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2015 Warmest Year on Record

Discussion in 'The Swarm Lounge' started by cyptomcat, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. TampaBuzz

    TampaBuzz Helluva Engineer

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    You are always talking about how much the land is sinking in the southeast and that it is more urgent than sea level rise...will you please point me to the research on that? I have done a couple of quick searchs and can't find anything. Thanks!
     
  2. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    16,372
    NOAA and others have been caught multiple times fudging numbers. NOAA has adjusted the raw temperature data a couple times, claiming that the equipment needed to be recalibrated. But the vast majority of the scientists aren't fudging data in my opinion, its the hysterical nature of their alarmism that's the problem. The data they post shows temperatures have increased about 1 degree in the last 150 years.
     
    Sidewalking likes this.
  3. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    16,372
    I didn't say it was more urgent than sea level rise. I said its just also urgent. And that sea level is rising irrespective of any human causes. The rate of change of sea level rise over the last 50 years compared to say the previous 100 is not very different. So even if it were 100% from humans (which isn't alleged), you're talking about less than 1 inch different.

    Here is one:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevor...sinking-into-the-atlantic-ocean/#53e782d733fb
    1.2 inches of sinking per decade.

    And sinking is actually also human caused - all the weight of concentrated building causes those areas to sink. The pulling of water out of aquifers leads to subsistence. And overbuilding removes trees which drink the water. Flooding is caused by a number of human-driven factors, and only 1 small part is global warming. Sinking ground, overbuilding, the weight of buildings, all leads to it.

    Note that over the last 50 years, its estimated that sea level along the southeast has risen 4 inches and that the ground has sank 6 inches.
     
    TampaBuzz likes this.
  4. Lotta Juice

    Lotta Juice Helluva Engineer

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    What do you mean "not worth it"? Are you expecting a cooling of multiple degrees for it to be "worth it"? The goal isn't necessarily to cool the planet at all...but to prevent warming that would make life uninhabitable in some places and cause disaster. If the status quo can be maintained that would be a success
     
  5. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    Do you really think a fraction of a degree different will make life uninhabitable? Temperatures over the last 150 years have risen about 3-4x that (about 1 full degree) and life is not uninhabitable. If the average temperature in say 10 years with all cars removed is 70F and it would have been 70.4F if we wouldn't have removed all the cars from the road, is the earth suddenly livable then when it wouldn't have been? You don't inflict massive negative damage on people's way of life for a highly uncertain outcome. You don't forecast the end of the world when no science predicts that. It ruins the entire debate and turns large volumes of people away from listening.
     
  6. Lotta Juice

    Lotta Juice Helluva Engineer

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    Fraction of a degree off the current baseline? No. But limiting the change to a fraction of a degree rather than multiple degrees down the road? Yes. That is significant.
     
  7. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    there is no science that predicts that. The IPCC Predicts that by implementing their recommendations, temperatures will be reduced by a fraction of a degree compared to what they would’ve been.
     
  8. Lotta Juice

    Lotta Juice Helluva Engineer

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    Yes, yes there is. Straight from IPCC. And the RCP numbers are different scenarios based on what measures are taken. Granted you didn't specify exactly which measures, or what timeline, but I think the below shows more than just a fraction of a degree over the next few decades

    [​IMG]
     
  9. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    Think their predictions of what happens in 2100 will come true? They can’t even predict the weather tomorrow. They’ve been wrong all along the way.

    I have no idea if those charts are what the human impacts are or if it’s predicted rate of change compared to what the rates of change were in the past. If it’s the latter, that doesn’t tell you anything about humans contribution. Furthermore, if you look out a decade or two, it is a tony fraction. No discussion of any topic would make huge drastic investments based on something not forecasted to matter for several decades. Especially when previous forecasts have all been wrong.
     
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  10. forensicbuzz

    forensicbuzz Helluva Engineer

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    3,226
    Regardless of whether the rise in temperature is due to human input (or largely due to human input) or not, we are charged with being good stewards of Mother Earth. I think we have an ethical obligation to take measures to minimize our impact on the environment around us. Some of the remedies discussed are not feasible without a significant impact on countries' economies. That alone will eventually create enough distress within said countries to push back enough for those initiatives to fail. The changes that need to be implemented should be done in a way to be as minimally impactful as possible. I do believe there is too much hysteria and too little unbiased research to support what is being said. Not saying it isn't true, just that there needs to be a better understanding of the impact while implementing measures for good stewardship.
     
  11. Sidewalking

    Sidewalking Banned

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    Sea levels have fluctuated for eons. Nothing alarming about current fluctuations globally. Please go find one single environmental prediction model that has been accurate and report back. Just one. See you next century.
     
  12. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    5,199
    A thoughtful response which I endorse!
     
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  13. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    So, let me get this straight...if we do the WORST according to the IPCC models (which have thus far been wrong), we will experience a sea level rise of....gee, almost 3 whole feet in about a century.

    Given that the Great Barrier Reef has survived sea level changes of nearly 300 feet, color me not so worried....
     
  14. Sidewalking

    Sidewalking Banned

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    196
    Take a deep breath and prove my point wrong. Money matters on both sides of this issue. Group think is another problem. Leftist ideologies running amok in academia are another. And yes, I do think science has become very flawed in the last few decades. "Scientists" no longer seem to embrace scientific theory and hypothesis.

    I'd tell the folks in Key Largo they should have built on higher ground. Cry me a river and raise sea water a tad more.
     
  15. Sidewalking

    Sidewalking Banned

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    Stop being so rational.....that is so first quarter of the 20th century. Get with the times :D
     
  16. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    As an FYI, to get a building permit in south Louisiana these days, you must be building at a elevation that is 11 or 12 feet ABOVE "base flood elevation"...I would think a 2 -3 foot rise would not be very problematic given that.....
     
  17. armeck

    armeck Ramblin' Wreck

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    https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#

    Test it out yourself, hope there are parts of Savannah you aren't too partial to.

    EDIT: Ooof. Check out St. Simons area as well.
     
  18. Sidewalking

    Sidewalking Banned

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    So everyone on St. Simons has been warned. Time to move out folks! :D

    Anyone wanting to sell their future underwater reefs for cheap give me a holler. I'll give you a few pennies on the dollar to help you out.
     
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  19. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    There are so many idiotic things about that site. First of all, according to the IPCC and NOAA's forecasts for sea level rise, they are expecting a 1 foot rise in about 40 years. Look at the scale on that page - you can't look at a view of anything less than a 1 foot rise, LOL. And it goes up to 10 feet. THE WORLD IS ENDING!
     
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  20. Sidewalking

    Sidewalking Banned

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    196
    Not if you have some property above the Mount Everest base camps and a bug out boat. You snooze you lose.
     

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