Week 0 Line

UgaBlows

UgaBlows

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MWBATL said:
Yes, you are correct. That is how the Vegas odds work. ESPN however does straight predictions, and they match the Vegas odds. It might just be the left-over from last season (after all, none of us know how good any team will be at this stage), or it may be that they are of the opinion our D isn't that much better. We'll all see in late August. Heck, ESPN says you should bet BIG on Georgia State getting the points the following week in our home opener against us. They give Georgia State a better chance of beating us than they give us of beating FSU.
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Vegas is wrong a fair amount of time, especially in early season games. Pretty much all of our big wins come as huge underdogs, it is what it is and we are way past DUE for a BIG one
 
BuzzStone

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UgaBlows said:
Vegas is wrong a fair amount of time, especially in early season games. Pretty much all of our big wins come as huge underdogs, it is what it is and we are way past DUE for a BIG one
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Vegas is almost never wrong. They adjust the line to try to get an even ammount of money bet on either side. Vegas wants 50/50 bets so they can make the money on the juice for the looser.
 

GetYourBuzzOn

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BuzzStone said:
Vegas is almost never wrong. They adjust the line to try to get an even ammount of money bet on either side. Vegas wants 50/50 bets so they can make the money on the juice for the looser.
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The idea that the books want 50/50 action is a misconception. The books are trying to win. The juice provides a nice ~4% advantage to ensure they win most of the time. The opening line moves are driven by profiled sharp bettors, not by volume of money. The lines will move in the "discovery" phase until it gets resistance on the other side from profiled sharp money. The only outliers to this are the extremely large handle events- usually only the Super Bowl and World Cup. In these instances the book may have to balance out liability on either side due to volume.
 
AUFC

AUFC

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Sports betting is the only place where Vegas is wrong thanks to market inefficiencies. Very easy to find positive expected value bets with computational power and APIs. You will never find a roulette table that gives players the edge, whether you're in Vegas, Atlantic City, NOLA, etc

Unfortunately the books also do not like players who win so they are understandably pretty quick to limit the betting size of folks who are placing EV+ bets.
 
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Tech Lawyer

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SOWEGA Jacket said:
The thing about defense is this - outside of the elite handful of teams like UGA, Bama, Mich, and a few others, EVERYONE struggles on defense. Yes, ours has been weak and has difficulty stopping anyone. But, 90% of teams are in the exact same position. The rules of the game combined with the offensive minds of this era have made defenses have a tough life. This isn’t a GT issue it’s an overall sport issue because they tweak rules to promote scoring. You simply can’t compare our defensive performance of today to years of the past. Remember that famous GT play where Marco crushed Shawn Moore and refused to grab his hand? That would be a 15 yard penalty today. Ken Swilling’s spearing of anyone over the middle would get him kicked out of a lot of games today.

GT is set pretty well compared to many of our competitors this season because the name of the game is offense. They won’t stop us and we won’t stop them. So, which QB, OLine, RB, and kicker do you trust more? Ours or theirs? I’d like to think every rep last year was just practice for this season. We have a lot of starters back and then add a few weapons like Blackburn and hopefully a worthwhile TE and we will be hard to stop. The question is, will FSU have a cohesive offensive unit who can out score a team returning everyone? We’ll see.
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I think your evaluation is spot on. FSU probably has what you would call a difference maker (Patrick Peyton) at defensive end. We may not have that kind of player at the present right now, but the hope is that collectively our guys will step up and make plays. We do have candidates to be that Derek Morgan type player, On offense however, FSU really has no idea what they have except that their RB room is good. Their offense will at times sputter. The analysts can all see this coming. If we just don't give DJ any long shots down the field, I think our front seven can bottle them up enough to put DJ in passing situations which I feel favors us. There is an opportunity to get 4-5 sacks and several INTs. I don't think the FSU OL can give DJ a clean pocket. Our interior guys will be bull rushing the OL right into DJ. We should make DJ very uncomfortable all afternoon.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

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Tech Lawyer said:
I think your evaluation is spot on. FSU probably has what you would call a difference maker (Patrick Peyton) at defensive end. We may not have that kind of player at the present right now, but the hope is that collectively our guys will step up and make plays. We do have candidates to be that Derek Morgan type player, On offense however, FSU really has no idea what they have except that their RB room is good. Their offense will at times sputter. The analysts can all see this coming. If we just don't give DJ any long shots down the field, I think our front seven can bottle them up enough to put DJ in passing situations which I feel favors us. There is an opportunity to get 4-5 sacks and several INTs. I don't think the FSU OL can give DJ a clean pocket. Our interior guys will be bull rushing the OL right into DJ. We should make DJ very uncomfortable all afternoon.
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I’m not sure about all that, but I’m fairly confident our offense could/may be one of the best in the ACC. So, for this game #1 of the 4 major units (FSU O and D, GT O and D), I have more faith in our offense to score enough points to win than I do in FSU’s. I have no clue on how good either teams will be on defense because defense means very little in this sport. If either team gives up multiple turnovers then they will lose. The key for GT’s season comes down to our offensive line. Our WR’s are solid, our starting RB is a stud, and our QB is a stud. If our OLine is legit then we will score on anyone. If not, Faulkner will have a long day.
 
UgaBlows

UgaBlows

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If we can run the ball successfully the we’ll be in this game all the way with a solid chance to win, early success on defense with a few stops instead of letting them score and getting into a hole early would be tremendously helpful. I pray that Coach Santucci is a real difference maker for our defense.
 
gtrower

gtrower

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Overseas games can always be wonky and I would have money on our staff/players to handle it better (gotta be a little carryover from 2016 in the AA?). Combine that with the turnover on their roster and the returning experience on ours for a Week 0 game and I’d absolutely be on +13.5 and/or whatever the moneyline is.

I’ve seen an undercurrent of CFB fans on other boards / twitter who are thinking similar. I think most casuals still associate GT with the cGC years and didn’t really notice that 7 wins with the schedule we had last year was fairly impressive. But some people took notice. I think we’ll be a sneaky popular upset pick leading up to the game.

All it really takes is their rebuilt DL to be a little disjointed for us to establish a dominant run game and put a lot of pressure on a transfer QB who was hot/cold previously in this conference.
 
BuzzStone

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GetYourBuzzOn said:
The idea that the books want 50/50 action is a misconception. The books are trying to win. The juice provides a nice ~4% advantage to ensure they win most of the time. The opening line moves are driven by profiled sharp bettors, not by volume of money. The lines will move in the "discovery" phase until it gets resistance on the other side from profiled sharp money. The only outliers to this are the extremely large handle events- usually only the Super Bowl and World Cup. In these instances the book may have to balance out liability on either side due to volume.
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This is just wrong. If they don't have money even on both sides of the line then they risk losing millions. if they have it 50/50 they ensure they make millions with the 10% juice.
 
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