Supersizethatorder-mutt
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Key line from a very good video I will post later --- "Yes, there is an increase in damage done by weather, but there's not an increasing in damaging weather."
2015 Warmest Year on Record
- Thread starter cyptomcat
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Yep, just think about what real estate values have done over the last 25 years along the coast (or pretty much anywhere). Then think about how many homes there are too. The same exact storm 25 years later would do 10x as much damage.
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I hope you are right. Snidely & I live in the bullseye for these Atlantic storms.
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If you mean $$$ damage, I agree 100%. I guess the number of structures as well, but NC has begun making it harder to build on the Outer Banks. The mess at Ocracoke last year was a real awakening for many.
Supersizethatorder-mutt
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Three very interesting videos from climateclips.com, with various scientists discussing, in this case, the fact that climate change has been around for millenia, so this is nothing new
rumble.com
rumble.com
rumble.com
Climate Change is not unusual - Part 1 of 3
This is a short video clip from climateclips.com in which narrating scientist describes how climate change has been around for millinea, and it is not man-made
rumble.com
Climate change is not unusual, part 2 of 3
This is the second of three short videos from climateclips.com, in which another scientist speaks about the non-unusual phenomenon of climate change through the millenia.
rumble.com
Climate Change is not unusual, part 3 of 3
The third of three short videos from climateclips.com, in which a scientist discusses some of the typical phenomena of climate change on earth through the millenia
rumble.com
MWBATL
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Moreover, hurricane strikes aren't really up when compared to the longer term records, as best I can tell
That chart stops in 2004, and strikes have been higher in the last two decades, for sure, but the busiest times was actually back in the 1870-1900 stretch. (NB-that chart measures hurricane strikes...that is, the number which struck the US...NOT total hurricane activity).
U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade
www.nhc.noaa.gov
That chart stops in 2004, and strikes have been higher in the last two decades, for sure, but the busiest times was actually back in the 1870-1900 stretch. (NB-that chart measures hurricane strikes...that is, the number which struck the US...NOT total hurricane activity).
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Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfall Frequency and Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks
Abstract Continental United States (CONUS) hurricane-related inflation-adjusted damage has increased significantly since 1900. However, since 1900 neither observed CONUS landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity shows significant trends, including the devastating 2017 season. Two large-scale...
If you scroll down past the damage charts, you'll see charts for both total hurricane landfalls and total major hurricane landfalls. Each has a long term trendline, which you'll see decreases over time. This ends in 2017. The long term averages (which are very choppy due to the smaller numbers) are 2 total hurricane landfalls per year with 1 major.
2018 was average, with 2 total landfalls, 1 being a major hurricane:
2018 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia
2019 had barely a category 1 at 75mph/Barry and that was it.
2019 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia
2020 had 5 hurricane landfalls and 2 major hurricane landfalls.
2020 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia
2018 was average, 2019 was below average, 2020 was above average. So the last 3 years missing from this chart add up together to be about average.
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Here we go naming storms again based on questionable data. Apparently Tropical Storm Danny is now 40mph winds. 4th named storm now, and just like last year a bunch of predominantly overly glorified summer storms. I live directly in the northwest quadrant of the storm - in other words the worst part, as it is passing south of us. 40mph winds plus its moving 15mph west = 55mph if you're just north of center. We will see. So far we haven't gotten any wind and haven't had a single gust over 20mph. (Naming criteria is supposed to be sustained winds too.)
If you go look at a bunch of NOAA's weather stations, you can see nothing but 10mph - 25mph wind recordings. This is their own data.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov
If you go look at a bunch of NOAA's weather stations, you can see nothing but 10mph - 25mph wind recordings. This is their own data.
National Data Buoy Center
The National Data Buoy Center's home page. The premier source of meteorological and oceanographic measurements for the marine environment.
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NOAA now says 45mph. Plus 15mph forward motion equals 60mph. NOAA buoys in the area still showing 20mph sustained winds LOL. Leaves are barely moving where I am LOL.
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You're in N Charleston?
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- the general metro area closer to the coast.
LibertyTurns
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@SnidelyWhiplash Shiver me timbers Snidely, NHC reporting you got an 11% chance of TSF winds at Beaufort in the next 12 hrs. Batten down them hatches as Danny boy prepares to rip you a new one.
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Yep, 45mph my ***. Their own equipment barely got to half of that.
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At 5 PM the NHC recorded 45 MPH at 32.3N, 80.1W. That's from their own equipment and posted on their website. It may not be 45 MPH north of Charleston.
The rules for naming storms have not changed in my adult life. A tropical depression gets a name when it becomes a tropical storm and keeps the name for its lifetime. It becomes a tropical storm when sustained (for one minute) wind reaches 39 mph. It becomes a hurricane when the sustained wind becomes 73 mph. If a tropical depression has sustained winds (for ten minutes) of 35 mph it becomes a tropical storm.
The rules for naming storms have not changed in my adult life. A tropical depression gets a name when it becomes a tropical storm and keeps the name for its lifetime. It becomes a tropical storm when sustained (for one minute) wind reaches 39 mph. It becomes a hurricane when the sustained wind becomes 73 mph. If a tropical depression has sustained winds (for ten minutes) of 35 mph it becomes a tropical storm.
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They can't prove it. Go look at as many of those buoys offshore as you want - I did. The maximum sustained winds I found on any single buoy was 27mph. I looked at as many as I could find. Up and down the coast on shore and offshore. As I type this I am looking out the windows. The leaves aren't even rustling at all.
If you go here, it shows buoys and the storm location and track. There is a buoy right in the center of the current position - current sustained winds of 18mph. It also has a history of its data all day long. Maximum sustained winds all day long on that buoy was 23mph.
National Data Buoy Center
The National Data Buoy Center's home page. The premier source of meteorological and oceanographic measurements for the marine environment.
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A tropical storm is no laughing matter on the water. It can be very dangerous. @SnidelyWhiplash & I both live in high risk storm areas. That said 45 mph on the ocean is not going to be 45 mph inland. I am not sure what the problem is. The NHC is not making up numbers and reporting them as fact. Why would they do that? We depend on their forecasts to prepare and they do a really good job at forecasting and tracking storms.
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Some people might be thinking of the Weather Channel’s “Winter Storm Pablo” and named storms like that. Those aren’t official—TWC just named them for “ratings”.
The only other difference I can think of is starting to use Greek letters for hurricanes, but that’s not a thing in 2021.
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45mph on the ocean isn’t 45mph on the ocean either - none of their own buoys read anywhere near that. Perhaps they are cheating measuring wind speed up higher by the plane and not at the surface. Why would they do that? Follow the money.
MWBATL
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I am confused as to why you guys are having this debate in any event. It certainly appears from the historical record that there are not long term trends of increased hurricane activity (unless you choose cut-off points to try to make points...but that's not science). So...who cares about named storms? What am I missing here? I feel dumb.....
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I see your point. The naming of storms indicates a storm has reached tropical storm status at the NHC. More names = more storms that reach that level. While not a direct relationship to climate change, it is one of the indicators, like 118 degree days in Portland, Oregon.
www.nasa.gov
This chart is interesting in a scary way. It does not include 2020.
2020 Tied for Warmest Year on Record, NASA Analysis Shows - NASA
Earth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA.
www.nasa.gov
This chart is interesting in a scary way. It does not include 2020.