bennyjacket
Jolly Good Fellow
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I think its possible to be 6-7 and still make the ACC cg.
What is Brent Key’s floor, and what is his ceiling.
- Thread starter gdamian
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forensicbuzz
21st Century Throwback Dad
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Shiplap ceiling and ash floor.
Divisions are going away and they are taking the 2 best teams overall now so you’re gonna get need to get to 6-2 minimum to make it. Assuming you don’t completely flub the OOC and FCS game, I’d anticipate most teams who make it will be 9-3 or better.
In the ****show Coastal where you could go 1-3 in OOC and 6-0 in Division, you could realistically get in at 7-5. Or have the 2 teams ahead of you self-impose postseason bans like we did in 2012 (and we were a 2 minute drive away from winning that thing too).
JacketFan137
Banned
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i think 4-5 is the floor. 1 fcs tune up win and then finding 3 wins in the acc should be pretty easy considering we will end up getting some syracuses, boston colleges and duke type of games. as long as you don’t shoot yourself in the foot those are pretty easy wins.
ceiling i think playoffs isn’t impossible with 12. win the conference and we’re in or just get a good at large bid if we can take down either clemson or uga in the regular season. as far as winning it’s hard to say since i don’t think we’ll ever have the horses to handle 3 straight games against teams of uga, bama, ohio state etc. nothing is impossible and no one would have expected tcu to make it so maybe there’s a non zero chance
ceiling i think playoffs isn’t impossible with 12. win the conference and we’re in or just get a good at large bid if we can take down either clemson or uga in the regular season. as far as winning it’s hard to say since i don’t think we’ll ever have the horses to handle 3 straight games against teams of uga, bama, ohio state etc. nothing is impossible and no one would have expected tcu to make it so maybe there’s a non zero chance
85Escape
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Assuming this is a regular 12-game season, no post-season.
It would be better to throw out the high and low seasons first...as weird exception seasons always happen (injuries, hurricanes, forest fires that burn down opposing schools, etc.)
If you did that I would say the floor is 5 and the ceiling is 10, with 8 being the most frequent result.
Most years will be 7 - 9 wins, really good years 10 wins and the exceptional high years being 11 or 12.
Same on the bottom...if we end up playing our 3rd string freshman QB then 5 - 6 wins, but if that happens to also be the year that we lose our top five linemen to injury or have to play in another stadium due to a tornado, then 3 - 4.
Not a huge stretch, as this is probably true of all average P5 teams. I think to have 9 wins as the most frequent season you have to be perennial Top 25, and to have typical 10 win seasons you are perennial Top 10. This year there are five schools in the Top 25 with only 8 wins.
It would be better to throw out the high and low seasons first...as weird exception seasons always happen (injuries, hurricanes, forest fires that burn down opposing schools, etc.)
If you did that I would say the floor is 5 and the ceiling is 10, with 8 being the most frequent result.
Most years will be 7 - 9 wins, really good years 10 wins and the exceptional high years being 11 or 12.
Same on the bottom...if we end up playing our 3rd string freshman QB then 5 - 6 wins, but if that happens to also be the year that we lose our top five linemen to injury or have to play in another stadium due to a tornado, then 3 - 4.
Not a huge stretch, as this is probably true of all average P5 teams. I think to have 9 wins as the most frequent season you have to be perennial Top 25, and to have typical 10 win seasons you are perennial Top 10. This year there are five schools in the Top 25 with only 8 wins.
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GT33
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I think he'll breach the modern day GT ceiling of .575 win percentage (7.5 wins) and settle somewhere around 8-8.5
His low mark will always be 3, we've seen what happens when injuries decimaate a team. It can snowball and will likely on Key just like it does damn near everyone else.
His high mark is probably 12 or 13 with the advent of the 12 team playoff that will likely end up 16. That's 10 or 11 regular season wins, and ACC Championship game and a playoff win to get to the final 8 if that's how that's working.
His low mark will always be 3, we've seen what happens when injuries decimaate a team. It can snowball and will likely on Key just like it does damn near everyone else.
His high mark is probably 12 or 13 with the advent of the 12 team playoff that will likely end up 16. That's 10 or 11 regular season wins, and ACC Championship game and a playoff win to get to the final 8 if that's how that's working.