Todd Stansbury counting on more football wins this season... How many...

[RonJohn]

No I agree with you. Hard links with actual quotes are required, especially in this social media everybody-can-make-up-their-own-facts-to-suit-their-agenda world, and there are always too many people gullible enough to accept everything on the internet as fact, add their own warping to it, and pass it on to others. Reminds me of the old Telephone game from first grade to teach the importance of accurate listening and communication skills.

It could have been a quote from a presser but I cannot come up with a link either, so I have to accept the version you provided with verifiable link and quotes. Water under the bridge about having the money last fall though, and we are where we are now. $3.3MM cash saved if they wait to make the move in December.

Thanks.

And actually I think it saves even more than 3.3MM. (Remember when I said that Ken doesn't always get factual details correct?) The original reporting when Collins was hired was that he would start at $3.0 million and increase by $100k per year for 7 years. If he was fired before four complete seasons, he would be due the entire contract. After four seasons, the buyout is $2.4 million per year. If that original reporting was correct:

After three years he had been paid $3.0 + $3.1 + $3.2 = $9.3 million. The entire contract was for $23.1 million. At the end of last year, he would have been owed $13.8 million.
After this year, he would be owed $2.4 million/year for three years, or $7.2 million.
The difference between firing him last year and firing him this year is more like $6.6 million than $3.3 million.

 

[BuzzDraft]

And actually I think it saves even more than 3.3MM. (Remember when I said that Ken doesn't always get factual details correct?) The original reporting when Collins was hired was that he would start at $3.0 million and increase by $100k per year for 7 years. If he was fired before four complete seasons, he would be due the entire contract. After four seasons, the buyout is $2.4 million per year. If that original reporting was correct:

After three years he had been paid $3.0 + $3.1 + $3.2 = $9.3 million. The entire contract was for $23.1 million. At the end of last year, he would have been owed $13.8 million.
After this year, he would be owed $2.4 million/year for three years, or $7.2 million.
The difference between firing him last year and firing him this year is more like $6.6 million than $3.3 million.

I prefer to look at total amount of Tech's money he walks away with as of the end of this contract. That tells the real story.
If he is fired at any time before the 2022 season has ended, like the end of last season in your example or during the bye week this year like some have suggested, he still walks away with the entire $23.1 million.
If they wait until the day after the end of the 2022 season in December, his total walkaway would be $19.8 million, which is where the $3.3 million "savings" comes from.

You're talking about the balance outstanding owed last December vs what the balance outstanding owed would be this December, but doesn't account for the additional $3.3 million he will have been paid for coaching during 2022. So, the $6.6 million saved in balance remaining by waiting a year comes at an additional cost of $3.3 million salary, so the amount actually "saved" on the total contract payout is $3.3 million..

Here are all scenarios based on the timing of firing the football coach
$23.1 million total payout if fired anytime before end of 2022 ($0 contract life savings)
$19.8 million total payout if fired after 2022 season but before 2023 season ($3.3 million contract life savings)
$20.8 million total payout if fired after 2023 season but before 2024 season ($2.3 million contract life savings)
$21.9 million total payout if fired after 2024 season but before 2025 season ($1.2 million contract life savings)
$23.1 million total payout if fired after 2025 season, contract completed ($0 contract life savings)

Looking at the cash flow doesn't affect the total payout above, just the total already paid out vs the outstanding balance owed of the total payout based on the timing of firing
If fired at end of 2021 Total paid to date $9.3 million, $13.8 million balance owed (total payout $23.1 million)
If fired at end of 2022 Total paid to date $12.6 million, $7.2 million balance owed (total payout $19.8 million)
If fired at end of 2023 Total paid to date $16.0 million, $4.8 million balance owed (total payout $20.8 million)
If fired at end of 2024 Total paid to date $19.5 million, $2.4 million balance owed (total payout $21.9 million)

Due to expiration of guarantees, the sweet spot for firing is after 2022.

Sorry for somewhat OT, but these numbers will also be in the cost/benefit calculus along with the number of wins threshold for deciding on firing the coach.

 

[RonJohn]

You're talking about the balance outstanding owed last December vs what the balance outstanding owed would be this December, but doesn't account for the additional $3.3 million he will have been paid for coaching during 2022. So, the $6.6 million saved in balance remaining by waiting a year comes at an additional cost of $3.3 million salary, so the amount actually "saved" on the total contract payout is $3.3 million..

The problem is that you are looking at HIS contract, not the total cost for head coaches to GT. The total payout to CGC is reduced by $3.3 million by keeping him this year, but the total amount paid by GT is increased by at least $6.6 million if he had been fired last year. GT would have had to pay another coach for 2022, and if we get another budget coach at $3.3 million that means that the total cost to GT to fire him last year would be at least $6.6 million. On top of that, assistant coaches started getting two year contracts during the CPJ years. I don't know if any of the coaches last year had two year contracts, but it is very possible that assistant coach buyouts would have also had to have been paid. CGC's contract is reduced by $3.3 million this year, but GT would have had to come up with a lot more than $3.3 million to fire him and still have a football team. The GTAA can't set a budget based on how much money CGC gets, it has to set the budget based on how much money the athletic department has to spend.

You are correct that firing him after the 2022 season would be the cheapest time to fire him, at least based on my understanding of his contract.

 

[RonJohn]

You are correct that firing him after the 2022 season would be the cheapest time to fire him, at least based on my understanding of his contract.

I need to point out that I made the same mistake in phrasing with this. After 2022 is the time to pay the lease amount of money to CGC. The least expensive thing for money that GT has to spend is to wait until the contract expires. That won't happen. Athletic programs don't want the HC to have less than two years left on a contract. By the end of the 2023 season, CGC will either get a contract extension or will no longer be the HC of GT.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Thanks for the breakdown on the various scenarios of firings and owed compensation. Those seem to be real numbers and concrete timelines

What I always wonder about is how the factories calculate the cost of terminating a coach in the middle of a contract. They are not squeamish about pulling the trigger quickly when things are going nowhere. Many will respond that money is not an obstacle in their decision making. Obviously.

But are there other factors they are calculating the cost of such as damage to branding, lost TV revenue, lost alumni donations, decreased ticket sales, smaller attendance at games, diminished recruiting, lost game day ambiance, damage to football legacy, and inability to attract a quality coach in the future due to perception the program is going down?

All those things seem subjective to the average Tech fan because we tend to just think concretely about contracts but I bet the money programs in football have a slide rule worthy matrix of factors that they know the exact cost of. I suspect our cost benefit analysis is very one dimensional by comparison.

 

[RonJohn]

Thanks for the breakdown on the various scenarios of firings and owed compensation. Those seem to be real numbers and concrete timelines

What I always wonder about is how the factories calculate the cost of terminating a coach in the middle of a contract. They are not squeamish about pulling the trigger quickly when things are going nowhere. Many will respond that money is not an obstacle in their decision making. Obviously.

But are there other factors they are calculating the cost of such as damage to branding, lost TV revenue, lost alumni donations, decreased ticket sales, smaller attendance at games, diminished recruiting, lost game day ambiance, damage to football legacy, and inability to attract a quality coach in the future due to perception the program is going down?

All those things seem subjective to the average Tech fan because we tend to just think concretely about contracts but I bet the money programs in football have a slide rule worthy matrix of factors that they know the exact cost of. I suspect our cost benefit analysis is very one dimensional by comparison.

You do have to consider all of those things.(Except TV money because every ACC school gets that no matter how well they perform.)

Several million dollars, even into several millions of dollars are easily accessible by the very large programs. Texas and Texas A&M both have revenues over $200 million. Boosters at factory programs step in to cover buyouts and money for new exciting coaches.

Compare the athletics situation to a bad leaky roof that is likely to cause damage to the inside of a house. It is more expensive to ignore the issue than it is to replace the roof. A wealthy person would just replace the roof. A person with a well funded emergency fund would just replace the roof. A person with no emergency fund but decent income and credit would set up a payment plan for a new roof. A person with no money, no credit, and little income would do something like putting a plastic tarp over the roof until they can do something better. GT Athletic's financial situation is closer to the last two people.

I think that GT football is in a very bad situation at the moment from a high level standpoint. From some people posting here and from other people I have talked to it appears that a large number of long time season ticket holders are not renewing. It appears at this point that attendance is going to be very low next year.(Hopefully I am wrong.) It looks like CGC and the football program have lowered the hard sell techniques, but that might be because I am not paying attention. If the team wins 5, 6, or even 7 wins it will probably take a decent amount of marketing to pull those people back and to gain new season ticket holders. As I said, the hard sell techniques appear to be on hold. Restarting them might still turn people off instead of pulling them in. If the team wins more than 8 games, or if CGC is fired and a superstar type coach is hired then I would predict that attendance and interest would increase in 2023. I am doubtful that either of those will happen. We will likely either have a mediocre season and bring CGC back for 2023, or CGC will be fired and a non inspiring coach will take over in 2023.

For the good of GT football, the team doesn't need just a few more wins it needs to have an outstanding season.

 

[jacket_fan]

After 40 years I held back from getting season tickets this year. Not saying I won't go but .......

This is not uncommon in my experience of my alumni friends of the late 70s and early 80s. All of my friends in the east upper deck are not renewing their tickets after 30+ years. It is surprising to me how unresponsive the ticket sales representatives are with my requests for information. The folks in the ticket office should be doing everything to try and keep season ticket holders, yet give obtuse answers. It really is a shame how far Georgia Tech has fallen for all of us old guys.

 

[4shotB]

This is not uncommon in my experience of my alumni friends of the late 70s and early 80s. All of my friends in the east upper deck are not renewing their tickets after 30+ years. It is surprising to me how unresponsive the ticket sales representatives are with my requests for information. The folks in the ticket office should be doing everything to try and keep season ticket holders, yet give obtuse answers. It really is a shame how far Georgia Tech has fallen for all of us old guys.

No offense amigo but you must be really old. I started in '76 and got out in '81 and that has been my experience when dealing with the GTAA in that entire time frame. Perhaps it was different in the Dodd/Carson days?

 

[Pointer]

You leave out the small alumni that has lots of non giving (donate buy tickets ) alumni that demand winning before the will give. We have a vast majority of our alumni that """work great steady corporate jobs """. other schools have way more alumni that had ok jobs but lost them and started RETAIL PEOPLE ORIENTED businesses. Some become wildly successful (have free cash flow available. we need to different fund rasising approach to our alumni .

Lack of $$ impacted the following:
tstan failed to see cpj was going to quit with no notice even though tstan gave him a contract extension.

tstan quickly hired cgc (no head p5 head coaching experience

tstan allowed him to RAPIDLY hire 90% staff from g5 teams.. some got giant pay raises to come to gt..

tstan took way too long to have "THE TALK" with cgc.

TSTANS FOLKS HAVE COME AROUND WITH THE TIN CUP TO HIT UP THE GIVERS.

SO FAR I SEE NO DYNAMIC CROSS GENERATIONAL EXCITING PLAN FOR GETTING LOTS OF REGULAR ALUMNI INTO THE GIVING AND ATTENDING BOAT.

I imagine you writing this post at night while enjoying some adult beverages. The more drinks you're having, the louder you're yelling.

 

[AUFC]

I know it doesn't really help GTAA out but season tickets are a really tough sell for me when there's zero demand from the fanbase (yes I realize the irony). I could spend $200/game for the same decent seats every game or snag a pair of great seats morning-of for $70 total. I get more flexibility that way.

 

[bobongo]

SO FAR I SEE NO DYNAMIC CROSS GENERATIONAL EXCITING PLAN FOR GETTING LOTS OF REGULAR ALUMNI INTO THE GIVING AND ATTENDING BOAT.

I have one:

JUST WIN, BABY!

 

[augustabuzz]

No offense amigo but you must be really old. I started in '76 and got out in '81 and that has been my experience when dealing with the GTAA in that entire time frame. Perhaps it was different in the Dodd/Carson days?

Damn kids!

 

[jacket_fan]

No offense amigo but you must be really old.

Just like you - I meant that graduated in the late 70s and early 80s, sorry. We were on campus at the same time.

I can't remember the name of the guy in charge of all the ticketing stuff, but when they moved the field (away from the east upper btw), I was invited to come down and pick out new seats. It was if they valued me as a paying customer. Now we get a ticket person that changes every year or so. IIWII

 

[Vespidae]

This is not uncommon in my experience of my alumni friends of the late 70s and early 80s. All of my friends in the east upper deck are not renewing their tickets after 30+ years. It is surprising to me how unresponsive the ticket sales representatives are with my requests for information. The folks in the ticket office should be doing everything to try and keep season ticket holders, yet give obtuse answers. It really is a shame how far Georgia Tech has fallen for all of us old guys.

Tech contracted sales out to a third party. It’s not worth it for them to get in a row. FWIW, I did not renew and I had seats in 107.

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

Tech contracted sales out to a third party. It’s not worth it for them to get in a row. FWIW, I did not renew and I had seats in 107.

Based on the GTSwarm unofficial poll (people who stated they did not renew), Todd S. has to be having some remorse about the CGC decision. It may only be 15% or so doing it, but that is still painful when you have such a small season tik fanbase to begin with.

 

[g0lftime]

Based on the GTSwarm unofficial poll (people who stated they did not renew), Todd S. has to be having some remorse about the CGC decision. It may only be 15% or so doing it, but that is still painful when you have such a small season tik fanbase to begin with.

I agree that for no other reason it would give a lot of fans a renewed interest in the team to see a new coach. A lot have decided to wait and see results without much confidence in improvement. No reason now to get too invested one way or the other until the season plays out.