What are your measures for success with the new defense?

[iceeater1969]

We spend spring and all but last week of fall running the defense against our special offense. It requires many many reps to be efficient.
I thought every one knew this.

 

[AE 87]

We spend spring and all but last week of fall running the defense against our special offense. It requires many many reps to be efficient.
I thought every one knew this.

I'm not sure if serious, but I think 11 v. 11 is only a small part of our Spring and Fall camps. Much of the time is spent on position drills, pass skel's, and 7 v 7. Even so, I think Nate Woody shares Gary Patterson's attitude about the Triple Option.

So, I wouldn't say that we invest more in our offense than in our defense in that regard. Heck, we don't even give our offense its own coordinator.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...2750/gary-patterson-triple-option-tcu-defense

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Wow, three year average of 34.3 points per game given up even with fewer possession per game. I would really hate to see that number if the offense we run didn't "make it look better" by holding the ball an so long and eliminating an extra possession or two. Would we have been at 40 pts per game given up if we had a "normal" # of possession per game? Shudder!

Where did you get these numbers? Even if you add up the average of ALL scoring in the game, (to include opponents defensive scores), our three year average is 25.7 pts/gm. Our defense has actually surrendered an average of 25 pts/gm the last three years.

 

[vamosjackets]

I'm not sure if serious, but I think 11 v. 11 is only a small part of our Spring and Fall camps. Much of the time is spent on position drills, pass skel's, and 7 v 7. Even so, I think Nate Woody shares Gary Patterson's attitude about the Triple Option.

So, I wouldn't say that we invest more in our offense than in our defense in that regard. Heck, we don't even give our offense its own coordinator.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...2750/gary-patterson-triple-option-tcu-defense

Great article! Very interesting.

 

[stech81]

I would be happy when the opposing QB drops back to pass he doesn't have the time look up and down the field over and over. And we would learn that a TE can catch a pass.

 

[lv20gt]

What does "with how much our program invests into that one side of the ball" mean?

It means choosing a HC who not only is his own OC in terms of designing the offense but also calls the plays, who runs an offense that makes it hard to prepare the defense for because we lack things like a TE, even marginally pass blocking oriented OLmen (or coaches to help coach that), or QBs recruited to pass at all. It means a HC who's only strength recruiting is finding players that fit his system, a benefit that only helps the offense. It means keeping pretty much the same coaching staff on one side of the ball while changing the other half every couple of years.

So no, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect our offense, which is what our entire program has been built around, to be able to get to 27 against better teams. If we can't reasonably expect to get more than 3TDs against better teams then we shouldn't be running the offense we are because the trade offs aren't in our favor. We can get 21 a game with a standard offense with a head coach that is more recruiting oriented.

 

[AE 87]

It means choosing a HC who not only is his own OC in terms of designing the offense but also calls the plays, who runs an offense that makes it hard to prepare the defense for because we lack things like a TE, even marginally pass blocking oriented OLmen (or coaches to help coach that), or QBs recruited to pass at all. It means a HC who's only strength recruiting is finding players that fit his system, a benefit that only helps the offense. It means keeping pretty much the same coaching staff on one side of the ball while changing the other half every couple of years.

So no, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect our offense, which is what our entire program has been built around, to be able to get to 27 against better teams. If we can't reasonably expect to get more than 3TDs against better teams then we shouldn't be running the offense we are because the trade offs aren't in our favor. We can get 21 a game with a standard offense with a head coach that is more recruiting oriented.

LOL OK

 

[Oakland]

Since we are talking about our defense and this is off subject, I watched a replay of the 2001 GT vs Clemson game today. Late in the game Clemson had the ball and had something like 4th and 5 or 10 yards to go. We had the momentum. Clemson goes back to pass and we rush just four. Clemson kept their quarterback safe in the pocket. They throw a bomb and go ahead. All we had to do was stop them on 4th down (remember Miami). We battled back, but lost the game in overtime.

 

[slugboy]

Where did you get these numbers? Even if you add up the average of ALL scoring in the game, (to include opponents defensive scores), our three year average is 25.7 pts/gm. Our defense has actually surrendered an average of 25 pts/gm the last three years.

I think it’s from here, from me misreading a chart: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-points-per-game

It’s the 2017 scoring defense table, and “last 3” is last three games, not the last three seasons that I would have expected. Looked really fishy to me but i didn’t realize what they’d done until later.

2017: 28.2 ppg yielded
2016: 25.7 ppg yielded
2015: 27.5 ppg yielded

Still pretty bad.




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[Augusta_Jacket]

I think it’s from here, from me misreading a chart: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-points-per-game

It’s the 2017 scoring defense table, and “last 3” is last three games, not the last three seasons that I would have expected. Looked really fishy to me but i didn’t realize what they’d done until later.

2017: 28.2 ppg yielded
2016: 25.7 ppg yielded
2015: 27.5 ppg yielded

Still pretty bad.




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That actually makes sense. I hate judging on such small sample, but at least those numbers match up.

 

[AE 87]

Interesting look at Woody's D

https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...penn-state-blitz-stunt-confuse-trace-mcsorley

 

[Buzz*The*Plumber]

Interesting look at Woody's D

https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...penn-state-blitz-stunt-confuse-trace-mcsorley

Fascinating. Can't wait!

 

[Dustman]

People are putting sacks, QB hurries, turnovers and such as measurements. One I haven't seen in this thread is run defense. The most important stat historically for a unit (offense or defense) is running the ball. If you can run the ball and stop the other team from running the ball, you usually win. I'd like to be a team at or near the top of the conference in run defense (ypa - yards per attempt, I suppose would be the best stat there). I would think CNW's scheme is geared for that as well as pressuring the passer, so I'm optimistic on that.

Of course, again, ppd, ypp, dfei and these other things take that and all of the other things into it for a final result, so to keep it simple, I would just choose one or all of those to look at.

You nailed it. Stopping the run. I think that's why everyone is excited about Mitchell's ability in this system, but also why we are so concerned about the nose. CPJ has avoided any conversation about NT.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

I don't know what's best. DFEI and S&P+ defense both seem to be really good in getting the noise and gunk out (garbage time, downplaying weak opponents, …).
S&P+ had us as the #66 defense last year and DFEI had us as the #63 defense last year. I'm not going to beat myself up over the difference between 63 and 66. They're both middle of the pack, your defense won't be the thing that gets you to a bowl game numbers.
In DFEI (lower is better), we had a rating of 2.25 (#63) and went 4-6. Stanford had a DFEI of 2.24 (#62) and went 9-5. Michigan State had a DFEI of 1.64 (#25). Clemson was #1 at 0.83, UGA was #5 at 0.98, and VT and Miami were both top 15.
I made a chart. When you get around the top 10 or so, defenses don't gradually separate from the pack, they dramatically do. Same thing for the bottom 10 defenses. Between that, it's gradual improvements:
View attachment 3958

S&P+ is the same thing, just a little smoother. We're right in the middle on both. Not awful, but textbook mediocre:
View attachment 3959

You forgot to label your axises. -10 pts.

 

[dressedcheeseside]

Ability to score or prevent a score is, in my opinion, the best averaging stat and predictor of a good offense or defense. Points per game does not work due to the variability of possession numbers (hurry up versus grind it out). The second part of normalization is to compare when playing the same opponents or to adjust based on the competition you play.

If you want to understand why someone is good or bad, then you look into the details. Turnovers, TFL, hurries, passes defended percent, yards per run, and yards per pass, would tell you why you are good or bad on defense.

3rd down is not a great metric as we have seen you could have 70% stops on third down but what if 80% of first of 1st downs don’t require a 3rd down.

Where can we find the ATS and PAS stats?

 

[dressedcheeseside]

You nailed it. Stopping the run. I think that's why everyone is excited about Mitchell's ability in this system, but also why we are so concerned about the nose. CPJ has avoided any conversation about NT.

He did say Kyle has the starting spot nailed down, fwiw.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

How will you know whether the new D is successful year 1? Specific metrics, eye test, whole year stats, game-by-game stats, etc. Let's hear your position before the season starts.

I know it is not fair but Coach Woody has stepped into a difficult situation. It is entirely possible that this year's offense will be limited in big play ability resulting in more pressure on the defense to limit other teams to less, considerably less than the 27 or so points per game that had been the norm. Decreasing this to 24 or fewer points per game will be challenging. I personally do not think we have the playmakers to run up and down the field like we did in 2016 or 2014. Having a better defense across the board is imperative because the days of just outscoring people with a sledgehammer running game and big plays on the perimeter are not in the cards for this year. I will leave the statistical analysis to the math majors but constantly giving up scores at the end of the first half and surrendering fourth quarter leads will not get it done. I am hopeful but not really confident that our defense will be the game changer some believe it will be. Woody is a good coach and richly deserves this opportunity to be on the big stage so to speak. One way or the other, whether this year or down the road, I pray that Coach Johnson's never ending quest for the Holy Grail of defensive coordinators is finally at an end.

 

[Dustman]

He did say Kyle has the starting spot nailed down, fwiw.

Thanks. I must have missed that. It seems like when asked about the DL he only mentions Anree and Desmond. It's hard to hear the interview questions

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Interesting look at Woody's D

https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...penn-state-blitz-stunt-confuse-trace-mcsorley

Just want to point out that Woody had his CBs way off the LOS and back peddling at the snap on a 2nd and 8. Same on the 3rd and 5. Try not to roast him too much when he does that here.

 

[GTdragons]

Interesting look at Woody's D

https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...penn-state-blitz-stunt-confuse-trace-mcsorley

I cannot wait to see a GT defense who gets after the QB like that.


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