2015 Warmest Year on Record

Deleted member 2897

Guest
Whiskey_Clear said:
For real. Why are they even continuing to study new aspects...the science is settled.

But wait! Now that we have learned something new anyway....it’s time to stop these evil waves from crashing into the shores of the world. Not only must we redouble our efforts to cut emissions!!....we must also spend trillions to mitigate waves!!

#calmseasinitiative (stop the waves!!)
Click to expand...

You're close, but not quite there. The correct answer is - see, our models have been wrong all this time because the waves absorbed more CO2 than we realized. So it turns out our models are actually correct now that we know this.
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
TampaBuzz said:
I thought this was a very interesting article....https://www.wvgazettemail.com/opini...cle_44f2b134-d2ee-50ab-8e71-696ac1fc0c93.html
Click to expand...

Odd. I always laugh when I read the hurricane predictions. The truth is nobody ever really knows. There is no way to know. And the fact that they won't admit to it is half the problem. Last year broke a record long streak in the history of data collection going back hundreds of years for how long it had been since a category 3 had made landfall on the US. But year after year after year large outbreaks of large hurricanes were predicted.

Our local weathermen give $100 to charity if they are within 6 degrees of the predicted high temperature the next day (+/- 3 degrees). They are only within 6 degrees for predicting the temperature tomorrow about 2/3rds of the time.
 
TampaBuzz

TampaBuzz

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,245
bwelbo said:
Last year broke a record long streak in the history of data collection going back hundreds of years for how long it had been since a category 3 had made landfall on the US.
Click to expand...
Can you explain this sentence to me? Are you saying that last year was the first category 3 storm to hit the US in hundreds of years?
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
TampaBuzz said:
Can you explain this sentence to me? Are you saying that last year was the first category 3 storm to hit the US in hundreds of years?
Click to expand...

No, it broke the longest streak without having a category 3 hit the US. It was something like 12 or 14 years without one. We have data on hurricanes going back hundreds of years. And that was the longest “Dry streak” Without one.
 
Whiskey_Clear

Whiskey_Clear

Banned
Messages
10,486
bwelbo said:
You're close, but not quite there. The correct answer is - see, our models have been wrong all this time because the waves absorbed more CO2 than we realized. So it turns out our models are actually correct now that we know this.
Click to expand...

Close but rreeeaaaaallllyyyy.....the models were correct but missing this tiny but oh so important tidbit which....actually shows how much worse, and truly dire things are now.

More CO2 was trapped than previously thought...and the release of it from the oceans in conjunction with further man made emissions (and don’t forget Kilauea too now!!!) means the impending catastrophic rise in atmospheric CO2 is imminent. And don’t forget this will also cause the oceans to turn to acid killing marine life.

I’m a AGW convert now!!! Action has to be taken immediately!!!

#calmtheseas #stopthewaves #michealmannsaveus #algoresaveus
 
TampaBuzz

TampaBuzz

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,245
bwelbo said:
No, it broke the longest streak without having a category 3 hit the US. It was something like 12 or 14 years without one. We have data on hurricanes going back hundreds of years. And that was the longest “Dry streak” Without one.
Click to expand...
Very true....I think it was 12 years or so without a category 3 or higher hitting the US. We were very fortunate (for US anyway) that the bigger storms in those years either hit Mexico, weakened before making landfall in the US or stayed offshore in the Atlantic.

I think that the weather forecasters at NOAA and in Tampa do a very good job of providing us information on the potential storm tracks and intensity and I trust that they are gonna be pretty darn accurate with their information and plan accordingly. Similarly, I trust climate scientists when they report that sea levels are rising. In coastal community all over Florida and the Gulf coast, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent to protect the infrastructure against sea level rise; we have to plan for it or our local economies will be devastated. I read all sorts of debates (primarily at the state/federal levels of government) about the "accuracy" of the sea level rise predictions. I get it, there is a level of uncertainty in any model based prediction; but honestly to me, it doesn't matter if the prediction is 100% accurate - if the prediction is 3 feet of sea level rise in 50 years and the actual turns out to be 2.5 feet, we will still have major problems with drowned utilities, increased flooding, increased insurance rates, etc. etc. etc. - and we won't know for sure until after I am dead and gone.

It seems that some (majority in Florida) of our state and federal politicians are willing to gamble the future of our coastal states and communities by betting that sea level rise isn't occurring because ......why? All of the data are wrong? I'll be dead and gone? Scientists are participating in a global conspiracy? Any action will require a tax increase? It occurs naturally, so it doesn't matter? Coastal communities are not important to our economy? Did you see that blizzard yesterday? Some businesses might be required to reduce pollution emissions? The sea level rise predictions are too high? We will have to find alternative sources of energy? If I take action, I won't get any payola and will lose the next primary? It won't effect me or my constituents?

Ok....I am having some fun with reasons to pretend sea level rise is not occurring. But I do live and work in stormwater management in coastal communities in Florida - and I know that the threat is real. We can debate about causes; we can debate about the accuracy of the predictions; we can debate about a lot of things - but it doesn't make the threat less real to coastal communities and the long-term economy of our country.
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
TampaBuzz said:
Very true....I think it was 12 years or so without a category 3 or higher hitting the US. We were very fortunate (for US anyway) that the bigger storms in those years either hit Mexico, weakened before making landfall in the US or stayed offshore in the Atlantic.

I think that the weather forecasters at NOAA and in Tampa do a very good job of providing us information on the potential storm tracks and intensity and I trust that they are gonna be pretty darn accurate with their information and plan accordingly. Similarly, I trust climate scientists when they report that sea levels are rising. In coastal community all over Florida and the Gulf coast, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent to protect the infrastructure against sea level rise; we have to plan for it or our local economies will be devastated. I read all sorts of debates (primarily at the state/federal levels of government) about the "accuracy" of the sea level rise predictions. I get it, there is a level of uncertainty in any model based prediction; but honestly to me, it doesn't matter if the prediction is 100% accurate - if the prediction is 3 feet of sea level rise in 50 years and the actual turns out to be 2.5 feet, we will still have major problems with drowned utilities, increased flooding, increased insurance rates, etc. etc. etc. - and we won't know for sure until after I am dead and gone.

It seems that some (majority in Florida) of our state and federal politicians are willing to gamble the future of our coastal states and communities by betting that sea level rise isn't occurring because ......why? All of the data are wrong? I'll be dead and gone? Scientists are participating in a global conspiracy? Any action will require a tax increase? It occurs naturally, so it doesn't matter? Coastal communities are not important to our economy? Did you see that blizzard yesterday? Some businesses might be required to reduce pollution emissions? The sea level rise predictions are too high? We will have to find alternative sources of energy? If I take action, I won't get any payola and will lose the next primary? It won't effect me or my constituents?

Ok....I am having some fun with reasons to pretend sea level rise is not occurring. But I do live and work in stormwater management in coastal communities in Florida - and I know that the threat is real. We can debate about causes; we can debate about the accuracy of the predictions; we can debate about a lot of things - but it doesn't make the threat less real to coastal communities and the long-term economy of our country.
Click to expand...

Living on the coast, I find the sea level rise hysteria in particular quite humorous. You can google what I say here to verify it, but from the legacy of the earlier ice age, the land in the northeast (now free of ice) rises with the lack of weight on it...and like a lever it pushes the lower southeast coast down. We are literally sinking about 1 inch per decade. Nobody ever talks about this - they just continue to measure sea level and call it all rise. Its not. I don't see the same thing here that you see in Florida - many cities have long term plans around flooding (which therefore becomes more and more often). On the political side mainly what I see is a lot of people yelling science deniers at everyone, which accomplishes nothing and isn't correct. I see the science and know where we are living. We all make choices to live here. What are we going to do, move out because in 75 years we'll be under water? That is really the only answer, other than building a large seawall...which ultimately won't work and isn't needed until we get there. You can't fight mother nature, so decades down the road as some communities become unlivable, people can just move. The End.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,597
TampaBuzz said:
Very true....I think it was 12 years or so without a category 3 or higher hitting the US. We were very fortunate (for US anyway) that the bigger storms in those years either hit Mexico, weakened before making landfall in the US or stayed offshore in the Atlantic.

I think that the weather forecasters at NOAA and in Tampa do a very good job of providing us information on the potential storm tracks and intensity and I trust that they are gonna be pretty darn accurate with their information and plan accordingly. Similarly, I trust climate scientists when they report that sea levels are rising. In coastal community all over Florida and the Gulf coast, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent to protect the infrastructure against sea level rise; we have to plan for it or our local economies will be devastated. I read all sorts of debates (primarily at the state/federal levels of government) about the "accuracy" of the sea level rise predictions. I get it, there is a level of uncertainty in any model based prediction; but honestly to me, it doesn't matter if the prediction is 100% accurate - if the prediction is 3 feet of sea level rise in 50 years and the actual turns out to be 2.5 feet, we will still have major problems with drowned utilities, increased flooding, increased insurance rates, etc. etc. etc. - and we won't know for sure until after I am dead and gone.

It seems that some (majority in Florida) of our state and federal politicians are willing to gamble the future of our coastal states and communities by betting that sea level rise isn't occurring because ......why? All of the data are wrong? I'll be dead and gone? Scientists are participating in a global conspiracy? Any action will require a tax increase? It occurs naturally, so it doesn't matter? Coastal communities are not important to our economy? Did you see that blizzard yesterday? Some businesses might be required to reduce pollution emissions? The sea level rise predictions are too high? We will have to find alternative sources of energy? If I take action, I won't get any payola and will lose the next primary? It won't effect me or my constituents?

Ok....I am having some fun with reasons to pretend sea level rise is not occurring. But I do live and work in stormwater management in coastal communities in Florida - and I know that the threat is real. We can debate about causes; we can debate about the accuracy of the predictions; we can debate about a lot of things - but it doesn't make the threat less real to coastal communities and the long-term economy of our country.
Click to expand...
As someone who was born and raised in south Louisiana, the dumbest idea I have ever heard is to spend literally billions on trying to "beat" Mother Nature on issues like climate change or seawater rise. First of wall, sea levels rise and fall over time....mankind hasn't caused a lot of that and mankind isn't going to stop it. How to solve the problem? Move. Simple. It's how these things always get solved, whether you choose to spend billions on it or not.

And please, if you want to spends billions on trying to stop Mother Nature, donate it, don't tax those of us who feel we know better and are willing to move rather to deal with such silliness...
 
Whiskey_Clear

Whiskey_Clear

Banned
Messages
10,486
TampaBuzz said:
Very true....I think it was 12 years or so without a category 3 or higher hitting the US. We were very fortunate (for US anyway) that the bigger storms in those years either hit Mexico, weakened before making landfall in the US or stayed offshore in the Atlantic.

I think that the weather forecasters at NOAA and in Tampa do a very good job of providing us information on the potential storm tracks and intensity and I trust that they are gonna be pretty darn accurate with their information and plan accordingly. Similarly, I trust climate scientists when they report that sea levels are rising. In coastal community all over Florida and the Gulf coast, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent to protect the infrastructure against sea level rise; we have to plan for it or our local economies will be devastated. I read all sorts of debates (primarily at the state/federal levels of government) about the "accuracy" of the sea level rise predictions. I get it, there is a level of uncertainty in any model based prediction; but honestly to me, it doesn't matter if the prediction is 100% accurate - if the prediction is 3 feet of sea level rise in 50 years and the actual turns out to be 2.5 feet, we will still have major problems with drowned utilities, increased flooding, increased insurance rates, etc. etc. etc. - and we won't know for sure until after I am dead and gone.

It seems that some (majority in Florida) of our state and federal politicians are willing to gamble the future of our coastal states and communities by betting that sea level rise isn't occurring because ......why? All of the data are wrong? I'll be dead and gone? Scientists are participating in a global conspiracy? Any action will require a tax increase? It occurs naturally, so it doesn't matter? Coastal communities are not important to our economy? Did you see that blizzard yesterday? Some businesses might be required to reduce pollution emissions? The sea level rise predictions are too high? We will have to find alternative sources of energy? If I take action, I won't get any payola and will lose the next primary? It won't effect me or my constituents?

Ok....I am having some fun with reasons to pretend sea level rise is not occurring. But I do live and work in stormwater management in coastal communities in Florida - and I know that the threat is real. We can debate about causes; we can debate about the accuracy of the predictions; we can debate about a lot of things - but it doesn't make the threat less real to coastal communities and the long-term economy of our country.
Click to expand...

Move to Kansas
 
forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

21st Century Throwback Dad
Messages
9,099
Location
North Shore, Chicago
MWBATL said:
As someone who was born and raised in south Louisiana, the dumbest idea I have ever heard is to spend literally billions on trying to "beat" Mother Nature on issues like climate change or seawater rise. First of wall, sea levels rise and fall over time....mankind hasn't caused a lot of that and mankind isn't going to stop it. How to solve the problem? Move. Simple. It's how these things always get solved, whether you choose to spend billions on it or not.

And please, if you want to spends billions on trying to stop Mother Nature, donate it, don't tax those of us who feel we know better and are willing to move rather to deal with such silliness...
Click to expand...
The Dutch have done okay with holding back the seas.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,597
forensicbuzz said:
The Dutch have done okay with holding back the seas.
Click to expand...
get many hurricanes in the North Sea, do they?

No, that's one reason why their sea defenses work...it is not generally the rise of the sea level, but storm surges and tides that do the damage....
 
forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

21st Century Throwback Dad
Messages
9,099
Location
North Shore, Chicago
MWBATL said:
get many hurricanes in the North Sea, do they?

No, that's one reason why their sea defenses work...it is not generally the rise of the sea level, but storm surges and tides that do the damage....
Click to expand...
I was joking. Anyone that has to have massive pumps to keep the sea from taking back the land they've "created" is...well...Dutch.
 
GT_05

GT_05

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,370
Just in case you don’t know how to talk to someone about climate change, I ran across this guide. Seriously. It systematically attempts to refute every reason that anyone has about not believing in climate change.

https://grist.org/series/skeptics/?utm_source=syndication

Personally, I’m sick of the global cooling, global warming, climate change, or man made climate change topic. If I see it on TV or hear it on the radio, I change the channel. If someone talks about it, I change the subject. It’s not that I don’t care but the “facts” about climate change seem to be inconsistent over the years. Not to mention, I really can’t stand listening to celebrities, who likely have no science background, telling me about climatology.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Deleted member 2897

Guest
GT_05 said:
Just in case you don’t know how to talk to someone about climate change, I ran across this guide. Seriously. It systematically attempts to refute every reason that anyone has about not believing in climate change.

https://grist.org/series/skeptics/?utm_source=syndication

Personally, I’m sick of the global cooling, global warming, climate change, or man made climate change topic. If I see it on TV or hear it on the radio, I change the channel. If someone talks about it, I change the subject. It’s not that I don’t care but the “facts” about climate change seem to be inconsistent over the years. Not to mention, I really can’t stand listening to celebrities, who likely have no science background, telling me about climatology.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

This is kind of where I'm at, but for slightly different reasons. I'm tired of having a situation where 2 people can mostly agree on the science, but 1 person is somehow stupid or an idiot if their politics don't match the other person. I see this not just in climate change, but other areas as well, like guns, healthcare, etc. The notion that there is only 1 way to improve or solve a problem is silly.
 
Top