Coronavirus Thread

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Crazy story on the news tonight – one of NBC news medical expert commentators, Dr. Fair, had a story about him tonight. He presumably contracted the virus and has been in the hospital on oxygen. Everybody says he has it, yet they have tested him on four different occasions and every single test keeps coming back negative. WTH?
 

MWBATL

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GoldZ said:
Sorry for the confusion. Must be my stuttering. I was trying to say that imo we are at a point of having to take risk to open back up--gradually. I don't think my NIMBY point is confusing to anybody.
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Yup...we agree (sorta). It's that word "gradually" that gets us all in trouble. That could mean 6 months to you and 6 days to me.
 

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takethepoints said:
This is both true and false.

It is true that the virus can be mitigated without disrupting society greatly. But only if a) there have been effective efforts to bring the transmission rate down and b) there has been a plan with infrastructure put in place to run a regime of contact tracing and isolation after the infection rate is lowered. We did a; we've failed completely at b. We essentially wasted two whole months without putting the necessary resources in place to make a stab - it would always be difficult in a country this large with such a large population - at beating the thing down.

It is certainly true that many will suffer or die as a result of a prolonged shutdown (though not, I think, as many as will die in the near future). But that is largely because of a completely disorganized national effort to take on the virus. Both governors and the national administration seemed to think that an initial mitigation effort would do the job. Why, I do not know; the public health people have been consistent on a mitigate/trace/isolate strategy from the first. Some governors took that seriously - Inslee, Newsome, Cuomo - largely because they either had large outbreaks or paid attention to expert advice. Others have not (I'm looking at you, Brian Kemp). We'll see the results for those states in a few weeks.

What it comes down to is that we had a chance to not just mitigate the virus, but to beat it down to the point that we could return to something like normal activity. We've probably (there's always hope) blown that chance. We'll pay a substantial price, both economically and in term of lost lives, for our folly in this.
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About all I can really say on this is that we disagree. Completely. I am not sure it makes any more sense to discuss, as our points of view are so radically different.
  • I believe in sheltering those most vulnerable...vulnerable in terms of mortality, not infection itself. You apparently want to let everyone run loose as long as we have vigilant tracking and isolation only when tested positive
  • I believe in letting people decide for themselves along with their families if they want to expose grandma to a risk. (Mostly I believe that it's grandma's choice.) Sounds like you believe it's the government's job.
  • I believe in "playing the odds" and letting those are very low risks of mortality open up full speed, like going back to school, college, etc etc. Just keep them away from the vulnerable group.
  • You love to interject political comments by complimenting Democrats and pointing fingers at Republicans...I believe that is supposed to be in the political threads (But apparently you don't get warned)
  • I am more concerned about overall loss of life and economic impact whereas you continuously reflexively fall back on the covid death tallies as your scorecard (I'm NOT looking at you, Brian Kemp)
Selah....
 

684Bee

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bwelbo said:
Crazy story on the news tonight – one of NBC news medical expert commentators, Dr. Fair, had a story about him tonight. He presumably contracted the virus and has been in the hospital on oxygen. Everybody says he has it, yet they have tested him on four different occasions and every single test keeps coming back negative. WTH?
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I saw the same thing. Headline of the story says, “NBC News Medical Team Member Battles C19” and yet he’s tested negative negative 4 times! Only explanation given was, “well, he waited too long to get tested”. What? Then test for antibodies, so that you can be accurate in your reporting.
 
FredJacket

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bwelbo said:
Crazy story on the news tonight – one of NBC news medical expert commentators, Dr. Fair, had a story about him tonight. He presumably contracted the virus and has been in the hospital on oxygen. Everybody says he has it, yet they have tested him on four different occasions and every single test keeps coming back negative. WTH?
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684Bee said:
I saw the same thing. Headline of the story says, “NBC News Medical Team Member Battles C19” and yet he’s tested negative negative 4 times! Only explanation given was, “well, he waited too long to get tested”. What? Then test for antibodies, so that you can be accurate in your reporting.
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I would have loved to hear the NBC folks deciding to air this story.

NBC1: Hey... let's run a story on our own, Dr Fair... about his battle with COVID19.

NBC2: But he doesn't have COVID19

NBC1: Yes. He does. Just ask him.

NBC2: OK... what will we tell the viewers?

NBC1: They'll never notice... we'll just have a lot of graphics & keep repeating that he does have it.

Is this not really bizarre? Running a story about one of your own (a Dr no less) with COVID19 after testing negative 4 out of 4 tests. Anybody know the odds of this happening?
 

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FredJacket said:
I would have loved to hear the NBC folks deciding to air this story.

NBC1: Hey... let's run a story on our own, Dr Fair... about his battle with COVID19.

NBC2: But he doesn't have COVID19

NBC1: Yes. He does. Just ask him.

NBC2: OK... what will we tell the viewers?

NBC1: They'll never notice... we'll just have a lot of graphics & keep repeating that he does have it.

Is this not really bizarre? Running a story about one of your own (a Dr no less) with COVID19 after testing negative 4 out of 4 tests. Anybody know the odds of this happening?
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I don’t even watch that much news, but I’ve seen this sort of thing several times.
 

takethepoints

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MWBATL said:
About all I can really say on this is that we disagree. Completely. I am not sure it makes any more sense to discuss, as our points of view are so radically different.
  • I believe in sheltering those most vulnerable...vulnerable in terms of mortality, not infection itself. You apparently want to let everyone run loose as long as we have vigilant tracking and isolation only when tested positive
  • I believe in letting people decide for themselves along with their families if they want to expose grandma to a risk. (Mostly I believe that it's grandma's choice.) Sounds like you believe it's the government's job.
  • I believe in "playing the odds" and letting those are very low risks of mortality open up full speed, like going back to school, college, etc etc. Just keep them away from the vulnerable group.
  • You love to interject political comments by complimenting Democrats and pointing fingers at Republicans...I believe that is supposed to be in the political threads (But apparently you don't get warned)
  • I am more concerned about overall loss of life and economic impact whereas you continuously reflexively fall back on the covid death tallies as your scorecard (I'm NOT looking at you, Brian Kemp)
Selah....
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1. If this was feasible without creating another ~ 700K deaths, I'd agree. It isn't and I suspect that you know it. That's why I believe in calling on people to behave responsibly and penalizing them if they don't. There are 90M (yes, 90M) vulnerable Americans. We are all in this together or we aren't.

2. MW: "Coronavirus, will you agree to not infect people who are exposed to people who decide to increase the risk that you will infect them? Will you leave the others alone?" Virus: (with a snicker) "Why, sure, MW! I'll only infect the people who decide to expose themselves to me! The rest of you (here it can't control itself and breaks down into a full guffaw) will be safe from me!" Who's going to stop it, if it isn't the government? The Tooth Fairy?

3. Already addressed in point 1 above. You simply can't be this naive or think that the virus won't spread unchecked among the vulnerable as well as the rest of the population once the infection rate increases. And, make no mistake, that's what you are calling for.

4. Can you name any governors besides the ones I did that have addressed the need for contact tracing and started to put the necessary infrastructure in place during the last two months? This doesn't have anything to do with politics. The governors I named listened to their public health officers; most didn't. It's that simple. And we are going to pay for it.

5. Or, in short, you are concerned about a speculative number - I haven't seen study one on this cited here - while I have a present disease and sound predictions about its future course to draw on.

Personally, I think Americans have a lot more guts and sense in the presence of a natural disaster then you give them credit for. Give them the aid they need to get through it and we'll do fine. Let our friend the virus run free and, unless we get a vaccine, we are looking at 1M deaths.

But you are probably right. Arguing about this with you is pointless. We'll soon see who's right. If any governor does what you propose, that is.
 
LibertyTurns

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FredJacket said:
What do you mean by this sort of thing? 4 consecutive negative test on a sick person?.... then calling it COVID19 anyway?
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Wouldn’t be a news story if the dude was just sick. He’d just be some random butthole that wasted 4 tests someone else could have gotten. The only reason anyone knows who this guy is happens to be he’s declaring himself C19 positive but tested negative 4 times. I got an idea, why don’t we ask this EXPERT for EXPERT medical advice? He’s repetitively wrong 100% of the time so just ask him what to do & do the opposite. Odds are you’d be right 100% of the time.
 

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LibertyTurns said:
Wouldn’t be a news story if the dude was just sick. He’d just be some random butthole that wasted 4 tests someone else could have gotten. The only reason anyone knows who this guy is happens to be he’s declaring himself C19 positive but tested negative 4 times. I got an idea, why don’t we ask this EXPERT for EXPERT medical advice? He’s repetitively wrong 100% of the time so just ask him what to do & do the opposite. Odds are you’d be right 100% of the time.
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We haven’t even gotten to the funniest part of the story. Do you know where he thinks he got it? He flew on a packed flight from NYC to New Orleans. 1 hot spot to another. Why on earth would someone who is a virologist put himself in that position?
 

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bwelbo said:
We haven’t even gotten to the funniest part of the story. Do you know where he thinks he got it? He flew on a packed flight from NYC to New Orleans. 1 hot spot to another. Why on earth would someone who is a virologist put himself in that position?
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The people who continue to say there hasn’t been over counting amaze me. We’ve had govt incentivize healthcare facilities to do it, Dr Birx admit it, and instances like this on national news right in our faces that show that there is.

So far, the only evidence to the other side is, “Well, you’ve had more people die at home, so that all has to be attributable to C19”. No, it doesn’t. You’ve had many, many people who were so terrified that they didn’t seek the medical care they needed, even for serious things. I know some personally. If you don’t do an autopsy and test, then you don’t know. It’s an assumption.
 

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So Wisconsin courts reject the stay-at-home rules from the Governor. Their opinion states the government has the power to do these things, but they need to follow the law. That’s how courts are supposed to act - not with emotion, but just follow and enforce the law. The governor appears to be pitching a fit. Why don’t you just get with the legislature and do it the right way? What’s so difficult about that? He must feel his crown is being challenged.
 

MWBATL

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takethepoints said:
1. If this was feasible without creating another ~ 700K deaths, I'd agree. It isn't and I suspect that you know it. That's why I believe in calling on people to behave responsibly and penalizing them if they don't. There are 90M (yes, 90M) vulnerable Americans. We are all in this together or we aren't.

2. MW: "Coronavirus, will you agree to not infect people who are exposed to people who decide to increase the risk that you will infect them? Will you leave the others alone?" Virus: (with a snicker) "Why, sure, MW! I'll only infect the people who decide to expose themselves to me! The rest of you (here it can't control itself and breaks down into a full guffaw) will be safe from me!" Who's going to stop it, if it isn't the government? The Tooth Fairy?

3. Already addressed in point 1 above. You simply can't be this naive or think that the virus won't spread unchecked among the vulnerable as well as the rest of the population once the infection rate increases. And, make no mistake, that's what you are calling for.

4. Can you name any governors besides the ones I did that have addressed the need for contact tracing and started to put the necessary infrastructure in place during the last two months? This doesn't have anything to do with politics. The governors I named listened to their public health officers; most didn't. It's that simple. And we are going to pay for it.

5. Or, in short, you are concerned about a speculative number - I haven't seen study one on this cited here - while I have a present disease and sound predictions about its future course to draw on.

Personally, I think Americans have a lot more guts and sense in the presence of a natural disaster then you give them credit for. Give them the aid they need to get through it and we'll do fine. Let our friend the virus run free and, unless we get a vaccine, we are looking at 1M deaths.

But you are probably right. Arguing about this with you is pointless. We'll soon see who's right. If any governor does what you propose, that is.
Click to expand...
Wow, talk about making up numbers to support your point of view....whew! A million deaths...When we have had 80,000 deaths so far. (maybe)
Let’s see, I believe 2 million will die if we follow your advice.
See, I can make up numbers too!
 
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