2023 ACC News & Discussion

[UgaBlows]

Well, this would be one way to make me stay up late watching west coast football games....

Duke vs. San Jose St after dark…….lets f’ng go!

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

I really don't think the big10 wouldn't take us. The academic needs there are amazingly lined up. Negotiate with us withe GOR in place nah if the ACC itself implodes you bet your *** they want access to the atlanta market where alot of their alumni live and work.

I think this is the key and why we have a good shot at going there. Location, Location, Location plus aligned academics

 

[CEB]

I don’t see FSU beating GOR outright. I also don’t see FSU walking away from $35m / year and their TV rights without a landing spot. I also don’t see who would pay them more for diminished rights.

IF this is actually happening, I foresee a lawsuit alleging that FSU entered into GOR with expectations of market driven payout increases and ESPN has not lived up to their deal (evidence being the massive revenue increases for BIG / SEC). Honestly, it’s not a bad angle but certainly high risk / high reward.

The uneven revenue sharing demand is likely to soften the ACC to the notion of settlement with regard to GOR. There will have to be a settlement... I don’t see uneven revenue going anywhere (Lord I hope not) but it’s certainly a setup for what’s to come.

 

[bobongo]

I think this is the key and why we have a good shot at going there. Location, Location, Location plus aligned academics

To be sure, Tech has factors in its favor. Start winning and bringing the fans back and we might be able to make that jump when the time comes.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

In all honesty, FSU, Miami, GT and Virginia are part of the problem. We were supposed to be regularly nationally relevant with big time match-ups in conference. If it were not for Clemson it would be far worse. Had we all stayed regularly in the top 10 and top 20 we would not be having this discussion

 

[bobongo]

I don’t see FSU beating GOR outright. I also don’t see FSU walking away from $35m / year and their TV rights without a landing spot. I also don’t see who would pay them more for diminished rights.

IF this is actually happening, I foresee a lawsuit alleging that FSU entered into GOR with expectations of market driven payout increases and ESPN has not lived up to their deal (evidence being the massive revenue increases for BIG / SEC). Honestly, it’s not a bad angle but certainly high risk / high reward.

The uneven revenue sharing demand is likely to soften the ACC to the notion of settlement with regard to GOR. There will have to be a settlement... I don’t see uneven revenue going anywhere (Lord I hope not) but it’s certainly a setup for what’s to come.

It looks like FSU has two choices. They can stay, or they can go, forfeiting their media rights for the next thirteen years.
The GOR agreement is in place, and it won't change unless a majority of the conference agrees. There's no reason to think that's even a remote possibility at present or in the near future.
FSU signed the GOR agreement, and they'll live with it.

This is the 2013 agreement, extended in 2016:

https://wwwcache.wralsportsfan.com/asset/colleges/ncsu/2022/07/05/20361238/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1-DMID1-5vgd1w2if.pdf

 

[g0lftime]

Just another example of how Swofford bungled the TV deal for the conference. Can the ACC renegotiate the TV deal or add another media outlet is the question.
FSU must think they are still a top 5 program. Let them play a SEC schedule and struggle to win half their games. Their AD may simply be trying to get some action out of the ACC office to generate more tv income but taking away from other members is pure folly on his part. I don't see that happening. Their only option to leave is probably the SEC. Not a fit for the B1G.

 

[CEB]

It looks like FSU has two choices. They can stay, or they can go, forfeiting their media rights for the next thirteen years.
The GOR agreement is in place, and it won't change unless a majority of the conference agrees. There's no reason to think that's even a remote possibility at present or in the near future.
FSU signed the GOR agreement, and they'll live with it.

This is the 2013 agreement, extended in 2016:

https://wwwcache.wralsportsfan.com/asset/colleges/ncsu/2022/07/05/20361238/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1-DMID1-5vgd1w2if.pdf

First off, I absolutely agree with you 100%. GOR is valid and here to stay unless and until it’s legally overturned or it sunsets as it was designed to do. FSU agreed to it and must abide by it.

BUT

I can’t believe they plan to forego 12 +/- years of revenue to jump ship now. I have to believe they see a way around the GOR. That’s where I think the infamous “Agreement” with ESPN provides their window of opportunity. I am 100% speculating, but my guess is that there are metrics in the agreement for increased revenues and this is where they plan to claim ESPN has not held up their end. They are going to file a suit and believe that if nothing else, a seat at the negotiating table is worth the risk. If it actually gets to the negotiating table, ten FSU is probably right.

The other alternatives are
1. FSU is leaving the ACC with virtually no media rights to their credit and will forego up to $400M in ACC payouts over the next 10-12 years to do so. They believe the risk of not solidifying a spot in the BIG/ SEC RIGHT NOW is worth the $400M risk.
2. FSU is leaving the ACC and has a soft landing spot with BIG / SEC that will allow them to get a partial payout for whatever value their new conference perceives them to be worth outside of the media rights they owe ACC / ESPN. That value is close enough to offset what they are leaving on the table by vacating the ACC until the GOR is gone.

I find both scenarios unlikely. I don’t think FSU walks from all of that money and I don’t see how another conference values them enough (without their media rights) to pay them anything approaching what the ACC would pay.

Without the details outlined in the ESPN agreement referenced in the GOR, we don’t know for certain what FSU has to do in order to live up to the GOR nor do we know what obligations ESPN has / had on their end. I have a feeling that FSU is setting up a case to say that they entered into the GOR with expectations that are not being met, therefore, they need to be compensated (either by ESPN paying more or by ACC unequal rev sharing) or they must be relieved from the GOR agreement.

 

[bobongo]

First off, I absolutely agree with you 100%. GOR is valid and here to stay unless and until it’s legally overturned or it sunsets as it was designed to do. FSU agreed to it and must abide by it.

BUT

I can’t believe they plan to forego 12 +/- years of revenue to jump ship now. I have to believe they see a way around the GOR. That’s where I think the infamous “Agreement” with ESPN provides their window of opportunity. I am 100% speculating, but my guess is that there are metrics in the agreement for increased revenues and this is where they plan to claim ESPN has not held up their end. They are going to file a suit and believe that if nothing else, a seat at the negotiating table is worth the risk. If it actually gets to the negotiating table, ten FSU is probably right.

The other alternatives are
1. FSU is leaving the ACC with virtually no media rights to their credit and will forego up to $400M in ACC payouts over the next 10-12 years to do so. They believe the risk of not solidifying a spot in the BIG/ SEC RIGHT NOW is worth the $400M risk.
2. FSU is leaving the ACC and has a soft landing spot with BIG / SEC that will allow them to get a partial payout for whatever value their new conference perceives them to be worth outside of the media rights they owe ACC / ESPN. That value is close enough to offset what they are leaving on the table by vacating the ACC until the GOR is gone.

I find both scenarios unlikely. I don’t think FSU walks from all of that money and I don’t see how another conference values them enough (without their media rights) to pay them anything approaching what the ACC would pay.

Without the details outlined in the ESPN agreement referenced in the GOR, we don’t know for certain what FSU has to do in order to live up to the GOR nor do we know what obligations ESPN has / had on their end. I have a feeling that FSU is setting up a case to say that they entered into the GOR with expectations that are not being met, therefore, they need to be compensated (either by ESPN paying more or by ACC unequal rev sharing) or they must be relieved from the GOR agreement.

This is what they have to find their way around:

"Each of the member institutions...agrees to satisfy and perform all contractual obligations of a Member Institution during the Term that are expressly set forth in the ESPN Agreement. The Grant of Rights...includes, without limitation, the right to produce and distribute all events of such Member Institution that are subject to the ESPN agreement..."

"Each of the Member Institutions acknowledges that the Grant of Rights during the entire Term is irrevocable and effective until the end of the term regardless of whether the Member Institution withdraws from the Conference during the Term or otherwise ceases to participate in the Conference in accordance with the Conference's Constitution and Bylaws."

 

[CEB]

This is what they have to find their way around:

"Each of the member institutions...agrees to satisfy and perform all contractual obligations of a Member Institution during the Term that are expressly set forth in the ESPN Agreement. The Grant of Rights...includes, without limitation, the right to produce and distribute all events of such Member Institution that are subject to the ESPN agreement..."

"Each of the Member Institutions acknowledges that the Grant of Rights during the entire Term is irrevocable and effective until the end of the term regardless of whether the Member Institution withdraws from the Conference during the Term or otherwise ceases to participate in the Conference in accordance with the Conference's Constitution and Bylaws."

Agreed.

So their options are:
1. Walk away from $400M +/- with little media value to offer potential suitors.
2. Argue that ESPN /ACC are not living up to their end of the agreement as presented when they signed GOR, knowing this will at least get them to the negotiating table.

The distant third option, (bordering conspiracy theory) is that more schools are involved and FSU has been the only vocal party so far. The schools involved would have a landing spot and would be paid some marginal amount (for things other than their media value) until such time that the GOR goes away and they are compensated as full members. Eventually it all comes down to a math problem, but I don’t see how the math works yet.

 

[GT33]

Duke vs. San Jose St after dark…….lets f’ng go!

If we played 8 divisional conference games, plus 3 alternating games against teams from the left coast (or Colorado, Tx, Ok) and then 1 OOC game which would be the mutts then we’d have a solid schedule every year. Just do it like the NFL, #1 ranked team gets the hardest schedule and #32 gets the easiest. Makes for a lot of parity and fan interest.

 

[UgaBlows]

This is what they have to find their way around:

"Each of the member institutions...agrees to satisfy and perform all contractual obligations of a Member Institution during the Term that are expressly set forth in the ESPN Agreement. The Grant of Rights...includes, without limitation, the right to produce and distribute all events of such Member Institution that are subject to the ESPN agreement..."

"Each of the Member Institutions acknowledges that the Grant of Rights during the entire Term is irrevocable and effective until the end of the term regardless of whether the Member Institution withdraws from the Conference during the Term or otherwise ceases to participate in the Conference in accordance with the Conference's Constitution and Bylaws."

No way would FSU leave without a landing spot in the SEC or BIG. IF fsu goes to the SEC then why would espn fight it? They own the media rights to both conferences, so if espn wants this to happen then the GOR is possibly a non-issue Or they have something figured out to get around it.

 

[bobongo]

If we played 8 divisional conference games, plus 3 alternating games against teams from the left coast (or Colorado, Tx, Ok) and then 1 OOC game which would be the mutts then we’d have a solid schedule every year. Just do it like the NFL, #1 ranked team gets the hardest schedule and #32 gets the easiest. Makes for a lot of parity and fan interest.

By far the main factor that makes for NFL parity is that #32 team in the NFL gets the top draft choice, #31 gets second draft choice, and so on.

 

[4shotB]

By far the main factor that makes for NFL parity is that #32 team in the NFL gets the top draft choice, #31 gets second draft choice, and so on.

This, plus salary caps which keep spending on a level playing field.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

By far the main factor that makes for NFL parity is that #32 team in the NFL gets the top draft choice, #31 gets second draft choice, and so on.

That and the rookies drafted don't get to "transfer" after a year to better teams.

 

[Richard7125]

No way would FSU leave without a landing spot in the SEC or BIG. IF fsu goes to the SEC then why would espn fight it? They own the media rights to both conferences, so if espn wants this to happen then the GOR is possibly a non-issue Or they have something figured out to get around it.

From ESPN's perspective, is FSU more valuable in the SEC or ACC? I would argue FSU is more valuable to ESPN remaining in the ACC. I also think it's in ESPN's best interest to keep the ACC is valuable as possible which means it's in their best interest to renegotiate the TV contract in the next few years versus letting FSU, Clemson, Miami, UNC get so disgruntled that they entertain moving to the Big10.

 

[cpf2001]

The distant third option, (bordering conspiracy theory) is that more schools are involved and FSU has been the only vocal party so far. The schools involved would have a landing spot and would be paid some marginal amount (for things other than their media value) until such time that the GOR goes away and they are compensated as full members. Eventually it all comes down to a math problem, but I don’t see how the math works yet.

I don't even think more schools have to be involved yet. They could just be testing the waters, seeing who agrees with them.

13 years is a long time if some parties to the agreement are already rumbling about it. That's why I dont' believe that nothing will happen until 2036. Yeah, that's what the contract says, but contract negotiations and enforcement also involve power and desparation, not just the words, and it's really really early for it to be starting to show seams. It's only gonna get worse.

There's probably multiple angles they could explore. As it is right now, there's a solid chance that it's a suicide pact for everyone. This is college football, I think it's fair to expect some dirty pool as a result. How miserable could FSU and a few others make the rest of the league, both for those 13 years and after? While setting up some sort of "you agree to let us go now, we'll help arrange a soft landing for your basketball programs before the revenue gap makes them less relevant too"?

 

[CEB]

I don't even think more schools have to be involved yet. They could just be testing the waters, seeing who agrees with them.

13 years is a long time if some parties to the agreement are already rumbling about it. That's why I dont' believe that nothing will happen until 2036. Yeah, that's what the contract says, but contract negotiations and enforcement also involve power and desparation, not just the words, and it's really really early for it to be starting to show seams. It's only gonna get worse.

There's probably multiple angles they could explore. As it is right now, there's a solid chance that it's a suicide pact for everyone. This is college football, I think it's fair to expect some dirty pool as a result. How miserable could FSU and a few others make the rest of the league, both for those 13 years and after? While setting up some sort of "you agree to let us go now, we'll help arrange a soft landing for your basketball programs before the revenue gap makes them less relevant too"?

You are very right. There is no way this lasts until 2036, especially not in its current form. It’s just too difficult to arrive at a buyout number with this much term left right now, so it’s testing waters or they think they have a legal angle to get out of it... or at least get to the table.

For what it’s worth, it looks like the ACC deal is currently undervalued. Even schools that aren’t bullish on their prospects of landing in the BIG / SEC might be interested in joining the push for more ESPN money. It serves all ACC members’ interest to get paid, and despite some theories circulating, I suspect ESPN would be interested in an intact ACC

 

[iceeater1969]

You are very right. There is no way this lasts until 2036, especially not in its current form. It’s just too difficult to arrive at a buyout number with this much term left right now, so it’s testing waters or they think they have a legal angle to get out of it... or at least get to the table.

For what it’s worth, it looks like the ACC deal is currently undervalued. Even schools that aren’t bullish on their prospects of landing in the BIG / SEC might be interested in joining the push for more ESPN money. It serves all ACC members’ interest to get paid, and despite some theories circulating, I suspect ESPN would be interested in an intact ACC

Fsu is complaining to tv folks = u tv folks and the acc made a deal that's allowing gt to slide by while fsu is busting ***. FSU IS asking tv folks to call out the bottom dweller gt for failure to provide quality football product due to lack of NON TV REVENUES. Fsu spending while gt coasts on tv money.
Fsu is saying to acc when the new deal is cut, forget the bottom dwellers because they are putting crappy product on tv. Some egg head schools like duke, bc, wf, gt have tougher academics and fewer courses but they don't raise more private money for better resources to be able to compete. The egg head schools - instead of spending more , are spending less!

(Without reading the tv / acc contract we don't have a way to determine if the acc represented its individual member were responsibile to put quality team on field. The acc could have made ZERO garantees for performance.).

 

[bobongo]

You are very right. There is no way this lasts until 2036, especially not in its current form. It’s just too difficult to arrive at a buyout number with this much term left right now, so it’s testing waters or they think they have a legal angle to get out of it... or at least get to the table.

For what it’s worth, it looks like the ACC deal is currently undervalued. Even schools that aren’t bullish on their prospects of landing in the BIG / SEC might be interested in joining the push for more ESPN money. It serves all ACC members’ interest to get paid, and despite some theories circulating, I suspect ESPN would be interested in an intact ACC

It won't make it all the way to 2036 but I would bet on it lasting at least until the early 2030's, which gives Tech an opportunity to enhance its standing when the time comes. We just have to hope our prospects look a lot brighter than they do now by the time the next decade rolls around.