2015 Warmest Year on Record

GTNavyNuke

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I also find it funny that even our beloved IPCC over with the UN states that if we reduce carbon emissions by 25% that the global temperature will only drop 0.03 degrees. So at some point no matter how strongly you believe in the science, you have to acknowledge that the data shows humans are a much smaller contributor than the media and politicians claim.

I think that if we stopped carbon emissions entirely that temperature would continue to increase for a *while* since the adsorbtion of CO2 occurs very slowly. So any statement about how much global temperature would change has to include the time frame. The principal ways CO2 is taken out of the atmosphere is by plant life (photosynthesis leading to carbon fixation) and adsorption into the oceans increasing the pH. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide

We may both agree with this statement; "The data shows humans are a much less able to effect a change in the course global warming will take than most of the media and politicians claim."

Flooding and draughts have occurred throughout human history and will continue to. Some glaciers are gone, if not Detroit might be under two miles of ice still. Other glaciers are growing, even today. This flux has also occurred prior to "human activity."

Agree entirely, it is the rate of change today. The water level where I live at one time was near Richmond Va and at other times was out near the Continental shelf. It is the rate of change that is different now largely because humans have increased the amount of CO2 so much.

I fail to see the link between the article's hypothesis that the ignorance of man, believing in false faiths, has allowed mankind to succeed where chimps fail...that's a lol. There are much larger differences between man and chimp than belief in religion.

Nowhere did I see anything about the ignorance of man in the article. What I saw the the belief system we have constructed is in some cases based on myth. And as the article points out, it's not just religion but nationalism. "Ancient religions have not been the only ones that used fiction to cement cooperation. In more recent times, each nation has created its own national mythology, while movements such as communism, fascism and liberalism fashioned elaborate self-reinforcing credos. Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propaganda maestro and perhaps the most accomplished media-wizard of the modern age, allegedly explained his method succinctly by stating that “a lie told once remains a lie, but a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth.”

Myth can be stronger than facts to some though, that I concede. The notion that man caused catastrophic climate change is upon us is a great example of that IMO.

LOL. I figured this would be a rational response that climate change is a myth since that is central to the discussion.

I'd love to hear some of your factual data of accelerated global warming if you, or someone else, hasn't posted it already. Or feel free to jump in on prior points of debate as well.

The rate of change of global warming comes from ice core data. Temperature increase and CO2 increase are correlated over history. I tend to believe that correlation is causation in this case based on what Arrhenius showed a century ago. Here is one I found quickly: https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/ice-cores-and-climate-change/ And here is NASA data https://www.theguardian.com/environ...mate-change-warning-earth-temperature-warming
And a brief discussion about Arrhenius. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius
 

Deleted member 2897

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Flooding and draughts have occurred throughout human history and will continue to. Some glaciers are gone, if not Detroit might be under two miles of ice still. Other glaciers are growing, even today. This flux has also occurred prior to "human activity."

I fail to see the link between the article's hypothesis that the ignorance of man, believing in false faiths, has allowed mankind to succeed where chimps fail...that's a lol. There are much larger differences between man and chimp than belief in religion.

Myth can be stronger than facts to some though, that I concede. The notion that man caused catastrophic climate change is upon us is a great example of that IMO.

I'd love to hear some of your factual data of accelerated global warming if you, or someone else, hasn't posted it already. Or feel free to jump in on prior points of debate as well.

The article itself is hardly readable. The author has such a huge distaste for people who don't think like them. It's the typical "people who don't agree with me are anti-science nuts". But then on several other subjects they'll completely ignore science when it's more convenient to their positions. And Religion is not anti-science in the first place.
 

Whiskey_Clear

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Can not bring myself to read anything endorsed by Tucker Carlson. What a tool. Sorry.

I usually respect your insights on this matter even though we disagree. And I read links of those who have differed in my own opinion on this matter to educate myself on opposing views. That's the only path to enlightenment.

That you refuse to even read it is disappointing and honestly smacks of defeatism or stubborn disregard of potential new facts.
 

LibertyTurns

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Below is the current national intelligence assessment. Climate change section is on pgs 13-14. Notably the only region where climate change is assessed to have an impact specifically is the arctic where is identifies Russian expansion of military bases & exploiting sea lanes as a risk. It does delve into access to water, air quality, etc which are all items which few would question could lead to regional instability. Rightfully so it generally assesses general impacts to underdeveloped countries as being potentially significant.

In my opinion, this section was still pretty raw although an amprovement over Clapper's from last year where it stated climate change caused both drought and flooding which I thought was fairly ridiculous given the amount of review this document gets across the major USG departments prior to release.

Best path forward I my opinion would be to have the data analyzed by a panel of real statisticians to remove the bias from both sides. It's important for us to understand what's really going on so the proper changes can be implemented and get off the roller coaster the changers & deniers have us on. It really just boils down to a money & power struggle right now and each side it exercising whatever leverage it has to control the dialogue while the scientists are effectively either silenced or coerced into supporting one camp or the other with no middle ground- sound familiar?

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/SSCI Unclassified SFR - Final.pdf
 

awbuzz

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I.e. climate change can cause drought and flooding causing governments to be overwhelmingly burdened with being able to assist the people in the region making those governments ripe for takeover by others.
Granted we currently have similar issues in the world that are not due to any climate change in the last decade or 50 years. A lot of those situations are currently in Africa and the Middle East. Recent changes by man did not cause the global climate changes there or cause the droughts in those regions. However those regions do show what happens when there is a prolonged drought and that governments are not able to provide assistance for various reasons.
 

Whiskey_Clear

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@Northeast Stinger

I don't find the DOD paper to be a compelling case regarding this issue. To begin with it was in response to a Congressional request of DOD risk assessment based off the ASSUMPTION that climate change IS occurring and thus what would be the biggest concerns for respective commands.

"The Senate Appropriations Committee requested the report in conjunction with the Defense Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2015, asking that the undersecretary of defense for policy provide a report that identifies the most serious and likely climate-related security risks for each combatant command and the ways those commands integrate risk mitigation into their planning processes."

Not only does the above basically request DOD to assume climate change is occurring, it's also asking for worst case scenario planning.

“The Department of Defense's primary responsibility is to protect national security interests around the world,” officials said in a news release announcing the report’s submission. “This involves considering all aspects of the global security environment and planning appropriately for potential contingencies and the possibility of unexpected developments both in the near and the longer terms.

The paper actually cites this a risk assessment based on "unexpected possibilities."

"It is in this context,” they continued, “that the department must consider the effects of climate change -- such as sea level rise, shifting climate zones and more frequent and intense severe weather events -- and how these effects could impact national security.”

This paper does nothing to further the AGW debate. The congressional request for it is a brilliant way for alarmists to misuse it to further pull the wool over their flock's eyes. Basically it's asking the pentagon for a worst case scenario risk assessment in order to then say "See!!! Even our military says AGW is a national security risk!!" Come on man. Your smart enough to recognize this.

 

Northeast Stinger

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@Northeast Stinger

I don't find the DOD paper to be a compelling case regarding this issue. To begin with it was in response to a Congressional request of DOD risk assessment based off the ASSUMPTION that climate change IS occurring and thus what would be the biggest concerns for respective commands.

"The Senate Appropriations Committee requested the report in conjunction with the Defense Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2015, asking that the undersecretary of defense for policy provide a report that identifies the most serious and likely climate-related security risks for each combatant command and the ways those commands integrate risk mitigation into their planning processes."

Not only does the above basically request DOD to assume climate change is occurring, it's also asking for worst case scenario planning.

“The Department of Defense's primary responsibility is to protect national security interests around the world,” officials said in a news release announcing the report’s submission. “This involves considering all aspects of the global security environment and planning appropriately for potential contingencies and the possibility of unexpected developments both in the near and the longer terms.

The paper actually cites this a risk assessment based on "unexpected possibilities."

"It is in this context,” they continued, “that the department must consider the effects of climate change -- such as sea level rise, shifting climate zones and more frequent and intense severe weather events -- and how these effects could impact national security.”

This paper does nothing to further the AGW debate. The congressional request for it is a brilliant way for alarmists to misuse it to further pull the wool over their flock's eyes. Basically it's asking the pentagon for a worst case scenario risk assessment in order to then say "See!!! Even our military says AGW is a national security risk!!" Come on man. Your smart enough to recognize this.

Maybe I not that smart. My point is that climate change is something that multiple organizations are concerned about independent of each other. There is no grand global conspiracy to take over the world using climate change as the foil.
 

Northeast Stinger

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https://climateandsecurity.org/2017...-assessment-of-the-us-intelligence-community/

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/220575-pentagon-unveils-plan-to-fight-climate-change

http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/military-leaders-join-chorus-warning-of-climate-change/

https://thinkprogress.org/ama-clima...ysicians-are-starting-to-see-the-3a8dcafb39df

https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/default.htm

http://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/environment/climate-change

https://www.americangeosciences.org/press/year/2010

https://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/928.asp

Obviously some of these articles are old but I was just randomly grabbing from just a few of the many organizations that accept the scientific consensus on climate change. Again, the point is that these are not all working in concert, as the conspiracy theorists maintain, but each came to conclusions after particular impacts were seen in their respective areas of expertise, whether it was doctors on the front line confronting new challenges to health care, oil and gas companies whose own engineers uncovered illuminating data, or geologists confronting rapidly changing conditions in the polar regions. I remember reading an article in the Military Times a while back that made it clear that there is no branch of the military that is not currently "gaming" based on climate change projections. So, I guess there are a lot of us out there that are not that smart.
 

Northeast Stinger

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Yes. I was unconvinced.

But I doubt you and I would get anywhere debating it.

But, just so you know, my problem is that this sounds like the same argument that has cropped up every few months over the last several years, each time claiming to be some new breathtaking scoop on "the climate change conspiracy." Since I do not believe there is a conspiracy, it is hard for me to read the same old arguments over and over again with fresh eyes.

But, let me try to be a little more generous to this position. Let's assume everyone from NASA to the EPA to the Pentagon to the CIA to the NSA to the Weather Channel, etc., etc., is not actually in on the conspiracy but in fact are all being duped by a few well placed people who are in on the conspiracy. Then the question arises as to what the motive is. In my mind I have exhausted every possible explanation for why a group of people would want to dupe the entire world on this topic and I find them all to be pretty far fetched.

So let's just say that everyone has a bias in this discussion and leave it at that. Joe D'Aleo has been pretty up front about his bias which I will quote:
"We believe Earth and its ecosystems — created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence — are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth's climate system is no exception."

I find this to be really terrible theology, contrary to scripture and sacred tradition. But that is my bias. So you see the problem. I would have to chance my entire world view (something that only one person in a million can ever accomplish) to accept the starting point of the person whose bias is to not take climate change seriously.
 

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Yes. I was unconvinced.

But I doubt you and I would get anywhere debating it.

But, just so you know, my problem is that this sounds like the same argument that has cropped up every few months over the last several years, each time claiming to be some new breathtaking scoop on "the climate change conspiracy." Since I do not believe there is a conspiracy, it is hard for me to read the same old arguments over and over again with fresh eyes.

But, let me try to be a little more generous to this position. Let's assume everyone from NASA to the EPA to the Pentagon to the CIA to the NSA to the Weather Channel, etc., etc., is not actually in on the conspiracy but in fact are all being duped by a few well placed people who are in on the conspiracy. Then the question arises as to what the motive is. In my mind I have exhausted every possible explanation for why a group of people would want to dupe the entire world on this topic and I find them all to be pretty far fetched.

So let's just say that everyone has a bias in this discussion and leave it at that. Joe D'Aleo has been pretty up front about his bias which I will quote:
"We believe Earth and its ecosystems — created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence — are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth's climate system is no exception."

I find this to be really terrible theology, contrary to scripture and sacred tradition. But that is my bias. So you see the problem. I would have to chance my entire world view (something that only one person in a million can ever accomplish) to accept the starting point of the person whose bias is to not take climate change seriously.

If you actually read it (go to a different source than Daily Caller if you need to) then you wouldn't have responded with 27 other linked articles that have no bearing or relationship to the current debate at hand. A few points:
* I agree with you that nobody should be having scientific debates moderated by someone like Tucker Carlson.

Now, having gotten that out of the way:
* There is a PEER REVIEWED study out that shows that nearly all of the warming in temperatures has come from manual adjustments to the raw temperature data.

So it doesn't matter how many different studies we throw at each other that show the temperatures have risen X amount, global warming is causing Y, etc. - all those underlying studies and all of the data scientists worldwide are using to arrive at their consensus is based upon manually adjusted readings.

Now, as engineers, we all know that various types of sensors that measure temperature send an output signal...electronically, in mm of Mercury, etc. These signals are then converted to a temperature number based upon an equation. And we do learn over time that these equations or correction factors need to be adjusted. So we can't wholly throw this revelation out as full proof of a conspiracy by scientists. But what I found interesting is that all of the raw temperature values were lowered a long time ago and all were increased recently. THAT is what will get your conspiracy ears perked up - why is it nearly uniform manual adjustments? These temperature sensors are all over the world, and they all needed tweaking identically?

There's a lot more wrong than I'll get into on this one single post, but that's enough for now.

By the way, today is day #4,279 since the last time a Category 3 hurricane or stronger made landfall on the United States. That's an all time record, and by many many years.
 

Whiskey_Clear

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All of the global environmental models have been wrong. Not a single one has accurately predicted future temps or weather patterns. Then the hockey stick analysis appears to be very suspect. So what exactly are the AGE alarmists hanging their hats on with such stubborness?
 

Northeast Stinger

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If you actually read it (go to a different source than Daily Caller if you need to) then you wouldn't have responded with 27 other linked articles that have no bearing or relationship to the current debate at hand. A few points:
* I agree with you that nobody should be having scientific debates moderated by someone like Tucker Carlson.

Now, having gotten that out of the way:
* There is a PEER REVIEWED study out that shows that nearly all of the warming in temperatures has come from manual adjustments to the raw temperature data.

So it doesn't matter how many different studies we throw at each other that show the temperatures have risen X amount, global warming is causing Y, etc. - all those underlying studies and all of the data scientists worldwide are using to arrive at their consensus is based upon manually adjusted readings.

Now, as engineers, we all know that various types of sensors that measure temperature send an output signal...electronically, in mm of Mercury, etc. These signals are then converted to a temperature number based upon an equation. And we do learn over time that these equations or correction factors need to be adjusted. So we can't wholly throw this revelation out as full proof of a conspiracy by scientists. But what I found interesting is that all of the raw temperature values were lowered a long time ago and all were increased recently. THAT is what will get your conspiracy ears perked up - why is it nearly uniform manual adjustments? These temperature sensors are all over the world, and they all needed tweaking identically?

There's a lot more wrong than I'll get into on this one single post, but that's enough for now.

By the way, today is day #4,279 since the last time a Category 3 hurricane or stronger made landfall on the United States. That's an all time record, and by many many years.

Well, O.K. But here is the thing. The article is not stating anything that has not been stated before. It is just being stated differently. The adverbial modifier used in the article at least twice, with regard to adjustments, was "nearly always," as in nearly always adjusted upward. This was said after it was admitted that adjusting raw data is pretty standard.

I read nothing new here.
 

Northeast Stinger

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Hmm....on further thought I wonder what the answer would be from those who view this article as gospel if they discovered that raw data adjustments were adjusted downward, not upward, about 50% of the time? That gives a whole new definition to the phrase, "nearly always adjusted upward."

I am through with this article. Thanks for playing.
 

Whiskey_Clear

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Hmm....on further thought I wonder what the answer would be from those who view this article as gospel if they discovered that raw data adjustments were adjusted downward, not upward, about 50% of the time? That gives a whole new definition to the phrase, "nearly always adjusted upward."

I am through with this article. Thanks for playing.

I'd have a different take if the adjustments had a fairly even distribution, up and down, throughout the entire timeline. But it doesn't. This study confirms many suspicions, suspicions that Michael Mann seemed to try very hard to cover up.

If it looks like a :poop:, smells like a :poop:.....it probably is a :poop:.

But let's go ruin our economy at our own detriment, to the benefit of the rest of the world, just to make all the alarmists feel better about saving the world....from a disaster that doesn't exist. :banghead:
 
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