- Messages
- 10,056
- Location
- Williamsburg Virginia
Illegitimate chance. It all depends on how much they want and what's offered. But if drafted in first two days extremely unlikely given discussions to get to that point.
2022 MLB Draft
- Thread starter eokerholm
- Start date
Illegitimate chance. It all depends on how much they want and what's offered. But if drafted in first two days extremely unlikely given discussions to get to that point.
rodandanga
Jolly Good Fellow
- Messages
- 268
We just need the NIL collective to offer more than the draft slot amount. Sounds pretty easy? 
FittedJacket
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 514
When you reach 22.5 or 23 years of age at the draft you get a brutalized discount because of your age. Much better to sign and go in most cases. MLB loves 16 year old foreign players that are major league ready at 21 or 22. Most older players dont get offered anything close to slot value. Most seniors get small signing bonus and a bus ticket. Nothing romantic about this business.
rodandanga
Jolly Good Fellow
- Messages
- 268
Top 100 MLB Draft prospects: Keith Law's latest big board
Keith Law updates his prospect ranking ahead of the draft, plus provides expanded scouting reports on players.
theathletic.com
Parada 7, Maxwell 86, Stanford 90 as a pitcher, Samol 82
THWG
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 4,155
There will be a lot of cuts like usual
78pike
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 857
I saw on MLB Network the are showing several hours of the combine. Does anyone know who from Tech might be participating? Parada seems to have his spot pretty well nailed down so he may not be a part of it. But it seems we might have some others that could be invited.
GTJon
Jolly Good Fellow
- Messages
- 165
There's always a few freshman that committ/sign that don't wind up on campus. Of the 21 listed, I'll say 15 come. I'll guess 3 transfers. That leaves 17 spots. If all the potential draftees left (including people like Huff and Grissom) I count about 14 on the roster this year that you would feel assured would be back (I won't single out names but they're mostly pretty obvious) assuming they don't transfer. That leaves somewhere around 3-4 spots for draftees to return or those lower down the roster to make it. Yeah, so a tight list.We had 41 this year. I can identify maybe 15 that can/will be gone. That leaves 26. Meaning only room for 9 incoming.
When does the 35 go in effect? At the start of the season in February? Could you theoretically have 40 or so practicing in the fall and narrow from there? And if someone is out with a season ending injury, I assume they don't count (like Carter Daniels this past year). So a little wiggle room, but yes, I see how College Coaches hate the draft being in July from a planning standpoint.
GTJon
Jolly Good Fellow
- Messages
- 165
There was a list somewhere I saw. I think Simpson, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Borden, Maxwell, Grissom. Pretty sure Reid and Compton were our only draftable underclassmen that weren't there. Samol was the only recruit we had there.
eokerholm
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,592
35 goes is in effect in February.
Y'all are way better at analyzing this stuff and pontificating than I am.
Daniels had TJ surgery in HS. King had TJ surgery the year before. Both should be "throwable" this year.
Clines is also ramped back up from his TJ surgery in HS as we saw a few glimpses of him last year and he'll be good to go (again) this year as he's ramped up.
Finley was rumored to be drafting, but all the commentators were saying he'll be back. He'll be fully ramped up after summer.
Supposedly Dalton's injury didn't need surgery so that is HUGE and he should be back and in shape in the fall.
Do Cort and Bartnicki, Crawford, Mannely come back?
They have 1 more year with Covid. I think, if they do, they can petition for the relief to not count, given they're all "covid" eligible....so in theory they wouldn't count toward the 35.....but didn't they all graduate already? Crawford and JoMann in Graduate programs?
There is also at least 1 incoming that will have had TJ surgery so he won't count....if he makes it to campus. So he wouldn't count either.
Borden, Compton, Reid, DeLeo, Grissom and some others that haven't been on any top 100-200 lists so I'd expect them back too.
Unless they go un-drafted Free Agent.
You start to get under $150K in the 10th round....pick #309 is $149.9K
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-2022-bonus-pools-pick-values
All, especially Borden & Grissom, could really improve their slot value returning.
Borden, Compton, Reid, DeLeo are older and will pay the "age tax" if they don't perform next year but have 2 years left.
So will be interesting to see what they do.
Was very happy for Maxwell to see him shoot up the list late in the season. Regional performance was big $$$ maker for him and rightfully so. Best outing. #BeastMode
Too much talent in the portal to not go shopping.
GT's luck and ROI has been pretty good with JHM, Huffy, Timmy Barrels and Simpson not to go back and grab a few and GT needs arms and maybe a seasoned catcher.
brining in 21 freshman plus portals is really going to make things difficult,
Definitely going to be rough.
Y'all are way better at analyzing this stuff and pontificating than I am.
Daniels had TJ surgery in HS. King had TJ surgery the year before. Both should be "throwable" this year.
Clines is also ramped back up from his TJ surgery in HS as we saw a few glimpses of him last year and he'll be good to go (again) this year as he's ramped up.
Finley was rumored to be drafting, but all the commentators were saying he'll be back. He'll be fully ramped up after summer.
Supposedly Dalton's injury didn't need surgery so that is HUGE and he should be back and in shape in the fall.
Do Cort and Bartnicki, Crawford, Mannely come back?
They have 1 more year with Covid. I think, if they do, they can petition for the relief to not count, given they're all "covid" eligible....so in theory they wouldn't count toward the 35.....but didn't they all graduate already? Crawford and JoMann in Graduate programs?
There is also at least 1 incoming that will have had TJ surgery so he won't count....if he makes it to campus. So he wouldn't count either.
Borden, Compton, Reid, DeLeo, Grissom and some others that haven't been on any top 100-200 lists so I'd expect them back too.
Unless they go un-drafted Free Agent.
You start to get under $150K in the 10th round....pick #309 is $149.9K
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-2022-bonus-pools-pick-values
All, especially Borden & Grissom, could really improve their slot value returning.
Borden, Compton, Reid, DeLeo are older and will pay the "age tax" if they don't perform next year but have 2 years left.
So will be interesting to see what they do.
Was very happy for Maxwell to see him shoot up the list late in the season. Regional performance was big $$$ maker for him and rightfully so. Best outing. #BeastMode
Too much talent in the portal to not go shopping.
GT's luck and ROI has been pretty good with JHM, Huffy, Timmy Barrels and Simpson not to go back and grab a few and GT needs arms and maybe a seasoned catcher.
brining in 21 freshman plus portals is really going to make things difficult,
Definitely going to be rough.
- Messages
- 4,917
Interesting post as always, as are most here in this forum.
I am intrigued with the (appears to me) high incidence of TJ surgeries you mention. At one time, this was a rare and usually career ending procedure. Would you expect to see a similar occurrence rate on other staffs? Why is the rate so high? Is the detection of the injury better than what it was (I would expect this to be true)? More people given the surgery now that it isn't so daunting? Are pitchers more over worked now at a younger age? (This is would seem odd as pitch counts are something that was rarely if ever discussed in the not too recent past - I may be giving away my age with this remark). i appreciate any insight you or others could share on this topic.
eokerholm
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,592
Definitely a lot of over use and specialization at a younger age. Especially in the South.
Guys are throwing way harder and more than other generations and it is definitely taking a toll on their young arms.
You never saw Velo like this 10 years ago in and out of HS.
Travel ball is more prevalent and seasons longer, which puts more wear and tear on the young arms.
Some bad coaching out there.
We had a 14 year old opponent pitch 140+ pitches in one game. We were so upset and worried for the kid.
We were at a PG 18U event at 11U and watched some games in between. Here is what one of the scouts shared.
"If I have twins, separated at birth, one grew up in Texas and one grew up in Ohio. Both Pitchers. I will take the Ohio kid 10/10 as the Texas kids play too much, too long and specialize too early. They come to me overplayed and hurt. Northern kids have to take breaks due to weather and most play multiple sports."
You have to document 1st pitch of season, last pitch of season and rest periods or breaks. Seriously.
The pitch limit in HS is 110. Which is BEYOND DUMB.
No 16-18 year old needs to pitch that many.
Here is Christian's Senior year in HS and why he came in overthrown. Never recovered from the 412 pitches so early in the season and the load the remainder.
JR was Covid so forced break
Travel ball never let them get above 80 or so pitches.
HS was the worst managed pitch count.
Guys are throwing way harder and more than other generations and it is definitely taking a toll on their young arms.
You never saw Velo like this 10 years ago in and out of HS.
Travel ball is more prevalent and seasons longer, which puts more wear and tear on the young arms.
Some bad coaching out there.
We had a 14 year old opponent pitch 140+ pitches in one game. We were so upset and worried for the kid.
We were at a PG 18U event at 11U and watched some games in between. Here is what one of the scouts shared.
"If I have twins, separated at birth, one grew up in Texas and one grew up in Ohio. Both Pitchers. I will take the Ohio kid 10/10 as the Texas kids play too much, too long and specialize too early. They come to me overplayed and hurt. Northern kids have to take breaks due to weather and most play multiple sports."
You have to document 1st pitch of season, last pitch of season and rest periods or breaks. Seriously.
The pitch limit in HS is 110. Which is BEYOND DUMB.
No 16-18 year old needs to pitch that many.
Here is Christian's Senior year in HS and why he came in overthrown. Never recovered from the 412 pitches so early in the season and the load the remainder.
JR was Covid so forced break
Travel ball never let them get above 80 or so pitches.
HS was the worst managed pitch count.
FittedJacket
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 514
Remember, just because you get drafted in a certain slot doesn’t mean you get that slot’s value. So many variables when you come back to school. Like you said the “age tax“. If you look back on past drafts you can see older players getting 25k in 200k slots. Like I’be said before, tough business. Conversely, you can see high school seniors getting over slot. It’s usually excised from the older players’ slot values.
78pike
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 857
what you say is true, but there are also several instances where coming back drastically improves your draft slot if your performance improves. Fortunately at programs like Tech there is plenty of national exposure should you show out. In one year Borden went from a platoon infielder to a major threat at the plate. Another solid year at the plate along with moving from DH to a fielding position could help him immensely. Personally I think he could be a corner outfielder with his speed and strong arm. Also, I remember when Varitek spurned a high draft position to come back for his senior year. It sure didn't hurt him. I understand the "age tax" and that certainly does happen. But if you are looking at being a 10th round pick and another year bumps you up to a 4th or 5th rounder I think you take that chance. And guys at Tech, I think, also have to consider that if that extra year gets you a degree from Tech it may be worth much more than an improved draft slot. The majority of players that get drafted will never even get a sniff of the show. If they have a degree from Tech to fall back on they are much better positioned to have a successful life.
JacketOff
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 2,951
A 10th rounder coming back for a senior year and going in rounds 3-9 is literally worst case scenario money wise. Those are prime spots for teams to take seniors drastically under slot value to save money in their pools. A junior who goes in the 10th will probably get ~$150k. A senior who isn’t a first rounder or a high second rounder will struggle to get more than $50k. A lot of those guys sign for $25k or less. Coming back for a senior year could cost you $100k or more, and the ability to make more money as a senior than a junior is pretty unlikely. Best case scenario most of the time is that you get the same offer as a senior that you did as a junior.
As far as the degree goes, MLB pays for you to go back to school and finish your degree once your baseball career is over. So for guys who aren’t getting 100% of their tuition covered via baseball and/or athletic money will save more money on school by leaving and coming back to finish later. There is virtually no reason to ever come back for a senior year in baseball unless your family is already loaded. No matter how much you increase your draft stock in your senior year you lose all leverage, and teams know that. They’ll draft you and offer you $20k and your choices are either accept it or hang up the spikes.
For reference, Jake Mangum went back to Miss. State because he wanted to be the SEC’s all time hits leader in 2019. He set the record and was drafted in the 4th round. His slot value was $487,000. He signed for $20,000. Was $460k worth his senior year of college? Only he can tell you that. But there’s a hell of a lot of people that could do a lot of good things with $460k.
eokerholm
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,592
The only thing they're paying is "age tax" given they all have 2 years of eligibility left, thanks to Covid and the NCAA. They're baseball "juniors" in their senior year of college.
Wouldn't they still have the school "leverage" year of school remaining?
I would definitely put a degree, in-hand, from GT up there worth more than $500K, easily.
Especially when these guys are at an age and muscle memory of studying, time management, age/life and bills/kids not in the way yet, etc.
The MLB does offer the degree, as do most baseball programs (if drafted come back for free), but not a lot of guys take advantage of that time or getting that degree afterwards, especially those that don't make it through to the show and were stuck in the minors, making squat for years. They also have to go back to that school and might not live nearby or in that part of the country.
Varitek commuted from Austin to finish his degree and certainly had the means to do so with ease. He valued thad degree, talked about it, and worked to get it.
Wouldn't they still have the school "leverage" year of school remaining?
I would definitely put a degree, in-hand, from GT up there worth more than $500K, easily.
Especially when these guys are at an age and muscle memory of studying, time management, age/life and bills/kids not in the way yet, etc.
The MLB does offer the degree, as do most baseball programs (if drafted come back for free), but not a lot of guys take advantage of that time or getting that degree afterwards, especially those that don't make it through to the show and were stuck in the minors, making squat for years. They also have to go back to that school and might not live nearby or in that part of the country.
Varitek commuted from Austin to finish his degree and certainly had the means to do so with ease. He valued thad degree, talked about it, and worked to get it.
FredJacket
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 6,238
- Location
- Fredericksburg, Virginia
If you can detach yourself from the individual player (I "almost" can)... this is all good for Ga Tech baseball. Tough decisions & hard conversions with each player... but lots to "sell" to get great players (HS or transfers) to the Flats.
On the other hand, if you told me in 12 months... Roedig and/or Bartnicki had made themselves top MLB picks.... I'd sign up for that with the quickness.
Bottom line... I want Ga Tech to win.
I hope every player coming through is given every opportunity to maximize his stock.
On the other hand, if you told me in 12 months... Roedig and/or Bartnicki had made themselves top MLB picks.... I'd sign up for that with the quickness.
Bottom line... I want Ga Tech to win.
I hope every player coming through is given every opportunity to maximize his stock.
FittedJacket
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 514
You can finish your degree at Tech with room board and tuition being paid 100 percent by the MLB continuing Education Fund.