked conference champions is ranked slightly below 12 (likely for a G5 and possible for the ACC), they "bump" the #12 team out. And possibly the #11. It's always the 5 highest ranked conference champs plus the next 7.

Yup…
In the most theoretical of theoreticals, only a top 7 ranking is a CFP lock. If upsets happened just right, all five conference champions could be outside of the top seven ranking.
Befor someone exclaims that it could never happen, I would counter that for the BIG and the SEC, there will probably be many times where one team (if not both) is a lock for CFP regardless, and they resort to player management in the conf championship.
Conf championships will “just mean more” in the ACC, B12 and G5

I’ll also say… the CFP committee needs to be careful with how they treat championship game losers. I think the championship games will go away ultimately but the committee can speed that up considerably if they drop losers too much.

 

[UgaBlows]

In this scenario:

Texas' signature win early in the season was over Michigan, a team that is now scrambling to become bowl eligible at 6-6. Then they beat Oklahoma and everyone went gaga over the juggernaut from Austin. They lost to uga and beat Vandy, a team that had recently lost to Ga State. If they lose to A&M it's probable they will not have beaten a single team with a winning record.

If they lose to uga, Tennessee will have beaten one team with a winning record (Alabama).

Alabama is 3-1 against those potential 2 loss teams, but that ugly loss to Vandy really stands out.

Ole Miss is 1-1 against those 2-loss teams and has only one other win over teams with a winning record. Plus that loss to Kentucky at home still stinks in Oxford.

uga has a 1-2 record against the 3-loss crowd and needs to beat Tennessee to salvage their season.

A&M has beaten Missouri and LSU, but has to beat Texas to have any chance to make the CFP.

Missouri is 0-2 against the 2-loss teams and needs to beat SC in order to have a single win against teams with a winning record.

LSU is one of those 2-loss teams, but they have that ugly loss to USC and are not going to the CFP.

Texas 0-1
Tenn 1-1
Bama 3-1
Miss 1-1
uga 2-2
Mo 0-1
LSU 1-1

Bama would win the tie breaker on the first rule (Head-to-head competition among the tied teams) and play A&M for the SEC's automatic spot in the CFP.

Could LSU still make it to the conf championship game? Win that and they are in

 

[roadkill]

the CFP committee needs to be careful with how they treat championship game losers.

This could get interesting, especially for the SEC. There's a decent chance their championship loser will have 3 losses. Do they get in the CFP over several other 2-loss teams? Or does a 2-loss team in the SEC, that may have already lost to the 3-loss team, get a higher ranking? All I know is that there will be some upset fanbases regardless of what happens.

 

[billga99]

This could get interesting, especially for the SEC. There's a decent chance their championship loser will have 3 losses. Do they get in the CFP over several other 2-loss teams? Or does a 2-loss team in the SEC, that may have already lost to the 3-loss team, get a higher ranking? All I know is that there will be some upset fanbases regardless of what happens.

I think the 3-loss team after losing a championship game is the toughest decision. I think undefeated or 1 loss team going to 2 losses (if they are the SEC or B10) should still make it. However if you look at the ACC, say MIami and SMU play in the ACC Championpship as 1 loss teams, I would bet the loser is out. But if both teams are ranked in the Top 12 and qualify for the playoffs before a championship game, it just seems unfair to knock them out.

 

[stinger78]

How do you knock a 2-loss P4 runner-up out of a 12-team playoff?