2015 Warmest Year on Record

MWBATL

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6,589
SnidelyWhiplash said:
Well the unfortunate part of your question is that we have a decade of significantly flattening carbon emissions, including a massive 6.5% drop last year (14% in the US), and the answer we're being told is to not expect even a 0.01 degree temperature change from where we are compared to where we would have been, and don't even expect carbon dioxide concentration to reflect that trend at all either.
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Dinosaur Era Had 5 Times Today's CO2​

 
bobongo

bobongo

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MWBATL said:
Just curious......

Since according to the archeological record, the earth has had higher levels of CO2 long long ago (way before man was ever around), are you of the belief that mankind can somehow control the planet's climate?
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What you're missing is that it isn't that levels of CO2 and temperatures are increasing, it's that the rate of increase is beyond mankind's ability to adapt to it.
 

Deleted member 2897

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bobongo said:
What you're missing is that it isn't that levels of CO2 and temperatures are increasing, it's that the rate of increase is beyond mankind's ability to adapt to it.
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I'd like to hear more about this thought. We've increased about 2 degrees F in the last 100 years. We've been able to adapt to it.

(With caveats we absolutely should try and reduce our pollution and with the caveats that the temperature record is a bit bastardized due to the raw readings having been adjusted a couple times. Also with another caveat that we're only about 1/2 a degree higher than we were several hundred years ago.

If we adapted to the last 2 degrees, who is to say that in 100 years if we increase another 2 degrees F that we can't adapt to that?

Personally, I'd argue that living in an ice age would be infinitely more difficult and destructive to human beings.
 
bobongo

bobongo

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SnidelyWhiplash said:
I'd like to hear more about this thought. We've increased about 2 degrees F in the last 100 years. We've been able to adapt to it.

(With caveats we absolutely should try and reduce our pollution and with the caveats that the temperature record is a bit bastardized due to the raw readings having been adjusted a couple times. Also with another caveat that we're only about 1/2 a degree higher than we were several hundred years ago.

If we adapted to the last 2 degrees, who is to say that in 100 years if we increase another 2 degrees F that we can't adapt to that?

Personally, I'd argue that living in an ice age would be infinitely more difficult and destructive to human beings.
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Have you ever heard of the tipping point?

Climate Tipping Points Are Closer Than We Think, Scientists Warn - Inside Climate News

Tell you what, bwelbo. I'm tired of this. Just about every scientist worth his salt is trying to alert us to this looming calamity, and you people just keep whistling in the dark, pretending that all the evidence around you is just nothing to see. The only way you'll ever understand how wrong you've been is when it's too late. Burn more coal - it's the energy of the future. This train is accelerating faster and faster, and you just whistle louder and louder.
 

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bobongo said:
Have you ever heard of the tipping point?

Climate Tipping Points Are Closer Than We Think, Scientists Warn - Inside Climate News

Tell you what, bwelbo. I'm tired of this. Just about every scientist worth his salt is trying to alert us to this looming calamity, and you people just keep whistling in the dark, pretending that all the evidence around you is just nothing to see. The only way you'll ever understand how wrong you've been is when it's too late. Burn more coal - it's the energy of the future. This train is accelerating faster and faster, and you just whistle louder and louder.
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How about you reply rationally instead of pitching a fit. We have been warned about the tipping point for 30 years. The tipping point is where we supposedly lose control. What control do we have of anything now?

I'm advocating that we work as hard as reasonably possible to reduce pollution. Accusing me of advocating burning coal or whatever else is just silly emotional crap. All I'm saying is that we can't predict what temperatures will do, which we are reminded of year after year when our models continue to fail us. Don't bring us this 'every scientist worth his salt'. The road is littered with fabulous scientists like Judith Curry who get thrown to the road side...not for disagreeing with climate science consensus, but merely by pushing back against its alarmism.
 
bobongo

bobongo

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SnidelyWhiplash said:
How about you reply rationally instead of pitching a fit. We have been warned about the tipping point for 30 years.
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And that's a good thing, because the warnings did come in time had we heeded them. Actually, I think we might be beyond the tipping point already. As has been stated before, even if we become a carbon neutral earth right this minute, the melting and the carbon releases will continue. Sea levels will rise, famines will ensue. You don't realize it, but it may already be too late to stave off the real global horror that is coming. I'm not going to argue with you further because you aren't listening. Every time you're shown to be wrong, you change the subject. It's your modus operandi. Go ahead - give me your famous Last Word. You can read it twenty years from now and see how it sounds then.
 

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bobongo said:
And that's a good thing, because the warnings did come in time had we heeded them. Actually, I think we might be beyond the tipping point already. As has been stated before, even if we become a carbon neutral earth right this minute, the melting and the carbon releases will continue. Sea levels will rise, famines will ensue. You don't realize it, but it may already be too late to stave off the real global horror that is coming. I'm not going to argue with you further because you aren't listening. Every time you're shown to be wrong, you change the subject. It's your modus operandi. Go ahead - give me your famous Last Word. You can read it twenty years from now and see how it sounds then.
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I'm not arguing with you, we're having a conversation. Not sure why everything has to be so confrontational with you.

With regards to all the times I've been shown to be wrong, I thought we were having a discussion. I don't recall you pointing out errors that I've been making. I don't want to be posting stupidity on this board - please show me where I've been wrong and I'll try and clean it up.

On a side note, sea level has been rising since the last ice age. Many places (like where I live) are subsisting. Both will continue largely regardless of what we do. A temperature 1 degree different than it would have been or a sea level 6 inches different than what it would have been 300 years from now if we make hugely massive changes to our way of life would be immaterial.
 

Deleted member 2897

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SnidelyWhiplash said:
I'm not arguing with you, we're having a conversation. Not sure why everything has to be so confrontational with you.

With regards to all the times I've been shown to be wrong, I thought we were having a discussion. I don't recall you pointing out errors that I've been making. I don't want to be posting stupidity on this board - please show me where I've been wrong and I'll try and clean it up.

On a side note, sea level has been rising since the last ice age. Many places (like where I live) are subsisting. Both will continue largely regardless of what we do. A temperature 1 degree different than it would have been or a sea level 6 inches different than what it would have been 300 years from now if we make hugely massive changes to our way of life would be immaterial.
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To quote you: crickets.
 
GTBandman

GTBandman

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Rising CO2 doesn’t cause famines. It increases plant (aka food) growth - greenhouses are literally made to grow plants. Not saying where plants grow couldn’t adjust, or human population may overgrow the ability to feed itself.
 

MWBATL

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bobongo said:
What you're missing is that it isn't that levels of CO2 and temperatures are increasing, it's that the rate of increase is beyond mankind's ability to adapt to it.
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No, what you’re missing is that if the CO2 levels can rise that much WITHOUT any aid from mankind, to the point where there is NO ice at the poles, I don’t think it will matter much how slowly that change occurs. It is hubris to think mankind can manage climate change. The Earth has experienced 5 extinction events in its history. Only one is attributable to a meteor. You think we can stop the next one? Seriously?
 

MWBATL

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6,589
bobongo said:
And that's a good thing, because the warnings did come in time had we heeded them. Actually, I think we might be beyond the tipping point already. As has been stated before, even if we become a carbon neutral earth right this minute, the melting and the carbon releases will continue. Sea levels will rise, famines will ensue. You don't realize it, but it may already be too late to stave off the real global horror that is coming. I'm not going to argue with you further because you aren't listening. Every time you're shown to be wrong, you change the subject. It's your modus operandi. Go ahead - give me your famous Last Word. You can read it twenty years from now and see how it sounds then.
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How about Obama’s climate change guy?
How a Physicist Became a Climate Truth Teller: @HolmanJenkins interviews Steven Koonin
 
Lotta Booze

Lotta Booze

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MWBATL said:
No, what you’re missing is that if the CO2 levels can rise that much WITHOUT any aid from mankind, to the point where there is NO ice at the poles, I don’t think it will matter much how slowly that change occurs. It is hubris to think mankind can manage climate change. The Earth has experienced 5 extinction events in its history. Only one is attributable to a meteor. You think we can stop the next one? Seriously?
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If the CO2 levels are currently rising without the aid from mankind then what do you attribute it to? From what I've read they've been able to explain pervious warmings with volcanic eruptions or positron to the sun but those don't apply currently.
 

MWBATL

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Lotta Juice said:
If the CO2 levels are currently rising without the aid from mankind then what do you attribute it to? From what I've read they've been able to explain pervious warmings with volcanic eruptions or positron to the sun but those don't apply currently.
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I don't think I am being clear in trying to make my point. Let me try again. I am NOT trying to argue that mankind is not affecting current rise in CO2 levels. I AM arguing that there have always been very severe climate shifts in our planet's history, including extinction level events, and that there is no indication that ...even if we learn to stop adding to the problem with our over-population...mankind cannot stop it.

Our best strategy has ALWAYS been in learning how to "role with the punches" and not to try to spend literally trillions to stop something that inevitably will happen with or without our contribution. If you really want to spend that kind of money, spend it on the space program so our entire species isn't dependent on one planet's fortunes.

“I’ve been building models and watching others build models for 45 years,” he says. Climate models “are not to the standard you would trust your life to or even your trillions of dollars to.” Younger scientists in particular lose sight of the difference between reality and simulation: “They have grown up with the models. They don’t have the kind of mathematical or physical intuition you get when you have to do things by pencil and paper.”

All this you can hear from climate modelers themselves, and from scientists nearer the “consensus” than Mr. Koonin is. Yet the caveats seem to fall away when plans to spend trillions of dollars are bruited.

From deeply examining the world’s energy system, he also became convinced that the real climate crisis was a crisis of political and scientific candor. He went to his boss and said, “John, the world isn’t going to be able to reduce emissions enough to make much difference.”
-Steven Koonin, who was chief scientist of the Obama Energy Department.

From the WSJ article on his upcoming book: "Any reader would benefit from its deft, lucid tour of climate science, the best I’ve seen. His rigorous parsing of the evidence will have you questioning the political class’s compulsion to manufacture certainty where certainty doesn’t exist. You will come to doubt the usefulness of centurylong forecasts claiming to know how 1% shifts in variables will affect a global climate that we don’t understand with anything resembling 1% precision."

It would appear that not all scientists believe we are at (or past) a tipping point...nor that we are even at a point where we should commit that kind of spending to a Green New Deal. Please don't ascribe to the religious zealotry of the environmental left.
 
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