Way too Early 2023 Predictions

[iceeater1969]

Lol I’m not a troll I’m a Penn State fan also and we had a DC name Brent Pry and I accidentally put pry instead of Key lol. Trust me I know Ga Tech football. I’m also on a Penn St forum and I’m use to typing Brent Pry

I am legend for typos- sovi (intentional typo) knew it was a whoops.

Agree w you that we can count on Key having solid plan and effort.

Hoping we see better player speed and strength

Plus we need the oc to make better in game coaching adjustments.

 

[gdamian]

vs. Louisville- 0.7
South Carolina State- 1.0
@ Ole Miss- 0.2
@ Wake Forest- 0.6
Bowling Green- 0.9
@ Miami- 0.5
Boston College- 0.8
North Carolina- 0.4
@ Virginia- 0.6
@ Clemson- 0.2
Syracuse- 0.7
UGAg- 0.1

6.7 expected wins imo.

Like your optimism, but I don't see us as favorites on the road @WF (.4) and @Virgina (.5) and we won't be 50/50 on the road @Miami(.4) .7 Louisville is high (.6) Still light years behind UGA (0).

Six wins would be progress. Seven wins involves winning NC at home or picking up a road win.

 

[UgaBlows]

Like your optimism, but I don't see us as favorites on the road @WF (.4) and @Virgina (.5) and we won't be 50/50 on the road @Miami(.4) .7 Louisville is high (.6) Still light years behind UGA (0).

Six wins would be progress. Seven wins involves winning NC at home or picking up a road win.

Keep in mind that against the odds we beat Pitt and UNC on the road last year, WF and UVA are definitely road games that we could win. I just hope Coach Key can keep the surprise wins going and eliminate the wtf home losses next season

 

[billga99]

Keep in mind that against the odds we beat Pitt and UNC on the road last year, WF and UVA are definitely road games that we could win. I just hope Coach Key can keep the surprise wins going and eliminate the wtf home losses next season

We lost a lot of talent on the defense. White who is a potential 1st round pick, 2 very productive Linebackers, and a CB who transferred. I just don't see any replacements for those 4 departures. I think a lot of Key's success was a much more productive defense. I am not sure we have the talent to repeat that effort.

 

[Blue&Gold1034]

We lost a lot of talent on the defense. White who is a potential 1st round pick, 2 very productive Linebackers, and a CB who transferred. I just don't see any replacements for those 4 departures. I think a lot of Key's success was a much more productive defense. I am not sure we have the talent to repeat that effort.

Tatum can step up to fill in one of the holes at LB. He played well when Thomas got ejected from the games due to targeting. As for the secondary, plenty of guys rotated and got meaningful snaps last year so I think there will be someone who steps into the role left by Walton. I cant really tell about the defensive line since not many people outside of White jump off the screen last year, but with Coach Coleman coming back, maybe we see improvement.

 

[Root4GT]

Tatum can step up to fill in one of the holes at LB. He played well when Thomas got ejected from the games due to targeting. As for the secondary, plenty of guys rotated and got meaningful snaps last year so I think there will be someone who steps into the role left by Walton. I cant really tell about the defensive line since not many people outside of White jump off the screen last year, but with Coach Coleman coming back, maybe we see improvement.

We actually were better on the D line when Coleman was at Much St. white had a lot to do with that though. There are no players who are in his class on our D line. All the D line need to play much better this year

 

[UgaBlows]

We lost a lot of talent on the defense. White who is a potential 1st round pick, 2 very productive Linebackers, and a CB who transferred. I just don't see any replacements for those 4 departures. I think a lot of Key's success was a much more productive defense. I am not sure we have the talent to repeat that effort.

Hopefully WF and others lost just as much or more. I think our QB play, OL and offense will step up and be markedly better.

 

[Southern psu fan]

We got a very good LB’r transferring in from Minnesota that will make some noise on defense. I’ve watched the kid play, he’s tough.

 

[g0lftime]

Hopefully WF and others lost just as much or more. I think our QB play, OL and offense will step up and be markedly better.

They lost a really good QB that transferred to Notre Dame. They have a decent RB named Ellison but not sure if he is still there. We will face that delayed RPO which is a real test for our linebackers.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Hi all, first time post here. I posted stuff like this on the Hive last year, but they seem to prefer discussing matters concerning former player's religious faith vs. GT athletics these days so I'll bring the conversation over here.

I have been a profitable recreational sports bettor the past three years, using a quantitative methodology based heavily in analytics and advanced stats. One of my most important tools in betting the regular season win market (and weekly sides for that matter) has been Bill Connelly's SP+ projections, located behind a paywall on ESPN+ or here (for historical ratings, at least). I use a weighted combination of different ranking systems for my weekly side projections. Through statistical analysis I've found that SP+ are most predictive for Regular Season Win totals, however.

Generally speaking, SP+ rankings are intended to predictive and forward facing, reflecting opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Preseason SP+ projections are based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production - accounts for transfers and attrition. The combo of the previous year's SP+ and adjustments based on returning production make up almost half of the projection's formula.
2. Recent recruiting, including transfers - makes up for ~ 1/3 of the formula
3. Recent history - uses 2-4 years of info from previous seasons to account for overall program health. This is where any adjustments due to coaching changes are made. Makes up about 15% of the formula.

GT finished 2022 with an SP+ of -11.8. The good news is that with the returning production, transfers, coaching change, etc our preseason rating for '23 is -2.4. I was expecting our improvement to be around 7/8 points, so this was a pleasant surprise. I've linked the entire Preseason SP+ and Returning Production numbers here for your reference.

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. I have found that the avg HFA for the past few years is around 1.8; you can get super granular and assign different HFA factors for different teams, but I won't do that here, and GT's factor would be lower than 1.8. Sigh.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Without any further adieu, here is our 2023 Opponent / Projected Point Spread / Implied Win %:

Louisville (neutral site) / +12.5 / 18.05%
SC State / -30 / 97.93%
@ Ole Miss / +21 / 6.83%
Bowling Green / -21.5 / 93.75%
UGA / +32.5 / 0.53%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
UNC / +13.5 / 16.72%
@ Miami / +13 / 17.39%
@ UVA / -.5 / 50%
BC / -2.5 / 54.13%
Syracuse / +3 / 42.37%
@ Wake / +8.5 / 25%

Projected Win Total of 4.27 wins. I would expect the betting market to open up between 4.5 and 5.5 Regular Season Wins for GT. I think our floor is 2 wins and our ceiling is 6 wins.

At any rate, sorry for the long post and I look forward to chatting football with y'all!

 

[99jacket]

Ohio State may win it all. They have that entire offense coming back and continue to recruit elite level WRs. They are becoming WR U

Except for the QB and that’s a big piece to replace.

 

[iceeater1969]

Hi all, first time post here. I posted stuff like this on the Hive last year, but they seem to prefer discussing matters concerning former player's religious faith vs. GT athletics these days so I'll bring the conversation over here.

I have been a profitable recreational sports bettor the past three years, using a quantitative methodology based heavily in analytics and advanced stats. One of my most important tools in betting the regular season win market (and weekly sides for that matter) has been Bill Connelly's SP+ projections, located behind a paywall on ESPN+ or here (for historical ratings, at least). I use a weighted combination of different ranking systems for my weekly side projections. Through statistical analysis I've found that SP+ are most predictive for Regular Season Win totals, however.

Generally speaking, SP+ rankings are intended to predictive and forward facing, reflecting opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Preseason SP+ projections are based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production - accounts for transfers and attrition. The combo of the previous year's SP+ and adjustments based on returning production make up almost half of the projection's formula.
2. Recent recruiting, including transfers - makes up for ~ 1/3 of the formula
3. Recent history - uses 2-4 years of info from previous seasons to account for overall program health. This is where any adjustments due to coaching changes are made. Makes up about 15% of the formula.

GT finished 2022 with an SP+ of -11.8. The good news is that with the returning production, transfers, coaching change, etc our preseason rating for '23 is -2.4. I was expecting our improvement to be around 7/8 points, so this was a pleasant surprise. I've linked the entire Preseason SP+ and Returning Production numbers here for your reference.

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. I have found that the avg HFA for the past few years is around 1.8; you can get super granular and assign different HFA factors for different teams, but I won't do that here, and GT's factor would be lower than 1.8. Sigh.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Without any further adieu, here is our 2023 Opponent / Projected Point Spread / Implied Win %:

Louisville (neutral site) / +12.5 / 18.05%
SC State / -30 / 97.93%
@ Ole Miss / +21 / 6.83%
Bowling Green / -21.5 / 93.75%
UGA / +32.5 / 0.53%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
UNC / +13.5 / 16.72%
@ Miami / +13 / 17.39%
@ UVA / -.5 / 50%
BC / -2.5 / 54.13%
Syracuse / +3 / 42.37%
@ Wake / +8.5 / 25%

Projected Win Total of 4.27 wins. I would expect the betting market to open up between 4.5 and 5.5 Regular Season Wins for GT. I think our floor is 2 wins and our ceiling is 6 wins.

At any rate, sorry for the long post and I look forward to chatting football with y'all!

When i tap on your handle, it says you are new poster and this is your first posting.
What a great way to start!!.
This is best post of the year. It starts with facts that are "Firm" . It continues with 'Fair" logic that cuts both ways. The whole tone is "Friendly".

Content is King with me.

This is first time I have ever push the FOLLOW BUTTON

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

When i tap on your handle, it says you are new poster and this is your first posting.
What a great way to start!!.
This is best post of the year. It starts with facts that are "Firm" . It continues with 'Fair" logic that cuts both ways. The whole tone is "Friendly".

Content is King with me.

This is first time I have ever push the FOLLOW BUTTON

Thanks Iceeater! I'm excited to dig in with y'all this year and have some fun talking factually about our coaching staff's decisions in high leverage situations, our offensive scheme, and of course uniforms all the while maintaining an unhealthy emotionally attachment to the white and gold!

 

[forensicbuzz]

Hi all, first time post here. I posted stuff like this on the Hive last year, but they seem to prefer discussing matters concerning former player's religious faith vs. GT athletics these days so I'll bring the conversation over here.

I have been a profitable recreational sports bettor the past three years, using a quantitative methodology based heavily in analytics and advanced stats. One of my most important tools in betting the regular season win market (and weekly sides for that matter) has been Bill Connelly's SP+ projections, located behind a paywall on ESPN+ or here (for historical ratings, at least). I use a weighted combination of different ranking systems for my weekly side projections. Through statistical analysis I've found that SP+ are most predictive for Regular Season Win totals, however.

Generally speaking, SP+ rankings are intended to predictive and forward facing, reflecting opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Preseason SP+ projections are based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production - accounts for transfers and attrition. The combo of the previous year's SP+ and adjustments based on returning production make up almost half of the projection's formula.
2. Recent recruiting, including transfers - makes up for ~ 1/3 of the formula
3. Recent history - uses 2-4 years of info from previous seasons to account for overall program health. This is where any adjustments due to coaching changes are made. Makes up about 15% of the formula.

GT finished 2022 with an SP+ of -11.8. The good news is that with the returning production, transfers, coaching change, etc our preseason rating for '23 is -2.4. I was expecting our improvement to be around 7/8 points, so this was a pleasant surprise. I've linked the entire Preseason SP+ and Returning Production numbers here for your reference.

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. I have found that the avg HFA for the past few years is around 1.8; you can get super granular and assign different HFA factors for different teams, but I won't do that here, and GT's factor would be lower than 1.8. Sigh.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Without any further adieu, here is our 2023 Opponent / Projected Point Spread / Implied Win %:

Louisville (neutral site) / +12.5 / 18.05%
SC State / -30 / 97.93%
@ Ole Miss / +21 / 6.83%
Bowling Green / -21.5 / 93.75%
UGA / +32.5 / 0.53%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
UNC / +13.5 / 16.72%
@ Miami / +13 / 17.39%
@ UVA / -.5 / 50%
BC / -2.5 / 54.13%
Syracuse / +3 / 42.37%
@ Wake / +8.5 / 25%

Projected Win Total of 4.27 wins. I would expect the betting market to open up between 4.5 and 5.5 Regular Season Wins for GT. I think our floor is 2 wins and our ceiling is 6 wins.

At any rate, sorry for the long post and I look forward to chatting football with y'all!

Can you run that same analysis for last season? I'd be interested to see where the probability hit for UNC, Pitt, Duke, and Virginia.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

Can you run that same analysis for last season? I'd be interested to see where the probability hit for UNC, Pitt, Duke, and Virginia.

You want preseason, or the implied probability the week that we played those games?

 

[billga99]

Hi all, first time post here. I posted stuff like this on the Hive last year, but they seem to prefer discussing matters concerning former player's religious faith vs. GT athletics these days so I'll bring the conversation over here.

I have been a profitable recreational sports bettor the past three years, using a quantitative methodology based heavily in analytics and advanced stats. One of my most important tools in betting the regular season win market (and weekly sides for that matter) has been Bill Connelly's SP+ projections, located behind a paywall on ESPN+ or here (for historical ratings, at least). I use a weighted combination of different ranking systems for my weekly side projections. Through statistical analysis I've found that SP+ are most predictive for Regular Season Win totals, however.

Generally speaking, SP+ rankings are intended to predictive and forward facing, reflecting opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Preseason SP+ projections are based on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production - accounts for transfers and attrition. The combo of the previous year's SP+ and adjustments based on returning production make up almost half of the projection's formula.
2. Recent recruiting, including transfers - makes up for ~ 1/3 of the formula
3. Recent history - uses 2-4 years of info from previous seasons to account for overall program health. This is where any adjustments due to coaching changes are made. Makes up about 15% of the formula.

GT finished 2022 with an SP+ of -11.8. The good news is that with the returning production, transfers, coaching change, etc our preseason rating for '23 is -2.4. I was expecting our improvement to be around 7/8 points, so this was a pleasant surprise. I've linked the entire Preseason SP+ and Returning Production numbers here for your reference.

You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread. I have found that the avg HFA for the past few years is around 1.8; you can get super granular and assign different HFA factors for different teams, but I won't do that here, and GT's factor would be lower than 1.8. Sigh.

Once I get my projected point spread I then convert to the Money Line by using a calculator powered by a ton of historical data. Convert the Money Line to implied probability, then sum up the probability for the projected win totals.

Without any further adieu, here is our 2023 Opponent / Projected Point Spread / Implied Win %:

Louisville (neutral site) / +12.5 / 18.05%
SC State / -30 / 97.93%
@ Ole Miss / +21 / 6.83%
Bowling Green / -21.5 / 93.75%
UGA / +32.5 / 0.53%
@ Clemson / +24 / 4.64%
UNC / +13.5 / 16.72%
@ Miami / +13 / 17.39%
@ UVA / -.5 / 50%
BC / -2.5 / 54.13%
Syracuse / +3 / 42.37%
@ Wake / +8.5 / 25%

Projected Win Total of 4.27 wins. I would expect the betting market to open up between 4.5 and 5.5 Regular Season Wins for GT. I think our floor is 2 wins and our ceiling is 6 wins.

At any rate, sorry for the long post and I look forward to chatting football with y'all!

I guess the two that really surprise me are Louisville being a 12.5 point favorite at a neutral site which is Atlanta and Syracuse being a 3 point favorite at Bobby Dodd. With the typical 3 point advantage for being a home team, being rated 6 points worse than Syracuse is surprising. The others are in line with what I would expect based on what I know now.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I guess the two that really surprise me are Louisville being a 12.5 point favorite at a neutral site which is Atlanta and Syracuse being a 3 point favorite at Bobby Dodd. With the typical 3 point advantage for being a home team, being rated 6 points worse than Syracuse is surprising. The others are in line with what I would expect based on what I know now.

Lots of starters returning most likely.

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

I guess the two that really surprise me are Louisville being a 12.5 point favorite at a neutral site which is Atlanta and Syracuse being a 3 point favorite at Bobby Dodd. With the typical 3 point advantage for being a home team, being rated 6 points worse than Syracuse is surprising. The others are in line with what I would expect based on what I know now.

Louisville is expected to have a top 20 defense and upgraded their head coach (I think it is a big upgrade- Brohm did a hell of a job at Purdue). They're 36th overall in preseason SP+.

Syracuse is returning 73% of their production, which is significant (the mean is 62%). They will more than likely improve from '22. Also, the universal HFA these days is between 1.6 and 1.8 (I use 1.8). However, GT's actual HFA would more than likely be lower than 1.8.

Keep in mind that these are just look ahead point spreads. Obviously injuries will influence the lines. And of course the NCAAF market is pretty efficient so the money will shape the line to where it needs to be.

 

[iceeater1969]

GYBO,
Keep in mind each year at this time we all have already have picked a number of wins and losses which we expect for a good, ok, and bad season.

In the Johnson years we always bested the experts preseason ranking. In TFG time we we have reverted to the mean - we lost way more than we expected.

We assigned games to W or L to get the proper results. Your method seems to have too much math.

Up above i picked my list of games. My acceptable year is start slow to ok and finish strong. That means way more to me than the number of WL.

So I booked Louisville as a home loss and got blasted by the folks that want a fast start. I think we all know if we best ( i mean beat their axx) Louisville we can be very good by end of year.

We have sucked for so long, its not logical for us start off winning toss up games. 7-5 & and finish strong ( clem Uga competitive ) would be very good. Now if u can make the prediction math say that . ..

 

[GetYourBuzzOn]

GYBO,
Keep in mind each year at this time we all have already have picked a number of wins and losses which we expect for a good, ok, and bad season.

In the Johnson years we always bested the experts preseason ranking. In TFG time we we have reverted to the mean - we lost way more than we expected.

We assigned games to W or L to get the proper results. Your method seems to have too much math.

Up above i picked my list of games. My acceptable year is start slow to ok and finish strong. That means way more to me than the number of WL.

So I booked Louisville as a home loss and got blasted by the folks that want a fast start. I think we all know if we best ( i mean beat their axx) Louisville we can be very good by end of year.

We have sucked for so long, its not logical for us start off winning toss up games. 7-5 & and finish strong ( clem Uga competitive ) would be very good. Now if u can make the prediction math say that . ..

LOL, I'll try to make the predictions get better, but you know what they say- the numbers don't lie!

I agree with you- there are other things this year that are more important than the W / L record. I would like to see a well disciplined, well coached team on the field. I would like to see players giving their maximum effort, with no discussion about who quit on the team and refused to go into a game. I would like to see a forward thinking, innovative offense that takes calculated risks. I would like to see player development. I can go on and on, but I have a feeling that most of the folks who care about GT football will say the same thing.

Give me 5+ wins this year, with some developing skill players on Offense to be excited about. Give me a Defense that played with the same fire that our '22 squad did for the last 5 games. Give me a coaching staff that shows that they have a plan and can make adjustments on the fly. That would make a successful season, in my opinion.