Upcoming slate of ACC defenses

CuseJacket

CuseJacket

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Our next 5 games in order are: vs Clemson, @ Boston College, vs Notre Dame, vs Pittsburgh, @ Miami

Here are the ACC defensive standings, ranked by points allowed per game:
1602611766406.png


We are in for a big test. We have yet to play any of the ACC"s top 7 defenses. While that is measured by points/game and not as good as ppd not nor SOS-adjusted, it's a proxy.

So what are your expectations of our offense over the next 5?

Mine in a nutshell: All the first 4 game graphics and headlines celebrating individual and team stats, the current rate of ACC Rookie of the Week awards, etc are nice, but they're about to get normalized. That does not necessarily mean the offense is bad, but it's about to be put into context.

Fortunately we have one game under our belt without ridiculous turnovers. If we can minimize those going forward, I'll be pleased, regardless of yardage output. But I'm not expecting the team to come out the other end of this slate unscathed and our successive 400+ yds/game clip will likely end.
 

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CuseJacket said:
Our next 5 games in order are: vs Clemson, @ Boston College, vs Notre Dame, vs Pittsburgh, @ Miami

Here are the ACC defensive standings, ranked by points allowed per game:
View attachment 9240

We are in for a big test. We have yet to play any of the ACC"s top 7 defenses. While that is measured by points/game and not as good as ppd not nor SOS-adjusted, it's a proxy.

So what are your expectations of our offense over the next 5?

Mine in a nutshell: All the first 4 game graphics and headlines celebrating individual and team stats, the current rate of ACC Rookie of the Week awards, etc are nice, but they're about to get normalized. That does not necessarily mean the offense is bad, but it's about to be put into context.

Fortunately we have one game under our belt without ridiculous turnovers. If we can minimize those going forward, I'll be pleased, regardless of yardage output. But I'm not expecting the team to come out the other end of this slate unscathed and our successive 400+ yds/game clip will likely end.
Click to expand...

Hot take contrarian view:
1) Clemson opponents (Wake Forest, Citadel, Virginia, Miami) only include 1 strong team (Miami).
* Wake Forest is winless against FBS teams.
* Virginia's only FBS win is hapless Duke.
* Citadel is, well, Citadel.

2) Notre Dame's ACC wins are last place teams Duke and Florida State.
3) Pittsburgh hasn't beat a team with a winning record yet.
4) Boston College hasn't beat a team with a winning record yet.

My opinion is that we kind of all know what we're facing - none of these teams are bad. We could go winless. But at the same time, the season is still early enough that the stats on the top level don't tell the whole story (eg Notre Dame has only played 2 games).

I think Clemson will be a bear. Miami will be most of a bear. Notre Dame is still an unknown - their 2 games were beating hapless Duke by 14 points and beating hapless Florida State by 16 points. Duke was a 4 point game with 10 minutes left. Florida State was a 1 score game going into the 4th quarter started. Pittsburgh and Boston College remind me of Syracuse and Louisville - reasonable teams that will be coin flips depending on how we play.
 
CuseJacket

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bwelbo said:
Hot take contrarian view:
1) Clemson opponents (Wake Forest, Citadel, Virginia, Miami) only include 1 strong team (Miami).
* Wake Forest is winless against FBS teams.
* Virginia's only FBS win is hapless Duke.
* Citadel is, well, Citadel.

2) Notre Dame's ACC wins are last place teams Duke and Florida State.
3) Pittsburgh hasn't beat a team with a winning record yet.
4) Boston College hasn't beat a team with a winning record yet.

My opinion is that we kind of all know what we're facing - none of these teams are bad. We could go winless. But at the same time, the season is still early enough that the stats on the top level don't tell the whole story (eg Notre Dame has only played 2 games).

I think Clemson will be a bear. Miami will be most of a bear. Notre Dame is still an unknown - their 2 games were beating hapless Duke by 14 points and beating hapless Florida State by 16 points. Duke was a 4 point game with 10 minutes left. Florida State was a 1 score game going into the 4th quarter started. Pittsburgh and Boston College remind me of Syracuse and Louisville - reasonable teams that will be coin flips depending on how we play.
Click to expand...
Your post is about our opponents as a whole and not their defenses specifically. So while I agree with your take, I'm honing in on expectations for our offense.

We are #11 in points per game offensively, and that includes games against 2 of the 4 worst ACC defenses by that same measure. It'll arguably be tougher sledding for Sims and co each of the next 5 games when compared to our first 4.

It's never as good or as bad as it seems.
 
gtrower

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That graphic says Duke has played 6 games in 5 weeks. Cuse/FSU look weird as well.

Also think it’s better to look at conference only stats which is an option on the ACC site. Not only was our OOC game the only remotely respectable opponent in the conference, it was one of the more potent offenses in the country the last few years.
 

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CuseJacket said:
Your post is about our opponents as a whole and not their defenses specifically. So while I agree with your take, I'm honing in on expectations for our offense.

We are #11 in points per game offensively, and that includes games against 2 of the 4 worst ACC defenses by that same measure. It'll arguably be tougher sledding for Sims and co each of the next 5 games when compared to our first 4.

It's never as good or as bad as it seems.
Click to expand...

I probably should have called their defenses out more in particular, but for example, I have a hard time saying Notre Dame has the #1 defense in the ACC when they've played Duke and Florida State. Duke and Florida State are the #14 and #13 offenses, and their records are a combined 1-7 in the ACC.
 
ibeattetris

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CuseJacket said:
Our next 5 games in order are: vs Clemson, @ Boston College, vs Notre Dame, vs Pittsburgh, @ Miami

Here are the ACC defensive standings, ranked by points allowed per game:
View attachment 9240

We are in for a big test. We have yet to play any of the ACC"s top 7 defenses. While that is measured by points/game and not as good as ppd not nor SOS-adjusted, it's a proxy.

So what are your expectations of our offense over the next 5?

Mine in a nutshell: All the first 4 game graphics and headlines celebrating individual and team stats, the current rate of ACC Rookie of the Week awards, etc are nice, but they're about to get normalized. That does not necessarily mean the offense is bad, but it's about to be put into context.

Fortunately we have one game under our belt without ridiculous turnovers. If we can minimize those going forward, I'll be pleased, regardless of yardage output. But I'm not expecting the team to come out the other end of this slate unscathed and our successive 400+ yds/game clip will likely end.
Click to expand...
I'll try to follow up later tonight with some more stats. This is a great first look.
 
ibeattetris

ibeattetris

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bwelbo said:
I probably should have called their defenses out more in particular, but for example, I have a hard time saying Notre Dame has the #1 defense in the ACC when they've played Duke and Florida State. Duke and Florida State are the #14 and #13 offenses, and their records are a combined 1-7 in the ACC.
Click to expand...
Well, according to SP+ which takes opponent into account, Clemson is rank 12 defense in the country currently and Notre Dame is rank 20. Pitt comes in ranked 7th in the country and top of ACC. As weeks go, these numbers will become more accurate, but compared to the defenses we've faced, they are not slouches.
 
CuseJacket

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gtrower said:
That graphic says Duke has played 6 games in 5 weeks. Cuse/FSU look weird as well.

Also think it’s better to look at conference only stats which is an option on the ACC site. Not only was our OOC game the only remotely respectable opponent in the conference, it was one of the more potent offenses in the country the last few years.
Click to expand...
This is the conference only view of defensive points allowed per game (still weird that Duke shows 6 games)

2020 Football - Conference Statistics - Atlantic Coast Conference

The official 2020 Football cumulative statistics for Atlantic Coast Conference
theacc.com theacc.com

1602620287199.png
 
CuseJacket

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And it looks like Football Outsiders is showing 2020 data now. Of course a lot is weird e.g., Ohio State at #1 overall without having played a game.

2020 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FEI RATINGS | Football Outsiders

Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Alabama 13-0 13-0 1.43 2.47 1 .50 21 2.61 2 .97 18 3.54 2 7.68 2 2 BYU
www.footballoutsiders.com www.footballoutsiders.com

NCAA defensive efficiency ranking, removing teams that have not yet played a game:
  • #1 - Clemson
  • #6 - Notre Dame
  • #18 - Miami
  • #20 - Pittsburgh
  • #22 - Virginia
  • ****#23 - UCF
  • #29 - Duke
  • #35 - North Carolina
  • #41 - Virginia Tech
  • #42 - Boston College
  • #43 - Syracuse
  • #44 - Georgia Tech (we are #65 overall if you include Big10 and Pac12 placeholders)
  • #46 - Wake Forest
  • #48 - NC State
  • #51 - Florida State
  • #56 - Louisville
This is in theory strength of schedule adjusted data.

Still too early to be overly meaningful, but it'll be an interesting starting point to compare as the year goes on. Right now this suggests we've played 3 of the 5 worst defenses in the ACC not named Georgia Tech, and on deck are the top 4 ACC defenses, with BC coming in at #9 in the ACC.

(FYI our offense is #69 overall when including Big10 and Pac12 placeholders. So far much better than a year ago but still major room for improvement)
 
ibeattetris

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CuseJacket said:
And it looks like Football Outsiders is showing 2020 data now. Of course a lot is weird e.g., Ohio State at #1 overall without having played a game.

2020 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FEI RATINGS | Football Outsiders

Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Alabama 13-0 13-0 1.43 2.47 1 .50 21 2.61 2 .97 18 3.54 2 7.68 2 2 BYU
www.footballoutsiders.com www.footballoutsiders.com

NCAA defensive efficiency ranking, removing teams that have not yet played a game:
  • #1 - Clemson
  • #6 - Notre Dame
  • #18 - Miami
  • #20 - Pittsburgh
  • #22 - Virginia
  • ****#23 - UCF
  • #29 - Duke
  • #35 - North Carolina
  • #41 - Virginia Tech
  • #42 - Boston College
  • #43 - Syracuse
  • #44 - Georgia Tech (we are #65 overall if you include Big10 and Pac12 placeholders)
  • #46 - Wake Forest
  • #48 - NC State
  • #51 - Florida State
  • #56 - Louisville
This is in theory strength of schedule adjusted data.

Still too early to be overly meaningful, but it'll be an interesting starting point to compare as the year goes on. Right now this suggests we've played 3 of the 5 worst defenses in the ACC not named Georgia Tech, and on deck are the top 4 ACC defenses, with BC coming in at #9 in the ACC.

(FYI our offense is #69 overall when including Big10 and Pac12 placeholders. So far much better than a year ago but still major room for improvement)
Click to expand...
I looked earlier and didn't see the FEI data! Awesome that it's out.
 

lv20gt

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While looking over some games it was remarkable how similar our offense was against UL was compared to Miami's.

Miami scored 48, we scored 47. Both of us were right at 50% on third downs (6-13 vs 6-12). Both had 19 first downs. 485 yards to 450. No turnovers. Forced three turnovers. Both got whooped in the ToP. 5.3 ypr vs 5.6. 10.8 yards per pass vs 11.7. 8.08 yards per plays vs 8.03. Just found it interesting.

Anyways, against Clemson I expect a trouncing. Their DL is scary to me and think they are in a class by themselves in the ACC to me. But other than them I don't see why we can't have some solid success against the others. Both ND and Miami have some common opponents with us and don't feel like their defenses really performed all that much better than ours did in those games and I wouldn't be all that concerned about our offense going against our defense. By no means is that a complete, or even good, argument, but with so little data early in the year I think it's worth noting.

IMO I expect our OL will look worse in the coming weeks than it has. So far it has been okay with too many breakdowns rather than consistently being a big issue like it was last year. I expect Clemson to dominate it and the others to pose issues more common than we have seen this year but less so than last year. I think there are some things that really work in our favor though. For one it's our RB group. Even without Mason we have a group of RBs that have shown to be able to produce even when blocking breaks down. In particular Gibbs has deceptive speed (on top of already good speed to begin with). He's the type of back that can make people misjudge the angle they need and that is very big when it comes to bouncing it outside. Also, Sims has shown good judgment on when he needs to tuck it and run. I don't really recall a play where he took off too early imo nor one where it felt like he held onto the ball too long when he should have gotten what he could. That combined with his pretty good accuracy in the short to mid range passing game puts pressure on the defense. In year's past we would have QBs who would take off too early which meant lost opportunities in the passing game and allowed defenses to focus more on that. With Sims, teams need to respect his ability to pass even when under pressure, and that opens up things when he does decide to run. All of that just goes to the point where I don't think a good defensive line is enough to completely shut us down like we saw last year. Now, I do expect more sacks/turnovers caused by pressure and those along with penalties could derail promising drives, but I still think we'll be able to move the ball decently against anyone we played not named Clemson.
 

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lv20gt said:
While looking over some games it was remarkable how similar our offense was against UL was compared to Miami's.

Miami scored 48, we scored 47. Both of us were right at 50% on third downs (6-13 vs 6-12). Both had 19 first downs. 485 yards to 450. No turnovers. Forced three turnovers. Both got whooped in the ToP. 5.3 ypr vs 5.6. 10.8 yards per pass vs 11.7. 8.08 yards per plays vs 8.03. Just found it interesting.

Anyways, against Clemson I expect a trouncing. Their DL is scary to me and think they are in a class by themselves in the ACC to me. But other than them I don't see why we can't have some solid success against the others. Both ND and Miami have some common opponents with us and don't feel like their defenses really performed all that much better than ours did in those games and I wouldn't be all that concerned about our offense going against our defense. By no means is that a complete, or even good, argument, but with so little data early in the year I think it's worth noting.

IMO I expect our OL will look worse in the coming weeks than it has. So far it has been okay with too many breakdowns rather than consistently being a big issue like it was last year. I expect Clemson to dominate it and the others to pose issues more common than we have seen this year but less so than last year. I think there are some things that really work in our favor though. For one it's our RB group. Even without Mason we have a group of RBs that have shown to be able to produce even when blocking breaks down. In particular Gibbs has deceptive speed (on top of already good speed to begin with). He's the type of back that can make people misjudge the angle they need and that is very big when it comes to bouncing it outside. Also, Sims has shown good judgment on when he needs to tuck it and run. I don't really recall a play where he took off too early imo nor one where it felt like he held onto the ball too long when he should have gotten what he could. That combined with his pretty good accuracy in the short to mid range passing game puts pressure on the defense. In year's past we would have QBs who would take off too early which meant lost opportunities in the passing game and allowed defenses to focus more on that. With Sims, teams need to respect his ability to pass even when under pressure, and that opens up things when he does decide to run. All of that just goes to the point where I don't think a good defensive line is enough to completely shut us down like we saw last year. Now, I do expect more sacks/turnovers caused by pressure and those along with penalties could derail promising drives, but I still think we'll be able to move the ball decently against anyone we played not named Clemson.
Click to expand...

I’m okay with losing to Clemson. Just for once honest to Pete can we not fumble on the first punt return, not turn the ball over on our first possession, and so on. We always seem to hand them 14 points before the game even starts.
 
ibeattetris

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I've done a couple things. First off, I took a swing at calculating total EPA for each ACC team. I used the EPA model provided by cfbsrapR and just averaged the EPA across all plays and grouped by pass/rush. Since we are discussing defenses are ordered by total defense. Note: I removed FCS and garbage time data (so Clemson isn't benefitted for Citadel)

1602664885939.png


Weirdest one is Cuse, but maybe their offense is putting them in a lot of bad spots (they also would have had HUGE results with all our redzone blunders against them).

This was pretty fun to put together, it gets really interesting when you start to look into "do runs or passes with 4 yards to go have higher EPA". Maybe we'll look at that another day.

Here is standard point per drive drive taken from bcf toys for ACC ordered by defense points per drive:
1602665123815.png

Clemson is a monster right now, as is Notre Dame. We are still early enough in the season where these numbers fly around a lot, but it looks like we are heading into much tougher opponents.

Finally, basic points per play for def and off
1602667851320.png
 

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ibeattetris said:
I've done a couple things. First off, I took a swing at calculating total EPA for each ACC team. I used the EPA model provided by cfbsrapR and just averaged the EPA across all plays and grouped by pass/rush. Since we are discussing defenses are ordered by total defense. Note: I removed FCS and garbage time data (so Clemson isn't benefitted for Citadel)

View attachment 9245

Weirdest one is Cuse, but maybe their offense is putting them in a lot of bad spots (they also would have had HUGE results with all our redzone blunders against them).

This was pretty fun to put together, it gets really interesting when you start to look into "do runs or passes with 4 yards to go have higher EPA". Maybe we'll look at that another day.

Here is standard point per drive drive taken from bcf toys for ACC ordered by defense points per drive:
View attachment 9246
Clemson is a monster right now, as is Notre Dame. We are still early enough in the season where these numbers fly around a lot, but it looks like we are heading into much tougher opponents.

Finally, basic points per play for def and off
View attachment 9247
Click to expand...

I guess we will see. Notre Dame has only played Duke and Florida State - 2 of the worst offenses in the ACC who are a combined 1-7 in the ACC. They gave up about 20 pts/game and 370 yards per game. We held Florida State to 100 yards less offense and 13 points less than Notre Dame did. 🤷‍♂️ Notre Dame plays Louisville Saturday, so we’ll get another data point soon.
 
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