2018 ACC Baseball

[senoiajacket]

Well... for the record, I really am interested in yours (and other's) state of mind...whether temporary or permanent. I did not have a problem with what you wrote; but was it 'incomplete' and intrigued me. I sensed frustration (obviously)... but wondered exactly what that frustration meant for you? This team is like that annoying friend that usually generously buys all (or most) of the beer when you're together. You really have to hold back punching him in the face or just walking away and looking for other things to do... but that free beer sure is tasty and hits the spot sometimes. ...and maybe he'll be less annoying "this time".

For me, the "it" that doesn't matter in the context of what MWBATL wrote, is that it doesn't matter which pool we are in, I see no chance of us winning the ACCT. I give us a 10-15% chance of getting out of pool play. For that to happen CT & X both would have to pitch brilliantly. That has happened before this season so it could happen again. We haven't strung 4 games together where we were good in all phases all year. No expectation that it will start now.

Its just a shame and a wonder to have as much talent as we have and yet be where we are.

 

[MWBATL]

@senoiajacket has pretty much nailed it. I just think our only chance for any real success is to get into the NCAA’s, and our only chance to get there is to win the ACC, and while we could conceivably get out of pool play with complete game wins by CT and X, then..we’re done

 

[GTNavyNuke]

@senoiajacket has pretty much nailed it. I just think our only chance for any real success is to get into the NCAA’s, and our only chance to get there is to win the ACC, and while we could conceivably get out of pool play with complete game wins by CT and X, then..we’re done

D1 baseball has 6 ACC teams going to the NCAAs.

So I see three very unlikely ways to get to the NCAAs for us:
1) Win the ACC Tourney
2) Win 6 of the next 7 and get the RPI into the low 30's/upper 20's.
3) Related to 2) Make it into the top 6 ACC teams with a collapse of say FSU and us winning a bunch.

But consistent with your "it doesn't matter comment" in another post, I agree it doesn't. We suck on the road and against top 50 RPI teams.

 

[THWG]

@senoiajacket has pretty much nailed it. I just think our only chance for any real success is to get into the NCAA’s, and our only chance to get there is to win the ACC, and while we could conceivably get out of pool play with complete game wins by CT and X, then..we’re done

Maybe Carpenter can start.

 

[MWBATL]

Maybe Carpenter can start.

You seriously think Hall will try something novel and different like that? No way!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

D1 Baseball has a very glowing article about how Duke is putting it all together as the season goes on. (Behind paywall.) We'll see how Duke does this weekend with UNC @ Duke.

They have hitting coming on. Starting pitching isn't their strength, but have 5 very good relievers... And defense is great with a .982 fielding %.

They are looking to easily have their best season in Duke baseball history. And their coach isn't happy saying that they haven't played their best baseball yet and put it all together.

Anyway, here's a freewheeling free article from D1. They are the best I've found .... https://d1baseball.com/columns/off-top-head-week-13/

Here's what they say about us:
– GEORGIA TECH
Numbers:
27-22, 11-13 ACC, RPI No. 48, ISR No. 59

Pluses:
The Techsters have played an unusually tough non-conference slate. Which is good because I’ve ragged on them for a weak non-conference schedule plenty of times over the years. No problem this year. Just over half of their wins have come against Top 100 competition. With a roadie at Virginia and a home weekend vs. Duke, their RPI should improve before the ACC tourney starts.

Minuses:
The Jackets are good. They’ve got a lot of quality wins on their ledger. But they do not have a winning series against an ACC team with a winning mark. They have also only won a grand total of five games away from Russ Chandler Stadium. Yuck. Remember, North Carolina had a sparkling RPI (No. 25) two years ago but didn’t get into the Big Dance due to a losing conference mark.

What They Must Do:
The Boyd Nation “Needs Report” shows the Jackets can get into the Top 32 by getting two or three road wins. That means a series win at Virginia is nearly a must. Just sneaking into the Top 45 may not be enough, especially if their losing record in ACC play sticks around .

 

[RoosterJacket]

D1 Baseball has a very glowing article about how Duke is putting it all together as the season goes on. (Behind paywall.) We'll see how Duke does this weekend with UNC @ Duke.

They have hitting coming on. Starting pitching isn't their strength, but have 5 very good relievers... And defense is great with a .982 fielding %.

They are looking to easily have their best season in Duke baseball history. And their coach isn't happy saying that they haven't played their best baseball yet and put it all together.

Anyway, here's a freewheeling free article from D1. They are the best I've found .... https://d1baseball.com/columns/off-top-head-week-13/

Here's what they say about us:
– GEORGIA TECH
Numbers:
27-22, 11-13 ACC, RPI No. 48, ISR No. 59

Pluses:
The Techsters have played an unusually tough non-conference slate. Which is good because I’ve ragged on them for a weak non-conference schedule plenty of times over the years. No problem this year. Just over half of their wins have come against Top 100 competition. With a roadie at Virginia and a home weekend vs. Duke, their RPI should improve before the ACC tourney starts.

Minuses:
The Jackets are good. They’ve got a lot of quality wins on their ledger. But they do not have a winning series against an ACC team with a winning mark. They have also only won a grand total of five games away from Russ Chandler Stadium. Yuck. Remember, North Carolina had a sparkling RPI (No. 25) two years ago but didn’t get into the Big Dance due to a losing conference mark.

What They Must Do:
The Boyd Nation “Needs Report” shows the Jackets can get into the Top 32 by getting two or three road wins. That means a series win at Virginia is nearly a must. Just sneaking into the Top 45 may not be enough, especially if their losing record in ACC play sticks around .

Thanks for posting this. It’s funny to me him writing about our non-conference slate. It’s basically the same exact teams as it has been the last few years. The only difference is that UGA and Auburn are pretty good teams now.

 

[65Jacket]

We could lose our remaining ACC games. We play rotten on the road and Duke is peaking. As has become the norm, we have managed to lose a lot of games we could have won.

 

[FredJacket]

Thanks for posting this. It’s funny to me him writing about our non-conference slate. It’s basically the same exact teams as it has been the last few years. The only difference is that UGA and Auburn are pretty good teams now.

It makes sense and our SOS reflects it too... #11 today. The rise of UGA and Auburn this year is big (played 5 games against those 2 teams). In addition, Minnesota and UConn are top 20 RPI teams...having great seasons.

 

[FredJacket]

Week 10 (of 11) of ACC play:
GT (11-13) @ UVA (9-15) - GO JACKETS! Win THREE!
MIA (11-13) @ VT (8-16) - Want Miami to lose
UNC (18-6) @ DUKE (15-8) - Should be good one. Results of no consequence to GT.. except if Duke wins (or sweeps), Ga Tech stands to gain more when we beat Duke NEXT weekend.
LOU (12-12) @ PITT (11-13) - Want Pitt to lose... but I just don't like the Big East...so difficult to pull for Louisville.
WF (11-13) @ NCST (15-9) - Want WF to lose.

 

[Lagrangejacket]

We could lose our remaining ACC games. We play rotten on the road and Duke is peaking. As has become the norm, we have managed to lose a lot of games we could have won.

I see what you did there.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Week 10 (of 11) of ACC play:
GT (11-13) @ UVA (9-15) - GO JACKETS! Win THREE!
MIA (11-13) @ VT (8-16) - Want Miami to lose
UNC (18-6) @ DUKE (15-8) - Should be good one. Results of no consequence to GT.. except if Duke wins (or sweeps), Ga Tech stands to gain more when we beat Duke NEXT weekend.
LOU (12-12) @ PITT (11-13) - Want Pitt to lose... but I just don't like the Big East...so difficult to pull for Louisville.
WF (11-13) @ NCST (15-9) - Want WF to lose.

Agree, except .........
I always want Duke to lose. In this case, they get swept by UNC and us, they end up behind us.
I'd like for Lou to lose to help us make top 6 if we do our part.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Updated standings after Saturday (5/12) games. Here are updates on the series’ being played this weekend—
Duke has won both vs UNC (may as well have a Duke sweep so if we beat them next week would help our RPI a little more)
Louisville has won both over Pitt (ugh, probably want another Pitt L to keep them below us)
NCST has won both over WF (want another WF loss)
GT and UVA have split
(Non-conf interesting tidbit...Austin Peay and Clemson have split first two games)

1) Clem 19-8
2) UNC 18-8
3) Duke 17-8
4) NCST 17-9
5) FSU 14-12 (tiebreaker over LOU)
6) LOU 14-12
7) MIA 13-13
8) GT 12-14
9) ND 12-15
10) WF 11-15
10) Pitt 11-15
12) UVA 10-16
————— Bottom 2 don’t make ACCT
VT 8-18
BC 7-20

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Updated standings after Saturday (5/12) games. Here are updates on the series’ being played this weekend—
Duke has won both vs UNC (may as well have a Duke sweep so if we beat them next week would help our RPI a little more)
Louisville has won both over Pitt (ugh, probably want another Pitt L to keep them below us)
NCST has won both over WF (want another WF loss)
GT and UVA have split
(Non-conf interesting tidbit...Austin Peay and Clemson have split first two games)

1) Clem 19-8
2) UNC 18-8
3) Duke 17-8
4) NCST 17-9
5) FSU 14-12 (tiebreaker over LOU)
6) LOU 14-12
7) MIA 13-13
8) GT 12-14
9) ND 12-15
10) WF 11-15
10) Pitt 11-15
12) UVA 10-16
————— Bottom 2 don’t make ACCT
VT 8-18
BC 7-20

Hope you are overseas posting at 2AM

Anyway, even if we lose our next 4 we are guaranteed to make the ACC Tourney (low bar in that only 2 are eliminated). BC can't get to our win total and we have the tiebreaker over VT.

That leaves the other be point of a regular season way into the NCAAs. I think if we get in top 6 ACC we can get in. Which is why I was rooting for LOU to lose. But given Duke just took the second from UNC, the chances of us sweeping Duke look about as good as our chances of winning the ACC tourney.

The FSU game against Duke on April 15 was "CCD, inclement weather". I guess that means cancelled since there is no reschedule shown. If we and FSU had same number of wins and FSU played the same number of games (one less loss) they would be ahead......

 

[RoosterJacket]

Update after Sunday 5/13 games-
Duke won the series 2-1 over UNC
Louisville swept Pitt
NCST swept WF

1) Clem 19-8
1) UNC 19-8
3) NCST 18-9
4) Duke 17-9
5) LOU 15-12
6) FSU 14-12
7) MIA 13-13
8) GT 12-14
9) ND 12-15
10) WF 11-16
10) Pitt 11-16
12) UVA 10-16
————— Bottom 2 don’t make ACCT
VT 8-18
BC 7-20

 

[FredJacket]

Officially clinched ACCT berth.

 

[FredJacket]

Update after Sunday 5/13 games-
Duke won the series 2-1 over UNC
Louisville swept Pitt
NCST swept WF

1) Clem 19-8
1) UNC 19-8
3) NCST 18-9
4) Duke 17-9
5) LOU 15-12
6) FSU 14-12
7) MIA 13-13
8) GT 12-14
9) ND 12-15
10) WF 11-16
10) Pitt 11-16
12) UVA 10-16
————— Bottom 2 don’t make ACCT
VT 8-18
BC 7-20

If GT and ND end up in a "2-way" tie... ND will gain the higher seed by virtue of their single win over Clemson. (if I understand tiebreakers correctly). Should ND and GT be tied and a 3rd team is included... it could be different. As we have discussed earlier... no one wants to lose their way to a lower seed... but being tied for 8th and "earning" the #9 seed may not be a bad thing.

ACCT Pools as of today (again.. if I know my tiebreaker stuff correctly):

#1UNC, #8GT, #12UVA

#2CLEM, #7MIA, #11PITT

#3NCST, #6FSU, #10WF
(as of today, WF has tiebreak over Pitt today.. but if they are still tied at end...Pitt just needs to win 1 game over Clemson this weekend to gain that tiebreaker)

#4DUKE, #5LOU, #9ND

Seems the Top4 are pretty much locked in. GT sweeps Duke and LOU sweeps ND, then LOU/Duke will flip-flop (but same pool).

Lots of shuffling likely in the 8-12 slots.

 

[RoosterJacket]

If GT and ND end up in a "2-way" tie... ND will gain the higher seed by virtue of their single win over Clemson. (if I understand tiebreakers correctly). Should ND and GT be tied and a 3rd team is included... it could be different. As we have discussed earlier... no one wants to lose their way to a lower seed... but being tied for 8th and "earning" the #9 seed may not be a bad thing.

ACCT Pools as of today (again.. if I know my tiebreaker stuff correctly):

#1UNC, #8GT, #12UVA

#2CLEM, #7MIA, #11PITT

#3NCST, #6FSU, #10WF
(as of today, WF has tiebreak over Pitt today.. but if they are still tied at end...Pitt just needs to win 1 game over Clemson this weekend to gain that tiebreaker)

#4DUKE, #5LOU, #9ND

Seems the Top4 are pretty much locked in. GT sweeps Duke and LOU sweeps ND, then LOU/Duke will flip-flop (but same pool).

Lots of shuffling likely in the 8-12 slots.

For some reason, I think I’d prefer to be in a pool either with UNC or Clemson over ones with NCST/FSU and Duke/Lou.

 

[FredJacket]

For some reason, I think I’d prefer to be in a pool either with UNC or Clemson over ones with NCST/FSU and Duke/Lou.

I hear you. If you want to really overthink it... (like I do ) ...of the choices, I'd rather be in pool with Clemson, Duke, UNC/NCST (in that order). Tournament in Durham... games involving UNC and NCST will very likely be set in primetime and draw VERY large "home" crowds. Not sure how a very good Duke team will draw... it's new territory for that. But.. I'd assume a decent Blue Devil contingent. The rest of the conference simply does not pull a ton of fans to Durham...particularly for the pool play games (Tues-Fri).

Bottom line (for me)... I'd rather be in pool with Clemson over the other 3 top seeds.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Standings heading into Friday 5/18-

1) UNC 20-8
2) Clem 20-8
3) NCST 18-10
4) Duke 17-10
5) LOU 16-12
6) FSU 15-12
7) MIA 15-13
8) GT 13-15
9) ND 12-16
10) WF 12-16
11) Pitt 11-17
12) UVA 11-17
————— Bottom 2 don’t make ACCT
VT and BC officially out

I believe the standings above are correct using the tiebreakers for any teams that are tied. Clemson and UNC tiebreaker comes down to record vs highest seeded common opponent—they both played NCST. UNC swept NCST, Clemson got swept by NCST. The other two tiebreakers used are easy since they both had head to head games (ND/WF and Pitt/UVA).