Vegas win totals updated. We aren't last!!!

[CuseJacket]

@boger2337, I don't think those are Vegas odds. As far as I can tell, those are odds calculated by a website call Action Network that does some type of data analysis to predict win totals: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf...e-win-total-championship-odds-notre-dame-2020

When I look for sportsbooks that posted updated odds following the new schedule release, they look a lot like the pre-Covid odds adjusted for the new 10 game schedule i.e., no significant variances: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/n...otals-2020-acc-big12-sec-over-unders-betting/

Georgia Tech went from o/u of 3 down to 2.5. Miami went from 9 to 7.5. Virginia Tech from 8.5 to 7.5. Clemson from 11.5 to 10.5. etc. etc. etc. Unfortunately, we are last.

 

[305jacket]

@boger2337, I don't think those are Vegas odds. As far as I can tell, those are odds calculated by a website call Action Network that does some type of data analysis to predict win totals: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf...e-win-total-championship-odds-notre-dame-2020

When I look for sportsbooks that posted updated odds following the new schedule release, they look a lot like the pre-Covid odds adjusted for the new 10 game schedule i.e., no significant variances: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/n...otals-2020-acc-big12-sec-over-unders-betting/

Georgia Tech went from o/u of 3 down to 2.5. Miami went from 9 to 7.5. Virginia Tech from 8.5 to 7.5. Clemson from 11.5 to 10.5. etc. etc. etc. Unfortunately, we are last.

This is correct. That screenshot is not any type of vegas odds as you can see there is no moneyline associated to the O/U and a hard number.

That is just a single model being pushed by action network, you can leverage that model if you want to against the actual lines set by Vegas if you trust it. There seem to be some variances, but I tend to go with the Pros in the sportsbook and not the ones writing articles.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

You trust us to win 3 right now?

We got a big break dropping UNC, Virginia Tech, UGA, and UVA and picking up BC, Syracuse, and Louisville? We still have Clemson and Notre Dame and lose a sure win with Gardner Webb but we should win at least three or four. Some people are saying Louisville will be tough but they won a lot of close games last year that they might not get so lucky on this year. Duke, NC State, BC, and Syracuse are all winnable and who knows what will happen with FSU. Unlike some, I see Miami, UCF, Clemson, Pitt, and Notre Dame as pretty formidable. We will be fortunate to win one of those. It is entirely possible that the entire season will not be played and even if it is it will forever have an * beside it. Just enjoy the ride...its all good.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

@boger2337, I don't think those are Vegas odds. As far as I can tell, those are odds calculated by a website call Action Network that does some type of data analysis to predict win totals: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf...e-win-total-championship-odds-notre-dame-2020

When I look for sportsbooks that posted updated odds following the new schedule release, they look a lot like the pre-Covid odds adjusted for the new 10 game schedule i.e., no significant variances: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/n...otals-2020-acc-big12-sec-over-unders-betting/

Georgia Tech went from o/u of 3 down to 2.5. Miami went from 9 to 7.5. Virginia Tech from 8.5 to 7.5. Clemson from 11.5 to 10.5. etc. etc. etc. Unfortunately, we are last.

Based upon last year, I can't say I blame them. This team is still very much a work in progress. To improve upon our three wins last year, we must improve line play on both sides of the ball. We will go as far as our play in the trenches take us.

 

[swarmer]

Hard for me to see 4 wins in an 11 game season w/ no cupcakes when all 3 of our wins last year felt like miracles.

FWIW I got burned betting o3.5 last year (FYOU Citadel)

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

We got a big break dropping UNC, Virginia Tech, UGA, and UVA and picking up BC, Syracuse, and Louisville? We still have Clemson and Notre Dame and lose a sure win with Gardner Webb but we should win at least three or four. Some people are saying Louisville will be tough but they won a lot of close games last year that they might not get so lucky on this year. Duke, NC State, BC, and Syracuse are all winnable and who knows what will happen with FSU. Unlike some, I see Miami, UCF, Clemson, Pitt, and Notre Dame as pretty formidable. We will be fortunate to win one of those. It is entirely possible that the entire season will not be played and even if it is it will forever have an * beside it. Just enjoy the ride...its all good.

I posted that "Duke, NC State, BC, and Syracuse are all winnable..." Unfortunately, with the margin of error so narrow with this team, they might be "loseable" sic as well. See, I invented a word.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Hard for me to see 4 wins in an 11 game season w/ no cupcakes when all 3 of our wins last year felt like miracles.

FWIW I got burned betting o3.5 last year (FYOU Citadel)

This is not last year's team. Have faith in the coaching staff and the system.

 

[JacketOff]

I posted that "Duke, NC State, BC, and Syracuse are all winnable..." Unfortunately, with the margin of error so narrow with this team, they might be "loseable" sic as well. See, I invented a word.

I think Duke, BC, and Syracuse are 3 games Tech should win.

NC State, Pitt, and Louisville are 3 games I could see going either way.

Miami, FSU, and UCF are 3 that I think Tech is probably a slight underdog. Sure you could argue that all 3 of those games belong in the “either way” category, but based purely on talent Miami and FSU have a decent advantage even though neither have done anything with it. UCF I was really in between with, as before Covid I thought that would be one of the more winnable games on the 12 game schedule, but that was also when the schedule was much tougher, so I don’t really know what to make of that game.

Then obviously you have the 2 long shot games. I really wish the ND would have been able to go along as scheduled at MBS, because I thought there might be enough “juice” to pull the upset. Much less optimistic with the current state of things. Clemson... well. Hopefully all of the QBs get some work in.

I think 3-8 is the floor. 4 or 5 wins would be respectable, and 6 or more is pretty impressive and hopefully enough to build enough hype to reel in an electric 2022 class.

 

[CuseJacket]

I think Duke, BC, and Syracuse are 3 games Tech should win.

NC State, Pitt, and Louisville are 3 games I could see going either way.

Miami, FSU, and UCF are 3 that I think Tech is probably a slight underdog. Sure you could argue that all 3 of those games belong in the “either way” category, but based purely on talent Miami and FSU have a decent advantage even though neither have done anything with it. UCF I was really in between with, as before Covid I thought that would be one of the more winnable games on the 12 game schedule, but that was also when the schedule was much tougher, so I don’t really know what to make of that game.

Then obviously you have the 2 long shot games. I really wish the ND would have been able to go along as scheduled at MBS, because I thought there might be enough “juice” to pull the upset. Much less optimistic with the current state of things. Clemson... well. Hopefully all of the QBs get some work in.

I think 3-8 is the floor. 4 or 5 wins would be respectable, and 6 or more is pretty impressive and hopefully enough to build enough hype to reel in an electric 2022 class.

Syracuse has been better than us 2 years in a row, we're playing at their place, and they have a returning starter at QB (elite 11 QB, for those who think that means something once they reach college). We will be a dog.

 

[swarmer]

I think Duke, BC, and Syracuse are 3 games Tech should win.

NC State, Pitt, and Louisville are 3 games I could see going either way.

Miami, FSU, and UCF are 3 that I think Tech is probably a slight underdog. Sure you could argue that all 3 of those games belong in the “either way” category, but based purely on talent Miami and FSU have a decent advantage even though neither have done anything with it. UCF I was really in between with, as before Covid I thought that would be one of the more winnable games on the 12 game schedule, but that was also when the schedule was much tougher, so I don’t really know what to make of that game.

Then obviously you have the 2 long shot games. I really wish the ND would have been able to go along as scheduled at MBS, because I thought there might be enough “juice” to pull the upset. Much less optimistic with the current state of things. Clemson... well. Hopefully all of the QBs get some work in.

I think 3-8 is the floor. 4 or 5 wins would be respectable, and 6 or more is pretty impressive and hopefully enough to build enough hype to reel in an electric 2022 class.

Why should we beat Duke? They’ve kicked our *** for the better part of a decade.

 

[JacketOff]

Why should we beat Duke? They’ve kicked our *** for the better part of a decade.

The better part of a decade? They’ve won 6 games over the last 20 years. Just so happens 5 of those games have come in the last 6 years. Even still, we have just as much talent as Duke. They’ve got a backup QB ready to start that’s proved just as much as any of our QBs: nothing. Duke is easily one of the most winnable games on the schedule.

 

[4shotB]

Why should we beat Duke? They’ve kicked our *** for the better part of a decade.

Yuuchhhh This is something I never, ever expected to read or hear about our football program when I was a student.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I think Duke, BC, and Syracuse are 3 games Tech should win.

NC State, Pitt, and Louisville are 3 games I could see going either way.

Miami, FSU, and UCF are 3 that I think Tech is probably a slight underdog. Sure you could argue that all 3 of those games belong in the “either way” category, but based purely on talent Miami and FSU have a decent advantage even though neither have done anything with it. UCF I was really in between with, as before Covid I thought that would be one of the more winnable games on the 12 game schedule, but that was also when the schedule was much tougher, so I don’t really know what to make of that game.

Then obviously you have the 2 long shot games. I really wish the ND would have been able to go along as scheduled at MBS, because I thought there might be enough “juice” to pull the upset. Much less optimistic with the current state of things. Clemson... well. Hopefully all of the QBs get some work in.

I think 3-8 is the floor. 4 or 5 wins would be respectable, and 6 or more is pretty impressive and hopefully enough to build enough hype to reel in an electric 2022 class.

FWIW which is not much, that Athlon's coaches' comments on NC State were pretty pointed. One guy flatly said that job (meaning NC State) is the one most coaches around the ACC expect to open up next year Ouch! Pitt is a team they, the coaches, gripe a lot about. One guy said (paraphrasing from memory here) "They (Pitt) try to fight you before the game, during the game and after the game. They commit personal fouls, and try to goad you by holding and so forth". The coaches all complained that Pitt's team is reflective of its coach. Coach Nad is the one goading his team to do that stuff. IIWII The coaches in the AAC, were highly complimentary of UCF. Good talent, well coached, they don't ask the quarterback to do everything. A well balanced attack that had something like 500 yards a game total offense. That game is not a good matchup for Tech. If we fall behind it is over. I know Louisville exceeded expectations last year, hats off to Coach Satterfield but I wonder if that is a team that could take a step back. The coaches all said that the talent at Louisville is pretty mediocre and they had a lot of balls bounce their way last year. We will see.