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I was talking about the IFR used in the equations for total deaths. Should have been more specific. You can use total populations for something like your old favorite deaths per million population. Though why you like this metric so much when you have such a high level of mistrust for other...

And heeeeere's Aaron! See: https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/lessons-from-singapore-and-reopening-the-united-states/ Short Aaron: think big. As big as the problem. I think a reactivation/increase of the surveillance network he mentions is the most likely to be useful. Too many...

Just one thing. You calculate death rates for a disease by deaths among infected persons, not the population of the county/state/nation as a whole. I hear you about being more selective about when and where to try to get back to normal activity. In general, I agree. The problem with doing so...

One thing might help. I've noticed that you tend to think of explanations anecdotally; I tend to think of them generally. When you come here to talk about "misinformation" you usually talk about South Carolina (and I admit I was wrong about that; I looked and I'll be more careful). Most of what...

The equation is for excess deaths from SARS-Cov-2 alone. What you say is true, of course; old people die in large numbers. But it isn't for you or me to decide to take actions that cut their lives short and not care one whit about it. What you are saying - and pretty cavalierly, I might add -...

Well, first, my ability to stay home has more to do with 50 years of hard work and saving before retirement then with you going back to work or, I might add, social security, but we'll let that pass. You whippersnappers have no real conception of what us geezers went through to get a decent...

I posted about the earlier. See: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/ Do the math. If we don't have a vaccine and we need ~ 70% infection to reach herd immunity and the IFR is .5 (it was .878 in NYC, btw), the equation tells us: (330M * .7) * .005...

1. If this was feasible without creating another ~ 700K deaths, I'd agree. It isn't and I suspect that you know it. That's why I believe in calling on people to behave responsibly and penalizing them if they don't. There are 90M (yes, 90M) vulnerable Americans. We are all in this together or we...

This is both true and false. It is true that the virus can be mitigated without disrupting society greatly. But only if a) there have been effective efforts to bring the transmission rate down and b) there has been a plan with infrastructure put in place to run a regime of contact tracing and...

Feel like doing your own analysis of “herd immunity”? See: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/ This comes complete with a handy internal app to do simulations and a lot of useful information on the basic epidemiology of the virus (and viruses in...

Read it and you'll see this isn't so. The massive increase in unemployment we see today is a continuation of trends already developing before the shutdowns. Their models include controls for the early and late stages of shutdowns to account for what you are saying. Or, at least, that's what...

The paper shows that employment had already begun to increase as business activity decreased. It had in the service industries before any government mitigation action. In short, most of the shutdowns were actually recognizing a fait accompli. It was what Rojas et al call the "public health...

So do I. But not for the whole game. I've got some people near me who do just that. Very annoying.

That would be because we didn't have SARS-Cov-2 to contend with. This has been another in a series of simple answers to simple questions.

Well, there is that. Problem = it is the whippersnappers who are standing up, not the geezers. Maybe you'll luck out and nobody will be in front of you. Btw, if they are call an usher and get them to move at least 10 feet from your seats.

Suit yourself. I would advise reading this that Bongo posted earlier: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them Grant Field is the last place in Atlanta (unless you are a member of a gym) that you should want to go. A simple fact from the post: when a person who is...

What they are saying is that different states responded differently at different times (you may remember), but that the rise in unemployment was pretty uniform, despite the differences in policy and the differences in the impact of the disease. Now, you can twist on that hook as long as you...

This is interesting: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27127.pdf Short paper: what caused the sudden rise of unemployment? Was it a matter of how bad the pandemic was or the mitigation efforts made by the states? Rojas et al say it was the health shocks. People were already bailing out of work and...

I understand what you are saying, but I doubt lifting weights in the open air will prevent spread. And, like I said, all it'll take is one case. But I doubt the colleges will open this fall anyway. And, if they do, I doubt that 25% of the students will show up. Why should their parents take the...

As has been pointed out here before, Tech fans, as a group, are old geezers. I'm 74 and a lot of the people sitting around me are that old, at least. I can almost guarantee you that nobody over 65 is going to show up for any athletic event - even a t-ball game - until we get wide-spread...