Turnovers and Special Teams

[leatherneckjacket]

...

The coaches may not have call the sack-fumble pay, but they did call a play where the LG pulls and blocks for the QB while King scrambles to the right in what appears to be a long developing play, possibly a long crossing pattern from the left side to the right. Why we would do this on 1st down on the 16 yards line is beyond me.

 

[slugboy]

Rather than start a new thread on the topic, I decided to bump my original from three years ago. While turnovers and special teams were not as dire this past Saturday compared to when I originally posted, the premise still stands.

Our two turnovers on Saturday directly led to points for Louisville and/or took likely points off the board. Combined with one missed FG (the makable one), it’s very easy to see how three plays add up and led to the L.

When we take care of business in these two areas, regardless of what’s happening elsewhere, we have a great chance to win in games where one team cannot simply overpower the other.

More stats-nerdiness, based on the expected points and WPA, from GameOnPaper.

It’s not turnovers, but I’ll start with special teams. Punting was a net positive, but FG and kickoffs hurt. Based on field position, our kickoff units just about cost us a touchdown—between back field position for us and good field position for them. We’d have been much better off fair catching everything.

Punting was surprisingly a bright spot.

Here are the turnover plays. The Louisville turnover was had a fair shot at minor points for us. Our turnovers were much more painful that Louisville’s one turnover

Quarter	Team	Play	EPA	WP%	WPA%
Q4 3:51		(1st & 10 at LOU 16) Haynes King sacked by Dezmond Tell for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 26 Haynes King fumbled, forced by Dezmond Tell, recovered by LOU Kameron Wilson , return for 0 yards - LOU 29, GT 28	-5.66	70.2%	-42.9%
Q1 13:43		(3rd & 3 at GT 25) Haynes King pass intercepted Ramon Puryear return for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 27 - LOU 0, GT 0	-4.38	22.9%	-2.7%
Q2 0:05		(3rd & 5 at LOU 18) Jack Plummer pass intercepted Clayton Powell-Lee return for no gain to the LOU 37 - LOU 13, GT 28	-1.85	22.2%	-1.3%

The fourth quarter sack was huge
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)
Yards to End Zone (Before -> After):16 -> 74
Started Drive at: GT 0
ExpPts (After - Before = Added):-1.14 - 4.53 = -5.66
Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.53)
Score Difference (End): 1 (2.14)
Change of Possession: 1
Score: LOU 29, GT 28
Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards
Win Probability (Before): 70.2%
Win Probability (After): 27.3%
Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score:28 (28)


Addendum: Here are some definitions:

Glossary

The following is a list of definitions of many of the concepts and statistics found throughout Advanced Football Analytics. Air Yards (AY)...

www.advancedfootballanalytics.com

 

[roadkill]

It’s not turnovers, but I’ll start with special teams. Punting was a net positive, but FG and kickoffs hurt. Based on field position, our kickoff units just about cost us a touchdown—between back field position for us and good field position for them. We’d have been much better off fair catching everything.

I’m sure that Key is frustrated with special teams. First, we fixed the blocked punt problem last year, only to have runbacks be a problem. Then it appears we got better at preventing long runbacks but now can’t kick a FG.
On a positive note, after GT’s first two KO returns didn’t make it past the 20, I thought we should simply start fair-catching them. Coaches apparently thought the same, so we did.

 

[iceeater1969]

CPJ had Butker for much of his tenure. He also is responsible for bringing in Percy.

He picked Wells as FG kicker. All season ( iir ) he was perfect inside the 40 and made a game winner from about the 45.
His kicks were high and had lots of spin so they were straight.
THEN TFG

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

I'm all for dancing gracefully around the miscues and weaknesses of our individual players. But I think it's also unfair to lay all of those misgivings solely at the feet of the coaches. The coaches are not calling "the fumble play".

Yes, 5 turnovers are the sign of a bad team. In our case it's likely due to a young, developing team. And much of that will get corrected either by way of player improvement or new players given a chance.

I said it in the write-up and I've said it here over the last decade. Winning college football games often comes down to turnovers and special teams. You cannot be a good team "except for the turnovers". You cannot be a good team "except for our special teams play".

Much like the Beamer ball, conservative offense years at VT, you can be really successful in college ball once you take care of those things. We really need to figure it out this year to have a chance at a bowl. Game experience and reps help, and given our roster make-up that means there are reasons for hope/optimism that we can sort those things out. This year might be too soon to get us over the hump, but it'd sure be nice to see continued improvement.

Anyone watching the Clemson-Duke game tonight saw a coaching clinic by the Duke staff especially on defense. The open field tackling was something to behold as was Clemson falling apart with two blocked field goals and I think 3 turnovers in the red zone. The difference between Duke and Tech right now is stark.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Anyone watching the Clemson-Duke game tonight saw a coaching clinic by the Duke staff especially on defense. The open field tackling was something to behold as was Clemson falling apart with two blocked field goals and I think 3 turnovers in the red zone. The difference between Duke and Tech right now is stark.

alright Chicken Little. I don't think it's as bad as you say. Tech is headed in the right direction. This team played much better than any team we had in the past 4 years played on opening day. I like what's coming. I can be a little patient.

That being said, I'm not sure our DC will survive if we don't tackle better and play smarter on defense.

 

[5277hike]

Anyone watching the Clemson-Duke game tonight saw a coaching clinic by the Duke staff especially on defense. The open field tackling was something to behold as was Clemson falling apart with two blocked field goals and I think 3 turnovers in the red zone. The difference between Duke and Tech right now is stark.

Last year you could see improvement in Duke with their new coach. In a small 1-game sample this year there appears to be real improvement in his second year. I want to see continued improvement this year as the season progresses, and a definite improvement next year with CBK’s system firmly in place and more of his players.

 

[g0lftime]

Anyone watching the Clemson-Duke game tonight saw a coaching clinic by the Duke staff especially on defense. The open field tackling was something to behold as was Clemson falling apart with two blocked field goals and I think 3 turnovers in the red zone. The difference between Duke and Tech right now is stark.

Elko is obviously a really good coach. There is not much difference in their recruits from us. Shows what a really good QB and solid coaching can achieve.

 

[33jacket]

Massive rebuild. He is recruiting good. Team needs easily 1-2 years. Dont see it as a bowl team. I think next year we can talk bowl. Year 3 it’s expected

 

[JacketFan137]

Massive rebuild. He is recruiting good. Team needs easily 1-2 years. Dont see it as a bowl team. I think next year we can talk bowl. Year 3 it’s expected

i don’t think key can be given the patience for a rebuild. it’s one thing if it’s a new staff but as a guy who was a big part of the previous staff i’m not sure he deserves 3 years if he’s not showing drastic improvement by the end of this year

 

[g0lftime]

Massive rebuild. He is recruiting good. Team needs easily 1-2 years. Dont see it as a bowl team. I think next year we can talk bowl. Year 3 it’s expected

The schedule is tough next year. We will be challenged to win 6 next year. We should be better but may not show with more wins.

 

[33jacket]

The schedule is tough next year. We will be challenged to win 6 next year. We should be better but may not show with more wins.

Tough this year too. Eventually u have to win. Recruit to your schedule and conference. Its just not this year. Maybe next. Has to be in year 3

 

[JacketFan137]

I dont agree at all. Just being a member of a staff under a guy who had control and implemented alot of dumb; on top of keys staff being new; you have to treat him the same as a guy coming in not in the previous regime. Because this is the first true year he has had a chance to start his program. It was not him the prior 3 years.

He needs time. Clown messed it up bad

key was the ASSISTANT HEAD COACH. i loved the turnaround he did last year and i think he could be good for us but he has to be given a much shorter leash and thankfully based on the contract information available he has been given a far shorter leash than collins

collins was obviously bad but as the assistant that was there the whole time it’s kinda soft for you to absolve him of all wrongdoing over the tenure. if we don’t win minimum 5 games this year and we don’t go to a bowl game next season key has to go bottom line

 

[Techastrophe]

Who takes how much blame for past years? Now there's a debate we should have again.

Performance on special teams is more dependent on team discipline. Looking like fools on kick returns, calling a field goal attempt at the end of Q2, missing a mid-range FG in a dome seem to suggest there are some discipline gaps remaining.

 

[JacketFan137]

Who takes how much blame for past years? Now there's a debate we should have again.

Performance on special teams is more dependent on team discipline. Looking like fools on kick returns, calling a field goal attempt at the end of Q2, missing a mid-range FG in a dome seem to suggest there are some discipline gaps remaining.

kicking the field goal at the end of the first half was the right call for sure i can’t hold that against the staff.

the short kick returns and the missed field goal that close in the second half was very bad and needs to be worked on.

i don’t think it’s really a discipline issue though. not sure how you see it that way

 

[Techastrophe]

kicking the field goal at the end of the first half was the right call for sure i can’t hold that against the staff.

the short kick returns and the missed field goal that close in the second half was very bad and needs to be worked on.

i don’t think it’s really a discipline issue though. not sure how you see it that way

The discipline that I'm talking about is staying dialed in, being prepared and focused when there are many excuses for checking out. There is a clash where on the one hand preparing for special teams plays seems less necessary and less important, but on the other hand there are unique techniques, rules, risks, and opportunities where success depends heavily on training. So it takes discipline to get the training done before the game and discipline to have bodies and heads and eyes in the right place during the game.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

From what I saw, the only real issue on ST were the missed field goals. One was a Hail Mary that would have been 10 yards longer than his previous best, so I can’t really count that one. The missed 30 yarder is more problematic, but it’s still a small sample size. Let’s see how he does going forward before we manufacture a problem that might not even exist.

 

[LongforDodd]

Who takes how much blame for past years? Now there's a debate we should have again.

Performance on special teams is more dependent on team discipline. Looking like fools on kick returns, calling a field goal attempt at the end of Q2, missing a mid-range FG in a dome seem to suggest there are some discipline gaps remaining.

ST is more of a function of your overall team talent. Discipline or not.