UNC Preview Thread -- Who is UNC?

[slugboy]

Let's start by looking at their schedule and results:

Opponent	Result
Sept-3 Virginia Tech (away)	Lost 17-10
Sept-10 Georgia State (home)	Won 59-17
Sept-17 UVA (home)	Won 59-39

So, are they warmed up on offense and a team that scores 59 points per game, or are they more like the team that played Virginia Tech? Are they the defense that gives up 17 points, or the team that gives up 39? Are their results more about UNC, or are they about their opponents and what they did?

It's early in the season, and we only have three games as a sample size. Brian Fremeau's FEI ratings have UNC 6th in offensive efficiency and 59th in defensive efficiency. In contrast, we're 86th in offense and 70th in defense. I'm taking that with a grain of salt after only three games, though. Either last year's numbers matter, and UNC should be heavily favored, or we're more like the team that played last Saturday and we're turning a new page. We'll find out on Saturday, but for right now, I'm not putting a lot of trust in the computer models.

UNC has three players on the All-ACC first team:
Sam Howell (QB)
Joshua Ezeudu (Guard)
Tony Grimes (CB)

So far this season, our defense is ranked 6th in the ACC and UNCs is ranked 9th. They're giving up a touchdown more than us, about 5 more first downs a game, and a lot more yardage. (I did what I could with the formatting)

				Pass					Rush				Total			Firs				Pena		Turn
Rk	School	G	Pts	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	Pass	Rush	Pen	Tot	No.	Yds	Fum	Int	TO
1	Clemson	3	7.0	17.3	30.0	57.8	156.7	0.0	34.7	110.0	3.2	0.0	64.7	266.7	4.1	7.3	6.0	1.7	14.7	10.0	75.7	0.3	0.7	1.0
6	Virginia Tech	3	17.0	19.3	33.3	58.0	228.0	1.7	33.0	128.3	3.9	0.3	66.3	356.3	5.4	9.3	8.3	1.0	18.7	6.7	53.7	0.3	1.7	2.0
7	Georgia Tech	3	17.7	12.3	20.7	59.7	124.3	1.0	42.0	161.3	3.8	1.3	62.7	285.7	4.6	5.7	8.7	1.3	15.7	7.7	59.3	1.0	0.7	1.7
8	Duke	3	23.7	16.7	30.0	55.6	213.3	1.7	40.0	173.0	4.3	1.3	70.0	386.3	5.5	10.7	7.3	2.3	20.3	6.7	55.0	0.7	1.0	1.7
9	North Carolina	3	24.3	22.0	35.3	62.3	270.7	1.7	36.7	109.7	3.0	1.3	72.0	380.3	5.3	11.3	7.3	1.3	20.0	5.3	55.3	0.7	1.0	1.7
10	Virginia	3	24.3	16.0	27.3	58.5	205.7	2.0	37.0	200.7	5.4	1.3	64.3	406.3	6.3	8.7	10.0	3.3	22.0	6.7	64.7	0.3	0.7	1.0

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2021.

2021 Atlantic Coast Conference Team Defense | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

2021 Atlantic Coast Conference Team Defense

www.sports-reference.com

It could be because of their tempo, their opponents also get additional possessions. UNC is seeing 72 plays a game, and we're just seeing 62.7, but I think mostly we're better at getting off the field.

So far on the season, UNC has

• 1 interception (0 yards, no TD)
• 5 passes disrupted
• 3 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery
• 5 sacks
• 17 tackles for loss

Georgia Tech has

• 2 Interceptions (0 yards)
• 2 passes disrupted
• 5 forced fumbles and 3 fumble recoveries
• 2 sacks
• 15 tackles for loss

Let's get a reference for UNC. Are they anywhere close to Clemson's defense?

• 2 interceptions for 39 yards
• 10 passes disrupted
• 1 forced fumble and 0 recoveries
• 6 sacks
• 22 tackles for loss

So, their defense is exploitable, but can create some havoc in the backfield, which is rough for us. However, this Saturday--at first glance--looks like our offense should have a better time.

We can look at offense later.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

If Howell scores a couple of quick touchdowns on us it may force our offense out of our game plan which could cascade into a long day of self destruction.

On the other hand, if our defense can play like it did against Clemson, our offense may get the time it needs to slice and dice UNC.

To me this is the kind of matchup where either team could win by more than two touchdowns. Our defense will be the key in my opinion.

 

[GT_05]

UVA had a lot of success through the air against UNC (40 out of 57 for 553 yards). I originally thought UNC must have a stout rushing defense because UVA only gained 24 yards on the ground in 22 attempts but if you can get 553 through the air, why run?

UNC has thrown 4 INTs in 85 attempts. That sounds high to me. Three of these were against VT and one was against UVA. They may be 3-0 right now if they hadn’t thrown three picks against VT but I didn’t see the game so I don’t know for sure.

UNC pounded the ball down UVA’s throat, gaining 392 yards on the ground in 47 attempts. Oddly, they still only possessed the ball for 27:19. Maybe several big runs?

If you throw out the Georgia State game, UNC averaged 257.5 yards through the air and 269 yards on the ground. Balanced and effective. They gave up an average of 361 through the air and 75.5 on the ground. They must have some weaknesses in the secondary that we can exploit through the air.

 

[slugboy]

What is UNC on offense?

Well, they had two 59 point games in a row, against Georgia State and against UVA. Against UVA, Sam Howell was 14/21 passing for 307 yards. However, he threw for 5 TDs. You can read a summary over at the UVA Blog. Josh Downs apparently went on a rampage against UVAs secondary.

The UVA opinion is that their defense was horrible against UNC's offense. Was UVA's defense bad, or was UNC's offense great?

This kind of YAC is going to make anyone's QBR soar:


That's 59 yards in one play, and it's almost all Josh Downs.

Downs comes up again with a 39-yard TD (and he's WIDE OPEN). UNC has a great pocket, and Howell can easily count to 6 before chucking this ball. This pass does show off Howell's arm, but it also shows that defenses shouldn't let Downs get behind them:


At that point, UNC is up 14-0, and UVA is playing catchup. UNC is on defense, and doesn't tackle well (on this play or the next highlight). We have players who can make them pay in the same situation:


Here's Khafre Brown on a 75-yard TD. (This is where you might have a snide "UVA is in a break but do not bend defense" comment). Howell has no pressure on this play, and the receivers run undisturbed through the secondary (that looks to be in a zone):



We couldn't get behind Clemson's (Venable's) defense, but UVA could get behind UNC's DBs. I don't know if Yates can make this throw, but UVA did make them pay over the top:


Believe it or not, UVA went to halftime with at 28-24 lead. After just over three minutes into the second half, they'd never lead again. Let's switch over to VT, who caught UNC in game one, but they were ready. From the VT game, you can see VT finding a gap in the zone too:


VT scores on the option. I'd like to see us able to run this:


This is one reason why VT won, though--Howell wasn't as safe from VT's pass rush:


And here's the other. Our DBs may have to play out of their minds, but if they do, it'll pay off:
https://youtu.be/dSqZq6su_sQ?t=85

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

We have to pressure Howell or he will run up the scoreboard on us. So far we have been unable to pressure other than the KSU game. On Offense, we have to learn how to get the ball in the end zone and not settle for Field Goals and Field position. On paper, this shapes up to be a lopsided loss. I'm glad we don't play the game on paper.

Go Jackets!

 

[slugboy]

Please feel free to chime in on this thread. There are a ton of areas to break down, and I can't do it all.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

The real story of the UNC/UVA game is UNCs offensive efficiency. Their drives were TD, TD, TD, FG, INT, Missed FG, EOH, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD. Not counting the end of half, UNC scored TDs on 8/11 possessions, and had 9/11 possessions come away with points. All but one of their TDs came after drives of more than 70 yards and the FG came after a 67 yard drive. UNC can move the ball efficiently and can score routinely. Whether we can outperform UVA as a defense remains to be seen, but to beat UNC, we are going to have to make them a LOT more inefficient on offense.

 

[LongforDodd]

Is that 285 ypg of Offense for us? Are we are ahead of only Clemson out of those 6 teams? Let's get on the stick, Coach Key.

 

[slugboy]

Back to UVA/UNC. UVA did effectively nothing on the ground. They had 22 rushes for 24 yards TOTAL. The QBs were just about equal, and the difference was the ground game.

All these numbers are from ESPN

North Carolina cleared 392 yards on the ground, with 3 TDs. Ty Chandler almost cleared 200 yards on the ground. Sam Howell scrambled for 112 and averaged 7.5 yards every time he ran with the ball.

Brennan Armstrong (UVA QB) went backwards (3 sacks).
UVA's running game:

	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jacob Rodriguez	3	14	4.7	0	7
Mike Hollins	4	13	3.3	0	5
Keytaon Thompson	3	11	3.7	0	6
Devin Darrington	2	4	2.0	0	2
Wayne Taulapapa	2	-2	-1.0	1	1
Olusegun Oluwatimi	0	-3	0.0	0	0
Brennan Armstrong	8	-16	-2.0	0	4
TEAM	22	24	1.1	1	7

UNC's running game

	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ty Chandler	20	198	9.9	2	60
Sam Howell	15	112	7.5	0	20
Caleb Hood	9	66	7.3	1	25
Josh Henderson	3	16	5.3	0	14
TEAM	47	392	8.3	3	60

Passing, UVA's QB Armstrong was really efficient (ESPN Box Score)

	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Brennan Armstrong	39/54	554	10.3	4	1	81.1

He played catch up, and slung the ball for 4 TDs and 554 yards and lost. He had two fumbles, lost one, and threw one pick->and against UNC that was a 10-14 point swing.

Howell was just a little better:

	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Sam Howell	14/21	307	14.6	5	1	93.9

 

[slugboy]

So, I looked at the UVA game and I just said something like

UVA only got 24 yards on the ground. We can't win that way

So, what did VT do in their win (ESPN Box Score used throughout):

	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jalen Holston	13	49	3.8	0	8
Braxton Burmeister	9	42	4.7	1	18
Tayvion Robinson	2	25	12.5	0	16
Raheem Blackshear	11	16	1.5	0	11
Tre Turner	1	12	12.0	0	12
Keshawn King	3	2	0.7	0	1
Team	4	-19	-4.8	0	0
TEAM	43	127	3.0	1	18

Yep, 127 rushing yards. VT had 296 total yards, and 17 points, and won. They also "won" time of possession 35-25. UNC turned the ball over 3 times, but VT turned it over twice. They only had 25 yards of penalties, while UNC had 44.

UNC went 2 out of 3 on 4th down (you'd think they won with just that stat), but they only went 2-10 on 3rd. VT wasn't much better at 6-13 on 3rd down.

VT made it a defensive battle. They had 6 sacks, and 9 tackles for loss.

Josh Downs still got 123 yards receiving on 8 receptions. UNC averaged 12.2 yards per catch. Their yards per attempt was a somewhat acceptable 6.3 yards per attempt.

This is Sam Howell's game. VT shut him down (although, a lot of QBs would like 208 yards passing on days they're shut down):

	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Sam Howell	17/32	208	6.5	1	3	39.4

Here's UNC's rushing game, which was REALLY shut down:

	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ty Chandler	10	66	6.6	0	23
D.J. Jones	6	43	7.2	0	29
Sam Howell	13	35	2.7	0	17
Caleb Hood	1	2	2.0	0	2
TEAM	30	146	4.9	0	29

UNC's receivers are just terrors:

	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Josh Downs	8	123	15.4	1	37
Emery Simmons	3	46	15.3	0	23
Antoine Green	2	20	10.0	0	10
Ty Chandler	1	9	9.0	0	9
Garrett Walston	1	6	6.0	0	6
D.J. Jones	2	4	2.0	0	9
TEAM	17	208	12.2	1	37

One key is that VT shut down UNCs running game. I wouldn't make it our number one goal, but I'd make sure that Chandler and Jones didn't beat me.

 

[ibeattetris]

It could be because of their tempo, their opponents also get additional possessions. UNC is seeing 72 plays a game, and we're just seeing 62.7, but I think mostly we're better at getting off the field.

62.7 is probably the lowest plays per game in any three game stretch for Collins or Coach P. If I have time later today I’ll try to write a script and see. I know at temple they were pushing well into the 80’s quite a few games.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Looking at the UNC/VT game vs the UNC/UVA game, UNC was unable to sustain many drives. VT did a good job of keeping the play in front of them. Other than 3-4 long runs, VT's front 7 did a pretty good job containing the UNC backfield. They forced Howell to throw and relied on their CBs and Safeties to make plays, which is how VT generally operates on D.

 

[slugboy]

Is that 285 ypg of Offense for us? Are we are ahead of only Clemson out of those 6 teams? Let's get on the stick, Coach Key.

That's team DEFENSE.
Lower is better. We're 4th in the conference in yards/game:

			Tota
Rk	School	G	Yds^
1	Syracuse	3	225.3
2	Boston College	3	256.3
3	North Carolina State	3	261.0
4	Clemson	3	266.7
5	Georgia Tech	3	285.7
6	Wake Forest	3	308.3
7	Virginia Tech	3	356.3
8	Pitt	3	366.7
9	North Carolina	3	380.3
10	Duke	3	386.3
11	Virginia	3	406.3
12	Louisville	3	408.0
13	Florida State	3	421.7
14	Miami (FL)	3	427.0

[thead] [/thead]

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2021.

We're 7th in points/game (same story, lower is better)

Rk	School	G	Pts
1	Clemson	3	7.0
2	Boston College	3	10.3
3	North Carolina State	3	10.3
4	Wake Forest	3	13.3
5	Syracuse	3	16.7
6	Virginia Tech	3	17.0
7	Georgia Tech	3	17.7
8	Duke	3	23.7
9	North Carolina	3	24.3
10	Virginia	3	24.3
11	Louisville	3	27.0
12	Pitt	3	28.3
13	Florida State	3	32.0
14	Miami (FL)	3	35.0

[thead] [/thead]

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2021.

 

[slugboy]

Is that 285 ypg of Offense for us? Are we are ahead of only Clemson out of those 6 teams? Let's get on the stick, Coach Key.

Here's points/game OFFENSE:

Rk	School	G	PtsV
1	Pitt	3	44.3
2	North Carolina	3	42.7
3	Boston College	3	41.3
4	Virginia	3	41.3
5	Wake Forest	3	39.3
6	Duke	3	34.3
7	North Carolina State	3	33.3
8	Syracuse	3	32.7
9	Louisville	3	32.0
10	Georgia Tech	3	24.7
11	Virginia Tech	3	24.3
12	Florida State	3	23.0
13	Clemson	3	22.0
14	Miami (FL)	3	18.3

[thead] [/thead]

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2021.

And total offense yards/game (if it's yards/play we flip-flop with FSU, who are surprisingly slower tempo than us):

Rk	School	G	Pts	Plays	YdsV	Avg
1	Virginia	3	41.3	72.0	558.3	7.8
2	North Carolina	3	42.7	67.3	553.3	8.2
3	Duke	3	34.3	79.7	528.7	6.6
4	Pitt	3	44.3	75.3	494.7	6.6
5	North Carolina State	3	33.3	70.0	455.7	6.5
6	Louisville	3	32.0	72.3	432.7	6.0
7	Syracuse	3	32.7	62.7	422.0	6.7
8	Wake Forest	3	39.3	73.0	416.3	5.7
9	Boston College	3	41.3	57.3	406.3	7.1
10	Georgia Tech	3	24.7	69.7	383.3	5.5
11	Florida State	3	23.0	65.3	362.7	5.6
12	Miami (FL)	3	18.3	74.3	360.3	4.8
13	Virginia Tech	3	24.3	67.3	335.0	5.0
14	Clemson	3	22.0	67.0	322.7	4.8

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2021.

 

[LongforDodd]

Here's points/game OFFENSE:

Rk	School	G	PtsV
1	Pitt	3	44.3
2	North Carolina	3	42.7
3	Boston College	3	41.3
4	Virginia	3	41.3
5	Wake Forest	3	39.3
6	Duke	3	34.3
7	North Carolina State	3	33.3
8	Syracuse	3	32.7
9	Louisville	3	32.0
10	Georgia Tech	3	24.7
11	Virginia Tech	3	24.3
12	Florida State	3	23.0
13	Clemson	3	22.0
14	Miami (FL)	3	18.3

[thead] [/thead]


Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2021.

And total offense yards/game (if it's yards/play we flip-flop with FSU, who are surprisingly slower tempo than us):

Rk	School	G	Pts	Plays	YdsV	Avg
1	Virginia	3	41.3	72.0	558.3	7.8
2	North Carolina	3	42.7	67.3	553.3	8.2
3	Duke	3	34.3	79.7	528.7	6.6
4	Pitt	3	44.3	75.3	494.7	6.6
5	North Carolina State	3	33.3	70.0	455.7	6.5
6	Louisville	3	32.0	72.3	432.7	6.0
7	Syracuse	3	32.7	62.7	422.0	6.7
8	Wake Forest	3	39.3	73.0	416.3	5.7
9	Boston College	3	41.3	57.3	406.3	7.1
10	Georgia Tech	3	24.7	69.7	383.3	5.5
11	Florida State	3	23.0	65.3	362.7	5.6
12	Miami (FL)	3	18.3	74.3	360.3	4.8
13	Virginia Tech	3	24.3	67.3	335.0	5.0
14	Clemson	3	22.0	67.0	322.7	4.8

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2021.

Thanks...I should read better!

 

[ilovetheoption]

We're still early enough in the season that we don't know the answers to some of the questions. Is Georgia tech good on defense or does Clemson suck on offense? Is UNC going on offense or does UVA suck on defense?

Gt/unc is one of those good early season calibration games where we figure some stuff out, that we can then cross reference and get an idea of who is who.

 

[UgaBlows]

We're still early enough in the season that we don't know the answers to some of the questions. Is Georgia tech good on defense or does Clemson suck on offense? Is UNC going on offense or does UVA suck on defense?

Gt/unc is one of those good early season calibration games where we figure some stuff out, that we can then cross reference and get an idea of who is who.

Whats your take on UVA so-far? Have they gotten a different OC or something? I was suprised to see a Bronco team get lit up on Def like vs, UNC, though it seems to happen to everyone eventually these days...

 

[ilovetheoption]

Whats your take on UVA so-far? Have they gotten a different OC or something? I was suprised to see a Bronco team get lit up on Def like vs, UNC, though it seems to happen to everyone eventually these days...

Nope, still anae, just armstrong is throwing the ball fantastically. He's got AWFUL mechanics, he throws like a left-hander taught to throw by right-handers, but man, the ball gets there, so screw look, right?

TBH, I'll have a better idea about UVA after GT/UNC At this point, if you threw the ACC coastal in a bag you could reach in and pull out any team and say 'this is the best team' or say 'this is the worst team' and I'd believe you.

 

[ibeattetris]

Lower is better. We're 4th in the conference in yards/game:

ACC ranking excluding FCS
5th in defense yards per play
7th in defense points per play

For offense
12th in yards per play (ahead of Miami and Clemson)
13th in points per play (only Clemson is worse)

Per drive metrics aren't great either, but given only two fbs games, there are more data points with play data currently.

 

[stech81]

Would not want to be the defensive coordinator for this game, Not sure the same defense we used against Clemson will work against unc. Their QB cam beat you with his arm and legs, I guess you could keep a spy on him but that spy better be good and fast. Would love to see us blitz but that could mean we let them get a few long plays if we get burned, Some how we need to get the lead and not let them get ahead early/