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i think the next couple of weeks is likely to get very testy. There are already some businesses that have said tonight they will not re-open, that includes the major movie cinema's, SoulCycle, and some gyms. Mayor of Atlanta is talking about taking legal action. All AME churches have been told...

Keep in mind that 50K is a modeling estimate. That actual death certificate number for that year was 11K+. Gives you a sense of what the likely ultimate death toll from this is going to be when we are already well over 30K death certificates for COVID19.

I'm just passing along what AD's are saying. They are not going to treat SA's different than students. Based on what is happening in Singapore I could see colleges deciding to keep students away and not living in the dorms.

I think winter sports are actually even more unlikely than fall sports. The Director of the CDC had an interview today where he said a second wave in the winter time could be worse than the first wave because it would overlap with flu cases causing a double whammy to health services. My gut...

of course not. I never said stay in place into perpetuity or treat neighbors like they have leprosy. But it is not too much to ask to be smart about it and to do it when you are actually meeting the guidelines for re-opening - which GA is nowhere close to meeting today. Gov Kemp is taking a...

Lindsey Graham's responses on GA re-opening plans.

This analogy hurts because it feels so true. I still can't understand the movie theaters for the life of me. There are no movies scheduled to open now until July - and that will only happen if the big entertainment centers (NYC/LA) allow theaters to be open by then. Most movie chains have...

Here is a good article explaining the challenges of ramping up COVID19 testing. Basically we are going too fast and too slow at the same time. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-are-not-enough-covid-19-tests-there-are-also-too-many-covid-19-tests/ Also, another study and HCQ. Largest...

There have been plenty of AD's who have publicly stated they will not play football if college students are not on campus. If it is not safe for college students to be on campus then it is not safe for student-athletes to be on campus. There has been nothing but total agreement among AD's on...

Actually the death rate is significantly understated right now. First, we aren't even testing at anywhere near the level to capture all the deaths. Second, look at the comparison to the flu. All our death statistics for diseases are ultimately computed using computer models. flu death...

The difference is before February you were unlikely to contract a disease that could potentially kill you and certainly could give you the worst illness you've ever had in your life. This constant talk of it not being that bad, only the old and sick die, is not particularly true. 55% of...

I will say I don't have an issue with slowly and carefully re-opening the economy. We can't stay locked down forever and we aren't supposed to. But that said there are a couple of issues. First, why did he choose the businesses he chose to start with? To me most don't make alot of sense. Bowling...

05, I also forgot to mention, basically I think the herd immunity strategy doesn't really translate well in real life due to 2 assumptions that don't hold well at least with this virus. First is the idea of we can the high at risk safe. This is the Sweden Strategy. They basically tried to keep...

FWIW, was looking at research into this over the weekend. The current numbers I saw for mortality rates were basically as follows. (what that translates to in deaths if you apply it to the American population in those age ranges) 19-25 yr olds - 0.001 (0.1%) (28,021) 26-34 - 0.002 (79,181) 35-54...

One thing to keep in mind about Sweden. if you look at their mobility report compared to GA their reduction in mobility without an ordered stay in place is basically the same as GA with an ordered stay in place. So they are much more inclined to follow what they have been asked to do than many...

FWIW 05, I thought it was a great read, even if I disagreed with the conclusion.

There have been a number of articles with quotes from various AD's and here are the general takeaways. They really want to get a football season in (obviously they need any money they can get in a bad way) They will not play college football without fans (if it isn't considered to be safe for...

Here is my simple take. You can't keep everyone locked down forever, but you can't open too quickly - either scenario gets you to incredibly bad places. The only sane approach to me is to take a very measured approach. You have to open very slowly and methodically. Little bit at a time and...

Not so much https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/anger-in-sweden-as-elderly-pay-price-for-coronavirus-strategy They have a higher per capita death rate than the US and are starting to have serious problems in their nursing homes.

Good write-up but I disagree with it, You are seriously underestimating both the health and economic costs of trying to get to natural herd immunity. Let's use the low end estimate of 62%, (which is likely underestimating how many would need it). 62% of the 328M Americans is over 200,000,000...