2024 non-GT games thread

[MWBATL]

How do you knock a 2-loss P4 runner-up out of a 12-team playoff?

Just wait and watch…you’ll see….

 

[stinger78]

Just wait and watch…you’ll see….

Oh, I don't doubt they will, I just don't understand how they do it other than crookedness.

 

[orientalnc]

Could LSU still make it to the conf championship game? Win that and they are in

I believe the answer is no. They already have two losses and they lose the tie breaker no matter what lese happens.

 

[UgaBlows]

Apparently (according to secrant) if LSU wins out and uga beats Tenn, and Arky beats Mizzu they might be in

 

[CEB]

I think the 3-loss team after losing a championship game is the toughest decision. I think undefeated or 1 loss team going to 2 losses (if they are the SEC or B10) should still make it. However if you look at the ACC, say MIami and SMU play in the ACC Championpship as 1 loss teams, I would bet the loser is out. But if both teams are ranked in the Top 12 and qualify for the playoffs before a championship game, it just seems unfair to knock them out.

Agree…
But it will, and that’s why I think the days of conf champ games are numbered.

Consider BYU…
They are undefeated and have TWO wins over teams currently ranked 16 and 14. Yet they are behind IU and PSU, who have ZERO wins COMBINED over top 25 teams.

If BYU loses the B12 CG to Colorado, they’re out, but IU can lose to OSU and they and PSU can watch the BIGCG from their living rooms and punch their tickets to CFP (probably hosting first round games at that).

IU and PSU might actually be top 5 teams, but we aren’t going to know until they’ve already taken a CFP spot. The scheduling disparity is massive, and the CFP Committee (so far) turning a blind eye to it is borderline criminal.

 

[CEB]

Apparently (according to secrant) if LSU wins out and uga beats Tenn, and Arky beats Mizzu they might be in

I haven’t scrutinized the tiebreaker rules but having lost to aTm and Bama, it seems they need a lot more help than that.
When we get into a 5 team logjam, who knows? Maybe if Ole Miss finished with 2 losses they get some edge?

 

[Techwood Relict]

This is what I wanted to say, but was afraid I'd get blowback.

You, afraid of blowback?

 

[kg01]

You, afraid of blowback?

 

[UgaBlows]

I haven’t scrutinized the tiebreaker rules but having lost to aTm and Bama, it seems they need a lot more help than that.
When we get into a 5 team logjam, who knows? Maybe if Ole Miss finished with 2 losses they get some edge?

Ole Miss has lost to KY and LSU

 

[orientalnc]

Let's look at the B1G.

Indiana is undefeated, but their signature win is Nebraska. No, that's not right. They don't have a signature win. Their only tough game is coming up in 8 days @ Ohio St.
Oregon has beaten Boise St & Ohio St by a total of four points. No one else on their schedule matters.
Ohio St lost to Oregon by 1 and beat Penn St by a TD. Their upcoming home with Indiana will decide if they are in the CG.
Penn St lost the only game on their schedule that mattered. Even if Indiana loses, Ohio St holds the tiebreaker over Penn St.

It's going to be Oregon v. either Indiana or Ohio St in CG.

The B1G is a terrible conference except for the top 3 or 4 teams.

 

[CEB]

Ole Miss has lost to KY and LSU

The “they” I was referring to was LSU. It was in response to your post saying LSU has a chance.
If had typed a clear and complete thought, that post would’ve looked like:

I haven’t scrutinized the tiebreaker rules but having lost to aTm and Bama, it seems they LSU need a lot more help than that.
When we get into a 5 team logjam, who knows? Maybe if Ole Miss finished with 2 losses they LSU get some edge in the tie break procedures by having a win over another team involved in the tiebreakers?

 

[RonJohn]

The “they” I was referring to was LSU. It was in response to your post saying LSU has a chance.
If had typed a clear and complete thought, that post would’ve looked like:

I haven’t scrutinized the tiebreaker rules but having lost to aTm and Bama, it seems they LSU need a lot more help than that.
When we get into a 5 team logjam, who knows? Maybe if Ole Miss finished with 2 losses they LSU get some edge in the tie break procedures by having a win over another team involved in the tiebreakers?

The SEC tie breaker rules are:

1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
3. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
4. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
6. Random draw of the tied teams

I think there are three teams with 1 loss. If Tenn wins out and the winner of the TX - A&M game remains at one loss, then the standings are easy. I have not looked at the SEC standings to check, but I seriously doubt there is a round-robin of all of the two loss teams. If there is a 5 to 7 team tie with two losses, then it is doubtful that there will be any common opponents to all teams, so 2 and 3 don't apply. The cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents should yield a winner, or at least drop down to a couple of teams remaining. I didn't thoroughly read the SEC tiebreaker document, but I would think if it drops down to only two teams remaining that you would start the process over at number 1.

 

[CEB]

Let's look at the B1G.

Indiana is undefeated, but their signature win is Nebraska. No, that's not right. They don't have a signature win. Their only tough game is coming up in 8 days @ Ohio St.
Oregon has beaten Boise St & Ohio St by a total of four points. No one else on their schedule matters.
Ohio St lost to Oregon by 1 and beat Penn St by a TD. Their upcoming home with Indiana will decide if they are in the CG.
Penn St lost the only game on their schedule that mattered. Even if Indiana loses, Ohio St holds the tiebreaker over Penn St.

It's going to be Oregon v. either Indiana or Ohio St in CG.

The B1G is a terrible conference except for the top 3 or 4 teams.

It’s an issue. BIG is going to take 1/3 of CFP spots and “Strength of schedule” is going to be used to exclude a SMU, BYU, Miami, Army, Boise or even Washington State. To be clear, I don’t think Wazzoo needs to be there, but Wazzoo’s best win (Washington) looks a whole lot like the best win for IU and PSU (Washington also, if you need help connecting dots).

 

[CEB]

The SEC tie breaker rules are:

1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
3. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
4. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
6. Random draw of the tied teams

I think there are three teams with 1 loss. If Tenn wins out and the winner of the TX - A&M game remains at one loss, then the standings are easy. I have not looked at the SEC standings to check, but I seriously doubt there is a round-robin of all of the two loss teams. If there is a 5 to 7 team tie with two losses, then it is doubtful that there will be any common opponents to all teams, so 2 and 3 don't apply. The cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents should yield a winner, or at least drop down to a couple of teams remaining. I didn't thoroughly read the SEC tiebreaker document, but I would think if it drops down to only two teams remaining that you would start the process over at number 1.

Correct… a VOLS win makes it simple.
The original premise was a uGA win to create a logjam of 2-loss teams behind the winner of Tx v aTm.
The question then morphed to whether or not LSU has a shot at the SECCG to steal a bid. No one has been willing to crunch those numbers (yet)… I’m still not.

 

[UgaBlows]

Again this is what some LSU guy says….i’m not sure why he thinks the first 3 tie-breakers would not be used?

If all of the current 2 loss teams win out, that would put the final teams @ 2 conference losses:
BAMA
UGA
MISS
MIZZ
TENN
LSU
TEXAS/TEXAS A&M

……now, tie breakers. The first 3 tie breaker metrics would not be used, therefore using the 4th. That rule is: “ Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams”

Guess who would play in the SECCG?

Texas/Texas A&M winner vs. LSU

 

[orientalnc]

Again this is what some LSU guy says….i’m not sure why he thinks the first 3 tie-breakers would not be used?

If all of the current 2 loss teams win out, that would put the final teams @ 2 conference losses:
BAMA
UGA
MISS
MIZZ
TENN
LSU
TEXAS/TEXAS A&M

……now, tie breakers. The first 3 tie breaker metrics would not be used, therefore using the 4th. That rule is: “ Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams”

Guess who would play in the SECCG?

Texas/Texas A&M winner vs. LSU

The SEC will step down through the tiebreaker rules until they have a winner.

 

[UgaBlows]

It’s hard for me to comprehend how Lsu could jump Bama into the ccg when Bama beat LSU?

 

[CEB]

Again this is what some LSU guy says….i’m not sure why he thinks the first 3 tie-breakers would not be used?

If all of the current 2 loss teams win out, that would put the final teams @ 2 conference losses:
BAMA
UGA
MISS
MIZZ
TENN
LSU
TEXAS/TEXAS A&M

……now, tie breakers. The first 3 tie breaker metrics would not be used, therefore using the 4th. That rule is: “ Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams”

Guess who would play in the SECCG?

Texas/Texas A&M winner vs. LSU

I presume he means 1-3 can’t be employed as a tie breaker because there is not a common opponent to all tied teams.
As far as percentage, I’d have to take his word for it.
I’m sure four or five of them will land in the CFP regardless (for all of my griping about the BIG, if they do leave out an IU, they’ll do it for an SEC team)

 

[RonJohn]

Again this is what some LSU guy says….i’m not sure why he thinks the first 3 tie-breakers would not be used?

If all of the current 2 loss teams win out, that would put the final teams @ 2 conference losses:
BAMA
UGA
MISS
MIZZ
TENN
LSU
TEXAS/TEXAS A&M

……now, tie breakers. The first 3 tie breaker metrics would not be used, therefore using the 4th. That rule is: “ Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams”

Guess who would play in the SECCG?

Texas/Texas A&M winner vs. LSU

A big problem with his assessment is that nobody knows what the final win percentage of their opponents is. Tenn might look good at the moment, but they play 2-4 UF, 3-3 Vandy, and 1-5 OK in their next three games. Lose one of those games and they are out. Win those games and it is possible to add 2-6, 3-5, and 1-6 to their conference opponents win percentage calculation. I am not going to go through speculative match on how they would end up compared to other teams, but I don't think having three of the bottom 5 teams included in your "Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents" would lead to getting into the championship game. They might have the best win percentage at the moment. I suspect that is what the LSU guy is basing it off of --What would happen right now if the SEC got to that tiebreaker item. However, the next three games for LSU are against trash teams. Lose one game and they are out. Win all three and it further reduces LSU in comparison with the other teams.

 

[orientalnc]

I went through the hypothetical where uga beats Tenn and A&M beats Texas. If Tenn beats uga and Vandy they are in the CG. Whichever team wins the A&M/Texas game is in (assuming they win their other conference games). It gets sticky if uga beats Tenn and Texas beats A&M. uga, A&M, Bama, Miss, Tenn, Missouri, & LSU could all be tied for 2nd. This is essentially the same scenario as I went through before with A&M beating Texas. To repeat, if they win their other games, the winner of the A&M/Texas game is in the CG. The loser falls into the group with two losses. Tenn is in the CG if they beat uga and Vandy.

Assuming all these teams win the games where they will be solid favorites, this is all that could happen if my view of it is correct. I do not see a likely scenario where LSU gets to the CG. It would take some huge upsets.

The 1st tiebreaker rule is "Head-to-head competition among the tied teams." They do not have to play every tied team for this rule to apply.