Upcoming slate of ACC defenses

[croberts]

Our next 5 games in order are: vs Clemson, @ Boston College, vs Notre Dame, vs Pittsburgh, @ Miami

Here are the ACC defensive standings, ranked by points allowed per game:
View attachment 9240

We are in for a big test. We have yet to play any of the ACC"s top 7 defenses. While that is measured by points/game and not as good as ppd not nor SOS-adjusted, it's a proxy.

So what are your expectations of our offense over the next 5?

Mine in a nutshell: All the first 4 game graphics and headlines celebrating individual and team stats, the current rate of ACC Rookie of the Week awards, etc are nice, but they're about to get normalized. That does not necessarily mean the offense is bad, but it's about to be put into context.

Fortunately we have one game under our belt without ridiculous turnovers. If we can minimize those going forward, I'll be pleased, regardless of yardage output. But I'm not expecting the team to come out the other end of this slate unscathed and our successive 400+ yds/game clip will likely end.

I just realized I hit the like button. Actually it should be the agree button! I don’t like this truth!

 

[slugboy]

I pulled the SP+ ratings from ESPN (here). I put in all the ACC teams (unless I messed up and forgot someone), plus UCF. They're rating special teams, now.
So far, for the season, our defense isn't that bad (35), but Clemson (4), Notre Dame (8), Miami (14), and Pittsburgh (12) are in a different tier than we are. Four of the next five teams currently shape up to be the best defenses we'll face.
Preseason ratings are still factored in, but I'm not sure how much.
Our loss to Syracuse is probably weighing us down a lot, even more that the loss to UCF.

TEAM	RATING	OFFENSE	DEFENSE	SPECIAL TEAMS
2. Clemson (4-0)	27.8	43.1 (3)	15.4 (4)	0.1 (19)
7. Notre Dame (3-0)	21.7	38.8 (9)	17.1 (8)	-0.1 (52)
9. N. Carolina (3-0)	17.4	40.7 (5)	23.3 (42)	0.0 (49)
17. Miami (3-1)	14	31.2 (40)	17.7 (14)	0.4 (1)
25. Va. Tech (2-1)	11.4	32.9 (28)	21.6 (30)	0.1 (18)
28. UCF (2-1)	10.9	34.0 (23)	23.1 (41)	N/A
32. Pittsburgh (3-2)	9	26.0 (87)	17.2 (12)	0.2 (12)
39. Virginia (1-2)	6.6	28.7 (58)	22.1 (34)	-0.1 (51)
41. Louisville (1-3)	6.3	38.4 (12)	32.1 (96)	0.0 (41)
47. Florida St. (1-3)	5	30.0 (53)	25.0 (46)	0.0 (36)
48. Ga. Tech (2-2)	4.8	27.2 (74)	22.1 (35)	-0.3 (72)
52. Boston Coll. (3-1)	3.9	31.8 (37)	28.0 (69)	N/A
63. NC St. (3-1)	1.1	28.5 (59)	27.5 (62)	N/A
74. Duke (1-4)	-1.8	20.7 (114)	22.6 (38)	0.1 (20)
76. Wake Forest (1-2)	-2.1	24.0 (98)	25.9 (54)	-0.2 (66)
91. Syracuse (1-3)	-5	23.6 (102)	28.7 (77)	0.1 (17)

 

[ibeattetris]

I guess we will see. Notre Dame has only played Duke and Florida State - 2 of the worst offenses in the ACC who are a combined 1-7 in the ACC. They gave up about 20 pts/game and 370 yards per game. We held Florida State to 100 yards less offense and 13 points less than Notre Dame did. Notre Dame plays Louisville Saturday, so we’ll get another data point soon.

Well, there is a reason the SP+ and FEI guys use previous season data for most of the year before using only season data. These numbers swing a lot this early, but it doesn't make it less fun to look at them. It's unlikely Notre Dame's numbers remain as good as more games are played and data is collected.

As for "We held Florida State to 100 yards less offense and 13 points less than Notre Dame did. "
That's because total stats like total yards and total points are meaningless. There were 2 more FSU drives in the Notre Dame game, so you would expect them to give up more yards and points. We certainly had a better defensive game against FSU than Notre Dame did, but honestly not by much. I still think Notre Dame will show worse results as their season continues.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Well, there is a reason the SP+ and FEI guys use previous season data for most of the year before using only season data. These numbers swing a lot this early, but it doesn't make it less fun to look at them. It's unlikely Notre Dame's numbers remain as good as more games are played and data is collected.

As for "We held Florida State to 100 yards less offense and 13 points less than Notre Dame did. "
That's because total stats like total yards and total points are meaningless. There were 2 more FSU drives in the Notre Dame game, so you would expect them to give up more yards and points. We certainly had a better defensive game against FSU than Notre Dame did, but honestly not by much. I still think Notre Dame will show worse results as their season continues.

I mean, kind of. But having 11 drives and giving up 307 yards and 13 points is significantly better than a defense that faced 13 drives and gave up 405 yards and 26 points. I get that each game has their own nuances so you can't really compare them that well. I'm just saying I don't believe we have enough data yet to say Notre Dame is the #1 defense in the ACC. Its hard to believe that's true when so far they've had pretty average stats and have only faced 2 of the bottom 3 offenses, while everyone else has played as many as 3, 4, and even 5 ACC games.

 

[WreckinGT]

Kinda hard to judge FSU right now. They have started three different QBs and they may have actually found their guy with Travis. They couldn't score on their first four possessions against Jacksonville St. They switched to Travis and scored touchdowns on the next 4. He followed that up with a good game against ND. Who knows if it will last but so far he has been significantly more productive than Blackman or Rodemaker were.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Kinda hard to judge FSU right now. They have started three different QBs and they may have actually found their guy with Travis. They couldn't score on their first four possessions against Jacksonville St. They switched to Travis and scored touchdowns on the next 4. He followed that up with a good game against ND. Who knows if it will last but so far he has been significantly more productive than Blackman or Rodemaker were.

What was clear from the FSU game was their QB was inept. We kept cheering at my house every time he came back in. The FSU fans in attendance were not happy with Norvell and not amused at our antics. I kept reminding them no buyer’s remorse. Just because they expected to kick our *** and got beat didn’t mean they got to whine like little bitches.

 

[ibeattetris]

I mean, kind of. But having 11 drives and giving up 307 yards and 13 points is significantly better than a defense that faced 13 drives and gave up 405 yards and 26 points. I get that each game has their own nuances so you can't really compare them that well. I'm just saying I don't believe we have enough data yet to say Notre Dame is the #1 defense in the ACC. Its hard to believe that's true when so far they've had pretty average stats and have only faced 2 of the bottom 3 offenses, while everyone else has played as many as 3, 4, and even 5 ACC games.

I agree we had a better game, but I don't think 13 points and 100yards is as significant as you're making it out. Not taking into account field position, the average drive is 32 yards. That does mean that Notre Dame gave up more yards average per drive, but it was only 5% more yards per drive when taking into account field position (we held them to 35% of available yards, Notre Dame held them to 40% available yards). We also benefited against FSU the same way Cuse benefited against us, multiple turnovers, missed kick, field position, etc.

At this point in the season, the eye test is probably worth more than stats, but that doesn't make it any less fun for me =)

 

[orientalnc]

We may not see it this week, but I think our offense is improving by a good bit. Maybe it was the modified preseason restrictions, but lots of stuff seemed out of sync for the offense initially. Lots of penalties and turnovers and poor meshes hamstrung us in ways that should have been predictable that I did not expect. Still, we were rolling up 400 yards plus every game.

 

[g0lftime]

We have to establish a run game of some sort or we might see a different QB finish to keep Sims in one piece. I expect them to disguise coverages and try to confuse our freshman QB. Would like to get Mason back as well.

 

[ibeattetris]

We have to establish a run game of some sort or we might see a different QB finish to keep Sims in one piece. I expect them to disguise coverages and try to confuse our freshman QB. Would like to get Mason back as well.

Based on the epa data I linked, Clemson's rush defense has not been great so far this year. Hopefully you are correct and we are able to establish a run game.

 

[slugboy]

Clemson's SP+ Defense Radar chart from last year:


It's almost a circle. Hard to say where to hit them, though their defensive line is slightly weaker than last year.

They were projected to be the #12 defense this year, and they've been #4 so far. Good news is that we're also slightly better than forecast.

 

[presjacket]

What was clear from the FSU game was their QB was inept. We kept cheering at my house every time he came back in. The FSU fans in attendance were not happy with Norvell and not amused at our antics. I kept reminding them no buyer’s remorse. Just because they expected to kick our *** and got beat didn’t mean they got to whine like little bitches.

I have a hard time taking Norvell seriously after seeing this pic of his college playing days.

 

[Lee]

I have a hard time taking Norvell seriously after seeing this pic of his college playing days.View attachment 9248

 

[Milwaukee]

I have a hard time taking Norvell seriously after seeing this pic of his college playing days.View attachment 9248

“I was going into my sophomore year and I’m working an inner-city youth camp right before we start fall camp and we broke up into groups that had competition. I had long hair, and the group that I had said ‘Coach, if we win, we’re going to braid your hair.’ After looking at my group, I thought they had no chance to win, so I made the deal," Norvell said.

 

[whitegoldsphinx]

“I was going into my sophomore year and I’m working an inner-city youth camp right before we start fall camp and we broke up into groups that had competition. I had long hair, and the group that I had said ‘Coach, if we win, we’re going to braid your hair.’ After looking at my group, I thought they had no chance to win, so I made the deal," Norvell said.

So Caucasian corn rows were not truly a Norvell fashion statement?

 

[LibertyTurns]

“I was going into my sophomore year and I’m working an inner-city youth camp right before we start fall camp and we broke up into groups that had competition. I had long hair, and the group that I had said ‘Coach, if we win, we’re going to braid your hair.’ After looking at my group, I thought they had no chance to win, so I made the deal," Norvell said.

Wow, I thought there could be no possible excuse for that. I’m literally shocked.

 

[85Escape]

Without Mason to play hammer I think we are going to have an issue with establishing a run game. I really hope I'm wrong, but I feel like most of our big runs have come from just being faster than the opponent's LBs. I don't see that as much of an advantage this week.