2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament - Atlanta Regional

[slugboy]

Don’t mention bunting in here, you’ll get slaughtered. That’s the devil’s work.

Yikes! Too late

 

[Lagrangejacket]

No piling on from me as you've brought up some very good points and posed some good questions, but it's difficult for me to accept that all of the perceived problems experienced in post season play would be remedied with a coaching change. For those calling for a coaching change, what are the criteria that the new coach must possess? Is it the offensive philosophy that has to change? Do we need to recruit pitchers that aren't susceptible to injury? Do we recruit a different pool of 5-tool guys in hopes that MLB won't scoop them up with signing bonuses that most of us would have gladly jumped at when we were their age. If we can find a guy that can guarantee success while working within the constraints provided, then I'm all in. Lets pull the trigger, and lets look forward to next year.

At some point though, the players have to play the game, and do what needs to be done to win the last game in tournament play.

As to what has to change, I don't know - it seems to be several things that vary every year. Certainly we seem to rack up pitching injuries at a high rate. But the pitching was good enough this weekend to win. This year it seems to be lack of a killer instinct. No sweeps. Not fielding a routine grounder or fly ball in big moments in the regionals. Bats going cold against mediocre-at-best pitchers in the postseason or with runners on base. Maybe it's the players, but we've had a lot of really damn good teams do nothing in the postseason over the past 13 years. If it's not the players, well, maybe it's the coach. And as who to replace him with- if the new guy posts a losing season and fails to make regionals 60% of the time, well, it'll be no different from the last 5 years with the guy we have.

And I still haven't seen an answer for "what will it take for you to think we need a change at the top?" If the past 5 years didn't do it, what will?

 

[MWBATL]

@Lagrangejacket I haven't tried to answer your question because I don't know the answer.

Before this season, I was pretty much in the Fire Danny Hall camp, although I was resolved to the fact that his history as well as the clear and demonstrated support of his alumni in MLB (with $$$) would keep him here at least until his sons completed their time playing here. This season he did show me something. He seemed to try different approaches and be more flexible. When Serratos (who was the anointed heir apparent at 3rd base) wasn't working out, he went to Jackson Webb, whose defense steadied our infield. I screamed about his bullpen management, but by mid-season, that seemed to be under control and he was right more often than I was. Our record was darned good. Even more than that, this team seemed to have a resilience that prior teams seemed to lack. Blow a game one day, and they would come back the next day and gut out a win. Then we got the injuries. We still showed a ton of guts, but at that stage we had to start relying on our offense to carry us. They did enough for us to limp home with some solid wins. So...this season counts for something, even with the post-season, which I don't seem as upset about as you are.

Now, if we revert to poor form next year, then yeah...I'll be back on the Fire Danny Hall bus ("what have you done for me lately?"). But, I am hopeful that Ramsey's influence will lift the program and we'll get better.

One other thing to keep in mind.....experience. This was the very first NCAA appearance for everybody who plays for the Yellow Jackets. Auburn had won three Regionals in a row (iirc). I thought at times we played like that...we seemed either nervous (mistakes) or over-anxious(over-throwing pitches when we had a big pitch to make) or trying too hard at the plate. Auburn looked more comfortable, more experienced, and I think that was the difference at the end of the day.

Let's see what next year brings.

 

[FredJacket]

I would replace him with Ramsey, but I think CDH will retire once his sons are out of the program. Even if he doesn't, I think that we have our coach in waiting.

I agree with THWG about Ramsey. I think CDH hangs around with his sons, and in the mean time we get more data points about Ramsey.

I like Ramsey too... but I think TStan is going to have a problem. Assuming CDH does step down at the end of this contract (when Colin is done), that is only 2 more seasons, I think.

So... its 2021 & Georgia Tech head baseball coach position opens up. I'd say you are not going out on a limb to say it would be an attractive opening. With no other information, don't you think it would be quite unprecedented for that opening to go to a guy (Ramsey) with less than 5 years of college coaching experience... all as an assistant.

The more conventional hire would be a guy with proven success already as a head coach at a less prestigious D1 program. There will be plenty of interest in the GT job.

What I hate about the scenario is you'll lose Ramsey... most likely.

 

[ibeattetris]

When we have a lead and we're looking for another run or two, why don't we see more bunting a player over or other small ball tactics? Is it that you don't have time to get good at small ball baseball and long ball baseball?

Don’t mention bunting in here, you’ll get slaughtered. That’s the devil’s work.

Don't worry I won't slaughter you =)

Bunting has been less in vogue because in the long run, bunting reduces your max expected run per inning as opposed to not bunting. Of course, this is only true given a large sample, and the variance of baseball means small samples will vary outcomes widely.

Here is an example table from 2005-2008 and 2011-2012: http://www.boydsworld.com/data/ert.html

Expected total runs
2005-2008
Outs 0 1 2
Empty 0.72 0.38 0.14
1st 1.19 0.71 0.30
2nd 1.52 0.91 0.42
1st and 2nd 1.94 1.21 0.58
3rd 1.76 1.18 0.48
1st and 3rd 2.17 1.43 0.64
2nd and 3rd 2.39 1.61 0.68
Loaded 2.74 1.85 0.91

2011-2012
Outs 0 1 2
Empty 0.63 0.32 0.12
1st 1.07 0.63 0.26
2nd 1.39 0.82 0.38
1st and 2nd 1.79 1.10 0.52
3rd 1.67 1.14 0.45
1st and 3rd 2.06 1.36 0.61
2nd and 3rd 2.30 1.56 0.68
Loaded 2.69 1.79 0.89

Percentage of scoring at least one run
2005-2008
Outs 0 1 2
Empty 35% 20% 09%
1st 52% 34% 17%
2nd 71% 49% 27%
1st and 2nd 72% 51% 29%
3rd 87% 71% 32%
1st and 3rd 89% 70% 34%
2nd and 3rd 89% 73% 33%
Loaded 89% 71% 39%

2011-2012
Outs 0 1 2
Empty 32% 18% 07%
1st 49% 32% 15%
2nd 70% 47% 25%
1st and 2nd 71% 49% 27%
3rd 89% 73% 32%
1st and 3rd 89% 70% 34%
2nd and 3rd 89% 73% 32%
Loaded 90% 72% 39%


Here is an article from 2009 examining this question as well: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/10/904571/examining-division-i-college

So to summarize, if your goal is to score one or more runs, you have a 49% chance with a runner on first with no outs, and you have a 47% chance with a runner on second with one out. So for one single at bat, you are only really dealing with a 2% chance, so it isn't that big of a deal. Over a 50 game season, if you bunt every time there is a runner on first with no outs, you are effectively reducing your overall runs per inning by nearly 0.2 per bunt.

This is data across all teams, so it is just a guideline. Individual player batting averages and chance of extra base hit will skew these numbers as well. Bunting with a pitcher in the mlb with a 0.011 avg is different than bunting with Mike Trout.

 

[FredJacket]

@Lagrangejacket ... while I tend to agree more with those countering your points. There is nothing wrong with the questions you're raising. Good discussion.

 

[senoiajacket]

I like Ramsey too... but I think TStan is going to have a problem. Assuming CDH does step down at the end of this contract (when Colin is done), that is only 2 more seasons, I think.

So... its 2021 & Georgia Tech head baseball coach position opens up. I'd say you are not going out on a limb to say it would be an attractive opening. With no other information, don't you think it would be quite unprecedented for that opening to go to a guy (Ramsey) with less than 5 years of college coaching experience... all as an assistant.

The more conventional hire would be a guy with proven success already as a head coach at a less prestigious D1 program. There will be plenty of interest in the GT job.

What I hate about the scenario is you'll lose Ramsey... most likely.

Based on just what I have seen and perceive this year, I would be happy taking my chances on Ramsey.

Also, might as well get it out that it bothers me that people indicate CDH will be here "until his sons are done". I have not seen favoritism, although I can get really upset with Collin's play at times, but the mere insinuation that CDH is still here because he wants to coach his sons implies to me that he is not here (solely) for the good of the GT baseball program. I guess I am being a bit idealistic, but it bothers me.

I threw out the argument a couple of years ago when Collin was a Freshman and Carter was healthy that I thought at a minimum that the "coach's son argument" could cost us recruits. After all, who is coming to play in an outfield where potentially two slots are already taken by coach's son? We have 2 "ligit" outfielders on our roster that have been recruited at the same time or after Collin ...... Radcliff & Wilhite. We have Murray that was recruited the same year as Carter. I don't know, what do yall think. Has it had an effect?

 

[FredJacket]

Based on just what I have seen and perceive this year, I would be happy taking my chances on Ramsey.

Also, might as well get it out that it bothers me that people indicate CDH will be here "until his sons are done". I have not seen favoritism, although I can get really upset with Collin's play at times, but the mere insinuation that CDH is still here because he wants to coach his sons implies to me that he is not here (solely) for the good of the GT baseball program. I guess I am being a bit idealistic, but it bothers me.

I threw out the argument a couple of years ago when Collin was a Freshman and Carter was healthy that I thought at a minimum that the "coach's son argument" could cost us recruits. After all, who is coming to play in an outfield where potentially two slots are already taken by coach's son? We have 2 "ligit" outfielders on our roster that have been recruited at the same time or after Collin ...... Radcliff & Wilhite. We have Murray that was recruited the same year as Carter. I don't know, what do yall think. Has it had an effect?

I hope I didn't imply I thought Hall favored his sons over anything as it relates to Tech. ALL things can be true...CDH still has the fire to coach & win. Has Tech's best interest in all he does. Carter & Colin play because they earned it. I believe all that is true.

I would not begin to try to get in heads of recruits on what may attract them (or not) to the baseball program.

 

[GTJon]

I just don't think you can take too much of a knee-jerk reaction about what to change in the program based on one weekend. Up until this year, the overall trajectory of the program seemed very down over the past few years. It was clearly much improved this year, regardless of the postseason.

It's frustrating when the bad things always happen to us, but it's true that baseball is game of inches. If Williams literally swings just a couple of inches lower in the 9th inning, that's fly ball final out to the outfield and we are in all likelihood planning our Super Regional and that was with significant injuries to our pitching staff.

Why did we lose the last game? I don't think there's much need to overanalyze. Our players were at the park for 12 hours yesterday, had a tiring 4 hour game in the heat, and just couldn't quite get their offense on track in those conditions. If we were playing a team we were vastly superior to, we might could've overcome it. But make no mistake, Auburn was a pretty evenly matched team to us. They were ahead of us in the RPI for most of the year and still only finished a few spots behind us. Over the past few years, we've flamed out as 2 seeds, but we weren't nearly as good as the Florida and Vanderbilt teams we were losing to. If you take it year by year, the other most frustrating years were the ones we blew to Alabama and the year we lost the 1 vs 4 game after our top starter got hurt and threw off our pitching all weekend.

 

[NW GA JACKET]

Regardless of your personal opinions or beliefs, it is asinine to think that CDH doesn’t have GT baseball and all that is related to it above and beyond anything else. Colin is like any other player, he has earned his spot, and has some very big plays for us this year, both in the field and at the plate.Listen to CDH pre and post game interviews, or better yet get your *** in the seats and watch live, and you will see the passion, don’t just show up and complain, like most fans around me did all weekend , and I use the word fan very sarcastically. These are college guys , not pros, which by the way there is a stat for errors, walks , hr allowed , and all the other stuff for them too. It’s baseball!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

....... This is data across all teams, so it is just a guideline. Individual player batting averages and chance of extra base hit will skew these numbers as well. Bunting with a pitcher in the mlb with a 0.011 avg is different than bunting with Mike Trout.

This is the key. Guldberg or Nick bunting with their speed and power makes all the sense in the world for an in-field hit. McCann or English bunting (they are slow) doesn't make sense almost any circumstance.

 

[ibeattetris]

This is the key. Guldberg or Nick bunting with their speed and power makes all the sense in the world for an in-field hit. McCann or English bunting (they are slow) doesn't make sense almost any circumstance.

Yep. Also things like percentage chance of strike outs or chance of double play (a double play being the single worst event that could take place with one on no outs). There are definitely spots where bunting can still be utilized and advantageous, but I was trying to highlight why on average bunting is not seen to be the correct call.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I mean CDH was the ACC Coach of the Year. He’ll be here at least a couple of years more if he wants to.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Don’t mention bunting in here, you’ll get slaughtered. That’s the devil’s work.

Like punting on 4th & 1. No bueno.

 

[Peter Patsis]

Mods, please sign him up for a lifetime membership in the beer of the month club. Brilliant post.

Come on man. That is pure speculation. If maddux and smoltz were gone who is to say the braves do win without them. The yankees have lost Serevino #1 slot. Paxton #2 slot, CC Sabathia #4 slot and they are in first place playing well over .600 ball. A lot of factors go into it. Depth, luck, etc. But yeah losing #1, and #2 in College sucks. And just cause I haven't posted doesn't mean I am just a silent participant not a end of the season type.. No fan of Danny Hall but not really feeling like bashing him this time. Hindsight is 20/20 and a guy hits a walk off 3 run home run on a 2 strike count. You just realize after that the gods are not with us tonight. The good news for the baseball program and Danny Hall is it is not like Basketball, top players still want to come in spite of our other ACC foes who are having more success in the postseason over the last years than us.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Come on man. That is pure speculation. If maddux and smoltz were gone who is to say the braves do win without them. The yankees have lost Serevino #1 slot. Paxton #2 slot, CC Sabathia #4 slot and they are in first place playing well over .600 ball. A lot of factors go into it. Depth, luck, etc. But yeah losing #1, and #2 in College sucks. And just cause I haven't posted doesn't mean I am just a silent participant not a end of the season type.. No fan of Danny Hall but not really feeling like bashing him this time. Hindsight is 20/20 and a guy hits a walk off 3 run home run on a 2 strike count. You just realize after that the gods are not with us tonight. The good news for the baseball program and Danny Hall is it is not like Basketball, top players still want to come in spite of our other ACC foes who are having more success in the postseason over the last years than us.

I'm pretty sure that was his point.

 

[MWBATL]

I'm pretty sure that was his point.

That, and to not blame individual players.....

 

[MWBATL]

I hadn't thought about Ramsey getting hired to replace Martin at FSU. That would upset me greatly, as I do attribute our turn-around to him by implication (he came and we got better, ergo...)

I have no idea if that is a correct assumption or not, but it sure feels right. And if we lose him after one season....well, darn is all I can say (on this message board, anyway).

I'd hire him in a heartbeat to replace hall when the time came...

 

[GTRambler]

I hadn't thought about Ramsey getting hired to replace Martin at FSU. That would upset me greatly, as I do attribute our turn-around to him by implication (he came and we got better, ergo...)

I have no idea if that is a correct assumption or not, but it sure feels right. And if we lose him after one season....well, darn is all I can say (on this message board, anyway).

I'd hire him in a heartbeat to replace hall when the time came...

If Ramsey is interested in the FSU job, he will let his alma mater know.

https://floridastate.rivals.com/new...-replace-legendary-baseball-coach-mike-martin

 

[THWG]

If Ramsey is interested in the FSU job, he will let his alma mater know.

https://floridastate.rivals.com/new...-replace-legendary-baseball-coach-mike-martin

I'm pretty sure his son will get it.