I also think that turnovers will improve simply because we had a lot of them last season.
Last season, we only lost 11 fumbles - tied for lowest over last 6 seasons (by comparison, we lost 20 fumbles in both 2008 and 2010).
However, between 2008 and 2012, we averaged 7 interceptions (never more than 8, never less than 6).
But check this out: last year, we only attempted 203 passes (only the service academies and New Mexico attempted fewer) but threw a whopping 13 interceptions - that's more INTs than 66 other teams. I don't like the stat of total INTs per team since the number of attempts ranges from 150 to 750 so I calculate my own stat: the average number of attempts
per interception - the inverse of interception ratio - basically, how many passes are you going to throw before you throw a pick.
For all of the BCS, 80% of the teams are between 24 and 57.
The absolute worst team in the BCS threw a pick every 16 attempts: Georgia Tech.
This may *ahem* explain the disconnect between VL and CPJ about our run/pass ratio.