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Don't know if this has been posted before: https://www.vox.com/2020/5/6/21241058/coronavirus-mitigation-suppression-flatten-the-curve Yglesias is right here, I think. We might have reached a level where the disease will not overwhelm our medical facilities - the so-called "plateau" - but that...

I did leave out another possibility: that Georgians are sensible enough to avoid dangerous situations to keep R low. We'll know if that - and it would be a very positive trend if it shows up - in a couple of weeks. As long as people stay outside when they get into groups and keep their distance...

Early days for this kind of analysis. What we are seeing now is where the course of the epidemic was 2 - 3 weeks ago; i.e., about when the shelter-in-place regimes ended. We'll have to wait for another month or so to see what the results of "re-opening" are. Who knows? Maybe we'll be lucky...

Yes, I concede that. We have to remember that a lot of those people didn't show up because the emergency rooms in NYC made it clear that they were swamped and that, unless you really thought you were going to be in extremis soon, you shouldn't show up. I understand why they did that, but, with...

This is a false dichotomy and you know it. If we weren't in the middle of an epidemic involving a disease that is easily contagious and deadly too boot, then the argument might have some relevance. (Though, as the second link shows, not a whole lot.) But, of course, we are. It isn't that your...

In line with the more nerdy side of this thread, here's Henry: https://crookedtimber.org/2020/05/12/public-choice/ I think this is spot on. One thing that has been systematically ignored - and that's what it is; everybody knows this - is the asymmetric power relationships that are forcing the...

It isn't the thumb that's the problem. It's when the methods tell you to punch the button. For reasons known only to themselves and God (and, maybe, Brian Kemp), the DPH has problems with that.

Is it really that hard for you to understand a general point? The similarity is that in both cases individual behavior causes substantial harm and there is no market to allow us to ameliorate it. The reason is, again, that the effects are incidental to the behavior and can't be included in the...

A few days ago, I posted a vid on the maths behind running down the virus. But I didn't mention the big takeaway for me: pandemics are an externality. It is a lot like emissions from cars. In the old days we had a lot of people - pretty much the same ones as are at risk from COVID-19 - who died...

Something similar - an initial government screw-up involving not wanting to admit a new disease had emerged in China - happened with SARS. The record there is enough to convince me that, doggone it, the Chinese did it again! But … we'll probably never know.

All this is a fine example of why we should all keep Hanlon's Razor in mind. That is: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government has blundered multiple time in their treatment of the virus and the news they've put out...

Here's something interesting about the way the Georgia DPH has ben reporting COVID-19 stats: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/just-cuckoo-state-latest-data-mishap-causes-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/ I'm inclined to agree that there's nothing sinister about...

Yes, and who was their QB, I hear you ask? Why, that would be … MARK HARMON. Yes, that Mark Harmon. He was right good at it too. I'm very sorry to hear about Pepper's death. He was one of my favorite GT coaches and did wonders for our recruitment of African-Americans. Besides, I really liked...

Btw, I meant "responsibly" in the 5th sentence. My bad.

Since the whole question of limits has come up … See: This is simply the best short video on the math behind strategies involving the virus and what to do about it I've seen so far. Short video: get social distancing to a high enough value and we'll kill the virus off with or without a...

A bad seasonal flu has a death rate of around .1. SARS-Cov-2 is a lot more contagious then the flu and has a death rate of between .5 and .9. It would also help if they didn't have the debilitating effects that COVID-19 does. On that, see...

Well … I'm willing to eat a few financial costs. But I'm not willing to, you know, get sick or die to be sure they get the opportunity to behave foolishly. As I keep saying here, your rights end when they cause me harm and they always have. If you can confine your foolishness to yourself...

Yet almost all communities do it without spurring a widespread outbreak of syphilis. Did you watch the film? Do so and you will find precious little in the way of parental intervention of any kind. My favorite is the dad of one of the girls who's idea of providing engagement with his daughter...

Some of you might be interested in an example of how contact tracing works. See: This is the great FRONTLINE "The Lost Children of Rockdale County". It'a about the STD outbreak there in the late 90s and how the public health department tracked down the network that led to it. Then it looks at...

He is on the stats. They don't have an ideological tilt when they are interpreted correctly. And Silver usually does that. Occasionally, he listens too much to the echo chamber (he admits he did in 2016), but not often.