2022 Season

[FittedJacket]

42 pictures and a 40 person roster limit ........

Pretty sure there are a few guys who at least for the beginning of the season are still rehabbing from injury.

 

[CINCYMETJACKET]

This is the 2nd year we don't play Boston. But we played ND and Louisville last year.
Is that Normal? Do we normally not get to play everyone?

I ask as my 84 year old Aunt lives in Boston and it would be great to fly up to see her and her see GT & Christian play

I think I posted this previously in the schedule build thread, but our home/road schedule seems to have followed a very predictable pattern since 2015. Coastal opponents are easy, home then road every other year. Same with Clemson in the Atlantic. Our other Atlantic opponents seem to have slightly different patterns, but predictable thus far.

Notre Dame and NC State every other year, home against each in years 1 & 2 then road against each years 3 & 4 (or vice versa, but starting with the 2015 schedule for this example...).

BC and Wake every 2 years, away/home vs one in years 1 & 2, away/home vs. the other in years 3 & 4.

Louisville and FSU similar pattern as Notre Dame and NC State, but opposite home/away as them. So away vs each in years 1 & 2, home vs each in years 3 & 4.

2021 was the outlier due to covid. The same pattern held, just with extra games. Wasn't sure what that would do to their pattern this year, but it looks like it held up. Just @NC State 2 years in a row and FSU at home 2 years in a row.

Disclaimer: The ACC has the right to change this pattern whenever they damn well please!

I think I articulated that correctly. Based on the colors in the cells, I think I started trying to project our home/road schedule back in 2019, but I can't remember that far back to be sure. Makes it a little easier to think about what road series I may want to attend from Ohio on a quick weekend road trip, particularly Pitt, ND, or Louisville.

 

[FredJacket]

The D1 Baseball podcast released along with their Top25 rankings seemed (I didn't listen end to end) to have only about 30 seconds on Ga Tech. Mentioned them in a 'summary' of the teams in 21-25 range. Aaron Fitt should have cited this forum in his comments... he seemed to be plagiarizing. He said offense is one of the best in the country; but need defense to improve and IF Tech can "put the pieces together" pitching-wise, winning the ACC would not surprise him.

D1Baseball Preseason Top 25 Rankings Podcast • D1Baseball

Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt and Mike Rooney take a deeper look at the Preseason Top 25 Rankings on this season preview podcast.

d1baseball.com

 

[GTNavyNuke]

The D1 Baseball podcast released along with their Top25 rankings seemed (I didn't listen end to end) to have only about 30 seconds on Ga Tech. Mentioned them in a 'summary' of the teams in 21-25 range. Aaron Fitt should have cited this forum in his comments... he seemed to be plagiarizing. He said offense is one of the best in the country; but need defense to improve and IF Tech can "put the pieces together" pitching-wise, winning the ACC would not surprise him.

D1Baseball Preseason Top 25 Rankings Podcast • D1Baseball

Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt and Mike Rooney take a deeper look at the Preseason Top 25 Rankings on this season preview podcast.

d1baseball.com

Here's what the stats are for what D1 Baseball has projected and what we've done. If anything, they give us better ratings than we achieve (with large variability). They certainly don't diss us.

Maybe at some time I'll look for more Baseball America predictions. My impression is that Baseball America goes more on draft talent projections while D1 Baseball goes more on past team synergy.

There isn't much else say about us other than we are an enigma. Or as was said in D1 Baseball chat yesterday :

 

[eokerholm]

Top 25 Breakdown: No. 21 Georgia Tech • D1Baseball

Georgia Tech will be one of college baseball's most explosive offensive clubs this fall, and if its exciting power arms can harness their talent, look out.

d1baseball.com

Grading The Yellow Jackets​

Just as scouts grade prospects using the 20-80 scouting scale, we use a 20-80 scale to evaluate teams in our top 25. A score of 50 in each category is average, relative to a typical NCAA tournament team; 55 is slightly above-average; 60 is above-average (plus); 70 is well above-average (plus-plus); 80 is top of the scale, historically strong. Accordingly, 45 is fringe-average or slightly below-average; 40 is below-average; 30 is well below-average; and 20 is the extreme in that direction.
Hitting: 65
Power: 70
Speed: 65
Defense: 45
Starting Pitching: 50
Bullpen: 55
Experience/Intangibles: 55

Strengths: Georgia Tech should be on the short list of candidates to be the most explosive offense in college baseball this season. This lineup is stacked with physical, experienced power hitters, and it also has a marquee speed threat in shortstop Chandler Simpson, along with three fleet-footed outfielders, allowing this club to push the action in a variety of ways. There won’t be an easy out in this lineup, and there’s plenty more firepower coming off the bench.

Outlook: Georgia Tech should be one of the most entertaining teams in the country this spring, especially if you like offense. And if you’re a fan of power arms, the Jackets have plenty to offer on that front too, with Grissom and fireballer Maxwell leading a pitching staff that has plenty of depth, albeit a lack of proven consistent starters. This team clearly has the upside to reach Omaha for the first time since 2006, and it will surely be a major factor in the ACC race.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

42 pictures and a 40 person roster limit ........

Here's the updated listing. The two I had before and who aren't on here are Grenk and McCollum. McCollum isn't a surprise to me but Grenk is. I was really looking forward to seeing Grenk pitch at some point. He had a pretty good year hitting (.264 and .328 OBP) for a Fr.

We still have to reduce by two before the season starts; as @FittedJacket said there may be some still rehabbing. My guess is medical too but won't know unless it's announced.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

And here is the Perfect Game pre-season ranking. GT #11. https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=20332

 

[bensaysitathome]

And here is the Perfect Game pre-season ranking. GT #11. https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=20332

View attachment 12019

We seem to be consistently in that 10-20 range, depending on who you ask. I can buy that.

Funny to see uga ranked above us in some polls, and not ranked here at all. It appears publications are putting different weight in the transfers coming in.

 

[FredJacket]

We seem to be consistently in that 10-20 range, depending on who you ask. I can buy that.

Funny to see uga ranked above us in some polls, and not ranked here at all. It appears publications are putting different weight in the transfers coming in.

Baseball rankings are worth very little. My theory is not near enough resources (ie "experts") to come close to being able to evaluate these teams with any rigor.

UVA is #5 in Baseball America's poll. Unranked in multiple others.

2022 College Preseason Top 25

Texas opens the 2022 season ranked No. 1 in the Baseball America Top 25.

www.baseballamerica.com

 

[78pike]

Baseball rankings are worth very little. My theory is not near enough resources (ie "experts") to come close to being able to evaluate these teams with any rigor.

UVA is #5 in Baseball America's poll. Unranked in multiple others.

2022 College Preseason Top 25

Texas opens the 2022 season ranked No. 1 in the Baseball America Top 25.

www.baseballamerica.com

And what happened to Louisville. Annually they have been a top ten team. Now nowhere to be seen in the top 25.

 

[JacketOff]

Baseball rankings are worth very little. My theory is not near enough resources (ie "experts") to come close to being able to evaluate these teams with any rigor.

UVA is #5 in Baseball America's poll. Unranked in multiple others.

2022 College Preseason Top 25

Texas opens the 2022 season ranked No. 1 in the Baseball America Top 25.

www.baseballamerica.com

IMO the randomness in the game of baseball itself means that preseason rankings will never be able to accurately predict how the season will play out. In football and basketball (especially at the college level) the team with the most talent will win most of time no matter what. That’s not necessarily the case in baseball.

Also the fact that one of your best players may only play in 1 out of every 4-5 games if he’s a pitcher. I mean missing 3-4 games in a row in any other sport would mean trouble with an injury, discipline issues, so some other factor. But with baseball it’s just what’s expected out of starting pitchers. The way the MLB draft works also plays a role, both with HS and college draftees. A kid with first round talent out of HS will probably never see a college campus, which means the ceiling of talent is a lot lower in baseball than it is is football or basketball, where they have to go at least 1 year (or 3). And for college guys, there’s virtually never any incentive to stay for your senior year if you’re a draft hopeful, so the oldest and most developed players get phased out of programs a year early. That gives mid majors a much more legitimate chance if they can develop older players or dip into jucos to compete with the bigger programs who usually have more younger guys playing.

You could pretty much write in the same 25 teams for every football preseason rankings and at least half of them will be there at the end of the year. There’s just too many variables in baseball for that to be the case.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Top 25 Breakdown: No. 21 Georgia Tech • D1Baseball

Georgia Tech will be one of college baseball's most explosive offensive clubs this fall, and if its exciting power arms can harness their talent, look out.

d1baseball.com

Grading The Yellow Jackets​

Just as scouts grade prospects using the 20-80 scouting scale, we use a 20-80 scale to evaluate teams in our top 25. A score of 50 in each category is average, relative to a typical NCAA tournament team; 55 is slightly above-average; 60 is above-average (plus); 70 is well above-average (plus-plus); 80 is top of the scale, historically strong. Accordingly, 45 is fringe-average or slightly below-average; 40 is below-average; 30 is well below-average; and 20 is the extreme in that direction.
Hitting: 65
Power: 70
Speed: 65
Defense: 45
Starting Pitching: 50
Bullpen: 55
Experience/Intangibles: 55

Strengths: Georgia Tech should be on the short list of candidates to be the most explosive offense in college baseball this season. This lineup is stacked with physical, experienced power hitters, and it also has a marquee speed threat in shortstop Chandler Simpson, along with three fleet-footed outfielders, allowing this club to push the action in a variety of ways. There won’t be an easy out in this lineup, and there’s plenty more firepower coming off the bench.

Outlook: Georgia Tech should be one of the most entertaining teams in the country this spring, especially if you like offense. And if you’re a fan of power arms, the Jackets have plenty to offer on that front too, with Grissom and fireballer Maxwell leading a pitching staff that has plenty of depth, albeit a lack of proven consistent starters. This team clearly has the upside to reach Omaha for the first time since 2006, and it will surely be a major factor in the ACC race.

It's hard to see a team which is below average in defense and pitching making it very far in the postseason; that's why last year few of us had much hope of going deep in the NCAAs last year. This year D1 Baseball above is guessing we have average pitching and below average defense. Based on past year performance, I think that is fair. I hope for better but have no OQE to support it.

I've been trying to figure out how important defense is relative to pitching. We all have anecdotes about defense losing games but how many games are influenced by defense. But is there some numerical OQE that can be developed?

My attempt was to look at last years NCAA D1 baseball data for all teams. I calculated the unearned runs per game (=total runs less earned runs) and then compared it to ERA. What I see is that the average team gives up on the order of 85% of their runs as earned and 15% as unearned. So defense is important, but maybe 1/5th of what pitching is. And offense is the other ingredient for winning games, but that is a separate discussion.

For all 286 D1 teams last year:

And more importantly for the ACC where we play most of our games. I put in the labels for the outliers and in the chart sorted by total runs per game.

 

[FredJacket]

It's hard to see a team which is below average in defense and pitching making it very far in the postseason; that's why last year few of us had much hope of going deep in the NCAAs last year. This year D1 Baseball above is guessing we have average pitching and below average defense. Based on past year performance, I think that is fair. I hope for better but have no OQE to support it.

I've been trying to figure out how important defense is relative to pitching. We all have anecdotes about defense losing games but how many games are influenced by defense. But is there some numerical OQE that can be developed?

My attempt was to look at last years NCAA D1 baseball data for all teams. I calculated the unearned runs per game (=total runs less earned runs) and then compared it to ERA. What I see is that the average team gives up on the order of 85% of their runs as earned and 15% as unearned. So defense is important, but maybe 1/5th of what pitching is. And offense is the other ingredient for winning games, but that is a separate discussion.

For all 286 D1 teams last year:
View attachment 12036

And more importantly for the ACC where we play most of our games. I put in the labels for the outliers and in the chart sorted by total runs per game.
View attachment 12035

Good stuff. I've been trying to figure out "what to make of this"

One observation... it's pretty "crazy" Ga Tech won the Coastal giving up that many runs. ND winning makes sense. How bad was UVAs offense?

But guess where UVAs final game of the year was played?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Good stuff. I've been trying to figure out "what to make of this"

One observation... it's pretty "crazy" Ga Tech won the Coastal giving up that many runs. ND winning makes sense. How bad was UVAs offense?

But guess where UVAs final game of the year was played?

Yeah, I been trying to figure it out too. Did raw stuff on Monday and then didn't have time to post till yesterday.

Snow on the ground and wonderful 28F hike. I'm more interested in the season and thinking about baseball more. Must be getting close to opening day.

Here's what I "make" of it:

• Pitching is more important in runs per game than I guessed. I was guessing about 3:1 pitching to defense in runs per game but it appears to be 5:1.
• Scoring errors is somewhat lax IMHO and there should be more errors called for plays not made. That would make defense more important, but the numbers are the numbers.
• The rise in errors per game and ERA (upward slope on D1 trend line) is reflective that better overall teams have better pitching and defense is my guess.
• Danny Hall is probably right (gasp) to value hitting so much more over defensive capability when recruiting. Nick Willhite is still one of my favorite players though. Loved his D and ability to ninja walk from the 9 hole.
• We barely won Coastal - 21-16 record is 57% win % which was the lowest of any ACC division champion in many years. Usually division champ gets over 70% in the last 5 or so years as I recall when I checked. So winning Coastal was fortunate that there wasn't a typically hotter team out there. We came in third overall in the ACC last year.
• Offense is more important in racking up regular season wins. Pitching and defense become more important in post season when playing elite teams who have pitchers and defense which can shut down your offense. I don't feel like data mining to see if that anecdotal bias is correct.
  • At some point I may do the same thing for earned runs per game and unearned runs per game we scored. Not sure if I can find the NCAA D1 data though. I would expect a strong correlation of increased earned runs and unearned runs per game.
  • Maybe there is a reason that UVa did well in post season ........ can't seem to guess why though. (tic)

 

[FredJacket]

Yeah, I been trying to figure it out too. Did raw stuff on Monday and then didn't have time to post till yesterday.

Snow on the ground and wonderful 28F hike. I'm more interested in the season and thinking about baseball more. Must be getting close to opening day.

Here's what I "make" of it:

• Pitching is more important in runs per game than I guessed. I was guessing about 3:1 pitching to defense in runs per game but it appears to be 5:1.
• Scoring errors is somewhat lax IMHO and there should be more errors called for plays not made. That would make defense more important, but the numbers are the numbers.
• The rise in errors per game and ERA (upward slope on D1 trend line) is reflective that better overall teams have better pitching and defense is my guess.
• Danny Hall is probably right (gasp) to value hitting so much more over defensive capability when recruiting. Nick Willhite is still one of my favorite players though. Loved his D and ability to ninja walk from the 9 hole.
• We barely won Coastal - 21-16 record is 57% win % which was the lowest of any ACC division champion in many years. Usually division champ gets over 70% in the last 5 or so years as I recall when I checked. So winning Coastal was fortunate that there wasn't a typically hotter team out there. We came in third overall in the ACC last year.
• Offense is more important in racking up regular season wins. Pitching and defense become more important in post season when playing elite teams who have pitchers and defense which can shut down your offense. I don't feel like data mining to see if that anecdotal bias is correct.
  • At some point I may do the same thing for earned runs per game and unearned runs per game we scored. Not sure if I can find the NCAA D1 data though. I would expect a strong correlation of increased earned runs and unearned runs per game.
  • Maybe there is a reason that UVa did well in post season ........ can't seem to guess why though. (tic)

We're gonna keep you @GTNavyNuke !!

 

[eokerholm]

Rocket man…….

 

[FredJacket]

D1 Baseball has Parada as 2nd best catcher in Coastal division.

See what I did there?

...I mean he's still projected to be pretty good. #bulletinboard

Preseason Power Rankings: Top 50 Catchers • D1Baseball

Arizona's Daniel Susac and Mississippi State's Logan Tanner headline our list of the top 50 catchers in college baseball heading into 2022.

d1baseball.com

 

[dadair6]

James Ramsey teeeted the other day about games this weekend, assuming inter squad scrimmages. Does anybody know if they’re open to the public? The tweet indicates they are.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

James Ramsey teeeted the other day about games this weekend, assuming inter squad scrimmages. Does anybody know if they’re open to the public? The tweet indicates they are.

Reports would be appreciated. We sure don't get much info otherwise.

But on the bright side, this is the first time I remember this being done. So a great step forward.

 

[eokerholm]

#BEASTmode