2017 ACC Baseball

[GTNavyNuke]

Ok, first a bit of trolling about how the SEC is better than the ACC:
"In the marquee series of the weekend, Florida won a 1-0 duel against Miami behind a brilliant performance from first-team preseason All-American Alex Faedo (8.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K), who threw 119 pitches in a beastly performance. Jesse Lepore (6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K) was outstanding in a losing effort for the Hurricanes, and Jonathan India’s RBI single in the third proved decisive thanks to Faedo’s brilliance."

Seriously, 119 pitches and a shutout to be pulled with an out to go what an effort ........

Before yesterday's games, the ACC improved mid-week to .625 (35-21) (and the SEC was .700 (42-18)). For the ACC, a lot less than our .738 overall last year.

Answering my question:

...... Are these numbers recalculated every week for every game of the season? So at the end of week 2, the week 1 games would be recalculated based on where the teams were at the end of week 2? If so, it doesn't matter when you lose....... it always sucks.

I believe the numbers are continuously recalculated so for the purpose of calculating rpi, it doesn't matter when you win or lose. That's from http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/faq.html#2
"How are the ISR's computed?
The basic idea is an iterative one. Begin with all teams set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each game played, give each team the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the game -- 25 in this case. Total all of a team's results, divide by the number of games played, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each team for two consecutive cycles."

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Miami has a big series in Gainesville this weekend. Need Coach Morris to put together something "good" for the ACC.

Sorry... I got to thinking/wondering. I'm allowed (as a fan...not a player or coach) to get ahead of myself. Our schedule is very easy (relatively) leading up to our ACC opener at Miami. Last year, we were unbeaten (12-0) when ACC play began. We played a series in Tallahassee and were swept by FSU....even when managing to score 9 runs & establishing a big lead in one of the games. It's likely we'll enter the Miami series with a similar record... having not been too tested (I'm thinking high leverage pitching/defense situations, specifically).

What do you think about this formula? Should we try (assuming we have some control) to have a more challenging opponent/series in the "pre-conference" portion of our schedule? I don't know. I like the idea of building confidence; but entering such a key Coastal series untested bothers me too.

Pros and cons for either obviously. I can't add anything to what you said and "it is what it is".

Our rpi sucks being 5-0 and 114th but that's because we've played the 214th SOS. http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/rpi

I'd like a tougher schedule, something in the 100-150 SOS range. Definitely not in the <50 SOS with the perennially pitching development we need to do. But the >200 SOS range is too easy to me.

We'll have enough challenge soon enough and winning those games is critical to the season regardless of our early season SOS!

 

[FredJacket]

When I see stories or stat lines where college pitchers get complete games & pitch counts up around or over 100... I can't help but note how "different" Tech's staff is. Not saying it's a bad thing; but there seems to be no chance one of our 2017 pitchers will sniff a 8+ inning/90 pitch outing.

I'm willing to bet no starter will see the 8th inning all season... even if he has it going like the UF dude did last night.

 

[RoosterJacket]

When I see stories or stat lines where college pitchers get complete games & pitch counts up around or over 100... I can't help but note how "different" Tech's staff is. Not saying it's a bad thing; but there seems to be no chance one of our 2017 pitchers will sniff a 8+ inning/90 pitch outing.

I'm willing to bet no starter will see the 8th inning all season... even if he has it going like the UF dude did last night.

Curry only went 5 yesterday, but threw 90-95 pitches.

 

[awbuzz]

Curry only went 5 yesterday, but threw 90-95 pitches.

Guess CDH had him go 5 so he'd be credited with the W.

 

[Squints]

When I see stories or stat lines where college pitchers get complete games & pitch counts up around or over 100... I can't help but note how "different" Tech's staff is. Not saying it's a bad thing; but there seems to be no chance one of our 2017 pitchers will sniff a 8+ inning/90 pitch outing.

I'm willing to bet no starter will see the 8th inning all season... even if he has it going like the UF dude did last night.

Well Faedo is a potential top-5 pick in the draft and our starters are all underclassmen.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

NM

 

[augustabuzz]

When I see stories or stat lines where college pitchers get complete games & pitch counts up around or over 100... I can't help but note how "different" Tech's staff is. Not saying it's a bad thing; but there seems to be no chance one of our 2017 pitchers will sniff a 8+ inning/90 pitch outing.

I'm willing to bet no starter will see the 8th inning all season... even if he has it going like the UF dude did last night.

I would be very surprised to see it before April.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

...... Answering my question:

I believe the numbers are continuously recalculated so for the purpose of calculating rpi, it doesn't matter when you win or lose. That's from http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/faq.html#2
"How are the ISR's computed?
The basic idea is an iterative one. Begin with all teams set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each game played, give each team the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the game -- 25 in this case. Total all of a team's results, divide by the number of games played, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each team for two consecutive cycles."

Well, our rpi dropped from 114 yesterday to 151 today with the win yesterday. That's because ALL the teams we played lost yesterday. And none have a winning record, combined record is 6-23. http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2017/schedule/Georgia-Tech

 

[65Jacket]

In reference to lack of out pitchers going 8 innings, check out how many Major League pitchers go 8 innings.

 

[FredJacket]

In reference to lack of out pitchers going 8 innings, check out how many Major League pitchers go 8 innings.

As the guy who brought it up, agree 100%. Having pitchers go that deep in games isn't indicative of anything that important (i.e. more wins) necessarily.

Just noting this team seems to be put together such that we'll need to regularly rely on 3-5 pitchers to win most games.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

In reference to lack of out pitchers going 8 innings, check out how many Major League pitchers go 8 innings.

I don't do MLB, so maybe you can help me out here.

What is the average hoped for start for a MLB pitcher 5 or 6 innings? Then a middle reliever (2-3 innings) and then a closer if needed?

I think that would be a great model for us too ..... we need the guys who can go the 6 innings at ~90 pitches.

 

[FredJacket]

I don't do MLB, so maybe you can help me out here.

What is the average hoped for start for a MLB pitcher 5 or 6 innings? Then a middle reliever (2-3 innings) and then a closer if needed?

I think that would be a great model for us too ..... we need the guys who can go the 6 innings at ~90 pitches.

"Quality Start" is minimum 6 complete innings while giving up no more than 3 earned runs. While pitching is managed slightly differently in NL than AL... generally, MLB teams these days seem to follow a plan where starter should go 7inn, followed by the 8th inn "setup guy", then the 9th inn "closer". Of course, this gets disrupted by situations & matchups. And pitch counts matter. Most starters are expected to get up into the 90s on pitch count.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_start

 

[Squints]

I don't do MLB, so maybe you can help me out here.

What is the average hoped for start for a MLB pitcher 5 or 6 innings? Then a middle reliever (2-3 innings) and then a closer if needed?

I think that would be a great model for us too ..... we need the guys who can go the 6 innings at ~90 pitches.

It's a school of thought that's becoming more prevalent in MLB that you should avoid having your starting pitcher avoid going through a line-up more than twice if you can and absolutely do not let them go through a line-up for a fourth time unless the score isn't close or the pitcher is dominant. The numbers show that hitters perform far better the more they see the pitcher so get him out as soon as you're comfortably able. It's why the role and value of relievers has been increasing the past few seasons.

It's fairly rare to have a consistent middle reliever go for 2-3 innings in the regular season but that's not the postseason (i.e. the way the Indians used Andrew Miller in this past year). But the good teams are making an effort to stack effective late inning relievers now and there's just more of them in general.

"Quality Start" is minimum 6 complete innings while giving up no more than 3 earned runs. While pitching is managed slightly differently in NL than AL... generally, MLB teams these days seem to follow a plan where starter should go 7inn, followed by the 8th inn "setup guy", then the 9th inn "closer". Of course, this gets disrupted by situations & matchups. And pitch counts matter. Most starters are expected to get up into the 90s on pitch count.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_start

Just throwing it out there but Quality Starts isn't a great stat. It's very arbitrary. You can have a full season of 32 quality starts and you could still be a below average pitcher by a lot of measures. And expecting starters to go 7 innings is probably a little generous these days.

 

[FredJacket]

Still early (small sample); but here are some numbers to check out. I have not done a deep look across the conference; but looking at Ga Tech, just note the delta between our offensive numbers v our pitching numbers (no surprise)... but ouch. Hope the link works...

http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary

Ok... sorry not sure how to make link take you right to what I'm viewing. You will need to click on 'Baseball' (ignore the date column) --> Division1 --> 2016-17 ---> thru games 2/27/2017 --> Conference 'tab' ---> Atlantic Coast (from list) ---> Atlantic Coast - All Teams (from list)

 

[FredJacket]

ACC action starts this weekend. Glad it is here.

In my limited 'research' or scoreboard watching...Miami has to be the biggest surprise so far with a 4-6 start to season. Lost 3 to UF; but 3 more to Rutgers (x1) and Dartmouth (x2). Perhaps we're catching them at a good time while they are still trying to figure out how to score runs.

Louisville (no surprise) has come out of the gates strong and appear to be for real. Personally, as a fan of ACC baseball in general... Louisville is where I draw the line. I don't want to see them succeed in anything. It's annoying the ACC Baseball Tournament will be a HOME tourney for them. I'll try to not stew about that for 3 more months... but will be difficult.

Clemson served themselves well this past weekend with a series win over South Carolina.
UVA also appears to be their typical solid selves.
UNC can pitch... lost a string of low scoring games over the weekend.

Every team is tied for 1st (and last) in the conference as of today... will be interesting to see the season progress.

 

[FredJacket]

As the opening weekend for conference play approaches. Some early season predictions:
1) Louisville finishes with best conference record - #1 seed in May at the ACC Tourney
2) UVA wins the Coastal - #2 seed
3) UNC, FSU likely #3 and #4 seeds with Clem, NCST, & GT (hopefully) in mix.
4) ND, BC - the 2 teams failing to make the tournament
5) Ga Tech manages to finish conference play at 17-13 (total guess) in the upper half of the conference.

 

[FredJacket]

Weekend #1 Matchups:
Ga Tech @ Miami - GO YELLOW JACKETS!!!
Pitt @ Louisville - Pitt outmatched & on road
BC @ FSU - BC outmatched & on road
VT @ Duke - one of these teams emerges from 1st weekend with at least 2 wins. Both in Coastal...don't want Tech to be looking "up" (in the standings) at either team after this weekend.
NCST @ WF - Wake seems to be a solid team. They are 10-4 after beating defending Nat'l Champs (Coastal Carolina) last night.
UVA @ UNC - Probably the 'best' matchup/series of the weekend.
ND @ Clemson - ND outmatched & on road

 

[MWBATL]

I am guessing that WF-NCSU and the UVA-NC series are both very competitive......WF took one game from USC (west) earlier this year as well (but then dropped the next two), so they are decent/pretty good....not great....NCSU has dropped some stinkers in an early season schedule that was fairly weak.....NC has pitching and UVA has a program we all respect......so those should be two good series.

Agree with your assessments on the other series...although if both VPI&SU and Duke could find a way to lose 2 of 3 in the same series, well, let's just say they both deserve to lose 2 of 3 and leave it at that.

 

[FredJacket]

Bad weather forecast for Sunday has already forced schedule changes for the 3 series in NC. UVA@UNC; NCST@WF; & VT@DU will all play doubleheaders on Sat.