2022-23 Season

Lone Star Jacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
285
Pains me to state the facts...

Its April 15th...
Dead last in the division.
12th place in ACC overall

Is failing to qualify for the ACC Tourney actually in play?
If that’s what it takes for Batt to take the necessary action, I’m all for it. He needs to call CDH into his office Monday and tell him he either takes the graceful way out and “retires” at the end of the season or he will be fired.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
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10,075
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Williamsburg Virginia
....... Is failing to qualify for the ACC Tourney actually in play?

Yes.

Warren Nolan predicts we win two more ACC games this year. 1@Pitt and 1 versus UVa. https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/team-predict-schedule?team=Georgia-Tech

Also, taken over dead last in ACC pitching and now second to last in fielding. But hey, we can caveman at 2nd in hitting. https://theacc.com/stats.aspx?path=baseball&year=2023

Inshallah, if that's what if takes to get Hall retired.
 

GTRambler

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,635
I have no knowledge of anything that’s going on inside the clubhouse. But in looking on from the outside during the past several years, it’s apparent that the Borrell experiment with the pitching staff has failed.

This is Borrell’s fourth season as the team’s pitching coach. It is clear as day that he is not the answer.
 

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
Messages
12,014
You know what Coach Hall’s nickname is OAS? Coach Fire or CFDH(not allowed to call for Coach firings, so they use the initials). I’m beginning to wonder if he doesn’t retire or fire CDB, what his fate might BEE?

We need a win today, to avoid the broom.
 

gtbeak

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
539
What a bad weekend so far. We have quickly gone from discussing our chances at making the NCAA tournament to now discussing our chances of making the ACC tournament. We are now in the 12th and final spot, 1.5 games ahead of Clemson.
 

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
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6,290
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Fredericksburg, Virginia
Some facts on our RPI. You tell me if this seems like an accurate "measure" of a team.

At 21-16, the winning % is .568.

Tech plays 33 of its 55 games at home. Not sure how that compares to other P5 teams. I assume same as most "southern" teams.

Our adjusted winning % for RPI purposes is .486 (16.8-17.8)

The heavy home schedule hurts... especially if you happen to have a schedule strength that is not on the significantly difficult side of the scale. The weighted factors are out of whack. Not enough credit for home wins & too much of a penalty for home losses.

Rant over... & doesn't change fact Ga Tech isn't post-season worthy unless an epic run is forthcoming... like 9-3 for remaining conference schedule. ...then RPI won't matter. We'll be the "hot" ACC team.
 

GTNavyNuke

Helluva Engineer
Featured Member
Messages
10,075
Location
Williamsburg Virginia
Some facts on our RPI. You tell me if this seems like an accurate "measure" of a team.

At 21-16, the winning % is .568.

Tech plays 33 of its 55 games at home. Not sure how that compares to other P5 teams. I assume same as most "southern" teams.

Our adjusted winning % for RPI purposes is .486 (16.8-17.8)

The heavy home schedule hurts... especially if you happen to have a schedule strength that is not on the significantly difficult side of the scale. The weighted factors are out of whack. Not enough credit for home wins & too much of a penalty for home losses.

Rant over... & doesn't change fact Ga Tech isn't post-season worthy unless an epic run is forthcoming... like 9-3 for remaining conference schedule. ...then RPI won't matter. We'll be the "hot" ACC team.

RPI is an accurate measure of our team IMHO. We've beaten up on low ranked teams at home and lost to better (Quadrant 1) teams. The math is accurate. Sucks that we haven't done better when it counts. https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/team-sheet?team=Georgia-Tech

I hope we get better real damn quick. We have the chance given the quality opponents and road games, we just have to win.

1682033754992.png

RPI is
 

leatherneckjacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,150
Location
Atlanta, GA
RPI is an accurate measure of our team IMHO. We've beaten up on low ranked teams at home and lost to better (Quadrant 1) teams. The math is accurate. Sucks that we haven't done better when it counts. https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/team-sheet?team=Georgia-Tech

I hope we get better real damn quick. We have the chance given the quality opponents and road games, we just have to win.

View attachment 14310
RPI is
13-16 vs the top 150 is just plain awful.
 

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,290
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
RPI is an accurate measure of our team IMHO. We've beaten up on low ranked teams at home and lost to better (Quadrant 1) teams. The math is accurate. Sucks that we haven't done better when it counts. https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/team-sheet?team=Georgia-Tech

I hope we get better real damn quick. We have the chance given the quality opponents and road games, we just have to win.

View attachment 14310
RPI is
Ok... rant not over...

We're almost 40 games into season. Tennessee lost to Tenn Tech the other night & dropped from 16th to somewhere in the 30s. They absorb as part of RPI (75% of it)... Tenn Tech's & all their opponents poor winning percentages. The weighting factors could easily be adjusted to "improve" it.
 

gtbeak

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
539
Ok... rant not over...

We're almost 40 games into season. Tennessee lost to Tenn Tech the other night & dropped from 16th to somewhere in the 30s. They absorb as part of RPI (75% of it)... Tenn Tech's & all their opponents poor winning percentages. The weighting factors could easily be adjusted to "improve" it.
Or maybe the RPI is just ranking Tennessee correctly now. Tennessee has had a disappointing season so far. At best they are the #7 team in the SEC, and you only arrive at that number if you give them credit for what they should be on paper. There is no way Tennessee has performed as the #16 in the country....somewhere in the 30's may be being kind to them.

I do agree that, especially in baseball, the weighting given to home v road is too heavy. I might could buy 0.8, or maybe even 0.75, but 0.7 is too much. I also hope that the selection committee gives itself some room for common sense to enter into the equation. Georgia is up to #28, and they just beat Arkansas, so they could possibly be a top 25 team in the morning. That with a conference record of 5-11 and a 4-9 record against top 25 teams. Mississippi St is at #26 right now while being 5-10 in conference and 4-9 against top 25 teams. Both those Bulldog teams are getting credit for playing and losing to good teams, while simultaneously not playing any putrid teams with near 300 RPIs like we did (actually Mississippi St did play one game against Grambling). I can't stand the "good loss" strategy that we see often in college sports. I hope (and expect) that the committee will see this if it remains the case come Memorial Day weekend and not reward teams playing below .400 ball in conference games.
 

bensaysitathome

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
678
Ok... rant not over...

We're almost 40 games into season. Tennessee lost to Tenn Tech the other night & dropped from 16th to somewhere in the 30s. They absorb as part of RPI (75% of it)... Tenn Tech's & all their opponents poor winning percentages. The weighting factors could easily be adjusted to "improve" it.
The problem is you're looking at relative rankings, not absolutes. Sure, 16 to 30-something seems bad, but if 20-40 are all really closely packed, that's not necessarily unreasonable or poor reflection of reality.
 

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
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Fredericksburg, Virginia
The problem is you're looking at relative rankings, not absolutes. Sure, 16 to 30-something seems bad, but if 20-40 are all really closely packed, that's not necessarily unreasonable or poor reflection of reality.
Good point. I agree.

My problem with it is more simple. The way RPI is structured... Tenn (& any team) is penalized too much for a single loss to a bad team.

Last year... teams literally found ways to cancel games against weak opponents late in season to avoid the RPI drop (win or lose). THAT is a problem.
 

GTNavyNuke

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10,075
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Williamsburg Virginia
Or maybe the RPI is just ranking Tennessee correctly now. Tennessee has had a disappointing season so far. At best they are the #7 team in the SEC, and you only arrive at that number if you give them credit for what they should be on paper. There is no way Tennessee has performed as the #16 in the country....somewhere in the 30's may be being kind to them.

I do agree that, especially in baseball, the weighting given to home v road is too heavy. I might could buy 0.8, or maybe even 0.75, but 0.7 is too much. I also hope that the selection committee gives itself some room for common sense to enter into the equation. Georgia is up to #28, and they just beat Arkansas, so they could possibly be a top 25 team in the morning. That with a conference record of 5-11 and a 4-9 record against top 25 teams. Mississippi St is at #26 right now while being 5-10 in conference and 4-9 against top 25 teams. Both those Bulldog teams are getting credit for playing and losing to good teams, while simultaneously not playing any putrid teams with near 300 RPIs like we did (actually Mississippi St did play one game against Grambling). I can't stand the "good loss" strategy that we see often in college sports. I hope (and expect) that the committee will see this if it remains the case come Memorial Day weekend and not reward teams playing below .400 ball in conference games.

I agree that the home win / loss weighting is way too much. I don't know how they came up with the .7/1.3 years ago; it would seem that the percentage should be related to the team winning % of two equivalent teams playing. So another way to look at it is that the home team is 65% (+ 1.3/ (.7+1.3)) likely to win and the away team only 35% (=.7/2). So I don't think home field advantage to my guess. I'd think more like 60% which would be 1.2 and .8. But to find two equivalent teams.

Then I check MLB and it's only 53%! https://www.baseball-reference.com/...:text=While in all games, the,470 on the road.

Then I found this that gives me perfect confirmation bias where college baseball home team is 60.26% likely to win (old data). https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/91970875.pdf

1682075971567.png


Gotta go to work, but an enduring question is why do the Brits seem to have some of the best betting related data?
 

bensaysitathome

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
678
One step at a time, but....
1) Overtake Pitt or NC State
2) Pack up for ACC Tournament
3) Win ACC Championship
4) Pack up for Regional (at USCe... obviously)

...that's the current most likely path to NCAA tournament. Unfortunately, pretty far-fetched.

...another "option" is 8-1 (maybe 7-2) over these final 3 ACC series.
While we're dreaming...

8-1 gets us a winning record. 7-2 gets us right at .500 in conference.

A couple weeks ago I said we had 6 losses to give over the final 5 series. We proceeded to lose 5 straight conference games. While I like to think Pitt and Duke are beatable, at this point who knows.
 
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